Luxury home sales remain sluggish in the west valley areas of Santa Clara County. Right now in Almaden Valley, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga, there are over 125 homes for sale listed at more than two million dollars, but in the last month only 6 have sold and closed escrow in those same areas and price ranges.

Today we’ll look at these four Silicon Valley communities and their luxury homes market to see what’s selling and where.

Almaden Valley (San Jose, 95120)

Currently in Almaden there are 11 homes for sale which are listed at or over $2,000,000.  In the last month, zero (0) sold.  That makes for an infinite number of “months of inventory”. It is an extraordinarily deep buyer’s market: great for buyers, a nightmare for sellers of high end homes there.

Will it improve? Probably not soon as there are no houses pending sale in that price range either. There are 55 pending sales in Almaden, but none listed at more than 1.6 mil and the average list price of these pending sales is under 1 mil.
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The condominium & townhouse market is improving dramatically now.  It is evident both in looking at the stats countywide and in my recent experiences holding open my townhouse listings in Saratoga and Sunnyvale as well as recently participating in the sale of a townhome in Almaden Valley (representing a buyer) – all different areas and price points but all very active.

Here are the numbers for May sales of condos and townhomes for all of Santa Clara  County:

As you can see, the days on market are shrinking and prices (both median and average) are rising.  A few numbers cut back slightly in May: the sale to list price ratio retreated a little to 99.9% and the pending properties went down a little too.  But the number of sales were up.

The “months of inventory” or absorption rate is a great way to know how much of a buyer’s or seller’s market it is in any given place. Six months is considered balanced, less is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market.  Here are the months of inventory for selected communities in the “west valley” area of Silicon Valley – they are all “seller’s markets”, but some are strong and some are approaching balanced:

Of course, this is still painting with a broad brush.  The absorption rate for any of these areas may not be accurate for the various price points or school districts that might be found there.  For instance, a large luxury townhouse in Los Gatos which is downtown might be a really different type of market than a small, entry level one bordering Campbell or Cambrian Park.

What everyone’s wondering is if this seller’s market for condominiums and townhouses will continue despite the end of the federal home buyer credit.  To utilize that credit, homes had to be in contract by April 30th.  Most of those should be closed now, or nearing that date at best.  So we’ll really know more as we move into summer. My sense, though, is that what’s driving this market is much more the affordable prices of homes and of loans. The credits are a bonus, but many in Silicon Valley make too much money to be able to use them.

For information on your particular part of the Silicon Valley condo or townhome market, please give me a call or email me!

How’s the move-up real estate market in the west valley areas of Silicon Valley?  Today we’ll have a glance at the segment of the realty market (for houses for sale, not condos or townhomes) with list prices between $800,000 and $1,200,000 in Almaden, Cambrian, Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, the LG Mountains, Cupertino and Campbell.  (Monte Sereno has very few properties in this price range so it wasn’t helpful to break it out separately.)We will look at a few of the statistics for the area as a whole, but look at the absorption rate or months of inventory area by area.

Recent sales: In all of these areas combined, there were 146 houses or duet homes which have closed escrow (sold & closed) in the last 30 days.  Only 4% total were short sales (2%) or bank owned property sales (another 2%).  Bargain hunters trying to scoop up one of these be aware: it’s slim pickings!

Of the 146 houses sold, ten of them went “all cash”, all but one of the rest were “conventional” (could mean any range of downpayments but a regular loan) and one was listed as “other” so it could have been owner financing. None, of course, were FHA backed financing – the limits are too high for that.

For all areas combined, the average list price to sales price was 99.68%.   Lots of variation from one area to the next, though, just as with the absorption rate or MOI, which is covered below. Cupertino’s ratio was 102.34%, while  in Campbell it was 95%.

Absorption rate or months of inventory: It varies on the school district, price point, home type and home sale type (distressed vs regular sale).  For example, in Almaden Valley right now, overall it is a strong seller’s market – prices are rising, especially in the lower price points, and the months of inventory is a very brisk 1.8 (6 is said to be “balanced”, more than 6 is a buyer’s market and less than 6 is a seller’s market). Short sales are at 2.6 months of inventory overall.  But look at homes selling between 1.2 mil and 2 million and it’s a different story: in that part of the market it’s 5.8 months of inventory – almost “balanced”.

Here’s how they stack up for months of inventory:

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San Jose’s Almaden Valley offers a great deal of scenic beauty, much of it enjoyable on foot or by bicycle.  The Alamitos Creek Trail also includes a hint of the region’s past.  Recently I took some photos of the Pfeiffer Stone House, a storage shed for the Goodrich’s Free Stone Quarry that was built around 1875.

You’ll find this curious bit of history at the corner of Graystone Lane and Pfeiffer Ranch Road, along the Alamitos Creek Trail.

View Pfeiffer Stone House in a larger map

This is water district land and the stone hut sits behind a chain link fence together with a plaque put up by the Mountain Charlie Chapter of E Clampus Vitus.

