Cambrian Park, or more broadly, Cambrian, is a west San Jose neighborhood or district and is one of the more affordable, high-value areas in Silicon Valley. The schools are good, the crime is low, and the commute is not too bad. For people relocating to Santa Clara County, this is a place to know about since quality education and affordability are often high priorities!

What’s the compromise for the more reasonable prices of homes for sale? Well, Cambrian doesn’t have an interesting, upscale downtown area like Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, or Willow Glen.

But it does have tons of shopping & restaurants and even a Farmer’s Market. It also enjoys a top notch hospital (Good Samaritan) and plenty of parks as well as a fantastic rec center with a large park adjacent to it, the Camden Community Center, which has tons of programs (including an after school program for youth), classes, and a fabulous pool.  (My family and I lived in Cambrian in the “Cambrian Gardens” neighborhood for 10 years and loved it – our kids made great use of the community center too.)

Altogether, there are about 75,000 to 80,000 residents in Cambrian, spread throughout the three zip codes of 95124, 95118 and a little tiny bit of 95008.

If there is a “central Cambrian Park”, it would have to be near the original Cambrian Park Shopping Center, which was the first actual mall in San Jose! That area is sometimes known as Cambrian Village.  People sometimes use the three names interchangeably: Cambrian, Cambrian Park, Cambrian Village.:

Where is Cambrian Park? Map of approximate Cambrian Boundaries:

View Cambrian Area of San Jose in a larger map

Cambrian Park is a west side suburban area, part of the city of San Jose for the most part (there are a few county pockets, a bit now covered by Campbell, though), which is located adjacent to Campbell, Los Gatos, Almaden Valley, Blossom Valley and Willow Glen.

The Cambrian Park boundaries are, approximately, Foxworthy Avenue, Bascom Avenue, Carlton Avenue, Blossom Hill Road (except for a jut up in the Vista Loop area), Camden Avenue, the Guadalupe Creek (between Coleman Ave and Blossom Hill Rd.) and Almaden Expressway. There are many many zigs and zags, especially with the Los Gatos border, but I sketched out the approximate boundaries so that readers could get a rough idea of the area we call Cambrian Park – see the map above.

What are the schools in Cambrian?

Cambrian is served by 3 elementary school districts: The Union School District (in the area closest to Los Gatos), the Cambrian School District (the part to the north, closer to Campbell) and San Jose Unified School District (covering most of the 95118 section).   High Schools are served by Campbell Union High School District if the homes are in the Union or Cambrian schools area, or San Jose Unified in the rest of Cambrian. (Some school districts are elementary and middle only, with a separate high school district.  Others are “unified”, covering K – 12.)

The newest API scores for Santa Clara County’s public schools have been released as of Nov 29, 2011.  If you are unfamiliar with how API scores work, it’s on a scale of 1 to 1000.  The target number for the county is 800, so anything higher is considered good.  Getting close to or over 900 is rare and is the mark of an exceptionally excellent school.

Cambrian came out even stronger than in years past, particularly in the Union School District, where 5 out of 6 elementary schools were in the 900s and the other 1 school was at 878.

The middle schools in the Union area of Cambrian Park also scored high in 2010, with Dartmouth at 900 and Union Middle at 881. For some reason there are NO scores for 2011.

In the Cambrian School District there are 4 grammar schools, 3 of which slipped from the previous year and 1 of which went up.  Bagby was at 905 this time and the rest were in the 8s. Price Charter Middle School held steady at 864.

The high schools in this region (the Campbell Union HSD) all went up from the previous year, but only one of them, Leigh, is over 800 (Leigh has a strong 822 API).

Maps for the school district boundaries and school of attendance in Cambrian:

Map of the Union School District (loads slowly, please allow more time than seems reasonable):
http://www3.unionsd.org/unionsd/lib/unionsd/union_boundarymap.pdf

Map of the Cambrian School District of its boundaries (zoom in for better view), showing school of attendance maps also (they include the Farnaham charter School):
http://www.cambrian.k12.ca.us/oldSite/district_site/images/Cambrian_School_District_Map.jpg

The Cambrian elementary schools covered by the San Jose Unified School District are:
Almaden Elementary (782 API), Hacienda Science/Environmental Magnet Elementary (872) , and Reed Elementary (844).  The middle schools in Cambrian or covering Cambrian for the SJUSD are Castillero (795, slipped a little from the previous year – this school is in Almaden Valley) and John Muir (782).  The map of this district is not very helpful – cannot seem to zoom in:
http://www.sjusd.org/school/district/map_district/

The History of Cambrian, via the Cambrian Community Council

A friend & past client of mine (who purchased a home with me in Cambrian) very kindly told me about a wonderful article on the history of the Cambrian area which can be found on the Cambrian Community Council website.

Cambrian Area: It was always about the schools!

As with many parts of California, interestingly, the name itself goes back to the naming of a school (Cambria being another name for Wales).  This happened in the mid to late 1800s. The details of the founding of the Union School District and the Cambrian School District are shared there, too. It’s funny to think that more than a century later, the high quality schools in this San Jose neighborhood are still of prime importance and a main driver in home values.

