Market Reports

Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Reports

The Blossom Valley area of San Jose is on the south end of the city and covers the 95123 and 95136 zip codes. For our MLS, it’s “area 12.” A more affordable section of Silicon Valley, Blossom Valley has much to offer in addition to more reasonable housing prices. Many areas enjoy views of the Santa Teresa Foothills or the Communications Hill knolls or even the coastal foothills in the distance, as with the photo below. One corner of it sits alongside beautiful Almaden Lake, too. One corner is located at the crossroads of Highways 85 and 87, making it an easy commute destination for those working in downtown San Jose. And there’s an abundance of shopping opportunities.

Blossom Valley from the Church on the Hill

Much more could be written, but let’s now instead turn to the real estate market there.

First, “live,” automatically updating Altos Charts for San Jose 95123 and 95136 and single family homes (houses and duet homes). These use list prices, not sales prices.

The median list price of both 95123 and 95136, all prices, single family homes (houses and duet homes, if there are any).

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Next, the median list price for just the San Jose 95123 area of Blossom Valley, and separated by price quartile:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

And next, the median list price of just San Jose 95136 by price quartile:

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The Sunnyvale real estate market has been trending upward for many months. In general, houses in Sunnyvale are selling for about one million six hundred thousand dollars – if they aren’t too small or in terrible shape (or conversely palatial or newly built or remodeled). Let’s begin with single family homes. The median list price for homes in Sunnyvale CA – all zip codes combined – interestingly, the high end homes are doing the best! (Live charts from Altos Research, which uses LIST prices, not sale prices.)

Sunnyvale real estate market: Altos Research, median list prices by quartile

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

What about the numbers for the closed sales? Now let’s have a look at the Sunnyvale CA RE Report for last month’s trends and statistics (click on link to get the full Sunnyvale real estate market report):

Trends At a Glance Dec 2017 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,985,000 (+2.7%) $1,932,500 $1,467,500 (+35.3%)
Average Price $1,845,050 (-3.9%) $1,919,420 $1,473,040 (+25.3%)
No. of Sales 38 (-9.5%) 42 44 (-13.6%)
Pending 28 (-17.6%) 34 18 (+55.6%)
Active (-68.8%) 16 17 (-70.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 119.7% (0.0%) 119.8% 105.3% (+13.7%)
Days on Market 10 (-7.3%) 11 23 (-56.3%)
Days of Inventory (-64.3%) 11 12 (-65.9%)

Yeowch! The January market’s beyond hot – it’s scorching! Moving from a steady 119% over list price, the average sale has risen to a whooping 123.5% of listed! Properties are still flying off the shelves at 9 days on market.

What about the Sunnyvale condo and townhome market?

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Home values in Santa Clara County, the heart of Silicon Valley, have been going through the roof ever since Google announced that it was going to expand into downtown San Jose. Communities like Cambrian, Willow Glen, Blossom Valley, and Santa Teresa were seeing values rise at a good clip prior to the announcement. But since Google essentially put the golden shovel into the ground – in theory – the prices turned straight up, like a geyser. Santa Clara County appreciation has perhaps never been stronger than it is right now.

Realtor Property Network, or RPR, is a tool available to those of us who are dues paying members of the National Association of Realtors. Tonight I was looking at the data for a few communities within Santa Clara County, and was amazed at the appreciation over just the last month in some of them. Here’s what I found:

 

Santa Clara County Appreciation

The more expensive areas, such as Los Gatos, are appreciating nicely – but not at the same rate as the more affordable areas like Blossom Valley and Santa Teresa (both districts within the sprawling city of San Jose).Santa Clara County Appreciation as whole has risen 21.77% since a year ago.

What does that mean?

In terms of dollars and sense, it can mean seeing your whole down payment disappear. Those who have cautiously waited on the sidelines have seen the value of their buying power shrink while they studied the market and looked for a good deal.

In Santa Teresa, the median home price this last month was $965,000 and the average home price was $981,000 (per my Silicon Valley Real Estate Report). Six month ago, those numbers were $875,000 and $896,000. Home prices have gone up about $14,000 – $15,000 per month (based on the median and average sale prices).

