Every couple of weeks I update this post to bring fresh news and data on the Cambrian Park real estate market. On Dec 9th  I went onto the MLS and ran the “months of inventory” or absorption rate of houses and duet homes (what our MLS calls “class 1″)  in “area 14″ or Cambrian area of San Jose. This time I broke it down into price points as well as the type of sale (regular, short sale, bank owned)  so you can pinpoint the pricing for the various segments of the Cambrian market. (Reminder: months of inventory reflects how long it will take to sell a property if sales continue at the current rate. Six months or so is considered “balanced”. More is a buyer’s market and less is a seller’s.)

**please note – typo below – numbers were crunched December 9th, 2011, not December 10th.

Cambrian Park (San Jose) Months of Inventory by sale type & price point Dec 9, 2011

What’s selling? “Regular sales” – non distressed. Not faring so well? Short sales.  In many price points, although many are under contract or pending, FEW – sometimes none – are making it to the closing table.  We are hearing a lot about the streamlined processes for short sales, but these numbers hint at a different reality, namely that Silicon Valley and Cambrian short sales sell but often don’t close escrow.

What is the typical kind of home and price for these neighborhoods?  Of the homes which transferred ownership in the last 30 days, a typical house cost about $600,000, has about 1600 square feet and sits on a lot of around 6700 square feet (and is “partially updated”, not fully remodeled).  The price per square foot averaged $376 but ran from $205 (distressed and on a hugely busy road) to $513 (close to the hills near Almaden and Los Gatos).  If the home you want to buy or sell needs remodeling or is “all original” it’s probably going to sell for less. If it’s in a great area, is a regular sale and absolutely turnkey and fully remodeled, it’ll sell for more.  A beautifully remodeled Cambrian house with 3 bed, 2 bath and 1200 square feet can easily run $600,000 or more if it’s a regular sale and in a good area with no “issues” (high voltage lines, backing to busy road or school etc.).

What about the pending sales?

As of this morning, there are 95 houses & duet homes which are sale pending.  Of those, 39 are regular sales (a mere 41%!), 48 are short sales and 8 are bank owned properties (REOs).  How do the pendings compare to the homes sold?  Here’s a quick breakdown for all price ranges in “area 14″ of San Jose:

ALL types Pending – 95   Sold in last 30 days – 37
Regular sales – 39   Sold in last 30 days – 32
Short sales -  48   Sold in last 30 days – 1
Bank owned sales – 8   Sold in last 30 days – 2

This underlines the fact that the short sales are getting into contract…but just not getting to the closing table! Bank owned homes are better, but the ratio of pendings to closings is much, much better with regular sales.  This explains why the regular sales are the hottest ticket in Cambrian Park right now: buyers don’t want to just buy, they want to close!

Some sellers are borderline on being able to sell without either having to bring cash to the closing table or having to attempt a short sale.  What do these numbers suggest?  That if you really want to sell and can do it – you may be best off doing a regular sale, even if you need to bring money to the title company to make it work.   (This is general advice only, your own situation may be different – please consult with your Realtor, lawyer and tax advisor before deciding to do, or not to do, a short sale.)

Here’s a snapshot view what was happening in the 95124 and 95118 areas of San Jose as of December 2nd, 2011. (My last update for this part of San Jose -  a mini update.)

Cambrian Park (San Jose) quick real estate stats for houses Dec 2, 2011

Interestingly, the hottest segment of this market is not the distressed sales, but regular ones, which are being absorbed three times as fast as the short sales or bank owned homes on the market. And it’s understandable: REOs don’t provide any disclosures and may contain surprises after close of escrow, and short sales may never close.  Just look at the huge number of pendings as opposed to the short sales which actually become a finalized transaction!  We hear that the odds are improving on short sales closing, but this graph doesn’t validate that impression at all.

Cambrian San Jose Real Estate Trends & Statistics for Sold Homes

It’s been a “hot sellers market” in the Cambrian district of San Jose for many months now with most homes that sell going fairly close to list price (1-2% off on average).  That doesn’t mean that the best idea is to always offer less than list price, though, as many homes are selling at or above list price.

If we took a close look at what’s selling and closed recently, we would find that some Cambrian houses are selling for more than list price, some right at list price and others below or well under the offered price.  Some Cambrian real estate is listed strategically low in order to get multiple offers and drive the price up.  Some are overpriced and others are priced “right on the money”.

Data on real estate solds in Cambrian area of San Jose, for November, October, September and August 2011 among houses from my Real Estate Report:

Next, October:

September:

Next, August (note that prices were higher, pending prices were higher in August as opposed to September).

Inventory is down about 32% from a year ago.  Prices are down, too, both year over year and month over month. Even so, the Cambrian real estate market is fairly hot, a good strong seller’s market as long as homes are priced well, staged well, and marketed well.  That doesn’t mean that every home is selling, but those which are nicely staged and marketed and correctly priced are selling at a good pace – and many of them get multiple offers, as the overbids attest.

Just now I checked what has closed in the Cambrian area in the last 30 days. There were 36 houses that closed. Of them 9 sold over list price, a few sold right at list price but most sold under list (and a very few sold grossly lower).

Now let’s work with Altos Research’s graphs and get a feel for the Cambrian realty market in “real time”.  These use list prices, whereas my REReport uses sold data.

First, the statistics by quartile for houses in San Jose 95118:

Next, the stats and trends by price quartile for houses in San Jose 95124:

Median list price of homes for sale in 95124 and 95118:

Very interesting that the 95124 pricing appears to be swinging upward while the 95118 pricing continues to go down.  I believe that this is mainly because the schools in 95124 have been trending upward strongly with the API scores.  Prices are also at a higher level, and those are less impacted by short sales and REOs countywide.  So it may be the result of multiple factors.  (95124 is about 2/3 of the Cambrian real estate market.)

Inventory in Cambrian area of San Jose 95124, 95118:

Surprising, isn’t it, to see how differently these two San Jose zip codes are behaving from each other?

Average days on Market in San Jose’s Cambrian area

And again, really different trends on these neighboring zips, both in Cambrian!

Another anecdotal story to share: Recently I closed the sale on my listing at 5114 Nerissa Way in Cambrian with Union Schools and Alta Vista in particular. We were listed at $579,000 and received 4 offers and sold at $585,000. Interestingly, we received 2 nearly identical “best” offers, both at $585,000. One was completely As Is and the other was almost As Is (they wanted a fumigation and pest clearance provided).  That is usually a pretty good affirmation of market value, and the property did appraise at the sales price.  The other two offers we got were below list price.  One was all cash and it was extremely low.  Buyers who are purchasing without financing sometimes misunderstand the type of discount that their all-cash status will get for them, so sometimes the worst offers are all cash and that was the case this time.

Want more info on your neighborhood, your house, or your target home to buy? Please call me!