Where was Cambrian originally?

The article further explains that the Cambrian area was an enormous stretch of land, and that Cambrian Park is within that general area (as is “Cambrian Village”, found at the crossroads of Union and Camden Avenues in San Jose).  The boundaries got defined differently at various points in time, and at times has included part of Los Gatos. (I read elsewhere that Cambrian was said to extend as far as Dry Creek Road at one point.) Some areas that were originally Cambrian are now part of Willow Glen or part of Campbell. Our local Realtor MLS defines the area as going roughly from about Foxworthy to the north to Blossom Hill in the south, Almaden Expressway to the east and Bascom Avenue to the west. (It touches Los Gatos, Almaden Valley, Willow Glen, and Campbell.)

If you live in this wonderful part of Silicon Valley, I encourage you to visit the CCC website and enjoy their colorful article, History of the Cambrian Area.

Cambrian Park Neighborhoods

Because I sell a fair amount in Cambrian and lived there, I am very partial to this area and have begun doing posts which are Cambrian neighborhood spotlight pieces.  I hope you will enjoy them.  More posts are to come but here are a few to get you started:

The Alta Vista Neighborhood, Where San Jose’s Cambrian Park and Los Gatos Weave Together Along The Base of the Hills

The “King Street” Neighborhood of Cambrian Park on the Los Gatos Border

Cambrian Park Neighborhoods: How to Choose Where to Live?

How’s the Cambrian Park Real Estate Market?

You can read about the Cambrian real estate market (as well as other Silicon Valley real estate markets in Santa Clara County) on my REReport, which is updated in the first week or so of each month.

The current RE Report for Cambrian Park Houses
The current RE Report for Cambrian Condominiums & Townhouses

What is my Cambrian home worth?

If you live in Cambrian now and are wondering about the market value of your home today, there are two approaches you can take.  You can request from me an online valuation (which will be approximate only as it’s “sight unseen”) at either of two places:

Price Your Home request on popehandy.com or at SiliconValleyHomeValue.com

Both of these come to me and I run the numbers personally for home owners who request them (sorry, this offer is not for home buyers).  I can usually turn the info around within a day, but sometimes it takes a couple of days if I happen to be travelling or otherwise overly busy.  If you make a request and for some reason don’t hear back from me within a couple of hours to acknowledge your request, please email or phone me!  Once in awhile, technology doesn’t come through and I don’t get an email alert when I should.

Alternatively, if you do not wish to share your contact info with me at this time, you can also simply browse the sold real estate listings in Cambrian on my Property Analysis page of the RE Report.  Just input an address (it’s not saved, I won’t see it) anywhere in Santa Clara County, and you’ll be able to view nearby sold, pending and available homes for sale close to your property.

What do houses cost in Cambrian?

If you’d like to buy a Cambrian home, you can browse the MLS listings of Cambrian Homes for Sale on this blogsite.  I have them listed by zip code on separate posts for houses, and below this section are the currently available condo and townhome properties which are on our MLS.

Houses for Sale in Cambrian Park, San Jose, 95118

Cambrian Park Houses for Sale in 95124

What do townhouses and condos cost in Cambrian?

Below, please browse MLS listings of Cambrian condos for sale and Cambrian townhouses for sale in 95124 and 95118:

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 12. See more 95124 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $223,500 : 3164 Kimber Ct #70, San Jose
   
   2 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 886 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,148 sq ft
   
2. $245,000 : 2332 Saidel Dr #4, San Jose
   
   2 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 798 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,580 sq ft
   
3. $270,000 : 2785 S Bascom Av #22, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,262 sq ft

   Lot size: 740 sq ft
   
4. $614,995 : 2881 Meridian Av #103, San Jose
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,550 sq ft
   
5. $485,995 : 2881 Meridian Av #108, San Jose
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,320 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Showing properties 1 - 2 of 2. See more 95118 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $365,000 : 1118 Dinkel Ct, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,573 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,742 sq ft
   
2. $304,900 : 5685 Hollyleaf Ln, San Jose
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 974 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,025 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

The annual market report is out at popehandy.REReport.com and we can now learn how 2011 compared to 2010.  The median sales price for houses in Santa Clara County was off 5.3% overall.  But from one part of the valley to the next it varied wildly with 6 cities or areas finding themselves in positive territory while others were off by double digits.

In the image to the left, I’ve put into bold the cities where the median sales price of houses which sold and closed escrow in 2011 were ahead of 2010′s pricing.

What is it that makes Gilroy, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Mountain View and Palo Alto “in the black”?

Most of these cities/towns are upscale, west valley communities.  But so are Saratoga, Cupertino, and Monte Sereno.

Gilroy was especially hard-hit with the housing downturn so perhaps in that case, it’s just coming back into more of a balance. (Then again, so was Morgan Hill and it’s still off by 12%.)

The LinkedIn IPO and others in the Palo Alto area drove prices up for some parts of the housing market nearby and it’s likely that this explains the positive growth for Palo Alto, Mountain View, and Los Altos Hills.  That said, it would seem that Los Altos, and perhaps even Sunnyvale would have seen stronger numbers on the same account.  Perhaps school scores are the key driver here.