While I was mid way through my research, the RPR site went off for scheduled maintenance. I was going to check Saratoga and Cupertino next to see if my theory holds true that this rising tide (i.e., Google) is mostly floating the boats in the most affordable areas. That will have to be continued.

At my office meeting yesterday, I heard many real estate agents tell tales of woe for their buyers, who were going up against 20 to 30 or 40 other competing offers – or more!

It is, indeed, a challenging time for home buyers. For home sellers, it’s a dream – as long as they don’t also have to buy here in Santa Clara County or anywhere else in Silicon Valley.

Interested in buying or selling in Santa Clara County, or nearby? Please give me a call and we can schedule a time for a confidential consultation.

Cambrian Park Plaza SignThe months of inventory for any part of the real estate market can vary, depending on many factors, including age of home, house size, lot size, and school district, whether or not there’s a pool, and many other things. It can be very useful to understand this metric when selling a Silicon Valley home. I’ve done market numbers crunching tied to the specific characteristics of a property (say, small yard with pool or big yard with no pool) to find the impact of those characteristics on the probability that a home will sell – or how fast.

The Cambrian area of San Jose is a very “hot market” overall, but it can be confusing to know how hot it really is, just like the rest of Santa Clara County, because there are multiple school districts – and schools are probably the number one driver of home values in this highly educated valley.

An explanation of “months of inventory”

What does “months of inventory” mean? This figure references how long it would take to sell a property if homes continued to sell and close at the current pace with no new inventory coming on the market. A good analogy is to consider a bathtub which drains. If you add no new water to the tub, how long will it take to empty out?

The months of inventory is sometimes called the absorption rate. The question is simple: how long will it take for the current inventory of homes for sale to get absorbed by the home buyers purchasing them? It doesn’t have to be calculated by months. It could be in days, weeks, or years. But months is probably most common.

The Cambrian area of San Jose’s months of inventory as a whole, and in one price point

Cambrian was once an enormous zone of the Santa Clara Valley. Today we mostly think of it as within San Jose in the 95124 and 95118 zip codes. Some of it it adjacent to Campbell – a very tiny sliver is IN Campbell (we’re only dealing with the San Jose portion in our charts), and a tinier still area is in San Jose and is under the Campbell School Union District. Most of this area is in one of three elementary school districts: Cambrian, Union, or San Jose Unified.

Here’s the breakdown – first, for ALL of Cambrian (MLS area 14 for my Realtor readers) that’s within the City of San Jose and second, by elementary school district. The area for Campbell Elementary is so small that the numbers are usually not of use (no offense to the Campbell school residents). It can just jump around too much to be helpful and often gives us no usable data. Please have a look:

1A - Cambrian months of inventory

I highlighted the San Jose Unified Elementary School District in both charts as the current lowest MOI. You’ll see that past charts show that the fastest market shifts around. Aside from Campbell, which has numbers too small to register a MOI, these are the hottest tickets in the district.

Below are some past charts for comparison. This one is recent, from early January 2018.

1b - Cambrian months of inventory

In this chart, it’s the Union Elementary School District in both charts with the lowest MOI.

Here are the numbers from September 2017 for comparison:

2 - Cambrian months of inventory

The message I’d like to convey is this: you can read about information for your part of Silicon Valley, or your city or zip code, but it’s not until you drill things down to an area that closely matches your own home will you have a better sense of your own home’s “real estate marker.” It’s never “how is the market?” so much as “how’s the market for YOUR home – or the one you want to buy?”

If you were only tracking the whole of Cambrian, you might see .643 months of inventory. That’s a lightning fast seller’s market. But it’s not quite so fast if you’re selling a Cambrian home in the Union Elementary Schools area of the entry-level market. There, you’re seeing 3 whole months of inventory for homes around $1 million, while the same price point with San Jose Union Schools is almost one tenth of that, a low 0.375.

Years ago, I had a Willow Glen listing where the whole back yard was the pool. I did a study on the months of inventory and learned that pools in properties with that lot size took substantially more time to be absorbed. Likewise, I had a Los Gatos estate property on an acre of land, and the reverse was also true: the months of inventory showed that large lots on $2 million and up homes for sale did not sell nearly as well without a pool.