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 61. See more 95124 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $685,000 : 1671 Zinnia Ln, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,410 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,240 sq ft
   
2. $549,900 : 2423 Loment Pl, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,539 sq ft

   Lot size: 4,232 sq ft
   
3. $639,000 : 1695 Merrill Dr, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,396 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,200 sq ft
   
4. $748,000 : 1830 Curtner Av, San Jose
   
   5 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,191 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,000 sq ft
   
5. $574,980 : 5003 Phileo Ct, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,644 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,854 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 29. See more 95118 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $829,000 : 5530 Le Franc Dr,
   
   4 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 2,020 sq ft

   Lot size: 3,356 sq ft
   
2. $575,000 : 3213 Gardendale Dr, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,800 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,313 sq ft
   
3. $489,900 : 1349 Lyonsville Ln, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,692 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,583 sq ft
   
4. $499,000 : 3119 Santa Margarita Av, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 1,071 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,840 sq ft
   
5. $430,000 : 1560 Hillsdale Av, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,654 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,890 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse lists of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale:
Houses for sale in the 95118 part of Cambrian
Cambrian Park Houses for Sale in 95124

Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley”
408 204-7673 (Cell)
emailto: Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com & www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com

How common are “all cash” transactions for Silicon Valley real estate right now?  Throughout Santa Clara County, they were 20% of all sales among houses, duet homes, condominiums and townhouses (class 1 and class 2, does not include mobile homes, 2-4plex or apartment buildings or raw land).

Some areas and some types of sales are more frequently all cash than others.  Here are a few quick stats for the last month (last 30 days from today – numbers from MLSListings, crunched by me – disclaimer on good intentions but no guarantee):

• Santa Clara County: 20% all cash
• San Jose (entire city): 24% all cash
• San Jose short sales: 33% all cash
• San Jose bank owned or REO sales: 37% all cash
• Short sales & REOs were 48% of all sales in San Jose in the last month
• Of SJ homes listed at $300,000 or less: 48% all cash
• Los Gatos & Monte Sereno: zero sales all cash
• Saratoga: 29% all cash
• Almaden Valley area of San Jose: 14% all cash

Some of these sales will have no financing and the new owners will occupy the home.  Particularly in lower priced homes, though, these are investor buyers who will be renting out the property.  This is often the case with the lower price distressed properties in particular.  In higher priced homes, some new owners will put financing on the property after close of escrow.

With the crazy new demands that keep coming at us from banks and new requirements being imposed on appraisers, now more than ever, cash is king.  That doesn’t mean that the cash buyer will get a deep discount, but there will be a slight one in most cases and certainly preferential treatment that will create a great advantage in multiple offer situations.

Learn more about buying and selling Silicon Valley real estate with cash offers:

Cash offers: what do you need to know if buying “all cash”?

Q & A: Making an Offer

What’s My Silicon Valley Home Worth? Estimating the Probable Buyer’s Value  (financing impacts market value)

The Los Gatos real estate market for houses & duet homes looks pretty good at first glance, but if you scratch the surface and analyze some of the sub-markets, we see that it varies widely as to how “the” market is faring. (It’s not one market, but many smaller markets near each other.)

Yesterday I spent some time pulling apart the housing market in Los Gatos (for houses and duet homes, not condos) by school district and price point to get the months of inventory.  Here’s a brief summary:

The market gets substantially colder as you go up in price – read more and get more details on Live in Los Gatos!

More reading…

How’s the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Doing Now?
Please also view the current statistics care of Altos Research on my popehandy.com site on the Los Gatos real estate market (uses list prices rather than solds):
How’s the Real Estate Market in Los Gatos?

Do pools enhance property value in Silicon Valley back yards?  Do they make homes easier or more difficult to sell in Santa Clara County? What’s the impact on resale value?  The common wisdom is that it depends on the amount of yard or lot size, the price point and the location of the residence. When a pool takes up the majority (or virtually all) of the back yard, most often it makes the property undesirable to buyers – at least to most home buyers – and that, in turn, causes the sales price to slip a bit. It used to be that pools were almost a given on more expensive residential real estate, particularly if there is a lot of land.  Today I ran the numbers, though, and it appears that things have changed.  Below please find the “months of inventory” for homes with and without pools and note that it is very consistent, in the fields I checked, that it’s now harder to sell a home with a pool than without

.

Pools appear to make it harder to sell a home in Santa Clara County right now.

Truthfully, this came as a bit of a surprise to me since many of the luxury properties in Almaden, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Monte Sereno and nearby areas do include pools, especially if they’re on a half acre lot or more.  In the past, I remember high-end buyers not wanting to purchase a larger, estate home if there wasn’t already a pool in place since it’s such a mess (and noisy, and expensive) to go through the construction of one. Lately, though, my high-end buyers (properties upwards of a million dollars) are fairly adamant that they do not want a swimming pool. Many of them don’t want the upkeep costs or chores and have told me that they would not use it enough to make it worthwhile.

What about luxury home buyers and pools in Silicon Valley?

I wanted to see if it changed when the data was viewed in light of pricing and not just acreage or lot size, so to finish up this study, I looked at regular sales of houses listed at over $2,000,000 in Santa Clara County (the San Jose area) – these are considered luxury homes here.  For houses without pools, the months of inventory was 5.4 (not terrible, still less than the 6 months which NAR calls a balanced market) but for homes with pools, it was up to 6.8 months of inventory. That’s a significant difference and is in line with what we saw when the question was put with the amount of land involved.  Generally speaking, buyers would prefer to not have a pool, even in the higher priced subsets of the market.  (My advice: run the numbers for your own home’s micro market and see. It’s possible that this may not apply in your case.)

This still didn’t sit quite right with me since I’ve known the most expensive homes to all have pools, so I spent some time looking at homes in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga. I was interested to know if homes with pools were still harder to sell and had a lower resale value, as appears to be the case in more normally price houses.

First I looked again at larger lots – half an acre to about an acre and a half – in all three areas combined.  It was inconclusive but basically there were 102 of them for sale now and 12 which have closed in the last month (so 8.5 months of inventory).  Of those on the market, 56 had pools and 46 didn’t. This was too broad given the variety of zip codes and school districts, so I narrowed it to just Saratoga with only Saratoga schools.  For those in this area, just 3 have sold and closed in the last month with no pool (averaging about $1,850,000) but 9 have closed with a swimming pool (averageing about $2,735,000).  The average square footage of a house without a pool was 3482, but the average house size of places with a pool was 4309. It does appear that homes with pools do sell for more, but also that in general, these are larger homes.  Since 3/4 of those sold in this segment of the Saratoga market do have pools, it would be hard to say that buyers are rejecting homes with pools.  Of course, a 4300 SF house in Saratoga with Saratoga Schools is much different than a house in Willow Glen with San Jose schools – just underlines the fact that the real estate market is comprised of many micro markets.  What is true for the county as a whole may not be the case for luxury properties in Los Altos, Saratoga, or Almaden Valley.

Why do pools hurt the odds of selling for most houses in the San Jose area?

Bigger studies would need to be done to thoroughly address the question of why swimming pools appear to hurt saleability for most residential real estate (the very high end excluded).  But I will venture a couple of guesses.  First, there are weather issues.  Last summer was cool and this winter doesn’t seem to want to end. Pools are probably a lot more appealing when there’s significant doses of hot weather.  Second, we are still recovering from a very tough recession, so the new frugality which is currently fashionable and which has become a way of life for so many of us may be impacting the perceived value of in ground pools, too.  This may change as we move more into the recovery and when our unemployment isn’t just over 10%.

