Mary Pope-Handy

Silicon Valley Realtor, selling homes in Los Gatos, Saratoga, San Jose, and nearby since 1993. Prolific blogger with a network of site.

Like most of Santa Clara County, the wild appreciation of the last 5 to 6 years in Blossom Valley seems to now be slowing, and maybe flattening.  It is possible that we have hit the “peak of the market”, but it’s also possible that this is simply a seasonal pattern. Often in late spring to early summer, we see inventory levels rise while buyers pull back. This can cause home sale prices to quite appreciating, and in some years, prices decline just a little bit. In 2017, it seemed that the normal patterns simply broke, as late in the year – November and December – buying was at a feverish pitch normally reserved for March.

About Blossom Valley

The Blossom Valley area of San Jose is on the south end of the city and covers the 95123 and 95136 zip codes. For our MLS, it’s “area 12.” A more affordable section of Silicon Valley, Blossom Valley has much to offer in addition to more reasonable housing prices. Many areas enjoy views of the Santa Teresa Foothills or the Communications Hill knolls or even the coastal foothills in the distance, as with the photo below. One corner of it sits alongside beautiful Almaden Lake, too. One corner is located at the crossroads of Highways 85 and 87, making it an easy commute destination for those working in downtown San Jose. And there’s an abundance of shopping and dining opportunities.

Blossom Valley from the Church on the Hill

Much more could be written, but let’s now instead turn to the real estate market there.

First, “live,” automatically updating Altos Charts for San Jose 95123 and 95136 and single family homes (houses and duet homes). These use list prices, not sales prices.

The median list price of both 95123 and 95136, all prices, single family homes (houses and duet homes, if there are any).

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Next, the median list price for just the San Jose 95123 area of Blossom Valley, and separated by price quartile:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And next, the median list price of just San Jose 95136 by price quartile:

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Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose - the proximity of parks will impact the Santa Teresa real estate market for that neighborhood

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market?  The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable but offers lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time, making the area more desirable.These positives seem to be helping that area to hold its value pretty well. Home prices are still up about 15% year over year. Prices popped back up a little bit this month, so it’s not a straight downward trend in Santa Teresa, as it is in many other parts of the valley.

Here’s quick view of the real estate statistic and trends for just the Santa Teresa area’s single family homes (houses / duet homes):

Santa Teresa real estate market stats & trends

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,005,000 (+0.8%) $997,500 $875,000 (+14.9%)
Average Price $1,080,650 (+3.5%) $1,044,290 $896,360 (+20.6%)
No. of Sales 19 (-20.8%) 24 25 (-24.0%)
Pending 18 (-21.7%) 23 23 (-21.7%)
Active 32 (+39.1%) 23 (+540.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.2% (-5.1%) 106.6% 105.2% (-3.9%)
Days on Market 25 (+49.5%) 17 12 (+108.0%)
Days of Inventory 51 (+75.7%) 29 (+742.1%)

 

And last month:

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $997,500 (-9.4%) $1,100,500 $901,000 (+10.7%)
Average Price $1,044,290 (-4.8%) $1,096,510 $904,667 (+15.4%)
No. of Sales 24 (-40.0%) 40 27 (-11.1%)
Pending 23 (-20.7%) 29 20 (+15.0%)
Active 23 (-4.2%) 24 12 (+91.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 106.6% (-1.0%) 107.7% 104.9% (+1.6%)
Days on Market 17 (+8.4%) 15 13 (+29.8%)
Days of Inventory 29 (+65.2%) 17 13 (+115.6%)

 

And the month before:

You can read the Santa Teresa area real estate market report at this link if you’d like more details and statistical analysis. This particular page goes to the report for houses, but you can navigate home type to see condos/townhomes or any other area in San Jose, Santa Clara County, San Mateo County, or Santa Cruz County.