Los Gatos, Saratoga and Monte Sereno often behave somewhat similarly as they are adjacent to one another and often attract similar home buyers who want good schools, a nice downtown area nearby and scenic beauty with the hills.  The annual numbers show Monte Sereno down 6.7%, Saratoga down 2% but Los Gatos up 6.4%.  With Monte Sereno, there are very few sales each month and each year (only about 4,000 residents), so there can be a wider swing without it necessarily being accurate. Saratoga and Los Gatos each have about 30,000 people who call these areas home, though, so the data is much more helpful.  Saratoga and Los Gatos both have multiple school districts, views, homes with better proximity to “downtown” and more variables – I think we’d have to dig a lot deeper to learn why these two neighboring markets are so diverse.  We might also have to look at multiple years of data to see if Saratoga spiked while LG slumped to explain the difference.

Coming in at last place: the Santa Cruz Mountains or Los Gatos Mountains area (zip code 95033), where the median list price of houses sold slipped 17% from the year before.  This beautifully scenic region covers a lot of territory and several quite different neighborhoods, some more convenient and others more remote.  It often takes much longer to sell a home in the mountains than on the valley floor but it can be a great “bang for your buck” for great schools, clean area, less crowding, etc.  The remoteness of some homes, the increased rain and other challenges generally make this part of the valley a more challenging real estate market most of the time, and in a down market that’s even more true.

Palo Alto, Mountain View and Los Altos each have regions which can be tracked in addition to the cities as a whole. If you’d like to see these numbers, please visit http://popehandy.rereport.com and then click on Yearly, then select the city, then the neighborhood and you can see how Baron Park or other areas are faring in particular (also for their monthly or quartly reports).

Areas within San Jose, like PA, MV and LA, can be tracked. Since I am very active in several of them (Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, Willow Glen, Blossom Valley and others on the west side), I want to share those next.

The median sales price of houses which sold & closed in 2011 in the City of San Jose was down 5.9%, lower than the county as a whole.  Most of San Jose was worse off than the prior year – all except Alviso!

Alviso, which was a separate town until not so long ago, sold with a double digit increase in the median sales price – a whopping 10.6% higher than in 2010.  Affordability and investor activity are most likely the cause – more demand and less inventory than the year before. (I suspect either fewer distressed properties or that they were gobbled up quickly. Knowing would require more research.)

Downtown or central San Jose took a beating with the median sales price down 9.6%.  Why did it fall from grace?  Not everything in this area is affordable – consider that it includes Naglee Park, The Rosegarden, and a few other tony areas. I suspect it’s the number of foreclosures (REOs) and short sales but I don’t have that information at hand.  It would require a much closer look that our brief survey here to uncover what’s happening.  (We know that there are many unsold, new condos in downtown San Jose but those should not be impacting the sales of single family homes.)

In future articles or posts I hope to look at a few of these areas more carefully to see what is causing the great diversity between the areas showing improvement over 2010 such as Alviso, Palo Alto, Gilroy, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos and Mountain View versus those which are really hurting: downtown San Jose, the Los Gatos Mountains, Evergreen, Morgan Hill, Milpitas.  Very likely it’s a combination of the distressed market activity in some areas, school scores, the pricing tier (i.e., homes between 1 and 2 million near Palo Alto) and more factors.  With real estate, it’s always local – and that’s just the starting point.

How common are “all cash” transactions for Silicon Valley real estate right now?  Throughout Santa Clara County, they were 20% of all sales among houses, duet homes, condominiums and townhouses (class 1 and class 2, does not include mobile homes, 2-4plex or apartment buildings or raw land).

Some areas and some types of sales are more frequently all cash than others.  Here are a few quick stats for the last month (last 30 days from today – numbers from MLSListings, crunched by me – disclaimer on good intentions but no guarantee):

• Santa Clara County: 20% all cash
• San Jose (entire city): 24% all cash
• San Jose short sales: 33% all cash
• San Jose bank owned or REO sales: 37% all cash
• Short sales & REOs were 48% of all sales in San Jose in the last month
• Of SJ homes listed at $300,000 or less: 48% all cash
• Los Gatos & Monte Sereno: zero sales all cash
• Saratoga: 29% all cash
• Almaden Valley area of San Jose: 14% all cash

Some of these sales will have no financing and the new owners will occupy the home.  Particularly in lower priced homes, though, these are investor buyers who will be renting out the property.  This is often the case with the lower price distressed properties in particular.  In higher priced homes, some new owners will put financing on the property after close of escrow.

With the crazy new demands that keep coming at us from banks and new requirements being imposed on appraisers, now more than ever, cash is king.  That doesn’t mean that the cash buyer will get a deep discount, but there will be a slight one in most cases and certainly preferential treatment that will create a great advantage in multiple offer situations.

Learn more about buying and selling Silicon Valley real estate with cash offers:

Cash offers: what do you need to know if buying “all cash”?

