How’s the Almaden Valley real estate market?   Prices appear to  have been rising, but slipped some this last month. There’s not much inventory in this part of the valley so it remains a seller’s market, incredibly. A  fairly nice 4 bed, 2 bath house in most parts of the San Jose 95120 zip code will still cost about a million dollars (more if it’s in the best areas with best schools and best condition).  A smaller 3-4 bedroom townhouse with good schools will be about half that much unless it’s really young and highly upgraded.

Average Days on Market  & Sale to List Price Ratio for Almaden Valley (San Jose, CA 95120) houses in 2011:

Number of Homes For Sale vs Sold for Almaden Houses on the Market

Date is between Jan 2011 and Dec 2011

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

Listings by Price Range

Date is between Feb 2011 and Jan 2012

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 470 listings

Sales by price range

Date is between Jan 2011 and Dec 2011

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 320 listings

For more info please see my Almaden Valley real estate report.

Houses, sales, pendings, prices in San Jose 95120 for November 2011 – note that they are down month over month and year over year BUT if you go back to October, they were way, way up (double digit). It’s helpful to have the “big picture” and not focus on just a small amount of data. Reviewing several months in a row we see some ups, some down – mostly down (in single or double digits) but when up, it was way up (20-40%). No easy answers here.

Trends At a Glance	Nov 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$935,000	$1,075,000 (-13.0%)	$950,000 (-1.6%)
Average Price	$1,007,750	$1,144,880 (-12.0%)	$1,123,800 (-10.3%)
No. of Sales	19	27 (-29.6%)	21 (-9.5%)
Pending Properties	31	35 (-11.4%)	45 (-31.1%)
Active	55	68 (-19.1%)	93 (-40.9%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.8%	97.0% (+1.9%)	97.5% (+1.3%)
Days on Market	47	52 (-8.7%)	40 (+18.2%)

Numbers for October – notice the big jump from September in pricing!

Trends At a Glance	Oct 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$1,075,000	$822,000 (+30.8%)	$885,000 (+21.5%)
Average Price	$1,144,880	$815,646 (+40.4%)	$910,012 (+25.8%)
No. of Sales	27	24 (+12.5%)	22 (+22.7%)
Pending Properties	35	42 (-16.7%)	41 (-14.6%)
Active	68	67 (+1.5%)	111 (-38.7%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.0%	95.6% (+1.4%)	97.4% (-0.5%)
Days on Market	52	46 (+13.6%)	36 (+42.2%)

The list price to sales price ratio moved up but days on market and number of pendings were off from the month prior – though not year over year. Compared to a year ago, prices are up and all is rosier except the days on market. Buyers may be having trouble adjusting to the rising prices in Almaden.

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$822,000	$835,000 (-1.6%)	$931,000 (-11.7%)
Average Price	$815,646	$868,909 (-6.1%)	$967,599 (-15.7%)
No. of Sales	24	39 (-38.5%)	27 (-11.1%)
Pending Properties	42	37 (+13.5%)	34 (+23.5%)
Active	67	83 (-19.3%)	124 (-46.0%)
Sale vs. List Price	95.6%	97.1% (-1.6%)	98.3% (-2.8%)
Days on Market	46	62 (-26.4%)	37 (+24.1%)

And August:

Trends At a Glance	Aug 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$835,000	$926,000 (-9.8%)	$932,500 (-10.5%)
Average Price	$868,909	$1,038,120 (-16.3%)	$997,688 (-12.9%)
No. of Sales	39	20 (+95.0%)	32 (+21.9%)
Pending Properties	37	53 (-30.2%)	46 (-19.6%)
Active	83	93 (-10.8%)	121 (-31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.1%	97.0% (+0.2%)	99.0% (-1.9%)
Days on Market	62	65 (-5.7%)	36 (+70.9%)

CONDOS

Next the Almaden Valley condo market.  It’s improved over last month!  Some quick stats:
Sales fell 0.0% from the month before, and were up 200.0% year-over-year.  Prices improved in Sep 2011 with the median price climbing 11.6% from the previous month, down 23% compared to last year. The average price rose 22.9%, a yearly loss of 15.7%.  Inventory fell 0.0% from last month, and was down 23.8% year-over-year.