 Also, please note that zip codes don’t always relate to the districts. Zip code 95138 is a great example of that as part of it is in Santa Teresa and part in Evergreen (pricey and upscale Silver Creek). Pull up the averages for 95138 and you might think all the homes are selling for around $1.4 million. But if you look in the charming but more affordable Silver Leaf area of the same zip code, you’ll find the cost half as much – or less! So too with 95123 (though less dramatic) as about half of that is in Blossom Valley and part in Santa Teresa.
It’s good to do a lot of research, but beware the “easy answers” of price per square foot or average sales price per zip code. Often your best help will come from a highly experienced real estate professional who’s willing to help you to crunch the numbers for the Santa Teresa real estate market (boring grunt work but not actually difficult).
And don’t forget the condo market! This can be even more difficult to pin down because of the small amount of data and the wide variety of values.  Overall, it’s pretty much “holding steady” right now. The days of inventory is wonky because there were very few closings in July, and an explosive number of listings (and a huge number of pendings, also). Those pendings will close soon enough, so I would suggest ignoring the days of inventory this time.
Here’s a quick look at the current Santa Teresa condo market from the RE Report data:

Trends at a Glance for Santa Teresa Condos & Townhomes

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $850,000 (-11.5%) $960,000 $688,000 (+23.5%)
Average Price $861,400 (-7.7%) $933,333 $653,857 (+31.7%)
No. of Sales (+66.7%) 3 (-28.6%)
Pending 16 (+60.0%) 10 16 (0.0%)
Active 11 (-21.4%) 14 (+450.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.6% (-8.7%) 112.4% 104.1% (-1.5%)
Days on Market (+52.0%) 5 (-6.7%)
Days of Inventory 66 (-52.9%) 140 (+670.0%)

 

And last month:

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $960,000 (+15.0%) $835,000 $748,942 (+28.2%)
Average Price $933,333 (+8.9%) $857,444 $700,814 (+33.2%)
No. of Sales (-66.7%) 9 12 (-75.0%)
Pending 10 (+233.3%) 3 13 (-23.1%)
Active 14 (+133.3%) 6 (+180.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 112.4% (+6.6%) 105.4% 102.6% (+9.6%)
Days on Market (-66.4%) 15 22 (-76.9%)
Days of Inventory 140 (+624.1%) 19 13 (+1,020.0%)

 

Disclaimers made, here are some Altos Research numbers for the four Santa Teresa zip codes:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

You’ll note that one of the four zips is super high – this is 95138, which has a number of homes in The Ranch, a subdivision in Evergreen near Silver Creek. The part of 95138 which is in Santa Teresa is considerably more affordable, well under $1 million in the vast majority of cases. So let’s take that one out so we can get a better feel for the true pricing of Santa Teresa homes.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Here two of the zip codes seem to be on track with each other, but 95123 is going at a different pace. Half of that area is Blossom Valley, which tends to be a stronger market. Regardless, it would seem that overall, the median list price of homes for sale in Santa Teresa has gone from the mid 700 thousands to the mid 800 thousands over the last year, now hanging out close to the 900 mark. And that’s about what I have seen, anecdotally, too.

Santa Teresa homes for sale

Interested in buying a house, townhouse or condominium in the Santa Teresa area? Below, please check out a list of available properties, listed in order of most recently added to the MLS first. Or better yet, call or email me to discuss working together!

 

  1. 3 beds, 4 baths
    Home size: 1,901 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,206 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,165 sq ft
    Lot size: 2,500 sqft
  3. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,060 sq ft
    Lot size: 8,838 sqft
  4. 2 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 920 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,197 sqft
  5. 2 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,392 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,781 sqft

See all Real estate in the Santa Teresa community.
(all data current as of 9/22/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Related Reading:

The Heintz farmhouse in the Heritage Grove neighborhoodThe Heritage Grove neighborhood in Los Gatos had an interesting beginning. An old apricot orchard used to line Blossom Hill Road between Union and Leigh Avenues until the 1990s. The former owners, Ralph and Sophie Heintz, lived there in their farmhouse until their deaths, at which time the property was willed to the University of California at Berkeley for eye research.

Sophie and Ralph were interesting people. He ran a small train on their property and was an inventor. She was a ham radio operator.