Q & A: Making an Offer

What’s My Silicon Valley Home Worth? Estimating the Probable Buyer’s Value  (financing impacts market value)

Some first time home buyers in the San Jose or Silicon Valley area get confused by the “assessed property value” of houses, condos, or townhouses: they mistakenly think that this number has some bearing on the real estate market value.  It doesn’t.  The assessed value is used only for determining the amount of property tax being paid.

Residential real estate in California is reassessed upon transfer of title, or change of ownership, in most cases (there are some exemptions). From there, the assessed value can only go up 2% per year at most (thanks to the passage of Proposition 13 in the 1970s).  When property values decline, as they have recently, owners of properties with higher than market value assessments can appeal and get a temporary rollback in valuation for the purposes of having property taxes lowered.  This is very very common (and even so, the assessed value is usually still off as it’s based loosely on the January values of that year – the values are often higher than market value for these petitioned properties).  The tax assessor’s office has a lot of latitude in determining the assessed values; it is nothing at all like an appraisal, which should use strict comparisons.

Let’s look at a few hypothetical examples, taking tract housing with the same square footage, layout etc:

1 – If a couple purchased a Cambrian Park house in 1960 to 1970 and paid $20,000 for that property, but today’s value is approximately $500,000, the property tax being paid will reflect the long term ownership and won’t be based on the current market value.  That couple might be paying $600 to $800 per year in property taxes with a corresponding “assessed value” of about $52,000.

2 – The property next door, with the same floor plan, same exact improvements, that was bought yesterday for $500,000 will have an assessed property value of $500,000 (reassessed upon change of ownership) and property taxes of about 1.25% per year, or $6,250 per year.  Same house, same everything – except length of ownership.

3 – Now let’s say that same layout, same street, same builder, same schools, same condition – sold at the or near the height of the market for 25% more or $625,000. The owners of that San Jose house might have a property tax bill reflecting the higher price paid, so about $7,812.50 per year.  These homeowners are unhappy that the values have slipped, unhappy that they are paying taxes based on equity that they don’t have, so they gather some comps and appeal the Santa Clara County Tax Assessor’s office to get a rollback on computed valuation and therefore lower property taxes.  After reviewing the numbers, let’s say they are granted a temporary lower value of $550,000 (it’s seldom accurate and is often high with these appeals) and taxes paid get readjusted to $6875 for that tax year.

So the same house but with different owners can have wildly different assessed valuations: $52,000 or $500,000 or $550,000.  Only one of these reflects an accurate “market value” – the one that was bought yesterday.

Even then, there are caveats, so don’t accept any “simple answers”!

The property that closed at $500,000 may have been sold As Is and the buyers may have agreed to do $50,000 worth of improvements that were needed.  In that case, if you compare the same floorplan in the same little development or subdivision, your estimation of value could be off by 10%.  It is important to find out the details of the sale, and often those are not in the public print out, but only in the real estate licensee version.

Understanding market value is not a simple or easy task most of the time. Don’t make the mistake of factoring in the assessed property value – it will only muddy the water and not provide any constructive information to you.

Sellers, if your assessed value from the county tax assessor’s office is very low, realize that some home buyers (either looking for an excuse or simply not educated) may try to use that low number as a reason for a terribly below market offer.  If you have petitioned for a lowered value, this may especially be the case – so it might be good to disclose what you’ve done upfront.  Talk to your Realtor and be prepared.

For more reading on real estate valuation:

What’s My Silicon Valley Home Worth? Estimating the Probable Buyer’s Value

Why Do Agents Suggest That Sellers Price Their Home “At The Market”?

The Santa Clara County (Silicon Valley) Real Estate Market Trends Report – published early each month

Pricing Your Silicon Valley Home Competitively

Request an online pricing evaluation of your Santa Clara County home by Mary Pope-Handy (free)

Info from SCC tax assessor’s office on Prop 13

How’s the market for condos and townhouses in Los Gatos and Saratoga?  This morning I ran the numbers for “area 16″ (the Los Gatos and Monte Sereno areas, which includes a tiny bit of San Jose also) and “area 17″ (the Saratoga area, also includes borderline areas of San Jose and Cupertino) in our multiple listing service.

Hottest are the distressed condominium or townhome sales – short sales and bank owned or REO properties in Los Gatos and Saratoga.  Coldest (hardest to sell) are the “regular sales”.  Buyers are going after the bargain pricing that the pre-foreclosure and foreclosure listings offer.  Have a look:

The months of inventory are longest in Saratoga, with 9 months of inventory for town houses and condos.  The ratio of pending sales to active listings is lowest there, too, a mere 11%.

The months of inventory for Los Gatos short sales is a fast paced one month and the pendings outnumber the actives four to one!

Home buyers: if you are attempting to purchase a distressed condo in either of these high-end west valley areas, be prepared to act fast and present a strong offer.  Your odds will be better with a regular sale!

Home sellers: if you are selling a non-distressed condominium or townhouse in Saratoga or Los Gatos, especially if it’s a luxury property, be prepared to make your home the best value to attract a good buyer.  As has been said elsewhere, for this segment of the real estate market “it’s a price war and a beauty contest”.  Everything has to be just right for you to enjoy a successful sale now.

