Los Gatos High - Silicon Valley home prices by high school districtBelow, please find the charts indicating Silicon Valley home prices by high school district for transactions closed in December 2016 for condos and townhomes first, and later also for single family homes.  The vast majority of Silicon Valley is found within Santa Clara County and San Mateo County, with small portions also in Santa Cruz County and Alameda County.  Alameda County is not part of the local MLS, so unfortunately I don’t have that data to share.  The data presented here is courtesy of my brokerage, Sereno Group.

Silicon Valley home prices by high school district: a few words of caution

If you only glance at the median sale price, you may be confused about the most expensive Silicon Valley places in which to live for the condominium or townhouse buyer.  For instance, in Santa Clara County, the Los Gatos-Saratoga Joint Union High School District has a median sale price of $1,4 85,000.  At first view, this seems to be the most expensive part of the county.  But please note that the average square footage is 1910.  Now look at Palo Alto Unified, with a median sale price of $1,260,000 – but an average square footage of just 1313.    The price per square foot, though, correctly pegs the pain value of home buying in Silicon Valley as PA Unified comes in at a whopping $1,014 per square foot.  (More disclaimers: large homes sell for much less than smaller ones on a price per sf basis, so this is more helpful when the average square footage is similar.)

Also, please note that the high school district boundaries do not neatly follow those of city, town, zip code, or any other boundary. It’s sloppy at best.  Campbell Union High School District covers not only Campbell, but parts of San Jose, Los Gatos, Saratoga, and Monte Sereno.   The Los Gatos-Saratoga Joint Union High School District encompasses parts of Los Gatos, Saratoga, Monte Sereno, the Los Gatos Mountains and even a sliver of the Almaden Valley in San Jose.

Condos and townhomes – prices by high school district

San Mateo County and Santa Clara County home prices by high school distirct

San Mateo County and Santa Clara County home prices by high school distirct

Santa Cruz County has some Silicon Valley jobs and a strong number of residents who work in tech on the other side of “the hill”. Studying these home values, you can imagine why some locals are willing to commute across the Santa Cruz Mountains. It is much more affordable.

Santa Cruz County home prices by high school district

Santa Cruz County home prices by high school district

Next, the same data but for single family  homes .

Single family homes pricing by high school district in San Mateo County and Santa Clara County

Single family homes pricing by high school district in San Mateo County and Santa Clara County

 Santa Cruz County single family home prices by high school district

Santa Cruz County single family home prices by high school district

Interested in buying or selling anywhere in these counties?  Please call or email me today!

 

Related reading:
Cambrian Months of Inventory (by elementary school district)
Saratoga, CA real estate market update (with info by price point and high school district)
Los Gatos real estate market trends by price point and high school district (on the Live in Los Gatos blog)
Learn more about what homes cost in Silicon Valley on the Move2SiliconValley blog

View from a high rise in downtown San Jose, looking east - Autumn 2011San Jose is the biggest city in Silicon Valley (and considers itself to be the Capital of Silicon Valley), is the tenth largest city in the United States of America with over 1 million in population, and it has a very large footprint – approximately 180 square miles. Because of the size, it isn’t surprising that many distinct neighborhoods exist within the city. In my blog you can find descriptions and outlines of these districts or neighborhoods. You can also find market analysis dedicated to different regions of San Jose. Because the areas are so different, the market in separate sectors of the city can change dramatically from one area to the next. If you are looking for a home in Silicon Valley, it is best to consider San Jose by its neighborhoods rather than as a whole to understand the market. Nonetheless, looking at the big picture can often give you a general taste for the market. Currently, it’s a steady sellers market.

Below you will find the Altos Research Charts, a live feed of data on the markets in San Jose. You will also find the RE Report, charts with statistics comparing sales in the last month and comparing them month-over-month and year-over-year. These are both the usual tools I use to gauge a market. Directly below are links to the market analysis of specific neighborhoods in San Jose. Some of these, where I work the most, are updated monthly, and others are updated every few months.

Altos Charts for San Jose as a Whole – automatically updated each week – single family homes

First, the basic charts for single family homes or houses. FYI, Altos uses LIST prices. The RE Report further down uses SOLD prices (which is part of the reason why I utilize both).

List prices of single family homes / houses by price quartile:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Average days on market of listed homes (houses) by pricing tier:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Inventory levels for the last 3 years for houses for sale in San Jose:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Altos Research charts for the condomium and townhouse market in San Jose – automatically updated each week

Condominium and townhouse LIST prices by quartile: Continue reading

The Santa Clara Women's Club http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The Santa Clara Women’s Club (old adobe house)
http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The real estate market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is a strong sellers market still. Prices are up from a year ago, and inventory can’t keep up with demand. Below there are charts for the activities over the last few months. Low inventory from earlier in the year and continuous low inventory around the rest of the Valley means there is still a much greater demand to fill than is available. This is clear in the sales price vs list price, which has risen to 104.9% from a consistent 103%, and the speed of market turnover (how long a house is on the market) which has remained low, usually under a month, as far back as we can see on these charts. Further in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.

