How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.

First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.

The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”

(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)

Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts.

And for comparison, here’s the chart from April:

This month shows slowly increasing inventory with increasing sales with a slightly decreasing MOI. The overall 1.333 MOI is a hot sellers market leading an active Spring season towards a hot Summer. By comparing across school districts you can see how different each area’s individual market can be. The overall MOI for different schools this month ranges from 0.417 to 2.235. Small levels of inventory can create big data swings and can make for less accurate charts. Nonetheless, we can still spot market trends if we know where to look.

 

 

Next – Saratoga with Saratoga Schools. Generally, this is a more stable market.

And from April:

This area holds its value well, which means you generally see less fluctuation and milder shifts in the market. This is where the majority of the Los Gatos market inventory is.

And now, Saratoga with Cupertino schools – the Fremont Union High School District. This is a SUPER TINY AREA, but even so, usually there’s at least a handful of houses. Because of the small numbers, the data can change very quickly and dramatically. With only five active and seven sold in the last 30 days, this chart shows how little data these charts may rely on.

And from April:

 

And lastly, Saratoga with Campbell Union High School District (Propsect High, Westmont High). Inventory and demand are usually in a completely different sector than the other districts – they appear almost solely in the entry level markets. Recently, inventory and demand has been creeping into the higher price-point market, with even one sale in the last month rising to the $5+ million range! The luxury market is usually all zeroes here, so it’s very surprising to find any sales for a home in the $5000000+ sector in this area.

And from April:

 

Next, let’s turn to the closed sales from last month.  This time we’re using data from a subscription service of mine to the RE Report.

Here are the real estate sales statistics for closed sales last month among houses and duet homes (if there are any) in the 95070 zip code (click on link to read the full Saratoga Real Estate Report for houses). Bottom line is that year-over-year, prices are up a bit, and most livable homes in Saratoga will now run between $2 and $2.5 million if they are mid sized (2000-3000 SF) and in the best schools area (Saratoga or Cupertino). Homes in the Campbell schools area, which have very strong elementary and middle schools, are far more affordable, and the entry level homes are often between $1 mil and $1.5, depending on size, condition, and location, closer to $1.5 mil to $2 mil in the current, heated market.

And for comparison, here’s the chart from last month:

 

Lastly, let’s see what we can glean from the Altos Research reports. These are updated weekly and use LIST PRICES, not sold prices. And of course, it’s citywide, and does not factor in school districts.

Altos Research – list prices for Saratoga CA 95070

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

It’s still costing around $2 million for a “typical” Saratoga house – whatever that might look like!
Homes are selling quickly but there’s no inventory. Inventory has risen slightly, and the number of sales is going up. The sale price to list price ratio has been hovering around 99-105% since the beginning of the year. The general picture: it’s a seller’s market in Saratoga for single family homes.

Median List Prices of Saratoga Houses for Sale by price point

Next, the median list prices for single family homes with a breakdown by price quartile. (Please note that the info would be even more precise if broken down by school district, but this particular program doesn’t yet filter by schools.) Properties across the board appear to be fairly level, keeping steady with some increase to the middle-ranges.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The strongest upward momentum appears to be in the top quartile. However, generally, it appears close to flat – so not really bad, and perhaps almost balanced in some cases.

Saratoga condo and townhouse market:

Next, please find the basic statistics for closed sales last month among townhouses & condominiums in the 95070 zip code (see the Saratoga Real Estate Report for condos & townhomes). The numbers of sales for this segment of the realty market are always small, so it can appear more volatile than is actually the case. For instance – this month only had one sold and closed. It hasn’t been much different looking back to recent months. This small inventory means data can quickly swing, so don’t trust the percentages in this chart too much.

And the chart from last month:

With condos, it’s very easy to feel alarmed at the numbers, but so few condominiums or town homes sell each month that it doesn’t take much to make the numbers get wonky. So as with the houses, we have to evaluate on a case-by-case basis. Because Saratoga has a number of school districts and property types (condos and town houses), you really need to zero in on the exact area, home type and size, as well as related issues such as condition before deciding that the market is rising or falling. If you are interested in buying or selling a condo or townhouse in Saratoga, don’t go it alone or rely on online stats – give me a call and we will crunch the numbers specifically for your home and pinpoint the pricing.

Median List Prices of Saratoga Condos for Sale

And now, list price of condos by price quartiles.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Interestingly, the condo market is heating up, and fast, with no decline in any sector and the steepest incline in the upper second price tier.

Additional trend charts for both single family homes and townhouses & condominiums

Inventory of both houses & condos in Saratoga

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

It’s seasonally typical to have more inventory in summer than other times of the year. Going back a few more years (see below), please note where the peaks are found – always sometime in summer. (Single family homes only.)

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

It’s less clear, but still visible, with condominiums and townhouses in Saratoga:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Average Days on Market for Saratoga Homes for Sale

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Houses by quartile is not much different – DOM was rising across all price points since August 2016 with a turnaround in January in the condo market and a steep reversal in both in March. Despite slower turnover, the market has remained hot and looks to get worse.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

It is strangely disjointed in the Saratoga Condo market, though. I can’t explain why this had been so “all over the board” based on just this data.

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

My suspicion is that the homes with the better schools are faring the best, but that’s just a hunch based on how well homes usually sell – it’s not provable with this info at hand.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a Saratoga home, please contact me. I’ll be happy to meet with you for a no obligation initial consultation.

Saratoga Real Estate Listings – Saratoga Homes for Sale – Condos, Townhouses & Houses for Sale in Saratoga

If you’d like to browse Saratoga homes for sale, I invite you to have a look here! Below please find all properties currently listed as available on our local MLS. Please be advised that there are a number of different property types and school districts listed here. For more precise information on houses, condos or town houses on the market, please contact me via email or complete a form at SiliconValleyHomeHunt.com or on my popehandy.com website. Either way it will come to me and I will personally set up your search for a Saratoga property. (If you are moving to the South Bay area from far away, please also see my Silicon Valley relocation website for helpful tips.)

  1. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,414 sq ft
    Lot size: 10,598 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 3,039 sq ft
    Lot size: 9,099 sqft
  3. 4 beds, 4 baths
    Home size: 2,442 sq ft
    Lot size: 8,398 sqft
  4. 3 beds, 4 baths
    Home size: 2,943 sq ft
    Lot size: 2,347 sqft
  5. 6 beds, 7 baths
    Home size: 6,427 sq ft
    Lot size: 43,560 sqft

See all Real estate in the city of Saratoga.
(all data current as of 6/22/2017)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 

Interested in buying or selling a home in Saratoga? I grew up there (and in Santa Clara), graduated from Saratoga High before heading off to college, and have been selling homes as a Saratoga Realtor – and nearby parts of Santa Clara County & Silicon Valley too –  since 1993. I understand the impact of Saratoga’s school districts on home buying decisions, the importance of various locations to market value, and resale concerns that can improve or detract from your return on investment.

Read more about my background on the Valley of Hearts Delight website (sister site to this blog) and learn why my past clients and other readers of the San Jose Mercury News named me “best real estate agent in Silicon Valley” in 2011. There you’ll also see my accomplishments/honors/awards, info on sales experience, and more.

Contact Mary Now 408 204-7673Or just take a moment to phone me at 408 204-7673, or email me at mary (at) popehandy (dot) com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Translation

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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


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Mary Pope-Handy's Live in Los Gatos blog won the 2007 Project Blogger contest, sponsored by Inman News and Active Rain

2007: Mary Pope-Handy and Frances Flynn Thorsen win the Project Blogger Contest for Mary's Live in Los Gatos blog. The contest was sponsored by
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