Selling a home with a swimming pool

Home owners, it’s important to realize that although you may have enjoyed and treasured your pool, for buyers it may be viewed as a liability – an expense to have it removed or to maintained. To get the best deal for your home, you’ll want to try to mitigate the buyer’s concerns since worried buyers will pay less and confident buyers will pay more for your property. Solar panels make it less expensive to maintain, and therefore more acceptable to consumers worried about power bills.  Families with small children may be concerned about safety issues, so having a great child-proof fencing system may provide them peace of mind.  You could, as a negotiation strategy or selling bonus, throw in one year of pool service from your favorite provider too, since they may feel ill-equipped to take on the maintenance of a pool as soon as they move in.  A home warranty with pool coverage will also provide peace of mind and a sense of a safety net should things go wrong.

Selling a house with a pool? Make sure it's clean!

Pools, like every other element of the house and yard, need to be in pristine, sparkling condition if you want to maximize the sales price of your property.   When home buyers, especially first time home buyers, see missing tiles, obvious rust stains, rampant algae, leaking pool equipment or other problems, they see both work to be done and dollar signs.  This is even more true if there are no pre-sale inspections.  Don’t provide reasons for your home’s buyer to be worried – buying a home at all is worrisome enough!

Should you remove the pool before putting your house on the market?

Filled pool: what not to do

Some home sellers may opt to get rid of the pool before selling. That can be a good idea, especially if the back yard is really small, but it needs to be done correctly. Recently I was house-hunting with some clients in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose and we saw a backyard where the pool was left completely in place, but filled with dirt and planted with grass. I assure you, that was a terrible idea because now buyers see it as twice as much trouble (and cost) to rectify. Home buyers, if you are neutral on buying with or without a pool, you may find it far easier to purchase property that has a pool as it seems that there will be less competition for it. If you want a pool, you are in luck right now!  Market conditions change and three or four years from now, when we are in a more recovered economic status, pools may again be the hot ticket.  This is a great opportunity to buy a house with a pool while there’s less competition! Want to talk about buying or selling a home with a pool?  Call or email me today!

How is the real estate market in the Willow Glen area of San Jose?  There are multiple ways of viewing it – via price point, school district, proximity to “downtown Willow Glen”, by numbers or percentages of distressed sales (sale type), and many more criteria.  Today we’ll look at the broad market numbers for the MLS “area 10″ (all of Willow Glen) and at times just the zip code for San Jose 95125, which covers the majority of the Willow Glen area.  This post will only cover houses or “single family homes”, not condominiums or townhomes.

I ran the months of inventory for homes in Willow Glen (our MLS area 10) by sale type.  Here’s what I found – most of the market appears to have about 4.95 months of inventory, with short sales being considerably longer.  (This may have had different results had I isolated certain school areas or price points – this is a “sweeping view” of the area only.) The National Association of Realtors says that less than 6 months is a sellers market, but for our area, this is fairly “cool” and most sellers would not find the market to be all that much in their favor. (Six months is supposed to be a balanced market.)

It is unusual for there to be so little variation in the MOI, so I double checked but this appears correct. Often bank owned homes or REOs fly off the market.  Odd that it’s not happening here, too.

Next, a selection of statistics and trends in the numbers from my REReport for Willow Glen (click on link for more info) – prices here reflect sold prices (median and average), not list prices:

Prices appear down from the prior month but up from a year ago.  That’s good news for Willow Glen home owners, who hope that the worst is now behind us.  Days on market are better than the previous month (but worse than a year ago) and inventory is up from last month but almost the same – just a little less – than a year ago.  It’s a mixed bag.

The next batch of info comes via my MLS, which I pulled together using a new tool, the Realtors Property Resource.  What I like about this set is that it includes distressed properties (banked owned homes or REOs as well as short sales and pre-foreclosures).

If the lack of new notices of default continues, we’ll see a lot of improvement in the Willow Glen market.

Next let’s look at the data provided by Altos Research (which uses list prices rather than sales prices). This is helpful as it views the listing activity by price quartile. That is, you can see that “the market” for the top tier or luxury homes in Willow Glen is behaving a bit differently from entry level houses in the same general area.

First, the median list price for San Jose 95125 (which covers about 90% or more of Willow Glen), going back as far as 2005:

It looks rather dismal, taken historically, until you pause to note the recent and very welcome uptick.

Next, the same data but broken down by price quartile - I think it is very interesting that the top tier of pricing there is at almost the same point as it was at the beginning of this time period. That certainly isn’t true for the other groups!

Right now the three lower price ranges seem to be moving up while the luxury home prices are moving the opposite direction.

Same data but just the last one year – not so dramatic:

So how’s the market? If your house or the one you want to purchase is a short sale in the highest pricing strata, the market is unduly soft. If your home is a regular sale in a lower price point, it may be completely different.

When I work with sellers and buyers on “their” market, I run the numbers every which way, but tailored to the home they own or wish to own – the schools, the price point, the sale type, how many distressed homes are nearby etc. The market is not one monolithic creature, but instead is a patchwork of many micro markets.

For information on your micro-market, please contact me! Should we decide to work together in buying or selling your home, I will provide you current and pinpointed market information.

For retirees or senior home owners in Almaden who’ve been in their houses a very long time, the prospect of selling that beloved San Jose home can be quite daunting.  The longer you’ve been there, the more memories you’ve created and most of the time the harder it is to decide to sell and then do all the work needed to maximize that decision.

In today’s post we’ll go over the decision to sell the home (or not), the timing elements for selling and getting help in doing so.

Deciding it’s time to sell your Almaden Valley home

Perhaps the biggest hurdle is not the physical work involved with preparing a home for the real estate market or moving, but instead is the difficult decision of whether or not to move (and if so, when to do it).

As people age, there are a lot of losses.  There may be retirement that wasn’t chosen, but forced.  Loved ones pass away.  Vision diminishes.  It may become necessary to limit driving, or worse, give it up altogether. It is not hard for those over 65, 70  or 80 years of age to feel like it’s one unhappy challenge after the next. There’s a lot of change but it’s not all positive.

The prospect of also changing one’s residence can seem like one of the biggest, toughest and most unwelcome of all.    

Some home owners will elect to stay put.  I’ve been told more than once, “the only way I’m leaving this place is if they carry me out in a box!“  For them, perhaps home health care or live in help will enable them to remain in their house for the rest of their lives. Perhaps they can have family members move in with them.  They may consider a reverse mortgage if their financial situation requires more income to pay for that help.

For others, though, the prospect of downsizing to something more manageable (such as a condo or apartment or even an independent senior residence) looks like an attractive option.  When my grandmother was about 90, she suggested to my grandfather that he had been retired for many years, but she was still cooking and cleaning, and that either they needed more help or they needed to move out of their large house.  It was not an easy choice, but they eventually did move from their beloved Pasatiempo home to an independent senior place in Santa Cruz, Dominican Oaks. For her, it was like a wonderful new chapter of her life in the sense that she had a whole lot of new friends whereas at home she had become more isolated since by then she wasn’t driving any more.

