How’s the San Jose real estate market for condos in Cambrian Park?  Let’s have a look at some of the numbers from my Real Estate Report):

As you can see, inventory is way down year over year - it’s down by 2/3!  The market is largely about supply & demand.  Right now, home buyers know that interest rates are poised to rise (one half to one full percent) sometime this year, so many are finally jumping off the fence and wishing they’d done this a year ago. 

Sellers, meanwhile, are not happy about the new, low prices so are holding off on selling.  Hence, we are experiencing a shortage of supply. 
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It is a fairly strong seller’s market in the Cambrian Park area of San Jose.  Sales are up, inventory is down, and the list price to sales price ratio is at almost 102%.  Days on market are down for houses (which make up most of the market).  Some indicators are still negative but most are improving.

 Here are the numbers from my online Silicon Valley Real Estate Report for single family homes - houses & duet homes (click on the link for the whole report):

And for the condo and townhouse market in Cambrian Park, things are looking up quite dramatically, with prices even higher than a year ago:
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This week one of my buyers asked me about the inventory levels in Santa Clara County (San Jose, specificially) and wondered if they’re lower than usual.  I get this question a lot lately so wanted to present the numbers to the readers of this Valley of Hearts Delight Blog. 

How low is the inventory? It’s way off from last year in most parts of the west valley. But remember, last year was unusual.  (Below are the numbers for single family homes, or houses.)

How much is this year’s inventory off from the average of the last 6 years?

Almaden: down appx 10%
Cambrian: down appx 18%
Campbell: down appx 20%
Los Gatos: up appx 6%
Saratoga: up appx 38%

Once again, “easy answers” allude us. 

If we were to push this further, we’d find that certain price points (or bands or strata) in the market are way above or below the typical numbers.  It is very hard to generalize accurately.  Anecdotally, though, it seems as though there’s very little on the market as far as my buyers are concerned (and right now, my buyers are looking at properties in Santa Clara County ranging from the 400s to between 1 and 2 million). 

For information on your particular situation, please contact me.

Single family homes in the more affordable price ranges seem to be flying off the market in the San Jose district of Almaden Valley.  For the last twelve weeks or so, the absorption rate or months of inventory in the 95120 zip code has been hovering around 2 - 3 months. That’s fast!  (6 months is a balanced market, less a sellers market, and more a buyers market.)

This comprehensive post will include data from three subscription based  sources.  First a summary of the October 2009 sold data (care of my RE Report ).  Then, with the aid of Clarus Market Metrics (a subscription through my MLS and real estate board), we’ll take a two year view of the Almaden real estate market, its months of inventory and supply & demand ratios.  Then we’ll incorporate data from Altos Research, another subscription service I utilize, to look at the data for listed homes today, broken down by price quartile (since what may be happening in Almaden overall may not be the experience in a subset of this market).

Fewer homes are coming on the market now, so the old inventory is getting absorbed.  Prices often are getting pushed up in multiple offers if the home sells quickly (in 3 - 4 weeks).
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The Alta Vista neighborhood, which sits along the border of Los Gatos and the Cambrian Park district of San Jose, is very highly sought after and valued for many, many reasons. Real estate prices vary depending upon the precise location within the neighborhood as well as the size and condition of the home.

Why is this area so popular?  Most of the streets close to Alta Vista School are beautifully tree-lined, and from virtually everywhere in the neighborhood, you are close to Blossom Hill (that’s the name of the hill, not just the name of the road!).  Homes are well kept, streets are wide enough, and except when there’s a school function, there really aren’t too many cars on the street. It is very scenic, pleasant and uncrowded feeling.  Although you’re in the city or town, you feel close to the country there.

Additionally, many homebuyers select this area because the school scores are high and because it’s easy to get to the elementary and middle schools without crossing any major streets: that is a big plus!  It is also a quick drive to highway 85, just a couple of miles to the Los Gatos shopping areas (at Los Gatos Blvd and Blossom Hill Road) or to Vasona Lake County Park.  For many, it’s a way to be close to Los Gatos while paying less expensive San Jose prices.

Prior to being developed for housing, this spot at the base of Blossom Hill was once blanketed in orchards and was scenic enough that it was part of the “blossom tours” that used to take place at the height of the flowering.  Hence, one large section of this neighborhood has street names that begin with “blossom”.

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San Jose’s westside suburb of Cambrian Park appears to have “bottomed out” in February or March.  Home prices are rising there now, at least in many price points.   Cambrian consists of two zip codes, 95124 and 95118 (and a sliver of 95008) and two high school districts, Campbell Union High School District and San Jose Unified School District.

The “months of inventory” reflects how long the current inventory of homes for sale would take to be absorbed if sales continued at the same pace and no new homes came on the market. Six months is a balanced market more than six is a buyer’s market, and less than six is a seller’s market.

As you can see, it’s a seller’s market in Cambrian Park in both school districts!  (This may not be true for all homes in all prices and all conditions, but it is indicative of the overal market.)

With inventory selling really fast, it is not surprising that prices are rising.  Below please view the Altos Report (to which I have a subscription) for the last 6 months:

This is a little busy, but here’s the same data but broken down by price quartile:

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Now is a great time to buy a home in Silicon Valley: interest rates are incredibly low (and clearly will not stay that way forever - they never do!).  Depending on your desired or required price range and area, the market varies in terms of how much of a bargain you can get. Please understand that buyers are not 100% in charge, though, and sellers are not “giving away” their homes.

Recently I saw a buyer request for a Cambrian Park home. The buyer in question wanted a 3 bed, 2 bath home in the 95124 area with the very best schools. So far, so good. The buyer expected to pay between $200,000 and $500,000 for this home - and unfortunately, that is just not terribly realistic. What he or she wants may be close to $550,000 but if the home is on a standard lot (not a patio home) in good shape, and has no issues (no high voltage lines, no busy road, no converted garage), it wil not be less than $500,000, even if it’s a bank owned property.

In Los Gatos, it is very unlikely to get a good 3 or 4 bedroom, 2 bath home “in the schools” for less than $1,350,000 unless there are issues such as deferred maintenance, bad neighbors, weird floorplan, remodeling needed, busy road, backs to something undesireable, etc.   A really fixed up, turnkey home will probably cost close to 1.4 or 1.5  million if it’s “in the schools”.

In Saratoga, it’s unlikely to get that same home for less than $1,400,000.
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