In Almaden Valley, like in other parts of San Jose and Silicon Valley, some parts of “the market” are hotter than  others.  The real estate sweet spot appears to be homes priced in either the entry level or move-up markets – but things cool considerably as the homes become more elegant, grand and luxurious.  (This appears to be true across all of Santa Clara County: the most affordable homes are still the hottest segment of the realty market.)

Months of Inventory in Almaden Valley

Here’s how the current inventory and sales breaks down, together with the months of inventory, for the Almaden Valley part of San Jose (95120 zip code). Info from MLS Listings deemed accurate but not guaranteed. The “closed” column represents homes closed (houses & duet homes) in the last month.

Almaden Houses & Duet Homes For Sale Closed Months of Inventory
$900,000 and under 33 21 1.57
$900,000 – $1,200,000 29 22 1.32
1,200,000- $1,500,000 20 2 10
1,500,000- $2,000,000 10 1 10
$2,000,000 and up 10 0

As you can see, up to about $1,200,000 it’s a very strong seller’s market with less than 2 months of inventory. But beyond that price point, it’s suddenly a completely different market and is instead a very strong buyer’s market.

What about distressed property sales in Almaden?

There are almost no bank owned properties currently for sale or recently closed in Almaden – just 1 in the entry level price band which is currently listed for sale.

There are not many short sales in Almaden: right now just 5 for sale: 3 in the lowest of these five price groups, 1 in the 2nd lowest and one in the highest. Closings among short sales are also few in number: 2 in the lowest price point and one in the second lowest.  The absorption rate or months of inventory among short sales was 1.5 in the lowest price point and 1 month in the second lowest. No closings among higher priced homes that were also short sales in the last month.

How About Home Prices in Almaden?

Altos Research (to which I have a subscription) has a wonderful system of charts which can display the market data in a wide variety of ways, but please be aware that they track list prices, not sold prices.

Here’s a look at the Median List Price of all Almaden Valley houses & duet homes over the last three years:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Notice all those dips? Now look at the dates – they all occur in January or in winter. It’s very consistent. So is the upswing in prices which follows. So to a degree, the up & down is somewhat predicatble or “seasonal”. We tend to see the lowest prices in winter – that’s true for most of Silicon Valley. It’s just that normally – if you were to track 30 years or so – you’d see that most of the time the overall movement in price is up, rather than down. It looks like the downward trend may be getting reversed, but it will take more time and data to confirm that.

Next, the same data but broken down into four equal price points or quartiles.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Taken together, the dips seem a little milder than might be accurate. Here’s just the top tier, median list price in Almaden:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Upper-middle tier:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Lower-middle tier:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And finally, the bottom tier:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Taken by themselves, the median list prices seem to be pretty negative news, though there’s now an “uptick” in progress.

Almaden Valley Days on Market

If we look at the days on market (which is a helpful number, but not as strong as the absorption rate), we see the drama that is our market change in much of the Almaden area. This next chart displays all price quartiles combined.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

This is much more than a little reversal or a seasonally predicted trend. Let’s see how it plays out if we break down the quartiles separately:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

It looks a bit chaotic, but please note that all four price groups are displaying the same change in the last few monthsa very sudden, steep drop in the days on market or DOM. You may also be able to make out that the DOM tends to peak each year in the winter season. This part is normal and seasonally expected. What’s not normal is the “falling off the cliff” kind of change which is being experienced in all price points.

Inventory of Almaden Valley Homes for Sale

Almaden inventory of homes for sale, too, is a little reminiscent of the Giant Dipper over at the Boardwalk in Santa Cruz – lots of steep ups and downs over the last 3 years:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Each of the four quartiles has identical inventory patterns, so it is not helpful to break this one down by group.

Market Action Index in Almaden

Altos has its own proprietary “Market Action Index” by which they note if the market is more in the buyer’s or seller’s favor. For the Altos MAI, 30 is the cutoff – below that is a buyer’s market, and above that is a seller’s market. Here’s the MAI for all price points combined or “Almaden as a whole”

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

As a group (above), it’s very much a buyer’s market. But how about by price quartile?

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Still a buyer’s market, but better for the less expensive homes, just as we saw when viewing the absorption rate or months of inventory at the beginning of this post. It might be clearer if we looked at a smaller window of time. Let’s see just the last 6 months:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Interesting that the upper middle (2nd from top) had been the “best” and has now fallen to second worst position. The very worst is reserved for the most expensive homes, which we also saw with the absorption rates.

Of all four price points, the lowest (or most affordable) is the one that seems to be improving the most. So we’ll see if this continues and it pushes through to hit the number where Altos would (also) call it a seller’s market. Based on the absorption rates shared at the beginning of this post, I would say that it already is a seller’s market in the bottom price points of the Almaden Valley real estate market. Conversely, the luxury home market in Almaden is taking a beating right now.

Get Historical Data on the Almaden Valley Realty Market

Want more information, with historical data on the Almaden Valley real estate market trends and statistics? Or data on the condominium & townhouse market in Almaden?  Please visit my Real Estate Report page for Almaden Valley homes, which is automatically updated monthly and contains monthly, quarterly and annual info dating back to 2001.

Find Almaden Valley Homes for Sale Now

What’s on the market or listed for sale in Almaden Valley right now?  Do a “real time” search that reqires no registration!

Search Almaden Valley Homes for Sale

Additionally, you may also search for homes by map.  This may appeal to you more if you want to be near a particular school, park, the community center, or any other landmark in 95120.

Search Almaden real estate for sale by map

If you search by map, the link above will pull up most or all of San Jose.  Almaden will be in the lower right corner of the map.

Just browsing? You can also view a list of homes for sale by price range
Almaden Valley Homes under $1,000,000
Almaden Valley Homes between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000
Almaden Valley Homes $2,000,000 and up

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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


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