In 1998, the Heintz land (and house etc.) was sold to Summerhill Homes and a portion developed as housing by Summerhill. A few of the homes higher up in the neighborhood were built by different builders.  That Los Gatos neighborhood is now called Heritage Grove. A strip of trees was planted along Blossom Hill Road, reminiscent of the history of the area.  A wonderfully large section of land was made a permanent open space, now known as the Heintz Open Space Preserve.  This open space connects directly with Belgatos Park, which also connects with the Santa Rosa Open Space Preserve. So the network of trails is quite extensive. (Link to Town of Los Gatos page with pdf files of these three trail maps. Link to Google Maps map of Blossom Hill Trails, drawn by Jim Handy.)

In 2015, I did a video drive through of the Heritage Grove neighborhood. Please take a look:

The Heintz’s big, old farmhouse has been renovated and is being lived in.  Ralph Heintz’s old workshop, the Ramohs Laboratory, is preserved with signs explaining the history of the place nearby.

Summerhill Homes did a nice job of developing the land to keep some of the historic character.  Please enjoy the slideshow below to get a feel for the area…. This scenic spot is well worth a visit: enjoy!

Where is the Heritage Grove neighborhood?

Map of Heritage Grove area

Heritage Grove is a neighborhood in east Los Gatos off Blossom Hill Road near Union Avenue

There are only five streets that make up Heritage Grove:  Regent Drive, Regent Court, Ayala Court, Ramohs Way, and Heintz Court. Regent Drive is a long loop road while the rest of the streets are quite short, so the vast majority of Heritage Grove homes are on Regent Drive.

How big are Heritage Grove homes and lots?

The size of the 44 houses and lots within Heritage Grove varies a bit, as you might expect in any subdivision, but additionally there’s the historic Heintz farmhouse.

The farmhouse is appx 4100 square feet and sits on 3/4 of an acre (31,000 sf lot). There are 2 other homes over 4,000 SF also. Most are between 3,000 and 4,000 SF, but 4 houses are 2695 square feet, and two others are appx 2950 SF.

Parcels of land may be as small as 10,000 SF (appx 1/4 acre) to as large as 25,000 SF (a little more than a half acre).

Photo slideshow of the Heritage Grove neighborhood:

2 Heritage Grove sign 2 framed3 Hertigage Grove Home near entrance4 Bees humming closeup5 Street View Improved6 Blossoming Hills of Los Gatos7 Ramohs Lab8 Ramohs Laboratory9 Heintz farmhouse10 Another neighborhood view11 Flowering Tree12 Another home13 Heintz Open Space sign14 Heintz Open Space Entrance15 Valley View

What does it cost to buy a home in the Heritage Grove neighborhood?

There are a lot of variables here!

Potential ingredients to make a home more affordable would be smaller home, smaller lot, proximity to Blossom Hill Road, a backyard or home with another higher up (and “looking in” – a lack of privacy).

Raising the value of the home would be things like a view, having open space or a large lot adjacent (less crowded feeling), being further into the development, having a larger home, larger lot, three car garage.

Historically, prices have gone from over $1,000,000 to under $2,500,000. This is a low turnover neighborhood, and nothing has sold in there too recently, but it’s safe to say that a huge home on a large lot with a view would likely go into the low 3 millions.

Other items of note:

Regent Drive rises as it gets away from Blossom Hill Road; many of the homes nearest to the Heintz Open Space Preserve enjoy nice views of Santa Clara County and downtown San Jose in the distance.

Heritage Grove is a great commute location as it’s close to Union Avenue, which provides fast access to highway 85.

It’s also close to shopping – the Downing Oaks Center, which includes a Safeway, a local (non chain) coffee house, a restaurant, and other services, is less than a mile away.

Heritage Grove is served by the Union School District and the Campbell Union High School District.  Schools are Alta Vista or Noddin Elementary,  Union Middle School, and Leigh High School.

If there are any Heritage Grove homes available, they will be listed here. Below that list, please find properties for sale in Los Gatos with the 95032 zip code.