Trends At a Glance	Nov 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$577,000	$495,000 (+16.6%)	$620,000 (-6.9%)
Average Price	$577,000	$498,333 (+15.8%)	$620,000 (-6.9%)
No. of Sales	2	3 (-33.3%)	2 (0.0%)
Pending Properties	3	3 (0.0%)	3 (0.0%)
Active	11	11 (0.0%)	16 (-31.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.5%	98.4% (-1.0%)	95.6% (+1.9%)
Days on Market	118	93 (+25.9%)	34 (+250.8%)

October:

Trends At a Glance	Oct 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$495,000	$512,000 (-3.3%)	$683,000 (-27.5%)
Average Price	$498,333	$560,667 (-11.1%)	$715,250 (-30.3%)
No. of Sales	3	3 (0.0%)	4 (-25.0%)
Pending Properties	3	4 (-25.0%)	2 (+50.0%)
Active	11	12 (-8.3%)	15 (-26.7%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.4%	98.0% (+0.4%)	95.4% (+3.2%)
Days on Market	93	67 (+40.0%)	40 (+134.8%)

September:

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$512,000	$458,900 (+11.6%)	$665,000 (-23.0%)
Average Price	$560,667	$456,300 (+22.9%)	$665,000 (-15.7%)
No. of Sales	3	3 (0.0%)	1 (+200.0%)
Pending Properties	4	5 (-20.0%)	7 (-42.9%)
Active	12	11 (+9.1%)	14 (-14.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.0%	97.3% (+0.7%)	95.3% (+2.8%)
Days on Market	67	91 (-27.0%)	25 (+166.7%)

And for August:

Trends At a Glance	Aug 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$458,900	$565,000 (-18.8%)	$635,000 (-27.7%)
Average Price	$456,300	$555,200 (-17.8%)	$635,000 (-28.1%)
No. of Sales	3	5 (-40.0%)	2 (+50.0%)
Pending Properties	5	5 (0.0%)	3 (+66.7%)
Active	11	13 (-15.4%)	16 (-31.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.3%	98.1% (-0.9%)	98.4% (-1.1%)
Days on Market	91	103 (-11.7%)	7 (+1,121.0%)

Next let’s have a multi year look at the Almaden Valley real estate market.  Below please notice the supply & demand graph going back to late 2007. Although it’s been a “wild ride”, you can see a very clear pattern emerge that around December or January of eacy year, inventory falls (the dark gray line) and relative to the months just before or after, these tend to be “better” for sellers. What’s happening?  The available supply of homes tends to diminish over the holidays.  Prices are perhaps softer than at other times of the year.  Buyers who need to buy, do buy.  The odds of selling are actually higher, in many cases, during this time of year than others!

Here are a few quick stats from Altos Research (which will be automatically updated weekly and to which I have a subscription) – these are based on the list price of townhouses, condominiums and houses for sale in San Jose’s Almaden Valley 95120 area:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in SAN JOSE, CA95120 as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$927,953	Average List Price:	$1,056,795
Total Inventory:	129	Price per Square Foot:	$405
Average Home Size:	2,414	Median Lot Size:	8,580
Average # Beds:	4.04	Average # Baths:	2.72
Homes Absorbed:	11	Newly Listed:	8
Days on Market:	113	Average Age:	36

90-day stats for Condo properties in SAN JOSE, CA95120 as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$606,104	Average List Price:	$637,011
Total Inventory:	17	Price per Square Foot:	$365
Average Home Size:	1,674	Median Lot Size:	n/a
Average # Beds:	2.79	Average # Baths:	2.34
Homes Absorbed:	1	Newly Listed:	1
Days on Market:	178	Average Age:	26

The residential real estate market in San Jose’s Almaden Valley area was a “hot seller’s market” early this year due to more demand than supply but it is cooling slightly now, which will be a great relief to frustrated home buyers, but it has not been giving them the big influx of inventory they’d like to see.

How is the real estate market doing in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? We can look at a few key indicators (median list price, average days on market, and inventory levels) to get a pulse on the current market in the San Jose, 95120, area. Graphs below are from Altos Research; I am a subscriber so may present these to you here. Data used is list pricing. (To see the most recent reports using closed Almaden sales numbers from November, please view my Almaden Valley Real Estate Report, which is from another provider and is another of my subscriptions to get the best data possible for my clients and readers.)

From the solds last month and in prior months, we know that overall, the Almaden real estate market has been deepening in the buyer’s favor. Prices have been slipping, days on the market are lengthening, and list price to sale price ratios have wavered a bit.