Here’s a glance at the single family home statistics and trends for closings and listings for last month – updated each month on about the 5th – 10th on my RE Report site for realty stats & trends in Santa Clara:

How's The MarketInterested in buying a rental property?  Perhaps you were thinking that a 20% rental property down payment would do the trick to get you started as a real estate investor?  That may work in some places. In most of the U.S., though, you’ll need 30% down to be “cash flow neutral”, meaning that you aren’t losing money each month.  In pricey Silicon Valley, though, often it takes more than a 40% down payment on an investment property just to break even.

Today a friend and past client asked me exactly this question.  The investment property in mind, a townhouse,  would pull in a monthly rent of about $2600 to $2800 when occupied. (Remember, you have to also factor in at least some vacancy rate.)  The list price for this townhouse is about $650,000. (Side note:  with a condo or townhouse,  insurance coverage is probably going to be a lot less costly than with a single family home.  The estimates below are for a townhome.)

Where do you think the cash flow neutral or break even point would be in terms of the down payment?    That question is today’s case study.  Have a look at the various scenarios of  20% down, 30% down,40% down and 50% down:

Investment property down payment needed to be cash flow neutral

If my calculations are correct, you really need to put about 50% down to buy this particular Santa Clara County townhome and have it support itself.

Is that a good deal?  Not really. At least not if your main focus is cash flow.

There are other places in the country where you can put a lot less down and break even or have a positive cash flow.

Of course, cash flow is one motivator.  Another, though, is appreciation.  Depending on your own goals, you may be far more interested in appreciation than cash flow.  If that’s the case,  Silicon Valley may be exactly what  you’re looking for as an investment buyer.  Those places where the down payment can be smaller may not have the same upside potential with appreciation as we have here in the San Jose area, or the San Francisco Bay Area as a whole.

Interested in becoming a real estate investor? Have a good down payment saved?  Please call or email me and we can chat.  If Silicon Valley isn’t the right place for you to make your real estate investment, I can introduce you to wonderful Realtors in other areas where the numbers may be more favorable.

 

See also: Buy a Los Gatos home or real estate investment property

How is the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market? Here are the numbers, but what do those numbers mean? The sales vs list price remains over 100% and the average days on market have risen to 35 days. Campbell is still in a seller’s market, despite a general cooling.

Further down in this article, we’ll utilize the graphs from Altos Research, which uses list prices, and check out the trends in pricing by quartile in this zip code (meaning 4 groups based on the pricing tier from least to most expensive). Campbell condominiums and townhomes will be considered as well. And finally, a list of homes for sale in Campbell will be found at the bottom of the post.

First, here are some quick stats, care of my RE Report for Campbell:

What about the Campbell CA condo market?

Continue reading

Cambrian Park Plaza SignThe months of inventory for any part of the real estate market can vary, depending on many factors, including age of home, house size, lot size, and school district, whether or not there’s a pool, and many other things. It can be very useful to understand this metric when selling a Silicon Valley home. I’ve done market numbers crunching tied to the specific characteristics of a property (say, small yard with pool or big yard with no pool) to find the impact of those characteristics on the probability that a home will sell – or how fast.

The Cambrian area of San Jose is a very “hot market” overall, but it can be confusing to know how hot it really is, just like the rest of Santa Clara County, because there are multiple school districts – and schools are probably the number one driver of home values in this highly educated valley.

An explanation of “months of inventory”

What does “months of inventory” mean? This figure references how long it would take to sell a property if homes continued to sell and close at the current pace with no new inventory coming on the market. A good analogy is to consider a bathtub which drains. If you add no new water to the tub, how long will it take to empty out?

The months of inventory is sometimes called the absorption rate. The question is simple: how long will it take for the current inventory of homes for sale to get absorbed by the home buyers purchasing them? It doesn’t have to be calculated by months. It could be in days, weeks, or years. But months is probably most common.

The Cambrian area of San Jose’s months of inventory as a whole, and in one price point

Cambrian was once an enormous zone of the Santa Clara Valley. Today we mostly think of it as within San Jose in the 95124 and 95118 zip codes. Some of it it adjacent to Campbell – a very tiny sliver is IN Campbell, and a tinier still area is in San Jose and is under the Campbell School Union District. Most of this area is in one of three elementary school districts: Cambrian, Union, or San Jose Unified.