  1. 4 beds, 4 baths
    Home size: 3,986 sq ft
    Lot size: 27,603 sqft
    Year built: 2002

See all Heritage Grove subdivision in Los Gatos, California Real Estate.
(all data current as of 9/22/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

  1. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,899 sq ft
    Lot size: 2,317 sqft
    Year built: 2008
  2. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,388 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,200 sqft
    Year built: 1958
  3. 2 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,050 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,058 sqft
    Year built: 1963
  4. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,038 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,954 sqft
    Year built: 1952
  5. 5 beds, 4 baths
    Home size: 2,804 sq ft
    Lot size: 13,464 sqft
    Year built: 1955
  6. 4 beds, 4 baths
    Home size: 3,986 sq ft
    Lot size: 27,603 sqft
    Year built: 2002
  7. 5 beds, 5 baths
    Home size: 4,435 sq ft
    Lot size: 8,054 sqft
    Year built: 2006
  8. 2 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,463 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,790 sqft
    Year built: 1969
  9. 2 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,409 sq ft
    Lot size: 2,892 sqft
    Year built: 1977
  10. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,483 sq ft
    Lot size: 9,827 sqft
    Year built: 1968

See all Los Gatos homes for sale 95032.
(all data current as of 9/22/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 

Related reading:

Belwood, Belgatos & Surmont neighborhood (adjacent on the east – article on the Live in Los Gatos blog)

Del Oro neighborhood of Cambrian on the Los Gatos border (almost directly across the street)

Strathmore neighborhood (close by)

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends & Statistics (updated monthly)

Mary Pope-Handy’s YouTube channel with Los Gatos videos

 

Almaden Valley homes for sale and real estate market conditionsThe Almaden Valley real estate market is in a declining market month over month, but is still up year over year. This is true for most of Santa Clara County.

This is likely a great “buying opportunity” for those home buyers who were feeling priced out of the market a few months ago. Whether it is a seasonal blip or the beginning of a correction is impossible to know at this time.

Please note that multiple offers are still the norm, as are overbids – but prices are simply lower than in the past. Single family homes are still selling on average at 102.7%, so bear that in mind. To give a sense of the shifting market conditions, please have a look at this graph. Again, market conditions are represented here, not price! (Please click to enlarge.) It is still a seller’s market, but it is moving toward the buyer’s favor now. It will have to go a bit more before it could become a buyer’s market. Will it do that? We have seen similar numbers in recent years that never did dip below. We just have to watch it to see how it unfolds.

2018-9-10 Almaden Market conditions

Please find the current statistics for single family homes (houses & duet homes) from my Almaden Valley real estate report (click on link for more info).

Almaden Valley San Jose 95120 Real Estate Statistics At A Glance

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,536,000 (-2.3%) $1,572,500 $1,462,500 (+5.0%)
Average Price $1,537,350 (-10.1%) $1,709,550 $1,574,170 (-2.3%)
No. of Sales 20 (-37.5%) 32 24 (-16.7%)
Pending 28 (+21.7%) 23 24 (+16.7%)
Active 34 (-10.5%) 38 21 (+61.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.7% (-2.1%) 104.9% 107.0% (-4.0%)
Days on Market 16 (+15.6%) 14 12 (+32.7%)
Days of Inventory 51 (+43.2%) 36 26 (+94.3%)

 

And the month before:

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,572,500 (-10.1%) $1,750,000 $1,427,500 (+10.2%)
Average Price $1,709,550 (-10.6%) $1,911,940 $1,520,940 (+12.4%)
No. of Sales 32 (-17.9%) 39 32 (0.0%)
Pending 23 (-25.8%) 31 27 (-14.8%)
Active 38 (+52.0%) 25 24 (+58.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.9% (+0.3%) 104.5% 102.6% (+2.3%)
Days on Market 14 (-11.8%) 16 18 (-20.3%)
Days of Inventory 36 (+91.6%) 19 23 (+58.3%)

 

 

Altos Research charts for houses in Almaden (San Jose 95120)

Please note that Altos Research uses list prices of Almaden Valley homes for sale, not sold prices.

An overview:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in
SAN JOSE, CA 95120 as of September 14, 2018
Median List Price:$1,641,838Average List Price:$1,878,045
Total Inventory:34Price per Square Foot:$694
Average Home Size:2,508Median Lot Size:8,994
Average # Beds:4.12Average # Baths:3.24
Homes Absorbed:7Newly Listed:8
Days on Market:37Average Age:41

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

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The Milpitas real estate market is red hot, one of the hottest in Santa Clara County.  Last month, February 2018, the average sale price to list price ratio of houses or single family homes was a staggering 120.5%.  Only Sunnyvale ranked higher, at 121.5%.  The county average hit 112.4%.

Appreciation year over year is also well past “double digits” with 27.6% for the median sale price and 20.2% for the average sale price of Milpitas houses. The county average for the same period were 27.5% for the median sale price, and 25.4% for the average.

Milpitas Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance

You can always view the most current info on the Milpitas market on my RE Report (it’s updated between the 5th and 10th of each month). Like elsewhere in the valley, the Milpitas market seems to be cooling a bit. I think it is a seasonal fluctuation only, but we’ll have to watch it and see. Right now, though, it looks like a good buying opportunity may be at hand.

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,050,000 (-19.2%) $1,300,000 $1,009,000 (+4.1%)
Average Price $1,149,160 (-11.0%) $1,290,780 $1,103,980 (+4.1%)
No. of Sales 29 (+7.4%) 27 30 (-3.3%)
Pending 22 (-31.3%) 32 25 (-12.0%)
Active 41 (+17.1%) 35 (+412.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.2% (-3.1%) 108.6% 108.1% (-2.7%)
Days on Market 19 (-5.2%) 20 15 (+22.9%)
Days of Inventory 42 (+9.1%) 39 (+430.2%)

 

And last month:

 

Trends At a Glance May 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,238,890 (-4.7%) $1,300,000 $992,500 (+24.8%)
Average Price $1,291,110 (+1.6%) $1,270,460 $1,053,540 (+22.5%)
No. of Sales 23 (-8.0%) 25 32 (-28.1%)
Pending 28 (+40.0%) 20 39 (-28.2%)
Active 27 (+68.8%) 16 23 (+17.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 113.3% (0.0%) 113.3% 109.1% (+3.9%)
Days on Market 13 (+39.7%) 9 19 (-32.2%)
Days of Inventory 35 (+89.7%) 19 22 (+63.3%)

 

For comparison, here’s a lineup of the Milpitas real estate market statistics side by side with other cities and towns in Santa Clara County. As you can see, prices are a little lower than the county averages, but the sale price to list price ratio is a bit higher.

 

Santa Clara County single family home resale statistics Aug 2018 sales

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How is the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market?  Campbell is in a fairly strong seller’s market, but like the rest of the county, is in a period of cooling off in terms of pricing, numbers of offers, and sale price to list price ratio. 

If you’re selling, perhaps a few months ago, you’d have gotten 6 or 8 offers on your well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced home for sale. Now, maybe it is 3 or 4 offers instead. The offers are often coming in with no contingencies, but there just aren’t as many.  The massive overbids are becoming a little less massive.

Part of this seems to be seasonal fluctuation. In my 25 years of selling homes in the Santa Clara Valley,  I have seen that in MOST years, late spring and early summer sees a flattening of the market, sometimes even a slight decline in pricing, after the peak months of January through April. Last year, that didn’t happen.

The other part may be “buyer fatigue”. Buyers have had enough with the spiraling-out-of-control prices and terms so strongly in the sellers’ favor. They are voting with their feet.

Further down in this article, we’ll utilize the graphs from Altos Research, which uses list prices, and check out the trends in pricing by quartile in this zip code (meaning 4 groups based on the pricing tier from least to most expensive). Campbell condominiums and townhomes will be considered as well. And finally, a list of homes for sale in Campbell will be found at the bottom of the post.

And now –  here are some quick stats, care of my RE Report for Campbell:

CAMPBELL real estate market trends and statistics

Still up year over year, but down month over month

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,400,000 (-3.4%) $1,450,000 $1,360,630 (+2.9%)
Average Price $1,417,320 (-9.4%) $1,563,680 $1,522,240 (-6.9%)
No. of Sales 21 (-27.6%) 29 35 (-40.0%)
Pending 19 (-17.4%) 23 25 (-24.0%)
Active 26 (-21.2%) 33 13 (+100.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.5% (-2.7%) 104.4% 106.3% (-4.5%)
Days on Market 26 (+50.4%) 17 13 (+108.4%)
Days of Inventory 37 (+8.8%) 34 11 (+233.3%)

 

And the month before

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,450,000 (-6.5%) $1,550,000 $1,275,000 (+13.7%)
Average Price $1,563,680 (-1.4%) $1,586,540 $1,357,390 (+15.2%)
No. of Sales 29 (0.0%) 29 40 (-27.5%)
Pending 23 (-11.5%) 26 33 (-30.3%)
Active 33 (+3.1%) 32 14 (+135.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.4% (-4.0%) 108.7% 106.8% (-2.3%)
Days on Market 17 (+30.9%) 13 17 (+3.6%)
Days of Inventory 34 (+6.7%) 32 11 (+225.1%)

 

What about the Campbell CA condo market?

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Leo or Leona - the mascot of Los GatosMost of the Santa Clara Valley is undergoing a cooling trend. With Los Gatos 95030 & 95032, though, it has not been a straight decline as in some areas, though the peak of the market was in March (think February sales with closings 30 days later).  Here are the current numbers, per my Los Gatos real estate report (click on the link for full information).

The Los Gatos Mountains are a distinctly different market and as such are covered in a separate market update, updated less frequently than here, but with live Altos charts for that area.

Los Gatos / Monte Sereno housing values and pricing trends (aka “area 16” for our MLS, zip codes 95030 and 95032) – month over month, it’s down 13.9%, and year over year, up 16.1%.

Los Gatos Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,230,000 (-7.5%) $2,410,000 $2,297,500 (-2.9%)
Average Price $2,699,150 (+11.3%) $2,424,220 $2,742,170 (-1.6%)
No. of Sales 27 (-12.9%) 31 32 (-15.6%)
Pending 38 (+11.8%) 34 47 (-19.1%)
Active 61 (-18.7%) 75 52 (+17.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.1% (-0.8%) 101.9% 101.1% (0.0%)
Days on Market 35 (+38.0%) 25 43 (-18.4%)
Days of Inventory 68 (-6.6%) 73 49 (+39.0%)

 

And the month before:

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,410,000 (-13.9%) $2,800,000 $2,075,000 (+16.1%)
Average Price $2,424,220 (-14.5%) $2,834,730 $2,237,580 (+8.3%)
No. of Sales 31 (-20.5%) 39 38 (-18.4%)
Pending 34 (-20.9%) 43 29 (+17.2%)
Active 75 (+8.7%) 69 68 (+10.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.9% (0.0%) 101.9% 103.7% (-1.7%)
Days on Market 25 (+39.0%) 18 24 (+4.9%)
Days of Inventory 73 (+41.5%) 51 54 (+35.2%)

 

Bel Estos Drive near Carlton and Rosswood in San Jose's Cambrian areaMy Cambrian area of San Jose Real Estate Report was recently published with the updated numbers from the closed sales last month for this part of San Jose (95124 and 95118 with a little of 95008 too). Please click on the link above to see much more information there. Those charts are below.

First, though, I want to share some info that I pulled from the MLS last night. It does appear that Cambrian home prices have come down quite a bit since the peak of pricing in March.  For home sellers wondering why their properties aren’t selling as quickly, this may be helpful. Also it’s good info for those thinking of selling their houses or condos in this second half of 2018.

The very best way to know what the market is doing is to track the same house as it sells and re-sells. However, most home owners don’t move often, so that is not helpful to us. The next best method is to find very similar properties and track them. That would be such as all condos in a large development with approximately the same floor plan / size.