The math is simple: using the same criteria, divide the number of active listings by those of homes sold in the last 30 days. The criteria can be anything you like – a property’s size, location, number of bathrooms, price, age, etc. Often I include approximately the same home and lot size together with the school district. That usually provides much more accurate info on “how’s the market” as compared to just getting it by zip code alone.

If you are looking to buy or sell a home in Cambrian, or anywhere in San Jose or Santa Clara County, this kind of information is really important. It is not hard to do, but very few real estate agents will provide this information before you list or before you make the final determination on the list price of your home.

Looking for a good Silicon Valley Realtor who will get you that extra data? Please call or email me. I would love to chat to see about possibly working together.

The Santa Clara County real estate statistics for Single Family Homes

 Read the full report for houses and duet homes in Santa Clara County here (You can also access the stats for San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties from here!)

Prices are up year-over-year due to a prolonged, unrelenting sellers market. Available inventory is less than half of what it was a year ago, while sales remain consistent. This is bad news for buyers – the market conditions can’t balance out without inventory to meet the demand!

Trends At a Glance Jan 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,163,000 (-10.1%) $1,293,690 $929,000 (+25.2%)
Average Price $1,439,310 (-7.5%) $1,556,330 $1,259,470 (+14.3%)
No. of Sales 450 (-36.1%) 704 488 (-7.8%)
Pending 581 (+12.8%) 515 533 (+9.0%)
Active 376 (+38.7%) 271 762 (-50.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 108.9% (-0.4%) 109.3% 101.2% (+7.6%)
Days on Market 21 (+2.0%) 21 37 (-43.0%)
Days of Inventory 25 (+117.1%) 12 47 (-46.5%)

And the numbers from last month for comparison:

Trends At a Glance Dec 2017 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,293,690 (+0.4%) $1,288,500 $960,000 (+34.8%)
Average Price $1,556,330 (-3.9%) $1,619,100 $1,186,120 (+31.2%)
No. of Sales 704 (-11.1%) 792 746 (-5.6%)
Pending 515 (-32.1%) 758 544 (-5.3%)
Active 271 (-41.2%) 461 694 (-61.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 109.3% (+0.8%) 108.5% 101.2% (+8.0%)
Days on Market 21 (-3.5%) 22 34 (-39.3%)
Days of Inventory 12 (-31.6%) 17 28 (-58.6%)

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Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose - the proximity of parks will impact the Santa Teresa real estate market for that neighborhood

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

How’s the market in the scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose? The part of Silicon Valley is usually a bit “softer” as it’s farther from most work places and the school scores are generally not super strong, either. That being said, the Santa Teresa real estate market, like most of Santa Clara County, has been hot since before 2017. The average Days on Market are low at 27 days. The sales to list price ratio remains well over list price at 107.1%. This shows that this seller’s market has only cooled a fraction since last month. Santa Teresa is in a stable, hot seller’s market.

Here’s quick view of the real estate statistic and trends for just the Santa Teresa area’s single family homes (houses / duet homes):

Santa Teresa real estate market stats & trends

Trends At a Glance Jan 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $965,000 (-4.0%) $1,005,000 $850,000 (+13.5%)
Average Price $981,036 (+0.2%) $978,761 $832,273 (+17.9%)
No. of Sales 14 (+7.7%) 13 11 (+27.3%)
Pending 14 (+16.7%) 12 (+55.6%)
Active (+40.0%) 5 10 (-30.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 107.1% (-1.5%) 108.7% 101.3% (+5.7%)
Days on Market 27 (+151.1%) 11 30 (-9.9%)
Days of Inventory 15 (+30.0%) 12 27 (-45.0%)

And from last month, for comparison, the Santa Teresa real estate market:

Trends At a Glance Dec 2017 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,005,000 (+5.8%) $950,000 $829,000 (+21.2%)
Average Price $978,761 (+3.5%) $945,578 $827,923 (+18.2%)
No. of Sales 13 (-43.5%) 23 13 (0.0%)
Pending 12 (-7.7%) 13 12 (0.0%)
Active (-16.7%) 6 (-44.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 108.7% (+3.1%) 105.5% 100.6% (+8.1%)
Days on Market 11 (-8.6%) 12 19 (-41.8%)
Days of Inventory 12 (+52.5%) 8 21 (-44.4%)

You can read the Santa Teresa area real estate market report at this link if you’d like more details and statistical analysis. This particular page goes to the report for houses, but you can navigate home type to see condos/townhomes or any other area in San Jose, Santa Clara County, San Mateo County, or Santa Cruz County.

 Also, please note that zip codes don’t always relate to the districts. Zip code 95138 is a great example of that as part of it is in Santa Teresa and part in Evergreen (pricey and upscale Silver Creek). Pull up the averages for 95138 and you might think all the homes are selling for around $1.4 million. But if you look in the charming but more affordable Silver Leaf area of the same zip code, you’ll find the cost half as much – or less! So too with 95123 (though less dramatic) as about half of that is in Blossom Valley and part in Santa Teresa.
It’s good to do a lot of research, but beware the “easy answers” of price per square foot or average sales price per zip code. Often your best help will come from a highly experienced real estate professional who’s willing to help you to crunch the numbers for the Santa Teresa real estate market (boring grunt work but not actually difficult).
And don’t forget the condo market! This can be even more difficult to pin down because of the small amount of data and the wide variety of values. Here’s a quick look at the current Santa Teresa condo market from the RE Report data:
Trends At a Glance Jan 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $725,000 (-5.8%) $770,000 $672,284 (+7.8%)
Average Price $724,400 (-5.9%) $770,000 $666,524 (+8.7%)
No. of Sales (+400.0%) 1 (-44.4%)
Pending 12 (+33.3%) 9 11 (+9.1%)
Active (+100.0%) 1 12 (-83.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 111.9% (-0.4%) 112.4% 100.1% (+11.8%)
Days on Market (+135.0%) 4 46 (-79.5%)
Days of Inventory 12 (-60.0%) 30 40 (-70.0%)
Disclaimers made, here are some Altos Research numbers for the four Santa Teresa zip codes:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

You’ll note that one of the four zips is super high – this is 95138, which has a number of homes in The Ranch, a subdivision in Evergreen near Silver Creek. The part of 95138 which is in Santa Teresa is considerably more affordable, well under $1 million in the vast majority of cases. So let’s take that one out so we can get a better feel for the true pricing of Santa Teresa homes.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Here two of the zip codes seem to be on track with each other, but 95123 is going at a different pace. Half of that area is Blossom Valley, which tends to be a stronger market. Regardless, it would seem that overall, the median list price of homes for sale in Santa Teresa has gone from the mid 700 thousands to the mid 800 thousands over the last year, now hanging out close to the 900 mark. And that’s about what I have seen, anecdotally, too.

Santa Teresa homes for sale

Interested in buying a house, townhouse or condominium in the Santa Teresa area? Below, please check out a list of available properties, listed in order of most recently added to the MLS first. Or better yet, call or email me to discuss working together!

 

  1. 5 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,149 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,614 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,360 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,342 sqft
  3. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,488 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,534 sqft
  4. 2 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 1,014 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,364 sqft
  5. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,308 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,642 sqft

See all Real estate in the Santa Teresa community.
(all data current as of 2/18/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Evergreen area of San Jose (Silicon Valley)The Evergreen area is in the southeast foothills of San Jose and extends north toward Eastridge Mall. It includes a few zip codes – 95148, 95121, 95135, and a portion of 95138 (part is also “Santa Teresa” or “South San Jose”). There’s a lot of diversity in this region – the areas in the flatlands near the Mall, Reid-Hillview Airport, and waterpark are more modest and affordable as compared to the areas further south where you’re more likely to see luxury properties (Hillstone, Bel-Aire Estates, The Meadowlands, The Ranch on Silver Creek, Silver Creek Valley Country Club and nearby). Pricier areas feature larger lots and houses and valley or hillside views set near the golf courses (Silver Creek Valley Country Club, The Ranch Golf Club, and the Villages Golf & Country Club).

In general, Evergreen is scenic and includes many newer homes and communities. Many people enjoy the relative newness of construction and whole neighborhoods which are young, compared to the rest of Santa Clara County and Silicon Valley as a whole.