Here’s the breakdown – first, for ALL of Cambrian (MLS area 14 for my Realtor readers) that’s within the City of San Jose and second, by elementary school district. The area for Campbell Elementary is so small that the numbers are not significant (no offense to the Campbell school residents). It can just jump around too much to be helpful, and often gives us no usable data. Please have a look:

I highlighted the San Jose Unified and Union Elementary School Districts in both charts. Aside from Campbell, which has numbers too small to register a MOI, these are the hottest tickets in the district.

The message I’d like to convey is this: you can read about information for your part of Silicon Valley, or your city or zip code, but it’s not until you drill things down to an area that closely matches your own home will you have a better sense of your own home’s “real estate marker.” It’s never “how is the market?” so much as “how’s the market for YOUR home – or the one you want to buy?”

If you were only tracking Cambrian, you might see 0.2 months of inventory. That’s a lightning fast seller’s market. But it’s not nearly as good if you’re selling in the area with Cambrian Elementary Schools. There, you’re looking at closer to 1 month of inventory for homes around $1 million, while the same price point with Union Schools is a blazing 0.2 of a month, or about 6 days – as opposed to 30!

Years ago, I had a Willow Glen listing where the whole back yard was the pool. I did a study on the months of inventory and learned that pools in properties with that lot size took substantially more time to be absorbed. Likewise, I had a Los Gatos estate property on an acre of land, and the reverse was also true: the months of inventory showed that large lots on $2 million and up homes for sale did not sell nearly as well without a pool.

The math is simple: using the same criteria, divide the number of active listings by those of homes sold in the last 30 days. The criteria can be anything you like – a property’s size, location, number of bathrooms, price, age, etc. Often I include approximately the same home and lot size together with the school district. That usually provides much more accurate info on “how’s the market” as compared to just getting it by zip code alone.

If you are looking to buy or sell a home in Cambrian, or anywhere in San Jose or Santa Clara County, this kind of information is really important. It is not hard to do, but very few real estate agents will provide this information before you list or before you make the final determination on the list price of your home.

Looking for a good Silicon Valley Realtor who will get you that extra data? Please call or email me. I would love to chat to see about possibly working together.

Buying a home in Silicon Valley is seldom easy, but right now, it’s nearly impossible with Santa Clara County’s critically low housing inventory.  With rising interest rates getting folks off the fence and strong job growth in the San Jose area, there are many more home buyers than home sellers.   While this isn’t unusual, the severity of the problem certainly is extreme.    How bad is it?  Here’s a visual cue dating from January 2003 to December 2016 which indicates that last month’s inventory of single family homes for sale in Santa Clara County is the lowest we’ve had since January 2003 (that’s how far back MLSListings.com shows them).  Perhaps much longer.

 

2017-1-3 Inventory of Single Family Homes in Santa Clara County

It’s all about supply and demand.  Look at the shortage of supply!   Below is an alternate presentation of the same information but as a spread sheet format. I like this better because you can skim all of any particular month, such as December, and see how the most recent one compares to the same month in prior years.  December 2016 had just 515 houses and duet homes on the market.  The year before it was 834, which is historically low, but not nearly as dire as the current numbers. Santa Clara County’s critically low housing inventory is at historic lows!

 Santa Clara County's critically low housing inventory

Santa Clara County’s critically low housing inventory

 

This is precisely why it is so hard to buy a home in San Jose, Los Gatos, Campbell, Saratoga, or anywhere in Silicon Valley today.  Has it improved since the inventory was measured by the MLS?  No, it hasn’t.  It was 452 as of January 1st and 450 today, on the 3rd!!  This is sort of like “inventory limbo” – how low can you go?

How does this impact you?

Many long time residents may recall that we have had a shortage for a few years here.  In January 2012, I wrote about it here: Why is it so hard to buy Silicon Valley real estate right now?  Compared to the recession that had just ended, inventory was low – I can look back now and think “wow, we had no right to complain!  We had a lot more inventory then as we do now!”  What also happened is that with the restricted inventory, home prices rose.  A lot.

If you are a renter and want to be a home buyer, you  now have two things going against you: rising interest rates and rising home prices (due to strong demand and critically low supply of homes to buy).  If you wait a year, there’s a good chance that you will lose quite a lot of buying power as interest rates continue to go up and home prices do, too.   Please check out my article on rates: How will rising interest rates impact your home buying power?  Super low inventories tend to cause rapid price appreciation, and if you aren’t careful you could be priced out of the market (either because of home prices or because of those rising interest rates).

Take heart, home buyers, often the supply of homes for sale does go lower in January before rising again in either late January or early February.  So buyers, hang on!