The Los Gatos real estate market for houses & duet homes looks pretty good at first glance, but if you scratch the surface and analyze some of the sub-markets, we see that it varies widely as to how “the” market is faring. (It’s not one market, but many smaller markets near each other.)

Yesterday I spent some time pulling apart the housing market in Los Gatos (for houses and duet homes, not condos) by school district and price point to get the months of inventory.  Here’s a brief summary:

The market gets substantially colder as you go up in price – read more and get more details on Live in Los Gatos!

More reading…

How’s the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Doing Now?
Please also view the current statistics care of Altos Research on my popehandy.com site on the Los Gatos real estate market (uses list prices rather than solds):
How’s the Real Estate Market in Los Gatos?

Lately I am seeing a trend with short sale listings which is anecdotal but, I think, significant.  More and more, I am seeing and hearing about lenders which are requiring an unrealistic sales price in order to approve short sales.  When I say “unrealistic”, I mean more than the market can bear in many cases.

I personally had this experience in recent months: I had a short sale listing in Sunnyvale which was priced at market value last summer.  We got three offers, all within 2-3% of each other.  This is a pretty good indicator of market value. (Had we been underpriced, the contracts would have come in higher.)  The bank wanted about 15% more – an absolutely unjustifiable figure.

What to do?  I ran the comps and submitted them.  No impact.  I then paid an agent to do a BPO (broker price opion).  That number came in about 1.5% more than my sales price.  The lender, in turn, ordered an appraisal (which we appreciated), and that came in another 1.5% higher than the BPO (or about 3% higher than the sales price my seller had accepted).  Common sense would dictate that the lender would accept as authoritative the appraisal price, right?  Not so.  They wanted another 1.5% higher still – higher than their own appraisal value, certainly higher than market value.  Needless to say, the buyer did not want to overpay for the property.  Fast forward a six months and the bank now has taken back that townhouse at foreclosure.  It could have been avoided had the lender been willing to be realistic.

As I speak to my colleagues in the real estate industry here in Silicon Valley, I am finding that my story with this one listing is not so unique. I see homes on the market in various west valley communities (Almaden, Cambrian, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Campbell and nearby San Jose areas) that are listed at a reasonable price and then speak with the Realtor and learn that the banks 10 to 15% more than the list price.  At best, this is at the high end of market value (but in many cases is higher still and completely crazy). The agents know that if the house is listed at the bank’s number, they’ll never even get an offer.

It looks as though many of the banks would rather just take the short sale properties back in foreclosure.  Why? There are incentives for them: they can write off losses, they don’t have to deal with second or third lein holders, and they may even have silent mortgage insurance, which doesn’t help if they accept a short sale – it only helps if there’s a foreclosure.

Some numbers:

Closed in the last month, just 26 short sale houses and condos and townhouses in Almaden, Cambrian, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga and Cupertino closed escrow.  In the same areas, there are 129 short sales on the market and available!   That’s 4.96 months of inventory….

Average days on market of these solds = 143   Average length of escrow for these solds = 110 (longest was 253!)

For non distressed listings in the same area it’s 555 available and 132 sold for 4.2 months of inventory.

The US government has tried to make short sales more appealing by offering cash incentives to lenders (and consumers), but it seems to me that right now, the banks are only appearing interested – they aren’t truly working to make short sales happen in many cases. This is not a good trend and it will hurt a lot of people.

Often I have clients who are interested in purchasing a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a good school district in Silicon Valley, particularly in the South Bay and West Valley areas.    Tonight I did a study on the MLS of homes that have sold and closed escrow in the last 3 – 6 months with these characteristics:

• single family home (house)
• 4 bedrooms
• 2 bathrooms
• 1800 to 2200 square feet of living space
• 6000 to 10,000 sf lot

Disclaimers aside, here are the numbers as I shook them out for select West Valley Communities in the San Jose area with good schools (the first number is the average sales price per square foot, the second number is the average sales price):

The home prices tend to run with the school district API scores.  You can check the 2010 API scores in Santa Clara County for both the districts and the individual schools online here.        

As you can see, there’s quite a range of pricing for our model 4 bed, 2 bath home of about 2,000 square feet – it could run as low as about $560,000 on average (Cambrian with San Jose Unified Schools) to a high of about $1,455,500 in Palo Alto.

Please remember that these homes do not represent just the most fixed up homes in the most ideal locations, short sales, regular sales, bank owned homes etc. – it’s all types of houses, all types of sales, so average numbers.  So if you are a buyer who needs a “turnkey” home with everything remodeled or new in the best location, you might want to mentally add at least another 10% to 25% to this cost. (For example, in my experience, a really nicely remodeled home along these lines in Almaden with the best schools will run between $1 mil and $1,200,000 depending; in Los Gatos it’s about 15% – 20% more for a similar home.)

