Almaden Valley (SJ)
Almaden Valley San Jose
How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a hot “seller’s market” overall. But look closer and you can see there are clear market micro-climates. Prices are better for sellers, while buyers struggle with higher prices and less homes to choose from.
Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale
Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory. What’s happening?
First, let’s see what “usually” happens in the 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale. Here’s a look at the last 10 years (all available history), care of Altos Research:
Here you can see that inventory has regular peaks and dips. Inventory tends to rise early each year and peak in mid to late summer. After the peak is a decline through autumn and winter with the lowest point in the coldest part of the year before turning around again before spring.
Now let’s look up close at just the last 3 years.
As usual, our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later – at least, that happened until 2017. This year, inventory stayed up longer than usual, not going as low in winter as expected, but instead fell later, when the market is usually heating up! Rather than rising to a peak again in summer, it looks like inventory is continuing to drop or at least remain extraordinarily low. We have hit the bottom (hopefully), but inventory won’t necessarily increase as the year progresses, if seasonal trends are followed. Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.
What does it cost to buy a home with really good schools in Silicon Valley? Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino and Palo Alto are all areas with highly regarding public schools. These aren’t the only areas with good schools but they are popular “west valley” areas that people may consider if working for Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook or any number of high tech employers.
Los Gatos and Saratoga both have multiple school districts, running from good to very good or excellent. The cost of housing tends to follow the popularity of the district, so for those areas I’m showing the breakdown not just for the whole town of Los Gatos but also by the high school district (Los Gatos-Saratoga or Campbell Union High School District). Same with Saratoga. (The Monte Sereno real estate market is very similar to Los Gatos, but slightly more expensive. Most of Monte Sereno has Los Gatos schools, but a small number of homes are in the Campbell area.)
Here are the average numbers for single family homes sold in the last 60 days ranging from 1500 – 2500 square feet, on a lot between 5000 and 10,000 SF, with 3-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms to give a sense of what it would cost to purchase a typical house in these areas. Please note that right now it’s a strong seller’s market, so many (if not most or all) homes are selling for more than the list price. DOM stands for days on the market.
If you are new to Santa Clara County, you may be wondering if this is correct. The cost to buy a home in these areas is what?
- Los Gatos: approximately $1,500,000 to $2,150,000 depending on the school district
- Saratoga: approximately $1,700,000 to about $2,500,000 depending on the schools
- Cupertino: approx $2,000,000 (some high schools will bring in higher prices and others lower)
- Palo Alto: approx $2,700,000 – $3,000,000
Remember, these prices do not mean that the houses being sold are perfect. Because it is a strong seller’s market, many properties are being sold which need new roofing, extensive pest work, remodeling, perhaps updating of electrical or plumbing systems or more. Many home buyers will need to spend 1-2% on things like termite fumigation, dry rot or roof repairs, carpets, paint, windows and more, and usually this will be done before they move in. So whatever the budget is, buffer it a little bit for both money and time to make it turnkey.
To compare, here’s the same chart, following the same criteria, taken in April 2014. See what’s changed:
For people relocating to Silicon Valley from out of the San Jose or Peninsula area, this real estate market can be daunting. There are other areas with good schools which are a bit further from most employment areas which can be an alternative, too. They include the Cambrian 95124 and Almaden 95120 (especially the southern area with Bret Harte Middle School and Leland High School) areas within San Jose.
Finally, in some cases, it may be more affordable to make use of private schools, which are plentiful in the San Francisco Bay area. In some situations it can be financially more affordable to buy outside of the highly competitive areas with the best schools and utilize the private school system. Some of the private schools are religious, some secular, and some with a language focus (bilingual in French, German, Chinese, etc.).
Interested in purchasing a home in one of these fantastic communities? Please call or email me! 408 204-7673 or mary (at) popehandy.com
$1,925,000 : 19711 Bixby DR, CUPERTINO4 beds, 2 baths
$759,000 : 10202 Danube DR, CUPERTINO1 bed, 1 bath
$2,100,000 : 10380 Lockwood DR, CUPERTINO0 beds, 0 bath
$1,368,000 : 10175 Potters Hatch CIR, CUPERTINO3 beds, 3 baths
$1,495,000 : 18964 Pendergast AVE, CUPERTINO3 beds, 2 baths
$2,188,000 : 22647 Oakcrest CT, CUPERTINO4 beds, 3 baths
$1,488,000 : 7552 Shadowhill LN, CUPERTINO3 beds, 2 baths
$1,688,888 : 10241 Miller AVE, CUPERTINO3 beds, 2 baths
$1,988,000 : 20094 Merritt DR, CUPERTINO4 beds, 3 baths
$1,699,000 : 1107 Kentwood AVE, CUPERTINO4 beds, 3 baths
See all Real estate in the city of Cupertino.
