How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a hot “seller’s market” overall.  But look closer and you can see there are clear market micro-climates.  Prices are better for sellers, while buyers struggle with higher prices and less homes to choose from.

Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale

Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory. What’s happening?

First, let’s see what “usually” happens in the 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale. Here’s a look at the last 10 years (all available history), care of Altos Research:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Here you can see that inventory has regular peaks and dips. Inventory tends to rise early each year and peak in mid to late summer. After the peak is a decline through autumn and winter with the lowest point in the coldest part of the year before turning around again before spring.

Now let’s look up close at just the last 3 years.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

As usual, our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later – at least, that happened until 2017. This year, inventory stayed up longer than usual, not going as low in winter as expected, but instead fell later, when the market is usually heating up! Rather than rising to a peak again in summer, it looks like inventory is continuing to drop or at least remain extraordinarily low. We have hit the bottom (hopefully), but inventory won’t necessarily increase as the year progresses, if seasonal trends are followed. Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.

For sellers this can be an excellent opportunity to go on the market – homes are seeing more bids and higher prices than average. Buyers, however, have it worse than ever.

The impact on sales is not hard to predict: the available inventory is being bought up. Often the ratio of pending sales to available properties runs anywhere from about 50% to 70% (so 1 pending for every 2 available = 50%). Right now, though, the ratio is 84%.  Buyers still have to buy.  (So sellers, the odds are better for selling now as opposed to when there’s more inventory.)

How are the Days on Market in 95120?

Here’s a view of the turnover for all price points in Almaden over the last 3 years combined:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Next, one year with the four price quartiles separated out. See how much longer it takes to sell a “luxury home” than “entry level” in this part of San Jose? Still, all tiers are showing fairly level, low turnover for the last few months.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

What about list prices of Almaden homes for sale?

The median list price is increasing, but more slowly than earlier in the year. This means that it’ll be a little easier to predict what a home will go for on market at this time, but it’ll definitely be more than a year ago.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And here’s the data by price quartile across all of Almaden for the last year:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Remember, please, that it may vary if you’re in a more or less desirable area, have more or less land, the house is more or less remodeled, etc. – these are general trends!

Looking closer in time, let’s have a peek at the last 30 days:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

It’s pretty flat across price points right now.

Median List Price Per Square Feet in San Jose 95120

Anyone buying now will get significantly less house for the money than a few years ago:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Here’s a look at the last year by price quartile. Can you guess it’s been a crazy market? :

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Finally, if interested, you can see how this area compares to others nearby – if you like what you see, you can sign up to get updated weekly.




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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
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Santa Clara County,
San Mateo County, and
Santa Cruz County.
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2007: Mary Pope-Handy and Frances Flynn Thorsen win the Project Blogger Contest for Mary's Live in Los Gatos blog. The contest was sponsored by
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