The creek is to the right of this photo, and the Graystone area is off to the left. (To see a few more photos, please click on the link below.)
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This week one of my buyers asked me about the inventory levels in Santa Clara County (San Jose, specificially) and wondered if they’re lower than usual.  I get this question a lot lately so wanted to present the numbers to the readers of this Valley of Hearts Delight Blog. 

How low is the inventory? It’s way off from last year in most parts of the west valley. But remember, last year was unusual.  (Below are the numbers for single family homes, or houses.)

How much is this year’s inventory off from the average of the last 6 years?

Almaden: down appx 10%
Cambrian: down appx 18%
Campbell: down appx 20%
Los Gatos: up appx 6%
Saratoga: up appx 38%

Once again, “easy answers” allude us. 

If we were to push this further, we’d find that certain price points (or bands or strata) in the market are way above or below the typical numbers.  It is very hard to generalize accurately.  Anecdotally, though, it seems as though there’s very little on the market as far as my buyers are concerned (and right now, my buyers are looking at properties in Santa Clara County ranging from the 400s to between 1 and 2 million). 

For information on your particular situation, please contact me.

Single family homes in the more affordable price ranges seem to be flying off the market in the San Jose district of Almaden Valley.  For the last twelve weeks or so, the absorption rate or months of inventory in the 95120 zip code has been hovering around 2 – 3 months. That’s fast!  (6 months is a balanced market, less a sellers market, and more a buyers market.)

This comprehensive post will include data from three subscription based  sources.  First a summary of the October 2009 sold data (care of my RE Report ).  Then, with the aid of Clarus Market Metrics (a subscription through my MLS and real estate board), we’ll take a two year view of the Almaden real estate market, its months of inventory and supply & demand ratios.  Then we’ll incorporate data from Altos Research, another subscription service I utilize, to look at the data for listed homes today, broken down by price quartile (since what may be happening in Almaden overall may not be the experience in a subset of this market).

Fewer homes are coming on the market now, so the old inventory is getting absorbed.  Prices often are getting pushed up in multiple offers if the home sells quickly (in 3 – 4 weeks).
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Last weekend, my husband and I had guests, Tisza and Mel, visiting to help me celebrate my 50th birthday.  They hail from Claremont in southern California and enjoying seeing new and unique places, so Saturday afternoon I suggested that they visit the historic Hacienda Cemetery and Memorial Park in New Almaden, off Almaden Road near Casa Grande. (Tisza is a Realtor and blogger too. You can find her online at Route66Living.com.)

What follows are photos of their trip to the scenic old graveyard, which they kindly permit me to post here.

This area of Santa Clara County was filled with mercury (quicksilver) mines, and that product was vitally important in extracting gold from rock during the gold rush years.  The New Almaden Mine (named after a large mine in Spain called Almaden) was at one point the largest producing mercury mine in the world.

The final resting place for the miners and early San Jose pioneers is an oak-studded glen, close to a creek and in the shadow of foothills.  The graves are each surrounded by picket fences of various styles and shapes.

Here’s a grave with an unpainted fence (most are white).  There are a few markers made of wood – some maintained and others crumbling with age.

Flowering trees add to the beauty of the spot.

One of the most peculiar aspects of this memorial park, and the reason I suggested that Tisza and Mel visit it, is the grave for the arm of Bertram Barrett.

Richard Bertram “Bert” Barrett

His Arm

Lies Here

1898

May It Rest

In Peace

You just don’t see this type of thing everyday.

The Folklore Regarding the Arm of Bert:

Growing up in Santa Clara, I’d always heard the tale of “Bert’s Arm”. It was the stuff of campfire stories, grist for frightening younger kids.   As the story went, Bert’s arm was severed in an accident in 1898 and was buried at the graveyard in the country….. The rest of him went to God in 1959, but by then there was no room left at the little graveyard where his arm was buried. So his body was placed at Oak Hill Cemetery several miles away. (So far, this is all true.)  The fable went on to say that every night, the arm of Bert rises from the ground, searching desperately for the rest of the body…..  At this point, storytellers may move their arms around wildly, gripping ahold of an entranced and scared child to acheive the full impact  (most effective around a campfire, ideally in Almaden Valley somewhere).

I’d heard the story but was suprised to see this marker for Bert’s arm when a field trip for girl scouts from St. Mary’s Elementary School in Los Gatos brought us to this very spot a decade or so ago.

Want to see it? This is not a hard place to find but it’s not exactly on the beaten path.  From downtown San Jose, get onto Almaden Expressway and follow it south until you reach Almaden Road.  Continue on beyond the city’s borders and into the countryside, where you’ll view horses grazing.  After a couple of miles you will be in the historic “New Almaden” area. Normally Casa Grande is open and you can see the museum for the mine, but in 2009 it is closed for renovation.  Bertram Road loops from one part of Almaden Road to another in this neighborhood.  Oddly, the road cuts straight through the graveyard and undoubtedly covers unmarked graves. (I cannot imagine that it isn’t haunted!)

Mel and Tisza enjoyed visiting the Hacienda Cemetery and Memorial Park, and found the story amusing too.  Many thanks to them for sharing their photos of the day with me and with my blog readers!  (And thanks to Tisza too for making the most incredible birthday cake I’ve ever enjoyed!)