(all data current as of 8/21/2017)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
The Almaden Valley real estate market is still in a stable sellers market. Winter brought about a steep drop in inventory, and summer failed to bring enough new listings to fulfill demand. There must be either a lot more inventory, or significantly less demand, before we see anything close to a balanced market. The Almaden Valley market is noticing minor softening, with homes selling, on average, slightly above list price at 102.6%. Turnover has dropped slightly to an average of 18 days on market (or DOM). This tells us that while there may be a slight warming trend, Almaden Valley is in a sustained, hot sellers market.
Please find the current statistics for single family homes (houses & duet homes) from my Almaden Valley real estate report (click on link for more info).
Almaden Valley San Jose 95120 Real Estate Statistics At A Glance
|Trends At a Glance||Jul 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,427,500 (-4.7%)||$1,497,650||$1,317,500 (+8.3%)|
|Average Price||$1,520,940 (-10.0%)||$1,690,230||$1,414,840 (+7.5%)|
|No. of Sales||32 (-23.8%)||42||32 (0.0%)|
|Pending||27 (-18.2%)||33||34 (-20.6%)|
|Active||24 (0.0%)||24||71 (-66.2%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||102.6% (+1.7%)||100.9%||99.8% (+2.7%)|
|Days on Market||18 (-12.0%)||20||29 (-38.8%)|
|Days of Inventory||23 (+35.8%)||17||67 (-66.2%)|
And from last month:
|Trends At a Glance||Jun 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,497,650 (+7.2%)||$1,396,650||$1,416,500 (+5.7%)|
|Average Price||$1,690,230 (+17.4%)||$1,440,010||$1,499,640 (+12.7%)|
|No. of Sales||42 (+10.5%)||38||36 (+16.7%)|
|Pending||33 (-23.3%)||43||39 (-15.4%)|
|Active||24 (+14.3%)||21||67 (-64.2%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||100.9% (-3.6%)||104.7%||102.5% (-1.6%)|
|Days on Market||20 (+66.1%)||12||21 (-4.7%)|
|Days of Inventory||17 (0.0%)||17||54 (-69.3%)|
The data shows a strong sellers market remaining fairly consistent despite increasing inventory over the summer. The best homes will see multiple offers, a response to low inventory and high demand.
Altos Research charts for houses in Almaden (San Jose 95120)
Please note that Altos Research uses list prices of Almaden Valley homes for sale, not sold prices.
|90-day stats for Single Family properties in|
SAN JOSE, CA 95120 as of August 18, 2017
|Median List Price:||$1,611,554||Average List Price:||$1,915,971|
|Total Inventory:||27||Price per Square Foot:||$604|
|Average Home Size:||2,629||Median Lot Size:||9,959|
|Average # Beds:||4.35||Average # Baths:||3.16|
|Homes Absorbed:||8||Newly Listed:||7|
|Days on Market:||37||Average Age:||37|
Luxury home sales are going like crazy in the west valley areas of Santa Clara County. Right now in Almaden Valley, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga, there are 105 houses for sale listed at or more than two million dollars (just checked MLSListings.com), and in the last 30 days 56 have sold and closed escrow in those same areas and price ranges. For the Almaden – Saratoga region generally, then, there are 1.88 months of inventory in the over two million dollar price range (105/56). That makes it a strong seller’s market. Things have certainly livened up a lot since October. (In the same region, there are 25 pending sales.)
Next we’ll look at these four Silicon Valley communities separately to see how the luxury market in each one is faring overall.
Almaden Valley (San Jose, 95120)
Currently in Almaden there are 9 houses for sale which are listed at or over $2,000,000. In the last 30 days, 8 sold in that price range (with two sales pending). That makes for just over 1.13 “months of inventory.” That would mean this luxury market has rapid turnover and is in a strong seller’s market. It’s a deep seller’s market in Almaden Valley among the most expensive real estate offerings for sale. Five to six months is balanced and over six is a buyer’s market. Continue reading
One question I get a lot is this: what does it cost to buy a 4 bedroom, 2 bath house of about 2000 square feet?
So to answer this question, let’s see what houses like this are selling for (4 bed, 2 bath, appx 2000 SF or 185 square meters) and see how the cost looks in one Santa Clara Count y / Silicon Valley area versus another.