Whether to sell the house and move or stay put is a decision that should not be made lightly and should be made with all kinds of supporting information.  I strongly suggest talking it over with your tax professional (a CPA or enrolled agent who understands your tax liability for both choices) and if you have one, your financial adviser too.  It is probably wise to also learn what your closest family members think would be in your best interest.  In some cases, they may ask if you’d consider moving closer to them so that they can help you as your needs change.  (This is actually very common.)

Often, putting the pieces together (financial, personal, practical) will make it fairly clear what’s best.  If selling your Almaden Valley home looks like the right decision for you, the next big question is timing.

When to sell your Almaden Valley home:  timing

There are multiple elements to the timing facet for senior home sellers.

• how long does it take to get ready to sell my home?
• is there a best time of year to put my house up for sale?
• how long will it be before a buyer makes an offer on my house?
• how fast will I have to move once my property is under contract?

It is hard to pinpoint how long the first job will take as it varies tremendously from one household to the next and depends on whether things have been occasionally purged or if the house has had a one-way flow of traffic: in.

It’s extremely helpful if you can get family members to assist you with the initial part of preparing your home to sell, which is downsizing and de-cluttering.  Most of us have things we’ve held onto for decades, sometimes unknowingly, and it may be time to give some of those items away, toss or sell them.  This enormous job can take forever to do without help.  Each box may reopen forgotten memories and stop you in your tracks.

There are people you can hire to help you move through this stage too; they are called professional organizers in most areas and can be immensely helpful!

So how long does this take? Depending on how much help you have and how much stuff you have, it could take anywhere from a couple of weeks or a month to well more than a year.  If you are thinking that sometime in the next 5 years you will want to downsize, you can do yourself an immense favor and begin to thin out your possessions starting today.

The best time of year to sell is often said to be spring (between February and April or May) but each year it varies a little so it’s not an exact science.  It is very possible to sell your home at ANY time of year if your house is priced right, in good shape, staged well and marketed well.  For retirees, seniors or elderly home owners, I would say that the first priority probably ought to be when the timing is best for them to move above all else.

Can we predict how long it will take to sell a home in Almaden? Somewhat, yes.  We know that if it’s well priced, staged, marketed, and easily accessible, it should sell fairly quickly. The trick is in being fully prepared and fully competitive at every level.  If your property backs to high voltage lines or a busy road, you cannot price it the same as if it had a greenbelt view.  The biggest sellers’ mistake that I see is overpricing because the seller believes that his or her property is worth more than the market will really bear.  That is the #1 reason why most homes either don’t sell at all or sell only after a very long time.

The Almaden Real Estate Market & Pricing

To understand the market conditions in the 95120 (Almaden) area, it’s important to first see the ratio of listings to homes that actually sell and close escrow.  Without studying the statistics, you might think that every home eventually sells – or even most.  But actually that’s not the case!  The odds are, in fact, against selling.  It’s imperative to understand things like the absorption rate or months of inventory and the ratio of list price to sales price.  If you are overpriced, the odds are greater that you won’t be successful in selling.

I should add here that while there’s a lot of info about recent home sales online, it’s not all either accurate or helpful. A “sale” might show up on the web when in fact it’s a price for a refinance, which is smaller.  A sales price might list a number, but the comments which real estate agents can see may indicate the reason or that the “net” price was actually higher.   I might be able to see the comps and know that one house sold low because it was a short sale, and another high because the sellers carried the loan.  An agent familiar with Almaden knows that a “radius search” is somewhat helpful, but sometimes the comparable sales on the online sites may pull from a different school district or lesser location and not adjust at all for that.  So it’s good to get professional help with the price analysis on your house.

When everything is “just right”, homes usually sell within a month.

Check the current real estate market report on my RE Report for Almaden (statistics, trends and data).

How long is escrow? How soon will I have to move once the house sells?

Most Silicon Valley homes which sell (where a buyer writes an offer and you accept it) close escrow about a month later. Sometimes, if the buyer is using FHA backed financing (somewhat unlikely in Almaden), it may be 45 days.  Sometimes sellers want a longer escrow so that they have more time to move, but there are risks with longer escrows so most Realtors will advise against it.

If the market is a hot seller’s market when you have the for sale sign put in your front lawn, you may be able to get a short rent back after close of escrow.  This can enable you to move knowing that the money is in the bank and to make sure that there’s no rush in getting the house and yard cleaned up for your move-out.  If it’s a normal market when you sell, though, you’ll probably have to move out of the house at least a few days prior to closing the sale (more if your home needs fumigation – if so, plan for nearly a week).

Getting help to make the most from your Almaden home sale

In addition to the weeding out of possessions, it’s also going to be necessary to get the home into show-ready state if you want to maximize the amount of money you get from your home sale.  In some cases, it may really be easiest for you to consider moving out of the house prior to selling it.  Why would you do that?

Homes sell for more if buyers think that it’s “turnkey” or ready just as it is.  Sellers tend to think “but they may not like my colors” or “buyers will want to personalize the home, so that’s a waste”.  But in actuality, most buyers cannot imagine how the home might look, they only know how it looks now.  To get you the most from your home’s sale, then, we need to make it look the way it will help the buyer to best envision himself or herself in the house.

Most of the time that means, at the very least, new carpet and paint if you’ve been in the property more than 10 years. Many times there will be more extensive things which need to be done, but this has to be determined on a case-by-case basis.

In my own real estate practice, my goal is that for every dollar spent, my clients will make 2-3 back at least.  It works and is not “a waste”!

To do the pre-sale preparation, it will be important to get help: gardeners, stagers, people to scrub the house to a fare-thee-well and more.  When you hire your Realtor, he or she can usually suggest people to help with all of this.  In the majority of cases, it goes much better all around if you hire people to assist with all of this rather than go it alone.

There are many decisions and milestones along the way for older Almaden Valley residents who choose to move and sell their home.  It’s an easier journey if you have good help from the beginning.  I am very familiar with Almaden, have sold homes here since the early 90s and have tremendous experience working with senior home sellers and their families.  (To make sure I wasn’t missing anything which my experience had provided, years ago I obtained the SRES or Seniors Real Estate Specialist designation.)  If you or a family member is interested in talking more with me about a possible home sale in Almaden, San Jose, Los Gatos or anywhere nearby in Santa Clara County, please call or email me.  I’d be very happy to hear from you.

For more reading, please also see:

When A Parent Has To Sell The House

What Do Silicon Valley Seniors Need to Know About Moving Their Property Tax Basis When Selling a Home?

What are the options for senior housing in Silicon Valley?

Browse homes for sale in San Jose’s Almaden Valley district (95120)

How is the Campbell condo and townhouse market?  The answer may well depend on both what part of that market we’re discussing and which data we’re focusing on.

The Campbell Condo Real Estate Market Summaries for Summer 2010

The summaries here are from my Real Estate Report.  Get the most current, detailed report at www.popehandy.ReReport.com.

Campbell condominium & townhouse sales in September 2010

The condo market in Campbell, California has been strengthening.  September 2010 was a good month!