Here are a few areas in Santa Clara County which are well known for good schools:

Palo Alto Unified = 925 (includes elementary, middle and high schools)

Los Altos Elementary = 965 (includes elementary and middle schools only)
Mountain View – Los Altos Union (high schools) = 852

Saratoga Union Elementary = 965
Los Gatos Union = 921
Los Gatos – Saratoga Joint Union (high school district) = 898

Cupertino Union = 951
Fremont Union High School District (high schools serving Cupertino and nearby) = 875 (but 2 high schools are in the 9s)

Union School District (Cambrian & east Los Gatos) = 905
Cambrian School District = 878
Campbell Union High School District = 761 (highest scoring school is Leigh at 817)

San Jose Unified is enormous… In Almaden, Leland has very very high scores, as does Bret Harte Middle School, so those area are preferre (all of the elementary schools in Almaden are quite good).

But wait, there’s more!

These aren’t the only areas with great schools in Silicon Valley, of course.  West San Jose and Santa Clara have areas that share Cupertino Schools, for instance.  Monte Sereno is 99.5% in the Los Gatos School area (but there were no homes matching our outline in the last few months).  The Los Gatos Mountain communities such as Redwood Estates, Holy City, Aldercroft Heights and Chemeketa Park enjoy fabulous schools (Lakeside and Loma Prieta districts).  There are wonderful schools in the Silver Creek area of Evergreen, the Warm Springs and Mission Districts of Fremont, and the city of Pleasanton, to name a few.

You’ve heard that prices are a little high in Silicon Valley.  Even with the recession and the “rollback”, this is still true.  So what can you buy for a million dollars here?

In Santa Clara County (which is most of “Silicon Valley”), in the last 3 months there were about 50 -75 homes that sold very close to $1 million.  They were spread throughout the county.  Here’s a snapshot of what a million dollar home in Silicon Valley looks like.

Depending on where you live, you can get more or less for your money.  In some areas, a million dollar price tag will get you a townhouse rather than a house, too. In some areas, it’s a luxury home, but in many it’s simply a nice, middle-class home.

In some parts of Silicon Valley, by crossing a particular road or driving a few feet, the whole look, feel and pricing of an area can change.

Bel Estos Drive near Rosswood Drive in San Jose

This is true for Rosswood Drive at Union Avenue in Cambrian Park.  On both sides of the intersection, there are many homes of 1200 to 1400 square feet (some larger too) all built around the same time.  Both are San Jose 95124 addresses.  Both are good areas – but the 2000 and 2100 blocks are  nicer than the 1800 & 1900 blocks of Rosswood and those homes sell for more. Why? What makes one area sell for more than another?

In the case of Rosswood Drive, part of it has to do with the beautiful canopy of trees that line the two thousand block of Rosswood and the adjoining streets (Bel Escou, Bel Canto, Bel Estos, Esther, etc.). Part of it is just that the homes are a little better maintained.  Historically, Union used to divide the schools too, and that used to be part of the higher prices – but that’s not really the case now.  (A similar jump happens along Los Gatos-Almaden Road by Harwood too – same builder, Leep, but prices nudge up just a little for homes closer to Blossom Hill Road.)

How can you tell, from looking at a neighborhood, how it compares with nearby streets in the same part of town generally?  Sometimes you cannot know from looking alone (for example a flood plain, earthquake fault or school boundary won’t show), but I’ll give you some cues as to what makes areas more or less desireabile visually.

These are some things I teach my San Jose area buyers to watch out for (lower values) in terms of appearance and sounds:

• too many cars on the street (the more, the worse) – sense of crowding
• junky cars, boats, RVs
• neglected landscaping
• homes in need of paint
• “bars on the windows” and “security doors” in more than one home on the street
• loud music
• trash and trash cans out when it isn’t garbage pick up day
• graffitti
• Lots of RVs (motor homes, trailers, boats)  especially if there are many of them, will pull a neighborhood’s value down
• wire or cyclone fencing in the front yard

Conversely, indicators that a street or area may be better include these:

• people out walking dogs
• people pushing strollers or exercising in the neighborhood
• tidy homes and yards
• if there’s front yard fencing, it’s picket style or similar (not wire or cyclone fencing)
• cars that are well maintained or newer
• most cars either in garages or in driveways – street mostly clear of cars
• tree-lined streets
• quiet areas (you don’t hear TVs, stereos blaring)
• “pride of ownership” evident – evidence of completed home improvement projects, for instance

Also please note:  when looking at values online, you may not realize that a house value might jump or decline 3-5% in some areas simply by crossing the road. Local agents who are active in the marketplace do know, though, so it’s good to get professional help when trying to understand home values.

Sereno Group Real Estate just released its annual real estate market trends report for Santa Clara County, San Mateo County and Santa Cruz County.(The link will take you to a pdf of the report, which is a 1.6 MB file so allow a little time for downloading.)

The study covers nearly two years in these three Bay Area Counties: January 2008 to December 2009.

The report is free and does not require registration to be viewed.

We hope that you find the report informative and helpful.

Beautiful Willow Glen is one of San Jose’s many districts, but it once was a separate town until less than a hundred years ago, when the need for a better sewage system nudged the townfolk to vote in favor of annexation to San Jose.  It maintains a strong & independent identity.