Today I compared several areas and cities using this criteria: single family homes of 1800 – 2200 SF, 3-5 bedrooms, 2-3 bathrooms, on lot sizes of 6000 SF to 10,000 SF. Normally I would chart this over the last 2 months, or 60 days, but because of the low inventory causing the sellers market I have expanded the search to the last 3 months, or 90 days, for a better range. As of this writing, Saratoga only had one sale over the last 90 days, so data for that segment may or may not be a good average.
Here’s how it shakes out in the “west valley areas” along the Highway 85 corridor, most of which are known to have good to great public schools. What areas are most affordable? One way of analyzing this is the “price per square foot” figure. Whenever I update the chart, I re-arrange the order of the cities from high to low based on the price per square foot, although there’s usually minimal movement.
To compare, here are the numbers from the this past January 26, 2017. There were fewer sales, so the search range was bumped up to 120 days instead of 90 days (and Los Altos was so low, it was individually searched at 180 days). You might notice price per square foot appears lower across the board in January compared to July. This is most likely because the market has heated up over spring and summer, which you can also see in the DOM.
Below are my results from the same search back in September 18, 2015. By comparison, you can tell that Santa Clara’s average Price has increased, pushing it above Almaden and Campbell.
How competitive is the market? Have a look at the DOM or “Days on Market” figure. All of these days on market are short, but they range from low to heart-skippingly fast.
In most cases, the priciest and most desirable places have either the best schools or shortest commute location or both (Palo Alto and Cupertino have both). Had I ranked these for school scores, you’d find that Cambrian is fairly high up and a good “bang for the buck” location – though not a super short commute for folks who work in Mountain View (though not so bad for people working in Cupertino). Almaden, too, offers a good value for the quality of the schools, homes, and neighborhoods, though the commute is longer. None of these is especially close to North San Jose (where a major employer is Cisco).
It should also be noted that in some of the smaller communities with less on the market these numbers may not be as stable as others with more data – for instance, Los Altos only had four homes sold, the second lowest, matching this criteria within the 90 days of collected data, and therefore may not be as accurate as others, such as the Blossom Valley area of San Jose with the most data at 38 homes sold. For these smaller communities with less data, it is beneficial to look at them more closely – Saratoga, for instance, has 3 different high school districts which have an impact the real estate prices. This chart is really just a snapshot to give a general sense of the relative affordability of these markets to one another. Continue reading
Located close to the Guadalupe Creek and the foothills of the coastal mountain range, the Montevideo neighborhood enjoys tree lined streets and scenic green views of the hills. Houses and yards are nicely kept. It is fairly convenient for commuting as it’s not too deeply into the San Jose area of Almaden Valley. About 500 residents call this beautiful neighborhood home.
In addition to the pleasant vistas, the Montevideo home owners and residents enjoy the cabaña, which includes a community pool, clubhouse, recreation grounds (shuffleboard, volleyball court and more), a fun swim team for kids. There are very few cabañas in the west valley, so this is a big draw.
Adjacent is the very highly regarded Guadalupe Elementary School, which can boast API scores in the 900s (it was 941 in the 2013 study). Continue reading
With fabulous views, exceptionally high ranking schools and beautiful newer construction, the Graystone and Pfeiffer Ranch neighborhoods in San Jose’s Almaden Valley are perennially desirable.
Recently I was in the neighborhood and took a couple of photos which feature Mt. Umunhum.
And one more:
The neighborhood also enjoys a park along the creek with a playground to enjoy on days with better weather.
Not sure if you’ve been to this scenic part of San Jose’s Almaden Valley? Here’s where to find it (this is where I took today’s pictures):
Current listings in Graystone:
Sorry, but we couldn't find any results in the MLS that match the specified search criteria.
Current listings in Almaden Valley:
$1,488,000 : 7160 Echo Ridge DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
$1,595,000 : 1128 Rhinecastle WAY, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
$1,799,000 : 1251 Chateau DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
$1,295,000 : 1480 Montelegre DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
$1,649,000 : 1196 Nikette WAY, SAN JOSE4 beds, 2 baths
$2,388,888 : 7162 Wooded Lake DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
$1,175,000 : 1296 Oakglen WAY, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
$1,950,000 : 7045 Huntsfield CT, SAN JOSE4 beds, 5 baths
$789,000 : 6536 Cobblestone CT, SAN JOSE2 beds, 2 baths
$1,195,000 : 6085 Mcabee RD, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
See all Real estate in the Almaden Valley community.