August 2010 Condo Sales in Campbell CA

August was slow across Silicon Valley – real estate sales lagged (more than the “seasonal average”)

July 2010 condo market for Campbell, CA

June saw the market slow, and like much of the Santa Clara Valley, prices were up but sales were down.  When this happens it sometimes means that home values aren’t rising, just that more expensive homes are beginning to sell, but in Campbell we are now seeing modest price appreciation.

More detailed info from late June, 2010:

The absorption rate, or months of inventory, indicates that it’s a seller’s market:

The hottest segment is the bank owned or REO part of the Campbell condominium or townhouse realty market, and the slowest segment is the short sale section (which is about 20% of the available inventory). That’s very typical of other nearby areas: the hardest homes to sell are the short sales.  As a side note: there are 39 condos available and 29 which are sale pending. That is a high ratio, which also points to a seller’s market.

How does this compare to a year ago?  It’s completely different!

A year ago, the months of inventory was a whopping 72% higher at 8.8 for May 2009 vs 2.5 for May 2010. Solds are up 42% from 12 months ago.  Pending sales are up 200% from a year ago also.  So from every vantage, it’s much, much better than a year ago.

What about other data?  I have a subscription to Altos Research, which also charts the market but does it a little differently.  Often the numbers I crunch line up but sometimes theirs is an opposing view.  Here’s their current summary, which puts this market as a buyer’s market, not a seller’s market:

I like the fact that they track flipped homes, relisted homes and the percent of properties with price decreases.  This is especially important when you consider how many homes may get a price change and then a new MLS number, which may confuse some of the statistics.

Altos also breaks down more info by price quartile (they use list prices, not sales prices, for this info).   What I like about the following chart is that it gives you an idea of what your money will buy. (Seeing 4.5 bathrooms is throwing me, though – I don’t recall ever seeing a condo or townhome with that many bathrooms anywhere!)  Also of interest: the majority of condos or townhouses in Campbell seem to be around 1300 SF with 2 bedrooms and are offered somewhere in the 400′s.  That’s useful information for buyers and sellers alike.

So what can we say about the conflicting assessments of the Campbell real estate market for condos and townhomes?

I think Altos has some valid concerns about the long days on the market – 88 DOM does not sound like a “seller’s market”. I looked at the pendings to see if I could blame short sales – but even among pendings that are “regular sales”, the DOM is 64 (it’s actually less among short sales, oddly). That’s pretty long. We tend to think of a seller’s market as being applicable when homes sell in 3-4 weeks. Two months is a bit much to call it a seller’s market. Of the seven “normal type sales” which are pending, only two of them sold in under three weeks.

All in all, I think it shakes down to a fairly balanced market right now.  It’s not a bad time to sell, and it’s not a bad time to buy a Campbell condo. Search Campbell condo listings now!

Campbell CA Condos for Sale, Campbell Townhouses for Sale, Campbell Condominiums for Sale

Browse a list of homes in Campbell currently listed on our MLS as active & available. No need to register – see all condominiums & townhomes in Campbell (which are on the MLS).

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 20. See more city of Campbell real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $246,000 : 597 Valley Forge Wy #4, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 840 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,750 sq ft
   
2. $397,900 : 721 W Hacienda Av, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,572 sq ft

   Lot size: 4,400 sq ft
   
3. $325,000 : 67 Dot Av, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,060 sq ft

   Lot size: 900 sq ft
   
4. $379,000 : 860 Apricot Av #E, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,065 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,306 sq ft
   
5. $399,900 : 101 W Rincon Av, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,141 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,168 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Next week I’ll be putting a Willow Glen house on the market so have been paying attention to the trends & statistics for this charming part of San Jose.  Here’s a look at the absorption rate for Willow Glen houses and duet homes (numbers run yesterday) by price band.

Willow Glen Months of Inventory June 17 2010

My Real Estate Report provides numbers (which I don’t have to crunch!) on a monthly basis for all of Santa Clara County, including the Willow Glen (area 10, mostly 95125) part of San Jose.  It’s a good, broad view of the Willow Glen market overall.  Here’s the summary for the  May 2010 Real Estate Report for Willow Glen – June’s info will be out sometime in early July. Click on the link to get all the data rather than just this quick view.

The Willow Glen real estate market trends are up month over month for the median & average sales prices, but the average sales price is still down year over year.  Pendings are down compared to April (possibly a reaction to the federal home buyer tax credit?) and year over year.  The list price to sales price ratio is up, though, and the days on market are shorter.

Looking at both sets of numbers, mine and the REReport’s, it is clear that the homes priced up to about $900,000 are the ones leading the recovery, and that the most expensive homes are not selling well at all.  When we began to see improvement in the market, it was first entry level houses that were selling well.  Eventually it spread to the move-up market, both here and throughout Silicon Valley.  Will it continue?  The very high end homes in Santa Clara County are selling much better than they were a year ago, but as you can see, there’s still loads of room for improvement for the luxury homes market.

In Almaden Valley, like in other parts of San Jose and Silicon Valley, some parts of “the market” are hotter than  others.  The real estate sweet spot appears to be homes priced in either the entry level or move-up markets – but things cool considerably as the homes become more elegant, grand and luxurious.  (This appears to be true across all of Santa Clara County: the most affordable homes are still the hottest segment of the realty market.)

Months of Inventory in Almaden Valley

Here’s how the current inventory and sales breaks down, together with the months of inventory, for the Almaden Valley part of San Jose (95120 zip code). Info from MLS Listings deemed accurate but not guaranteed. The “closed” column represents homes closed (houses & duet homes) in the last month.

As you can see, up to about $1,200,000 it’s a very strong seller’s market with less than 2 months of inventory. But beyond that price point, it’s suddenly a completely different market and is instead a very strong buyer’s market.

What about distressed property sales in Almaden?

There are almost no bank owned properties currently for sale or recently closed in Almaden – just 1 in the entry level price band which is currently listed for sale.

There are not many short sales in Almaden: right now just 5 for sale: 3 in the lowest of these five price groups, 1 in the 2nd lowest and one in the highest. Closings among short sales are also few in number: 2 in the lowest price point and one in the second lowest.  The absorption rate or months of inventory among short sales was 1.5 in the lowest price point and 1 month in the second lowest. No closings among higher priced homes that were also short sales in the last month.

How About Home Prices in Almaden?

Altos Research (to which I have a subscription) has a wonderful system of charts which can display the market data in a wide variety of ways, but please be aware that they track list prices, not sold prices.

Here’s a look at the Median List Price of all Almaden Valley houses & duet homes over the last three years:

Notice all those dips? Now look at the dates – they all occur in January or in winter. It’s very consistent. So is the upswing in prices which follows. So to a degree, the up & down is somewhat predicatble or “seasonal”. We tend to see the lowest prices in winter – that’s true for most of Silicon Valley. It’s just that normally – if you were to track 30 years or so – you’d see that most of the time the overall movement in price is up, rather than down. It looks like the downward trend may be getting reversed, but it will take more time and data to confirm that.

Next, the same data but broken down into four equal price points or quartiles.

Taken together, the dips seem a little milder than might be accurate. Here’s just the top tier, median list price in Almaden:

Upper-middle tier:

Lower-middle tier:

And finally, the bottom tier:

Taken by themselves, the median list prices seem to be pretty negative news, though there’s now an “uptick” in progress.

Almaden Valley Days on Market

If we look at the days on market (which is a helpful number, but not as strong as the absorption rate), we see the drama that is our market change in much of the Almaden area. This next chart displays all price quartiles combined.

This is much more than a little reversal or a seasonally predicted trend. Let’s see how it plays out if we break down the quartiles separately:

It looks a bit chaotic, but please note that all four price groups are displaying the same change in the last few months – a very sudden, steep drop in the days on market or DOM. You may also be able to make out that the DOM tends to peak each year in the winter season. This part is normal and seasonally expected. What’s not normal is the “falling off the cliff” kind of change which is being experienced in all price points.

Inventory of Almaden Valley Homes for Sale

Almaden inventory of homes for sale, too, is a little reminiscent of the Giant Dipper over at the Boardwalk in Santa Cruz – lots of steep ups and downs over the last 3 years:

Each of the four quartiles has identical inventory patterns, so it is not helpful to break this one down by group.

Market Action Index in Almaden

Altos has its own proprietary “Market Action Index” by which they note if the market is more in the buyer’s or seller’s favor. For the Altos MAI, 30 is the cutoff – below that is a buyer’s market, and above that is a seller’s market. Here’s the MAI for all price points combined or “Almaden as a whole”

As a group (above), it’s very much a buyer’s market. But how about by price quartile?

Still a buyer’s market, but better for the less expensive homes, just as we saw when viewing the absorption rate or months of inventory at the beginning of this post. It might be clearer if we looked at a smaller window of time. Let’s see just the last 6 months:

Interesting that the upper middle (2nd from top) had been the “best” and has now fallen to second worst position. The very worst is reserved for the most expensive homes, which we also saw with the absorption rates.

Of all four price points, the lowest (or most affordable) is the one that seems to be improving the most. So we’ll see if this continues and it pushes through to hit the number where Altos would (also) call it a seller’s market. Based on the absorption rates shared at the beginning of this post, I would say that it already is a seller’s market in the bottom price points of the Almaden Valley real estate market. Conversely, the luxury home market in Almaden is taking a beating right now.

Get Historical Data on the Almaden Valley Realty Market

Want more information, with historical data on the Almaden Valley real estate market trends and statistics? Or data on the condominium & townhouse market in Almaden?  Please visit my Real Estate Report page for Almaden Valley homes, which is automatically updated monthly and contains monthly, quarterly and annual info dating back to 2001.

Find Almaden Valley Homes for Sale Now

What’s on the market or listed for sale in Almaden Valley right now?  Do a “real time” search that reqires no registration!

Search Almaden Valley Homes for Sale

Additionally, you may also search for homes by map.  This may appeal to you more if you want to be near a particular school, park, the community center, or any other landmark in 95120.

Search Almaden real estate for sale by map

If you search by map, the link above will pull up most or all of San Jose.  Almaden will be in the lower right corner of the map.

Just browsing? You can also view a list of homes for sale by price range
Almaden Valley Homes under $1,000,000
Almaden Valley Homes between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000
Almaden Valley Homes $2,000,000 and up

The condominium & townhouse market is improving dramatically now.  It is evident both in looking at the stats countywide and in my recent experiences holding open my townhouse listings in Saratoga and Sunnyvale as well as recently participating in the sale of a townhome in Almaden Valley (representing a buyer) – all different areas and price points but all very active.

Here are the numbers for May sales of condos and townhomes for all of Santa Clara  County:

As you can see, the days on market are shrinking and prices (both median and average) are rising.  A few numbers cut back slightly in May: the sale to list price ratio retreated a little to 99.9% and the pending properties went down a little too.  But the number of sales were up.

The “months of inventory” or absorption rate is a great way to know how much of a buyer’s or seller’s market it is in any given place. Six months is considered balanced, less is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market.  Here are the months of inventory for selected communities in the “west valley” area of Silicon Valley – they are all “seller’s markets”, but some are strong and some are approaching balanced:

Of course, this is still painting with a broad brush.  The absorption rate for any of these areas may not be accurate for the various price points or school districts that might be found there.  For instance, a large luxury townhouse in Los Gatos which is downtown might be a really different type of market than a small, entry level one bordering Campbell or Cambrian Park.

What everyone’s wondering is if this seller’s market for condominiums and townhouses will continue despite the end of the federal home buyer credit.  To utilize that credit, homes had to be in contract by April 30th.  Most of those should be closed now, or nearing that date at best.  So we’ll really know more as we move into summer. My sense, though, is that what’s driving this market is much more the affordable prices of homes and of loans. The credits are a bonus, but many in Silicon Valley make too much money to be able to use them.

For information on your particular part of the Silicon Valley condo or townhome market, please give me a call or email me!

Cambrian Park is a district of San Jose which borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Almaden Valley and Willow Glen (the last two are also part of the city of San Jose).  It’s got a population of about 77,000 between the two main zip codes, 95214 (about 45,000) and 95118 (about 32,000 residents).  (There’s also a little sliver of 95008, but most of that area is covered by Campbell.) The 95124 area tends to be a little more expensive and a ittle less densely populated (7075 people per square mile in 95124 vs 7595 per sq. mile in 95118).

How’s the Cambrian real estate market?  Right now, it is a strong seller’s market.  This doesn’t mean that all homes are selling or that prices have returned to their peak, but in general, homes are selling briskly, much faster than a few months ago. As you can see from the Altos chart below, the average “days on market” has been falling over the last 90 days.  It is interesting to note that in the last 90 days, the more expensive area of Cambrian (95124) is selling a bit better than the more affordable.  This is a switch from the not so distant past, as you will see in the chart following this first one. (Charts below from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription.)

Average Days on Market for Cambrian Park homes for sale(San Jose zip codes 95124 and 95118)

We can look back further and see that the market does seem to have changed in recent months from the trends of the last few years. The longer time frame below also visually accentuates the change in the DOM. (Please note that from about 2007 to 2008 the 95118 area was selling faster – then the two areas were in a dead heat – and now 95124 is selling quicker.)

Average Days on Market for Cambrian Park, San Jose houses over last 3 years

Cambrian home buyers will tell you that homes are selling a lot faster than they used to, but also that prices are rising, especially among entry level priced homes. It is getting harder and harder, especially for first time home buyers, to get their foot in the door in Cambrian.

Cambrian Park, San Jose (95124, 95118) average list prices last 90 days

For those actively involved in the Cambrian Park real estate market, it’s no surprise that the sellers are now in the stronger position – especially if their homes are in good shape and well priced.

Perhaps the very best tool for understanding the realty market, though, is not a chart showing pricing or inventory or sales, but rather is the  absorption rate. This number factors the available homes or inventory to those which have closed in a recent period of time (it can be by days, weeks or months).

Next we’ll focus on the Cambrian absorption rate, particularly the “months of inventory“.  According to the National Association of Realtors, 6 months of inventory is a balanced market, less is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market. Today I ran the numbers from MLSListings.com using the sales recorded in the last 30 days to bring you current info on the Cambrian market and those are the figures we’ll use next. (“Sold” refers to homes which have closed escrow.)

For our MLS area 14, which corresponds to Cambrian Park, right now there are a mere 2 months of inventory for houses & duet homes.  By itself, this means that it’s a strong seller’s market in Cambrian.  That doesn’t tell the whole story, though.  If we break it down to “type of sale” (regular, short sale, bank owned) we get even better information. Here’s how these categories line up for the absorption rates or months of inventory:

As you can see, it’s twice as hard to get a “short sale listing” sold vs a regular sale type of property in Cambrian – regular sales are at 1.9 months of inventory while short sales are 3.8 months.  But the hottest segment of the market is bank owned homes, which are flying off the market (thanks to their bargain basement prices) at 1.1 months of inventory.

Want even more info?  Next, let’s look now at more of the info on listings and sales in Cambrian right now.  Again, I ran these numbers earlier today from MLSListings.com (deemed reliable but not guaranteed).

*The numbers reported usually add up to the “all” figure, but not always as there are a couple more categories not displayed here (referring to court confirmation required or not required for probate sales).

Takeaways on the Cambrian Market today:

If you are a home buyer wishing to purchase a house in the Cambrian area of San Jose, be advised, then, that the competition will be extremely steep on bank owned homes for sale, and that they generally go fast!  Conversely, the “softest” part of the market is short sales, so you may well get your best deal there – if you’re patient and can stand the wait. Even the softest part of the market is still a seller’s market, though.  To have a good chance of success you need great financing (at least 20% down or smaller down but with a conventional – not FHA – loan). FHA home buyers are simply getting creamed in this market – they cannot compete unless they are willing to pay above market value for a home (and most are not).

Home sellers, this info should help you with pricing strategies too. If there are a lot of short sales or bank owned homes on the market near your property, it will pull values down and the bank owned sales, especially, will siphon off traffic you’d like to have come through your doors. But if your home is in an area with few of these properties, you should be seeing some recovery in pricing.  If you get your home into top selling condition and price it aggressively, it should sell in well under a month’s time, possibly with multiple offers.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a home in Cambrian or anywhere in the “west valley”, please contact me today.

The Los Gatos real estate market appears to remain a ” buyer’s market”, but it entirely depends on which part of the Los Gatos market you’re discussing.

This post will cover:

• single family homes (99% houses, but a few duet homes)
• 95030 and 95032 zip codes
• Two high school districts:
  • Los Gatos Saratoga High School District (meaning Los Gatos High School)
  • Campbell Union High School District (meaning Westmont or Leigh High Schools)
• varying price points in all of the above

General comments:
Most of 95030 is in the Los Gatos Saratoga High School District, but there is a very, very tiny portion of it which belongs to the Campbell Union High School District.  The percentage is so small as to be statistically insignificant, but I wanted to mention it here for the sake of accuracy and I will include it below.  The numbers below are from our MLS provider, MLSListings.com, with the numbers crunched by me, Mary Pope-Handy.  While I have made every effort to be 100% accurate, I do not guarantee it (don’t sure me if there’s a typo or other error!).

Overview of the basic numbers and months of inventory for the housing market in the town of Los Gatos overall  - homes for sale, pending sales, and closed sales within the last month:

It appears to be a buyer’s market, which is true for much of the town, but not all of it.  There is variation to a phenomenal degree depending on price point, zip code, and school district.  Below we’ll look at all of it and see market conditions for each segment.
Let’s view the data by zip codes and by high school district:

The number of pendings can show where the market’s going – in many parts of the town, the number of pendings exceeds the number of recently closed homes.  In some parts of Silicon Valley, this is due to a high volume of short sales which are pending, but never actually close escrow. Here in LG, there are very few distressed properties on the market, so it does not appear to be the root cause of more pendings than closeds. Instead, the high number of pendings in some areas seem to point to an uptick of market activity.  This is really atypical for August (normally August is a very slow month for sales compared to earlier in the summer).

So, the market is heating up.  Also of note is that It has been VERY hard to sell a home that’s not “in the schools”. This is witnessed by the fact that almost nothing has closed recently.

Now let’s break it down by both price point AND by high school district in Los Gatos (95030 and 95032 zip codes merged):

This is interesting because there are two “sweet spots” in the Los Gatos housing market, both of the “in the schools”. First is the group of homes for sale in the Los Gatos School District which are listed at under $1,000,000.  As prices rise, the months of inventory grows from 3.75 to 6 to 8.25.  But then between $2 million and $3 million, there was a spurt of sales activity with 4 closings recently and only 15 available.   Both of these sweet spots have only 3.75 months of inventory right now.

At the other extreme is the reality of the market not in the Los Gatos School District. About 2/3 of the market is in these areas further from downtown, but homes with Leigh High School and Westmont High School have simply not been selling well right and closing this summer. Oddly, the market is less bad in the higher price ranges – perhaps because those owners are not as worried about schools (and are making use of private schools?  about 1/3 of all students who reside in Los Gatos attend private schools – perhaps the bulk is in 95032?)   BUT look at the pendings and you’ll find that the market is improving in this part of the town significantly.  A month from now we should see a far less dismal report for Los Gatos homes in the Campbell Union High School District.

The Los Gatos real estate market has many nuances in addition to factors such as schools and zip code.  We could dissect the market by any number of factors, from the distressed properties (which do sell for less) to those which views, acreage, historic homes, etc.  When you are thinking of buying or selling a home in Los Gatos, do not simply accept the overview of the town as necessarily relevant to your particular situation.  It is imperative to get the data on your part of the market and to understand what that data actually means.  From the study above, you can see that part of the Los Gatos real estate market is a strong seller’s market (3.25 months of inventory) and others have more than a 2 year supply of inventory (extremely deep buyer’s market).  Not understanding where in the spread your home or desired home sits could literally cost you dearly as you mis-position your home or your offer relative to the market conditions.

If you’re interested in buying or selling a Los Gatos house, townhome or condo, please call me.  If we work together to market your home or purchase a home, I will do my best to assist you in getting the clearest possible picture of the particular segment of the market that relates to you and your situation.

It is a strong seller’s market in the Alum Rock area of San Jose right now: inventory is shrinking and prices are rising after hitting bottom a few months ago. Prices are still way off year over year, but for the last 4 months or so, prices have been rising in this part of Silicon Valley, and it’s quite dramatic.

As of a few days ago in this area of San Jose, there were 203 single family homes for sale and there were 114 that sold/closed in the last month. To get the “months of inventory” or absorption rate we just divide the 203 by the 114 and we get about 1.8 months of inventory, which makes it a very strong sellers market. 

(Because it’s so affordable, first time homebuyers are flocking to Alum Rock in droves. Unfortunately, they are sometimes outbid by all-cash investors and left frustrated as homes get multiple offers and prices skyrocket out of reach.)

The absorption rate can be measured in days, weeks, months (or years) of inventory.  Below is a chart reflecting the days of inventory relative to the last 18 months or so.  As you can see, the absorption rate has been shrinking very, very dramatically (as prices have fallen through the floor).