If you are a seller, this is great news for you as it’s very likely that your equity will be increasing with the tight inventory.  Buyer demand is good and interest rates are still very tolerable.  Don’t wait until interest rates rise to the point where it impacts home prices due to affordability.   At some point, we will hit that tipping point, and that’s when the all cash buyers really win.

The Monte Sereno real estate market is similar to Los Gatos, but distinct - Monte Sereno shares many features with Los Gatos but is a distinct cityHow is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. Last month, for instance, there were only three homes sold and one pending!

There are no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno at present. One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (a pdf online):
http://www.montesereno.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/674

Recently closed home sales in Monte Sereno

Here are the quick statistics for the closed sales in the last complete month to give a sense of how things are going with the Monte Sereno real estate market. Sales data comes from my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report. Given that the supply of homes to study is tiny, what can we tell from this data?

It’s true that an average Monte Sereno house is about $2.5 million, and often higher in the current market – a little steep for most folks! The current numbers definitely show a massive swing in price point, but this is mostly due to the minute inventory where the data is drawn from. During times like this, it’s more important to look at the trends over multiple months than to base your understanding of the market off one month, and to compare with similar, nearby markets like Los Gatos.

And a look at the data from last month for the Monte Sereno real estate market:

Continue reading to view live Altos Research charts for the real estate market in Monte Sereno, including by pricing quartile. Continue reading

Leo or Leona - the mascot of Los GatosThe Los Gatos real estate market is varied from one price point or school district to the next, but over all, this is a fairly stable period with some slight warming last month. Here are the current numbers, per my Los Gatos real estate report (click on the link for full information). The Los Gatos Mountains are a distinctly different market and as such are covered in a separate market update, updated less frequently than here, which shows live Altos charts for that area.

Los Gatos / Monte Sereno housing values and pricing trends (aka “area 16” for our MLS, zip codes 95030 and 95032)

Los Gatos/Monte Sereno Real Estate Stats At A Glance

Year-Over-Year

  • Median home prices fell by 15.6% year-over-year to $1,730,000 from $2,050,000.
  • The average home sales price dropped by 13% year-over-year to $1,949,240 from $2,239,940.
  • Home sales fell by 24.2% year-over-year to 25 from 33.
  • Active listings rose 15.4% year-over-year to 45 from 39.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.1% year-over-year to 99.0% from 99.1%.
  • The average days on market rose by 17.3% year-over-year to 50 from 43.

Compared To Last Month

  • Median home prices slipped by 13.9% to $1,730,000 from $2,010,000.
  • The average home sales price fell by 2.1% to $1,949,240 from $1,990,650.
  • Home sales up by 31.6% to 25 from 19.
  • Active listings dropped 35.7% to 45 from 70.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 1.4% to 99.0% from 100.3%.
  • The average days on market increased by 44.9% to 50 from 35.

Do you love Los Gatos, live there now or want to live there? Please also visit the Live in Los Gatos Blog!

Learn about Los Gatos neighborhoods, see photos, videos, pricing information, age of homes and much more! Get frequent Los Gatos real estate market updates, find out about local events, business, see images of the parks, historic buildings, and get to know Los Gatos even better. “Live in Los Gatos” is an award winning blog, also written by local Los Gatos Realtor and resident Mary Pope-Handy – check it out today!

Live in Los Gatos Blog

Please continue reading for info on the Los Gatos condo market, and for real estate market information on Monte Sereno. Continue reading

How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.

First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.

The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide.  Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market”.

(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)

Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts.

And for comparison, here’s the chart from last month:

This month shows a decrease in inventory while sales stay up, creating a shorter MOI – a surprising heating of the market despite general cooling around the bay area. The market just won’t let up! Just over 1 overall months of inventory means Saratoga is a fiery hot sellers market, but by comparing across school districts you can see how different each area’s individual market can be.

 

Continue reading

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Mary Pope-Handy

Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
Silicon Valley:
Santa Clara County,
San Mateo County, and
Santa Cruz County.
:
Special focus on:
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Saratoga, Campbell,
Almaden Valley,
Cambrian Park.

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Top 25 real estate blogs 2016
2016: Personal Income's list of top 25 real estate blogs.


Best Realtor blog award
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The 2009 Sellsius list of top 12 women real estate bloggers
2009: Sellsius list of top
12 women real estate bloggers


Mary Pope-Handy's Live in Los Gatos blog won the 2007 Project Blogger contest, sponsored by Inman News and Active Rain

2007: Mary Pope-Handy and Frances Flynn Thorsen win the Project Blogger Contest for Mary's Live in Los Gatos blog. The contest was sponsored by
Active Rain and Inman News.


Non blog award


Best real estate agent in Silicon Valley from the San Jose Mercury News poll of readers in 2011
"Best real estate agent
in Silicon Valley"

2011 readers' poll,
San Jose Mercury News

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