(all data current as of 8/21/2017)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
The Oaktree Park neighborhood in San Jose is a scenic residential community with wide appeal to home buyers due to good Almaden schools, close proximity to large parks and is one of only a few areas in Almaden Valley which includes a cabaña and swim team. Additionally, this area is very convenient as it’s close to schools, shops and commute routes to downtown San Jose and much of Silicon Valley. It is a fairly intimate neighborhood with 156 homes.
Where is the Oaktree Park neighborhood?
The Oaktree Park subdivision is within the boundaries of Meridian Avenue, Redmond Avenue and Mcabbe Road on three sides and the Jeffrey Fontana Park on the north side.
The census bureau (and perhaps also the city of San Jose) has attributed names to some parts of Almaden and this neighborhood falls into the Crossgates section. I do not believe that most residents refer to this area that way, though. Perhaps more likely they’d call it part of the greater Fontana Park neighborhood.
What schools serve the Oaktree Park neighborhood in San Jose?
The public schools for Oaktree Park are within the San Jose Unified School District:
Los Alamitos Elementary School (API 935 in 2013)
Castillero Middle School (API 846 in 2013)
Pioneer High School (API 822 in 2013)
Los Alamitos Elementary and Holy Spirit Elementary (Catholic) are both just a couple of blocks from Oaktree Park. Additonally there are 2 preschools really close too: Precious Preschool and Shepherd of the Valley Lutheran Preschool.
For more information and links for schools, school districts, API scores and maps of boundaries lines for schools in the Almaden area of San Jose, please also read:
What are homes like in Oaktree Park?
Homes in Oaktree Park are single family dwellings – all detached houses (no townhouses or condominiums). These are primarily ranch style or two story ranch style houses, built in the early 1970s on lots of about 8000 to 9000 square feet, though a few are more than that. Interior size runs between about 1600 square feet to about 3000 square feet (if added on). Prices may be in the mid 600s for a smaller home, needing work and a less desirable location (such as on a busy road or immediately adjacent to the high voltage power lines that run through the park) to perhaps a little over a million dollars for a beautifully updated or rebuilt larger home in an ideal location within the neighborhood. In the current market (June 2017), smaller homes are going between the mid $900s to the mid $1.1 million mark and larger homes are selling between $1.2-$1.3 million.
More information on the Oaktree Park neighborhood below!
Often I have clients who are interested in purchasing a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a good school district in Silicon Valley, particularly in the South Bay and West Valley areas. Tonight I did a study on the MLS of homes that have sold and closed escrow in the last 4 months with these characteristics:
- single family home (house)
- 4 bedrooms
- 2 bathrooms
- 1800 to 2200 square feet of living space
- 6000 to 10,000 sf lot
Disclaimers aside, here are the numbers for select West Valley Communities in the West/South Bay area with good schools. The first number is the average sales price per square foot, the second number is the average sales price:
And a look at the chart from all back in 2015…
And all the way back in 2011. What’s changed? A lot! The order has shifted some, showing where demand has increased or decreased. Most noticeably, the prices are significantly lower in 2011 than they are now. The 2015 chart shows prices somewhere in-between the 2011 and 2017 levels. Palo Alto and Los Altos remain consistently in the top two positions.
The home prices tend to run with the school district API scores. You can check the 2013, three year average, API scores in Santa Clara County for both the districts and the individual schools online here. Continue reading
Almaden Valley in San Jose is comprised of many neighborhoods and subdivisions. One of them, close to the border with Los Gatos and Cambrian Park, is particularly popular: the Oak Canyon neighborhood.
There are many reasons for its draw among Silicon Valley home buyers: the houses were well built by Shea Homes in about 1980, so they are relatively newer by Silicon Valley standards. They’re larger homes on comfortable lots, often 8000 sf or so but some as small as 6500 sf and others larger than a quarter acre in the Oak Canyon corner of Almaden.
Most of the homes boast a 3 car garage, which is a big help with storage of stuff, if not storage of cars. The roads gently turn, which makes a more pleasing look. It’s a very “conforming” neighborhood where everyone keeps up the homes and yards. Much of Almaden is viewed by consumers as somewhat remote, but this section, near the mouth of Almaden, is not too deep into the valley and is a better commute location for most. One of the largest pulls for the area, though, is the nearby elementary school, Guadalupe School, which has API scores in the 900s.
Where is the Oak Canyon neighborhood in Almaden Valley, San Jose?
Oak Canyon is found near the intersection of Camden Avenue and Coleman Road in San Jose but is bordered by Coleman on one side and the Guadalue Creek on the other sides. (The far side of the Guadalupe Creek at this point is Cambrian Park.)
And to provide some bearings, here’s a map of the Almaden Valley district of San Jose generally: