The tide is turning for Silicon Valley real estate: fewer listings are coming onto the market and more homes are being purchased by homebuyers anxious to get into a house before interest rates rise and the $8000 first time homebuyer’s credit expires.
The shift is most visible in areas with the most affordability, but even is more upscale, higher priced areas, it’s still a noticeable change.
Today I’ll share with you a series of graphs, by area, of single family homes in terms of new listings, current inventory, and pending sales (sales under contract). These were created using our mls system (information deemed reliable but not guaranteed).
Here’s the “key” (since if I put it alongside each image it would not fit without making all of it unreadable):
Description of each graph is ABOVE the image.
Almaden Valley (95120 area of San Jose) – this is a more expensive part of Santa Clara County, but the market improvement is very clear. Cool market.
Blossom Valley (95123 and 95136 zip codes, an area of San Jose) – this is a very affordable part of Silicon Valley and has taken a huge hit on the “price rollback”. But it’s getting better now – note the rise in sales, low number of new homes coming on the market and overall lessening of inventory. Number of pendings is almost the same as the total inventory. Hot market.
Cambrian Park (95124 & 95118 area of San Jose) – trends among listings, inventory, and sales for single family homes. The trend of less inventory and more sales is quite evident. Warm market overall – very hot under $500,000, cool in higher price ranges. (But hot only if prices are deeply reduced.)
Campbell (zip code 95008) – sales are up, new listings are declining, overall inventory is getting absorbed.
Cupertino – upscale Cupertino has improvement with numbers of sales and new listings are dropping off a bit, resulting in a slight trend change.
Evergreen – the Evergreen area of San Jose is a mix. Parts are very expensive and some are very middle-class or entry level. This is one of the most dramatic change in available inventory anywhere in Santa Clara County. New listings are nearly non-existent and there are nearly as many pendings as there are available homes. The “good odds” and low level of oncoming listings probably has a lot to do with the deep pricing cuts there. Many sellers would rather wait then sell now. Very warm to hot market in lower price ranges.
Los Gatos (area “16” which also includes Monte Sereno) – The same trend can be seen for increased numbers of sales, but on a lesser scale. If we were to break this down by price point and school district, though, we’d find that there’s a big difference from place to place within Los Gatos. There are many “micro markets” in the town. Biggest challenge: overpriced homes that aren’t selling because the buyers simply won’t pay that much today for most of the homes on the market. Cold Market
Monte Sereno is a very pricey part of Santa Clara County. With just about 4000 residents, it is often viewed the same as Los Gatos but it’s a bit more expensive. Overall inventory is declinging, but sales are not robust and new listings keep coming. Homebuyers, if you ever wanted to buy in Monte Sereno, now’s the time! Cold Market
Santa Teresa – entry level area of San Jose – more affordable homes, better price cuts – homes are selling. Market is hot!
Santa Clara -Santa Clara is a middle class city in the heart of Silicon Valley, with a diversity of areas, housing types, and price points from entry level to mid-range. It’s a good guage of how the valley’s doing as a whole. In the graph below, it is very clear that pendings are increasing (yellow), total inventory is decreasing slightly (orange) and new listings are not running rampant (red). This is fairly reflective of Santa Clara County as a whole. Overall market in Santa Clara is cool but improving.
Saratoga – like Monte Sereno, this cute city by the foothills is not for thin pocketbooks. While prices haven’t been pulled down severely, the numbers of sales are way down and new listings are still fairly high. Inventory is not being absorbed too well. Of course, if prices would be dropped a bit, sales would pick up, but many sellers are hoping to wait it out. Cold Market
Willow Glen – this quaint part of town features homes with a wide variety of styles, from those with unique, craftsman, Victorian, Spanish, mid-century modern or historic architecture to small bungalows and ranchette homes. Except in lowest price ranges, market is cool but improving.
In conclusion, the “Silicon Valley Real Estate Market” varies from place to place and price point to price point, but the overall trend is improving in terms of the number of sales and overall supply/demand. It’s really a split market, though. The lowest priced homes that are cute and priced well are flying off the market with multiple offers. The higher priced homes that are “testing the market” are just sitting. The lowest priced homes are now being driven UP, but the highest priced homes, in most areas, are still being pulled DOWN.