A lot of angst is caused by computer generated estimates of home values. Most buyers realize that “auto comps” are seriously flawed. Some sellers worry a great deal about the impact that one of these sites might have on their home’s chances of selling at a fair price.

What is the difficulty with these sites (such as Zillow)? Why are they unreliable?

Real estate professionals know that a great many area-related things can impact home values, such as school districts, city boundaries, zip codes, or even being on one side or another of a somewhat main road. Most often, the computer generated estimations of value do not factor these things in.

Additionally, these automated systems rely on county records, which are often incorrect. They don’t “see” remodels, they don’t “compute” deferred maintenance! They cannot factor in a view - good or bad.

To ascertain a home’s probable market value, it’s best to find recently sold homes (pendings and closed sales) that are related to the subject property as follows: within a mile, within 10-15% of the size of the home, similar lot size, similar age, similar condition, and close proximity of time (preferably within the last couple of months). Additionally, the “comps” should be in the same school district and have the same city or town name and have the same zip code.

Many things can “throw” value: odors in the home, high voltage power lines, an overcrowded or unkempt street, noisy neighbors & dogs which bark too much, having apartments too close, being adjacent to freeway walls, train tracks etc.

If you view these types of market analysis sites online and get a “value” provided, please remember that these sites are extremely limited. Please understand that the number you see could be far higher or lower than market value. It is not uncommon, in my experience, to have them off as much as 20%.

What’s the solution? If you read these online valuations, do so with a large “grain of salt”. A better approach is to contact your Realtor and ask for recent comps and if you need to know the precise valuation, ask for that. Your real estate professional can help you to get a handle on your home’s current value, whether it’s to petition for lower property taxes or to decide if you can refinance or sell.

Economists are mixed on what will happen in 2010 and beyond, but many think that this year will be better than last, and 2011 will be a “hot” market again as prices are largely undervalued right now.

Single family homes in the more affordable price ranges seem to be flying off the market in the San Jose district of Almaden Valley.  For the last twelve weeks or so, the absorption rate or months of inventory in the 95120 zip code has been hovering around 2 - 3 months. That’s fast!  (6 months is a balanced market, less a sellers market, and more a buyers market.)

This comprehensive post will include data from three subscription based  sources.  First a summary of the October 2009 sold data (care of my RE Report ).  Then, with the aid of Clarus Market Metrics (a subscription through my MLS and real estate board), we’ll take a two year view of the Almaden real estate market, its months of inventory and supply & demand ratios.  Then we’ll incorporate data from Altos Research, another subscription service I utilize, to look at the data for listed homes today, broken down by price quartile (since what may be happening in Almaden overall may not be the experience in a subset of this market).

Fewer homes are coming on the market now, so the old inventory is getting absorbed.  Prices often are getting pushed up in multiple offers if the home sells quickly (in 3 - 4 weeks).
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Buying & selling a home is usually stressful for consumers, and some circumstances can heighten the anxiety further (being in multiple offers, buying a distressed home, or anything out of the ordinary).  Once you write an offer or receive one on your property, you may feel like a nervous wreck as you navigate the escrow period. In some cases, you may come down with a bad case of buyer’s remorse or seller’s remorse.

We’re In Escrow: Now What?

You will want insights and advice so that you’re sure that you are doing the right thing each step of the way.  Even if you have a great Realtor who thoroughly understands Silicon Valley real estate and is a fantastic communicator, perhaps you want some assurance from an outside source (who’s not being paid for closing the deal) that you really are making good choices in the home sale.

There are a bunch of bad ways to do this but also some good alternatives.

What not to do:

1. Don’t call all of your local Realtor friends whom you didn’t hire and ask for their input.  First, it’s not fair to them as businesspeople that you want their professional input but not for compensation.  Second, they aren’t supposed to meddle and it puts them in an akward position of “implied agency” in which they take on some risk (being your expert upon whose advice they rely) without the benefit of ever getting paid.
2. Beware the well-intentioned advice of non-professionals who may not be up to speed with the current market conditions, construction, your purchase agreement, etc.  Sometimes the “over the cubicle wall” advice can be very, very upsetting as these folks get a homebuyer or home seller freaked out - often over nothing or over a misunderstanding of the situation due to a lack of information.   Most often, this “advice” is from completely unqualified people and will compound problems rather than help to solve them.

How about some good alternatives?

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Silicon Valley home values are dropping, but it may not be as bad as you think. If you only read the headlines, you might think that the value of homes across the south bay has dropped 41% in the last year.  For example, Friday’s print edition of the San Jose Mercury news screams in its headline, “Median Home Price Dives 41%”. ( The online edition had a milder headline, Santa Clara County median home price plunges, sales rise.)

Have home prices really dropped 41% from a year ago?  No. (But it is critically important to know how much values are dropping, especially if you put your home on the market.)  The median home price is the number at which half of all sales were higher and half lower than that number.   For instance, if you had three homes sell, one at $300,000, one at $500,000 and one at $501,000, the “median home price” would be $500,000.   If you had five sell at $100,000 and three sell at $2,000,000, the median would be $100,000. You can see the problem.

What the median home price does explain is market heat, or where the market is most active.  Often, the median price tracks home values - but not always. And this is one of those times.

So how much value has been lost? It will vary from area to area, sometimes even block by block.  Loss in value will be tied to when either you bought the home or when your area was at its peak.  For many parts of San Jose and Silicon Valley, that peak was about 2 years ago, late 2006 to early 2007.

The best way to know what home values are doing is to study the comps, or the comparable home sales. It is easiest to do this in a tract neighborhood (we have no shortage of those in Santa Clara County).

For example, in the South San Jose zip code area of 95138, I took a sample tract home floorplan of 1355 square feet and charted it back over the last ten  years.    Here’s what the average price per SF was for that floorplan per year:

2009   $321.03  just one so far - $435,000
2008   $362.45   av sales price $483,870
2007   $470.55  av sales price $637,595
2006   $492.15  av sales price  $666,863
2005   $453.26  av sales price  $614,167
2004   $407.06  av sales price $551,566
2003   $332.39  av sales price  $450,388
2002   $334.46  av sales price $453,193
2001   $304.80  av sales price  $413,004
2000  $318.25  av sales price  $431,288
1999   $225.09  av sales price $304,996
1998   $205.35  av sales price  $278,249
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Do you want or need to sell your Silicon Valley home this year? If so, you ought to take the staging of your home very seriously. Often homeowners hire a Realtor (or other real estate licensee), ask for their advice on preparing the house and yard for sale, and then proceed to disregard all or most of the guidance given.

Why do would sellers hire an agent and then not take the professional advice offered? Especially in THIS market? The result is frustrating for both the homeowner (who will not realize the best possible price) and for the agent (who cannot control the condition, but who is hampered in selling the home because of it).

To be candid, the odds are that you will not be able to sell your home in San Jose, Los Gatos, or Saratoga this year. Countywide, most homes are NOT selling. Actually, let’s look at the numbers for just a moment - you will see that it’s fairly sobering.

In the Cambrian Park area of San Jose (zip codes 95124, 95118 and a little of 95008), there are 241 single family homes and condos or townhomes for sale (the “active listings”). In that same district, just 109 are pending sales. This refects about a 45% chance of selling.

In Almaden Valley, an upscale collection of neighborhoods comprising the 95120 zip code area of San Jose, it’s much worse. There are 121 houses and townhouses or condominiums for sale, and a mere 34 which are under contract to sell. The odds here are 28% that you’ll sell.

For Los Gatos (95032 and 95030), it’s 203 available vs 50 pending. Down to 24% opportunity to sell.

Saratoga (95070) has 152 active listings and just 33 pendings, or a 21.7% sales success.
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Buying homes in Silicon Valley during a “buyer’s market” takes courage. Doom and gloom grace the cover of the newspaper and online articles. Everyone has a bad story to share about someone else who lost a home, or had a bad experience trying to buy a short sale or distressed property. Perhaps most of all, at work or in social circles, friends and coworkers will advise you “if you wait, you will get it for less”.

But there are many healthy markets and pricepoints where there’s simply a soft spot in the zone where you want to buy. In recent days I’ve looked at the condo and townhouse market in several upscale parts of the valley such as Los Gatos, Saratoga, and Almaden Valley. For some reason, townhomes and condominiums in these lovely areas are taking a bit of a beating right now compared to the single family home market. This appears to be a nice buying opportunity. Real estate in these west valley neighborhoods is usually beyond reach for many people. Right now, though, you may be able to get your foot in the door.

Additionally, there are some markets in which single family homes are selling very well (especially in Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Mountain View). For Silicon Valley seniors who’d like to downsize, this may be an ideal market. Sell the home in a strong market, buy the retirement condo in a buyer’s market. What more could you want?

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