Cambrian often mimics the valley as a whole pretty well, so I thought I would pull up a representative sample from a hot segment of the market to get my own sense of how things are going. I pulled starter homes with Campbell Union High School District, zip code 95124, with 1000 – 1500 SF, 3-4 bedrooms and 2+ baths.

Here are the averages from March to today (updated Sept 7, 2018):

March 2018 (10 sales)  average price per SF $1,100.53  average sale price $1,429,612
April 2018 (15 sales)     average price per SF $1,138.75  average sale price $1,417,000
May 2018 (14 sales)      average price per SF $1,076.54  average sale price $1,375,643
June 2018 (10 sales)     average price per SF   $980.64  average sale price  $1,258,550 (steepest drop from the month before)
July 2018 (12 sales)       average price per SF   $974.35  average sale price  $1,232,958
August 2018 (9 sales)    average price per SF  $899.29  average sale price $1,176,522

That is a drop in the average sale price of $253,090 over 5 months for this group, or about $50,618 per month on average (though some months it is more or less). The data here uses a fairly small pool, so it may not be accurate for all parts of Cambrian, but it is an indicator of what the market is doing overall since this is a very in-demand segment of Cambrian.

If we input this into excel and ask it to generate a forecast through December (which assumes the same rate of change, which may NOT be true), it looks like this – sellers please note, THIS IS WHAT BUYERS ARE THINKING AS THEY WAIT TO BID:

Cambrian segment forecast as of Sept 7 2018

When I plunked the data into excel, it gave a range of possible values…and of course the actual range is myriad! Where do YOU think these values will be with December’s closings (revealed in January)? As low as $871k? As high as $1 million?

Cambrian specialty search forecast as of Sept 7 2018

Now I need to remind everyone that the market is often not a straight line. Let’s stop and take a look at the county’s sales (average and median prices) to get a sense of that. Although the general trend for the last few years has been upward, please see that there are MANY drops, particularly in the second half of each year.

Santa Clara County home sales and prices

As is evident, seasonally, the market does often flatten or decline somewhat in the second half of each year. The peak is most often in spring sometime. Very often, the peak is in March (again, that means sales the month before, which is February, and that means getting your house all ready in January).  So let’s say that the market does drop at the current rate, in January 2019, this hypothetical Cambrian home would be selling at about $886,000, prior to the possible spring surge in pricing. To get the lowest price means buying in December, not buying in January, most likely. But – December also typically has the lowest inventory, so not much selection. For that reason, if you like a home now, I would suggest buying that home now. Buying a home for yourself and your family is not like buying a stock. You are going to live in it, so you will want to like it. I have seen many buyers try to time the market and end up going through December since they hated what was available, and then they got caught buying in the spring madness, and they paid more.

But who knows if prices will rebound in early 2019 or not. Who knows if prices will continue dropping this year. Some years, we have seen drops followed by rapid appreciation. Last year, prices rose through December, confusing everyone. This could be the beginning of a correction, or it could be a seasonal cool down – a gift for wearing Cambrian home buyers.

If it’s the beginning of a correction, buying now does not make sense unless you plan to be in your home for 10 years or so. If it is a seasonal experience, or a blip, then buying this fall is a good idea, since the new year is very likely to see prices move back up.

Which is it? I do not know for sure. The CEO of my company thinks that prices will trail off for the rest of this year, and then return to their upward march in the spring of 2019 (think Feb – April). When I see the hiring, the Google expansion, I know that people have to live somewhere. It may be a standoff between sellers and buyers on price. My usual advice is simple: if you are ready to get on with your life, and you’re going to stay there 5 or 10 years, buying now most likely makes sense.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,297,500 (+3.0%) $1,260,000 $1,152,000 (+12.6%)
Average Price $1,315,560 (+0.3%) $1,311,880 $1,182,770 (+11.2%)
No. of Sales 52 (-8.8%) 57 75 (-30.7%)
Pending 50 (-3.8%) 52 47 (+6.4%)
Active 75 (+7.1%) 70 25 (+200.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.4% (-1.6%) 105.1% 108.2% (-4.5%)
Days on Market 26 (+52.7%) 17 12 (+117.1%)
Days of Inventory 43 (+17.4%) 37 10 (+332.7%)