To speak of “the Willow Glen real estate market” is to try to include divergent neighborhoods, school districts, architecture, price points and locations. Below please find a general overview of the market for Willow Glen houses & duet homes as of March 20, 2010. (Numbers from MLSListings.com, crunched by Mary Pope-Handy. Homes listed as “sold” were closed within the last 30 days – as of today.)

The months of inventory indicates that it is a seller’s market in Willow Glen (less than 6 months is the tipping point) overall.  Please note that there’s some variation, though, from one school district to the next.  You’ll also find variation between price points, whether or not the home is distressed, etc.

Schools:  most of Willow Glen belongs to the San Jose Unified School District.  A small section of Willow Glen is a part of the Campbell Union High School District.  (CUHSD has pretty good schools so this area is often prized for that reason.) And a tiny little sliver actually belongs to the East Side Union High School District – very few homes fall into this section so it’s not addressed specifically.

Areas: Willow Glen has many neighborhoods within it, ranging from Palm Haven and north Willow Glen to the Birdlands and the Willows at another and many others inbetween.  There are some areas more prized than others, of course.  Being close to the downtown area (and away from freeways, for instance) can dramatically increase the sales price and marketability of the home.   Certain neighborhoods have more charming architecture, larger trees along the street, wider roads or other plusses that drive their value up.

Price points and selling conditions:  In addition to these factors, we also must consider the price point of the home as well as whether a home is being sold without undue pressure or if it is a distressed sale, that is, a bank owned or short sale.  Regular sales usually sell for more (and buyers know that normally they will be given both disclosures and presale inspections prior to drafting their purchase offer).

In most of Silicon Valley, the “hottest” segment of the market is the most affordable.  For a closer look at this subset of the San Jose real estate market, I have broken it down into major groups, the first one being homes priced below $729,000 (which is close to the “conforming jumbo” loan cutoff).  Below, please notice that there is a significant difference between the months of inventory from one school district to the next as well as one sale type to the next.  In Willow Glen right now, the sweet spot of the market are homes priced under $729,000 and located in the Campbell Union High School District (not San Jose Unified). 

If we look at the next pricing tier of $729,000 to $1,200,000, we see that things cool off considerably. This is true in most of the rest of Santa Clara County, too.  The lowest priced houses are tending to sell the best right now.

In this tier, the months of inventory are much longer overall and in some cases, there have been no recent sales and the prospects are fairly dismal. The odds are improved for this group if the home is a “normal sale”, at least.

And what of the highest priced homes in Willow Glen? This is the toughest market overall.

With an average months of inventory of 10.67 for all school districts or 9.33 months for San Jose Unified, it is a real challenge to get a high end home sold in Willow Glen today. The Willow Glen Luxury home market saw just 3 homes closed last month.  The only way for these homes to sell is to get the price to a painful level for the sellers, unfortunately.  Buyers want a bargain – and they are voting with their feet, deciding that most of what’s on the market in this price point in Willow Glen is overpriced.

It is very important for home sellers to be realistic when pricing their homes.  Setting the offering price where you’d like it to be is not a smart strategy.  If your segment of the market has 10 months of inventory, you have got to seriously undercut the rest of the homes to get yours sold!

Buyers, if you are hoping to scoop up a Willow Glen bargain by finding a short sale or bank owned property, you’d better be ready to act fast if one comes on the market in your price range. As you can see, there aren’t many of them – and they’re selling fast!  You may be able to find a “regular sale” for a bit more – the delta between regular sales and short sales is often 10-20%, depending on a lot of variables.  Even among the regular sales, in the lowest priced houses in this area, they aren’t lasting too long.  The good ones go fast!

If you’d like to have a better understanding of your area within Willow Glen, please call me for a confidential appointment.

Legalese:  this post and content, like all entries on this blog, are copyrighted. Do not copy without my express, written permission.

A lot of angst is caused by computer generated estimates of home values. Most buyers realize that “auto comps” are seriously flawed. Some sellers worry a great deal about the impact that one of these sites might have on their home’s chances of selling at a fair price.

What is the difficulty with these sites (such as Zillow)? Why are they unreliable?

Real estate professionals know that a great many area-related things can impact home values, such as school districts, city boundaries, zip codes, or even being on one side or another of a somewhat main road. Most often, the computer generated estimations of value do not factor these things in.

Additionally, these automated systems rely on county records, which are often incorrect. They don’t “see” remodels, they don’t “compute” deferred maintenance! They cannot factor in a view – good or bad.

To ascertain a home’s probable market value, it’s best to find recently sold homes (pendings and closed sales) that are related to the subject property as follows: within a mile, within 10-15% of the size of the home, similar lot size, similar age, similar condition, and close proximity of time (preferably within the last couple of months). Additionally, the “comps” should be in the same school district and have the same city or town name and have the same zip code.

Many things can “throw” value: odors in the home, high voltage power lines, an overcrowded or unkempt street, noisy neighbors & dogs which bark too much, having apartments too close, being adjacent to freeway walls, train tracks etc.