The market is a sellers market because homes are selling fast (fast, not at a great price for the sellers). They are selling fast because of one main reason: prices are slashed to “bargain basement” prices, and this has happened because the vast majority of sales are foreclosure related: they are short sales and bank owned property sales

A subset of that market are the few “normal sales”. When I take them apart, there are 66 for sale and 18 that have closed in the last 30 days, which is a 3.6 month supply of inventory - still a seller’s market, but not as strong. (Under 6 months is a sellers market, over 6 months is a buyers market.)

What about pricing?

How much more will a home that’s a “normal sale” sell for as opposed to a foreclosed home (REO) or a short sale?

Let’s take the example of a home that’s about 2000 SF and see how it plays out.

Regular sales $319 per SF

Of the homes “for sale” in Alum Rock, of homes about 2000 SF there are:

27 in all
7 bank owned
13 short sales
7 normal sales

Of the homes “under contract” in Alum Rock, of similarly sized homes there were:

66 for sale
15 are bank owned
44 are short sales
7 are normal sales

66 sold in all
53 were bank owned
10 were short sales   (note that a high percentage of short sales SELL but do not CLOSE)
3 were normal sales

Buyers: if you buy a short sale or an REO, there will be “issues” but there will be discounts.  Sellers: if you want to sell a home in Alum Rock, you must be very competitive, whether your home is a normal sale (about 5-10% of the inventory only) or a short sale.  If your home is not a distressed sale, you can sell for more – but not oodles more – than the rock bottom pricing that the bank owned or short sale homes will fetch.

Additionally, there’s a difference from one price point to the next. Below, please see the list price by quartile for the most recent week in the 95127 zip code of San Jose. NB how much better the market is performing here in the high end price range. The higher the price, the more the upswing.  Why? Fewer defaults!

If you want to buy or sell a home in the Alum Rock District of San Jose or anywhere in Silicon Valley, please know that to get the right price, it’s imperative to dig down to the local level and specific home type and not rely on general stats. There is wide variation from one subdivision to the next, let along areas with views, no views, small homes, big homes, etc.

Please contact me for assistance in analysing your market and how to make the most of it. And please visit my Alum Rock statistics and trends section of my RE Report.

Homes in Saratoga, especially in the Saratoga or Cupertino schools areas and in the lowest price ranges, are selling at an improved clip from a year ago. 

Below please find charts indicating the overall residential real estate trends for houses on the market and sold over the last year in Saratoga, California.   Of course the “market heat” will vary from home to home and area to area due to neighborhoood quality, price point, newness of construction and condition of home, school district (especially), and acreage, among other things.  So these general comments may not apply to your unique house, but will be a good indicator of the housing market in Saratoga generally.

First, supply and demand in Saratoga over the last year.  The number of Saratoga homes on the market is up 31% year over year and the number of sold properties is up 72%.  The trend line indicates a rise in both homes on the market and those sold.  June’s inventory was a bit smaller than May’s. Will inventory continue to contract? If so, it will put pressure on home buyers because prices may begin to rise as the inventory gets better absorbed.

Please note that while the market is improving very noticeably, there are still far more homes on the market than are actually selling. Sellers, take heart that it’s improving but do not believe that the selling conditions are so changed that your home doesn’t need to be priced aggressively and staged nicely to get sold. (Even in a hot sellers market, some homes never do sell because of price and condition, primarily.)

Months Supply of Inventory (absorption rate) in Saratoga for single family homes (houses) has been declining and is down 26.2% from a year ago at this same time.

Finally, a look  at homes between one and two million dollars in Saratoga (for sale, pending and sold).  I wanted an overview of what the market is like in this fairly hot segment of the market. 

This chart is helpful as it indicates price reductions and “days on market” as well as the current or sold prices. The clusters reveal that most homes that sell are selling pretty fast.  Very few homes languish on the market more than 6 months before they are sold, removed from the market, or repriced dramatically enough to get a new MLS number and position in the market.

Homeowners: it is a better time to sell now than it’s been in recent history, and the market is moving into your favor (esp in the lowest price ranges). To maximize your home’s value when selling, it needs to be postioned to sell fast while buyers have the most interest in it.   Buyers, the “shiney pennies” are being bought fairly quickly so if you see a good home in a good area with a good price, don’t wait too long to act.  If you can buy a solid home with “good bones” that needs a little work, you’ll have far less competition then if you buy the turnkey home that everyone wants.

If you are interested in selling or buying a home in Saratoga, or anywhere in the west valley communities of Silicon Valley, please contact me for more market information that is relevant to your homebuying or homeselling needs. I would be happy to meet with you personally and discuss your needs and the current climate for buying and selling.

We may be in a recession with 11% local unemployment, but affordable homes are getting scooped up with multiple offers and in many areas, inventory is shrinking.

Today we’ll look at five areas of San Jose which offer at least some, if not mostly, entry level housing: Blossom Valley, Cambrian Park, Evergreen, Santa Teresa and South San Jose.

Evergreen does have some high-end housing in Silver Creek and elsewhere, but it also provides some very affordable homes for first time home buyers.  Cambrian Park is mostly middle class but it, too, has some McMansions (original Cambrian Park tract with large lots and very old homes that are not infrequently bulldozed) and some homes with views (Vista Loop area, bordering Los Gatos and Almaden Valley).  Blossom Valley has some beautiful properties and many close to thecenics Santa Teresa Foothills.  Overall, though, these homes represent affordable or mid-range houses for sale in Silicon Valley.  When we look at them as a group, it gives a strong sense of what the market is doing generally.

The months of inventory reflect how long it would take the current inventory to be absorbed (or sold off) if no new inventory came on the market and sales continued at the current pace.  Six months is a balanced market.  Fewer represents a seller’s market and more reflects a buyer’s market.  As you can see, April shows a push in all five districts of San Jose into seller’s territory:

Why the change from buyer’s market to seller’s market?  South San Jose and Blossom Valley have been flooded with distressed property sales (though not as much as Alum Rock, which was almost exclusively short sales and bank owned real estate sales the first quarter of 2009), pushing prices down substantially and making home ownership affordable for many who were otherwise priced out of the market a few years ago.   Bargain-hunters have been scooping up these homes.  Prices are stable – approximately flat – so there’s not as much fear for further declines in pricing right now.

To keep it from being too busy, I rounded the numbers to the closest whole number.  Using exact numbers, the averages of these five areas by month is as follows:

Right now, buyers in many areas and price points looking for a home to purchase in Silicon Valley are frustrated with the lack of inventory (or appropriately priced inventory), so this graph will not be a suprise to many of them.

Sellers who are unable to get traffic or offers on their homes may find this baffling.  If the market is so “hot”, then why isn’t my home selling? If you are experiencing this market rejection, it’s not that your home isn’t sellable.  Most likely, it means that your price and condition are not realistic for today’s market – if your home is a normal (not short) sale.  Short sales are trickier as some agents refuse to show them since they are harder to close.

Some buyers are holding off, waiting for the next anticipated flood of short sales and bank owned properties.  How many will there be? We don’t know. It might change the market conditions entirely. Or it could be as significant as the local threat of pandemic from the swine flu.