Evergreen real estate market for single family homes or houses

Please find the full report on my Real Estate Report for the Evergreen area of San Jose.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

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How’s the Cupertino real estate market?

Cupertino - view from Ridge Vineyards

Cupertino – view from Ridge Vineyards

The real estate market in Silicon Valley can sometimes be a little quirky, so I like to approach this question from a few angles. In this article I’ll make use of  my charts from Altos Research, which uses listing data (not solds) and is automatically updated every week and also monthly reports from my RE Report subscription. Also I’ll periodically update it with info from the MLS that I have crunched myself or anecdotal stories from those of us “in the trenches.” The article is a bit long but I think much more comprehensive giving the multiple methods of answering the question of how the Cupertino real estate market is faring.

Cupertino median list price of houses by price quartile

Often the real estate market in any given city is very different between the most expensive homes and the most affordable ones. While many Cupertino home buyers are looking for a short commute, great public schools or strong resale value, some seek a luxury property with a view in the Cupertino hills (either off of Montevina Road by Ridge Vineyards or in other lower foothills).
Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The last few months have had some ups and downs in pricing, but most segments of the Cupertino real estate market have seen an overall uptick since last year. The luxury market in Cupertino had some calming over summer, but is back on the rise again. What if we look back more than a year? Combining the quartiles, it seems that there’s been more up than down.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

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How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.

First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.

The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”

(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)

Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts.

2A - Saratoga, CA, Real Estate Market Update

And for comparison, here’s the chart from last month:

2A - Saratoga, CA, Real Estate Market Update

This month shows a the charts look bizarre. The overall MOI has lept up to 6, which is usually considered a balanced market or even a buyer’s market. But is that really the case here? Well, the months of inventory are determined by dividing the number of listings active by the number of sales. If you look at where the listings are and compare it to the sales, we can tell that while the highest price point, $5+ million, is a very slow, buyer’s market, which is common, the minute inventory which exists across other price points are selling as well as past months. Because the inventory across other price points is so small, this month’s data is hard to calculate, so this is when it is best to look a little farther back for general pricing. As always, each property is unique, so this chart is just a guide and finding the right price to list or offer requires closer inspection and is best done with the help of a qualified agent.

While the chart this month may not have the most helpful data for analysis, by comparing across school districts you can still see how different each area’s individual market can be. The overall MOI for different school districts this month ranges from 10, where all of the $5+ properties are, to indetermineable, where there was no inventory and one sale in the Fremont Union district. Small levels of inventory can create big data swings and make for less accurate charts, nevertheless, we can still spot trends if we know where to look.

 

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How is the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market? Here are the numbers, but what do those numbers mean? The sales vs list price remains well over 100%, up at 108.8% though it is a drop since last December, and the average days on market are a low 13 days. Campbell is in a strong seller’s market.

Further down in this article, we’ll utilize the graphs from Altos Research, which uses list prices, and check out the trends in pricing by quartile in this zip code (meaning 4 groups based on the pricing tier from least to most expensive). Campbell condominiums and townhomes will be considered as well. And finally, a list of homes for sale in Campbell will be found at the bottom of the post.

First, here are some quick stats, care of my RE Report for Campbell:

What about the Campbell CA condo market?

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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
Silicon Valley:
Santa Clara County,
San Mateo County, and
Santa Cruz County.
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Special focus on:
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Saratoga, Campbell,
Almaden Valley,
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Top 25 real estate blogs of 2018 by RentPrep2018 RentPrep.com's list of top 25 real estate blogs to follow


Top 25 real estate blogs 2016
2016: Personal Income's list of top 25 real estate blogs.


Best Realtor blog award
2016: Coastal Group OC's list of best Realtor blogs


The 2009 Sellsius list of top 12 women real estate bloggers
2009: Sellsius list of top
12 women real estate bloggers


Mary Pope-Handy's Live in Los Gatos blog won the 2007 Project Blogger contest, sponsored by Inman News and Active Rain

2007: Mary Pope-Handy and Frances Flynn Thorsen win the Project Blogger Contest for Mary's Live in Los Gatos blog. The contest was sponsored by
Active Rain and Inman News.


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Best real estate agent in Silicon Valley from the San Jose Mercury News poll of readers in 2011
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