If you view these types of market analysis sites online and get a “value” provided, please remember that these sites are extremely limited. Please understand that the number you see could be far higher or lower than market value. It is not uncommon, in my experience, to have them off as much as 20%.

What’s the solution? If you read these online valuations, do so with a large “grain of salt”. A better approach is to contact your Realtor and ask for recent comps and if you need to know the precise valuation, ask for that. Your real estate professional can help you to get a handle on your home’s current value, whether it’s to petition for lower property taxes or to decide if you can refinance or sell.

Economists are mixed on what will happen in 2010 and beyond, but many think that this year will be better than last, and 2011 will be a “hot” market again as prices are largely undervalued right now.

Single family homes in the more affordable price ranges seem to be flying off the market in the San Jose district of Almaden Valley.  For the last twelve weeks or so, the absorption rate or months of inventory in the 95120 zip code has been hovering around 2 – 3 months. That’s fast!  (6 months is a balanced market, less a sellers market, and more a buyers market.)

This comprehensive post will include data from three subscription based  sources.  First a summary of the October 2009 sold data (care of my RE Report ).  Then, with the aid of Clarus Market Metrics (a subscription through my MLS and real estate board), we’ll take a two year view of the Almaden real estate market, its months of inventory and supply & demand ratios.  Then we’ll incorporate data from Altos Research, another subscription service I utilize, to look at the data for listed homes today, broken down by price quartile (since what may be happening in Almaden overall may not be the experience in a subset of this market).

Fewer homes are coming on the market now, so the old inventory is getting absorbed.  Prices often are getting pushed up in multiple offers if the home sells quickly (in 3 – 4 weeks).

Here’s a view of the months of inventory in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose over the last 2 years:

Next let’s have a look at the overall “supply and demand” for this upscale part of Silicon Valley over the last two years.   Sales are rising while inventory is shrinking – and for buyers, that’s exactly how it feels: there’s less to choose from and prices are inching upwards.  If you were waiting for the “bottom of the market”, it may be behind – just depends on your price point.

This is extremely interesting as an overview of the 95120 zip code. But as we know, things can be vastly different between entry level homes and the most expensive luxury estates.  Let’s change gears, then, and make use of Altos Research’s charts and graphs (to which I subscribe and have the right to post).  NB Altos uses list prices. The data above, from our MLS, is using sold prices.

A great thing about Altos is that they separate out the data by price quartile.  I’ll now demonstrate why this matters so much.

First, here’s the median list price for all of Almaden Valley (all price quartiles combined) for the last year:

Now let’s see the data broken down by quartile:

Now perhaps it doesn’t look so bad, unless you are in the most expensive homes. The upper middle quartile appears to be about where it was a year ago – so really not bad.The lower three quartiles all got a bump up in pricing in summer, but the highest priced homes continued to drop.   Let’s look closer at the prices of the luxury homes for sale in Almaden.

These most expensive homes in the 95120 zip code appear to be listed at about 20% less than they were a year ago.

Next is the list price for the upper middle quartile:

This upper middle quartile has held its value amazingly well, with only about a 1% change in pricing.  I wish I knew why.

Next the lower middle quartile:

This quartile looks to be about 9% “off” from a year ago.

And finally, the bottom quartile of houses for sale in Almaden – the most affordable or “entry level” homes for sale:

These least expensive Almaden Valley homes for sale have come down by about 8% from a year ago. That’s quite a big difference from the most expensive homes!

Overall, most of the homes in Almaden have had a fairly consistent drop in pricing over the last year. The upper middle tier did not seem to have such a consistent drop as the rest – not sure why that is.

What about inventory in San Jose’s Almaden Valley area of 95120?

Here’s the chart for all quartiles combined of the active inventory of Almaden Valley homes for sale:

Inventory is crucially important because of the law of supply and demand.  Buyers today are finding less inventory and this is precisely what is causing the surge in sales and the low “months of inventory”.  (I did not show this by quartile because it simply shows four lines following the exact curve pattern.)

Now average days on market for Almaden Valley overall:

Next average days on market by quartile:

This is an interesting tangle of information reflecting the average days on market among Almaden Valley homes for sale, separated by quartile. Inventory is rising, but there was a “dip” in spring to summer, depending on the price point.

Finally, let’s circle back to the absorption rate or “months of inventory”. It’s quite low for Almaden overall – just abeout 3 months of inventory right now. But it may be quite different from one price range to the next.

The top quartile (black line) is lagging the most.  This seems to make sense as those homes appear to have taken the biggest hit with pricing. In all quartiles, though, the absorption rate is up.  If you go to the top of this post to view last month’s closed data, you’ll see that sales are up 200% over a year ago.  That is an enormous improvement!

So what can Silicon Valley home buyers and sellers take away from this post on the Almaden Valley real estate market? It appears to be a mixed message:

prices are down (from 1% to 20% from a year ago)
days on the market are up from a year ago
inventory is down from a year ago
sales are up

I believe that what we are seeing here is the turning of the tide.  With fewer homes to choose from and buyers actively picking up bargains, there’s simply more demand than supply – and it’s pushing prices up.