Median List Price for Almaden Valley Homes

The graph above reflects the list prices of real estate in Almaden Valley, which is an upscale district on the southestern side of the city of San Jose. Interestingly, while the list prices of single family homes is declining, the list prices of condos and townhomes has performed almost the opposite in the last twelve months and now appears to be level.

Among houses, is it any different from one price point to another?

 
The main difference in pricing by Almaden quartile appears to be one of degree. The highest priced homes appear to be coming down the most, and more affordable or entry-level houses in Almaden are slipping very slightly by comparison.

For Almaden condominiums and townhomes, prices appear to be far more chaotic, with much more volatility in the highest price Almaden townhomes and condos:

Average Days on Market for Almaden Valley Homes 

First we’ll have an overview of the houses and condos in the San Jose, 95120 zip code (Almaden Valley) and their average days on Market.

The condos and single family homes for sale in Almaden have followed mostly similar patterns over the last twelve months and now are both rising. This indicates that it is more difficult to sell a home. Single family homes remain on the market for an average of about 110 days, close to four months. Most of these are not selling, but are either taken off the market, or put back on with a new price and new MLS number.

Next let’s have a look at each class of property by quartile to see if it’s varied or similar.

Single Family Homes

The four quartiles or ranges of prices in Almaden are all fairly similar in how they’ve been behaving except for the lowest price point among single family homes, which appears to have had a nearly steady incread of days on the market over the last year while higher priced points all had a dip (or a rally) over either the spring or summer).  Now, though, homes in the lowest two quartiles have levelled off, while it continues to worsen in the two upper price ranges. Hardest to sell are the highest priced houses in Almaden.

Condos and Townhomes in Almaden

While the list prices for Almaden townhouses and condos showed different patterns, the average days on the market for condos by quartile is simply a wild ride. Twelve months ago, the DOM for most price quartiles was close to 60 except for entry level condos, which were half as many days. In successive months, though, each price point behaved very independently of the others.

The two top quartiles are now selling faster then a year ago, but the entry level condos of the first two quartiles are now staying on the market far longer (and they are the bulk of the condo market).  Why? The condo market in Silicon Valley as a whole has been taking a beating while consumers choose foreclosure houses rather than condos.  Perhaps those living in upscale condos are not there because they can’t afford a house, but prefer the lifestyle that condo or townhouse living provides. Unfortunately, we don’t have that data to offer a definitive explanation.

Almaden Valley Inventory of Homes for Sale

Inventory is another key indicator on market performance.

The graph for inventory is less worrisome then days on the market. Inventory levels are close to flat among townhouses and condominums in Almaden Valley, while the numbers are clearly declining among houses there.

Again, let’s see if it’s the same in all price ranges or if there’s fluctuation. First, among Almaden houses for sale:

I redid this chart a few times to make sure there was not an error. It is oddly uniform across all price points.

And for townhomes and condos in Almaden:

Even within the otherwise somewhat disparate Almaden condo market, the inventory patterns are similar.

Overall, it remains a buyer’s market in Almaden Valley, and this is true for condos and houses and it is true in all price ranges.  Prices run from flat to falling, inventory is dropping (which may just be a seasonal fluctuation), days on market are lengthening.

Sellers need to make their home as perfect as possible. Buyers have never been pickier and the vast majority of buyers today do not want to buy a home and fix at all. Homes that need updating or remodeling either won’t sell or will sell for far less than you might expect. The greatest demand is for turnkey (read: perfect) homes with no issues (read: no busy roads, no high voltage power lines, nothing objectionable nearby).

Buyers, if you are one of the rare few who will buy and fix, the market is at your feet in many cases. Your main challenge will be in selling your current home, if you are a move-up buyer, or in securing financing if you do not have a large downpayment. The best bargains will come to those willing to buy and fix and to those with large cash downpayments where financing becomes much easier.

All of this market information is general. Your home may be unique due to things like views, construction, proximity to schools or golf courses, or any other number of factors. Please contact me for specific information relating to your home or one that you would like to purchase.

How is the Almaden Valley Real Estate Market doing?

It’s the end of September now, and normally we see a little rally in the market after Labor Day. Let’s see how this September is stacking up in Almaden Valley. Below, please find charts using current list prices courtesy of Altos Research (to which I subscribe).

The Median List price for the Almaden Valley district of San Jose (zip code 95120) has been declining overall. Does this mean that homes are declining in value? Or does it mean that less expensive homes are being offered for sale? Information from sold data indicates that by and large, homes are holding their value in Almaden right now. The declines in asking prices may indicate that sellers simply want prices to be rising more than they actually are, rather than the idea that values are falling.