 

And the month before:

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,260,000 (-4.0%) $1,312,500 $1,140,000 (+10.5%)
Average Price $1,311,880 (-5.3%) $1,385,810 $1,178,450 (+11.3%)
No. of Sales 57 (-1.7%) 58 77 (-26.0%)
Pending 52 (0.0%) 52 61 (-14.8%)
Active 70 (+42.9%) 49 22 (+218.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.1% (-5.5%) 111.2% 107.9% (-2.6%)
Days on Market 17 (+39.4%) 12 19 (-11.0%)
Days of Inventory 37 (+50.4%) 25 (+329.8%)

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Willow Glen real estate market is a strong seller's market. This Willow Glen sign is from the downtown business district.Willow Glen is perhaps the most charming residential area of the city of San Jose with its old style architecture, tree lined streets and quaint downtown area on Lincoln Avenue and nearby. For folks working in downtown San Jose, the Willow Glen area (roughly the same as 95125 zip code, though a bit of 95124 is included also) is extremely convenient.

The real estate market in Willow Glen is declining slightly from the peaks earlier this year, but values are up year over year, just like the most of the valley. My sense is that this is a seasonal fluctuation combined with “buyer fatigue”. Last year, the housing market did not follow the regular pattern – but this year, perhaps we are settling back into exactly that.

Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report with all of the numbers, stats and trends from the closed sales of houses for last month. Further down in this article you’ll find the Altos Research charts as well.

Willow Glen Market Trends

Trends At a Glance Aug 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,435,000 (-1.9%) $1,462,500 $1,391,000 (+3.2%)
Average Price $1,560,210 (+3.0%) $1,515,270 $1,486,540 (+5.0%)
No. of Sales 40 (-13.0%) 46 55 (-27.3%)
Pending 49 (+6.5%) 46 54 (-9.3%)
Active 58 (-17.1%) 70 27 (+114.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.5% (0.0%) 103.5% 104.1% (-0.6%)
Days on Market 23 (+47.3%) 15 22 (+1.3%)
Days of Inventory 44 (-4.7%) 46 15 (+195.4%)

 

And the month before:

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,462,500 (-0.1%) $1,464,500 $1,309,380 (+11.7%)
Average Price $1,515,270 (-3.2%) $1,565,640 $1,391,670 (+8.9%)
No. of Sales 46 (-14.8%) 54 50 (-8.0%)
Pending 46 (0.0%) 46 46 (0.0%)
Active 70 (+22.8%) 57 39 (+79.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.5% (-1.4%) 105.0% 102.8% (+0.7%)
Days on Market 15 (+6.9%) 14 20 (-22.3%)
Days of Inventory 46 (+49.1%) 31 23 (+95.1%)

 

 

And next, of Willow Glen condos:

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How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.

First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.

The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”

(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)

For most of the valley, inventory is up, prices are down, days on market are up, and sale price to list price ratio is up. It’s still a seller’s market, but it’s softening. If it continues in this direction, it will become a buyer’s market – but is not there yet.

Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts. Please notice that the months of inventory is about DOUBLE from four months ago. Translation: it’s twice as hard to sell now as it was in mid-April. At the same time, 3.15 months of inventory is still very decent! Also, though home prices can be quite high, the bulk of properties are under $3 million. It’s challenging to sell homes higher than that amount, overall.

 

2018-08-17 Saratoga MOI all areas

 

And from 4 months ago:

2a - Saratoga, CA, Real Estate Market Update

 

By comparing across school districts you can also see how different each area’s individual market can be. Saratoga with Saratoga schools is a little slower of a market. Why? Most likely because it’s a bit pricier than other areas. This area is about 50% slower than it was a few months ago. The overall MOI makes it seem like Saratoga with Saratoga Schools is a bit sluggish. That’s not really the case in most price points, but at $4 million and up, it is a buyer’s market.

 

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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
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2007: Mary Pope-Handy and Frances Flynn Thorsen win the Project Blogger Contest for Mary's Live in Los Gatos blog. The contest was sponsored by
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