This first chart indicates how both homes and condominiums or townhouses are faring in terms of median list prices in Almaden. Interestingly, the condo market had a steeply rising list price this last spring, while the single family home market did a milder version of the same a couple of months later. What sellers want for their homes is not matching up to what they are getting.

Next, let’s have a look at the percent of homes that have had price reductions in this part of San Jose. A steep increase in the number of condos needing reductions in price are seen in the timeframe following that rise noted above. This would seem to indicate that condo sellers were more optimistic when putting their homes on the market, but found out over the next couple of months that these asking prices were not realistic. The number of properties getting price decreases among single family homes were a bit later, just like the rising list prices were later, in Almaden. Right now, though, the percentage of sellers decreasing their list prices are about the same for both types of housing – appx 52%. So approximately half the homes currently on the market in Almaden have had at least one price reduction.

If homes are listed too high and must take price reductions, then most likely they are on the market a longer time prior to selling too. The next chart addresses the average days on market for the 95120 zip code area of San Jose. For both condominums and single family homes, it appears that the longest days on market were in spring of this year – the peak being in March for houses and April for condos. The single family home market is worsening now, though, and has been rising since mid-summer. The townhouse and condo market, though, is still on a downward trend. In reality, though, the actual statistics for time on the market are probably worse as some agents will change the MLS number when a steep price change happens.

Finally, a look at the inventory (amount of homes for sale) in Almaden Valley’s houses and condos. Not surprisingly, the inventory has risen dramatically among single family residences over the last year, but now it’s decreasing somewhat. (This is not surprising because the days on market had been rising and so is the percentage of homes getting price decreases within this type of housing). The condo market, though, is faring better now, with inventory rising only gradually.

For Almaden Valley home sellers, the market is not as bad as it has been in recent months, but it is important to price your home realistically and have it well marketed in order to sell. For Silicon Valley home buyers wanting to be in an upscale area with good schools, now is a good time to go shopping in Almaden. It is important to realize that homes are not selling for bargain basement prices in Almaden Valley, unlike in other parts of Santa Clara County, but prices are on the soft side. Motivated sellers may list their home aggressively so don’t assume that every house will sell under list price! Do your homework when buying and you’ll be able to maximize the current market potential.

San Jose’s upscale suburb, Almaden Valley, features gorgeous hillside views, great schools, low crime, and consistently nice neighborhoods. Home prices range from a little higher than average to very expensive. How is the real estate market faring in posh Almaden Valley?

Here’s a snapshot view of list prices over the last year in Almaden of both single family houses and condos or town

It is curious to note that condo prices seemed to have an uptick while single family homes had a downtick around March first of this year. Condo and townhouse prices in Almaden appear to be slipping overall since then, while home prices have risen generally, though slipped again a little since July 1st.

Next let’s have a look at asking prices for single family homes, or houses (as opposed to condominiums or townhomes). Below, find the data broken down by quartiles.

It is interesting to see how differently the lowest quartile has done from the highest in Almaden, and also how large a gap there is in the price point between the top and second pricing groups there. Most of the activity in Almaden is somewhat close to $1,000,000 today. Most of these median asking prices are approximately where they were a year ago, and each one had a “peak” in pricing at different points in the last 12 months. While March/April is usually the best time to sell in terms of getting a high price, clearly that hasn’t been the case in all price points in Almaden.

How about with the condo market in Almaden Valley? Let’s see:

Again, there’s quite a difference between one price point and the next. The most expensive, luxury condos in Almaden seem to have had their highest list prices last November, then a lesser peak in about April 2008. For the second quartile, the market appears to have peaked sooner – beginning in about February. And for the last two quartiles, the timing was closer to June!

Almaden Valley is full of micro markets. With this post, it is clear that the price point of condos and houses is one factor to consider. Views, proximity to shopping and golf courses, land, house size are all important too. Another key issue is schools. Much of Almaden has Leland High School, for instance, which is rated very highly. The part closest to downtown San Jose, though, has Pioneer. And one little sliver close to Hicks Road actually has Los Gatos Schools – which are highly acclaimed, but not close by and very inconvenient!

To get a pulse on the market where you live, or where you’d like to live, please give me a call or send me an email. I’d welcome the chance to speak with you about your plans, wants and needs in Almaden Valley.