How’s the Almaden Valley real estate market?   Prices appear to  have been rising, but slipped some this last month. There’s not much inventory in this part of the valley so it remains a seller’s market, incredibly. A  fairly nice 4 bed, 2 bath house in most parts of the San Jose 95120 zip code will still cost about a million dollars (more if it’s in the best areas with best schools and best condition).  A smaller 3-4 bedroom townhouse with good schools will be about half that much unless it’s really young and highly upgraded.

Average Days on Market  & Sale to List Price Ratio for Almaden Valley (San Jose, CA 95120) houses in 2011:

Number of Homes For Sale vs Sold for Almaden Houses on the Market

Date is between Jan 2011 and Dec 2011

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

Listings by Price Range

Date is between Feb 2011 and Jan 2012

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 470 listings

Sales by price range

Date is between Jan 2011 and Dec 2011

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 320 listings

For more info please see my Almaden Valley real estate report.

Houses, sales, pendings, prices in San Jose 95120 for November 2011 – note that they are down month over month and year over year BUT if you go back to October, they were way, way up (double digit). It’s helpful to have the “big picture” and not focus on just a small amount of data. Reviewing several months in a row we see some ups, some down – mostly down (in single or double digits) but when up, it was way up (20-40%). No easy answers here.

Trends At a Glance	Nov 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$935,000	$1,075,000 (-13.0%)	$950,000 (-1.6%)
Average Price	$1,007,750	$1,144,880 (-12.0%)	$1,123,800 (-10.3%)
No. of Sales	19	27 (-29.6%)	21 (-9.5%)
Pending Properties	31	35 (-11.4%)	45 (-31.1%)
Active	55	68 (-19.1%)	93 (-40.9%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.8%	97.0% (+1.9%)	97.5% (+1.3%)
Days on Market	47	52 (-8.7%)	40 (+18.2%)

Numbers for October – notice the big jump from September in pricing!

Trends At a Glance	Oct 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$1,075,000	$822,000 (+30.8%)	$885,000 (+21.5%)
Average Price	$1,144,880	$815,646 (+40.4%)	$910,012 (+25.8%)
No. of Sales	27	24 (+12.5%)	22 (+22.7%)
Pending Properties	35	42 (-16.7%)	41 (-14.6%)
Active	68	67 (+1.5%)	111 (-38.7%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.0%	95.6% (+1.4%)	97.4% (-0.5%)
Days on Market	52	46 (+13.6%)	36 (+42.2%)

The list price to sales price ratio moved up but days on market and number of pendings were off from the month prior – though not year over year. Compared to a year ago, prices are up and all is rosier except the days on market. Buyers may be having trouble adjusting to the rising prices in Almaden.

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$822,000	$835,000 (-1.6%)	$931,000 (-11.7%)
Average Price	$815,646	$868,909 (-6.1%)	$967,599 (-15.7%)
No. of Sales	24	39 (-38.5%)	27 (-11.1%)
Pending Properties	42	37 (+13.5%)	34 (+23.5%)
Active	67	83 (-19.3%)	124 (-46.0%)
Sale vs. List Price	95.6%	97.1% (-1.6%)	98.3% (-2.8%)
Days on Market	46	62 (-26.4%)	37 (+24.1%)

And August:

Trends At a Glance	Aug 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$835,000	$926,000 (-9.8%)	$932,500 (-10.5%)
Average Price	$868,909	$1,038,120 (-16.3%)	$997,688 (-12.9%)
No. of Sales	39	20 (+95.0%)	32 (+21.9%)
Pending Properties	37	53 (-30.2%)	46 (-19.6%)
Active	83	93 (-10.8%)	121 (-31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.1%	97.0% (+0.2%)	99.0% (-1.9%)
Days on Market	62	65 (-5.7%)	36 (+70.9%)

CONDOS

Next the Almaden Valley condo market.  It’s improved over last month!  Some quick stats:
Sales fell 0.0% from the month before, and were up 200.0% year-over-year.  Prices improved in Sep 2011 with the median price climbing 11.6% from the previous month, down 23% compared to last year. The average price rose 22.9%, a yearly loss of 15.7%.  Inventory fell 0.0% from last month, and was down 23.8% year-over-year.

Trends At a Glance	Nov 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$577,000	$495,000 (+16.6%)	$620,000 (-6.9%)
Average Price	$577,000	$498,333 (+15.8%)	$620,000 (-6.9%)
No. of Sales	2	3 (-33.3%)	2 (0.0%)
Pending Properties	3	3 (0.0%)	3 (0.0%)
Active	11	11 (0.0%)	16 (-31.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.5%	98.4% (-1.0%)	95.6% (+1.9%)
Days on Market	118	93 (+25.9%)	34 (+250.8%)

October:

Trends At a Glance	Oct 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$495,000	$512,000 (-3.3%)	$683,000 (-27.5%)
Average Price	$498,333	$560,667 (-11.1%)	$715,250 (-30.3%)
No. of Sales	3	3 (0.0%)	4 (-25.0%)
Pending Properties	3	4 (-25.0%)	2 (+50.0%)
Active	11	12 (-8.3%)	15 (-26.7%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.4%	98.0% (+0.4%)	95.4% (+3.2%)
Days on Market	93	67 (+40.0%)	40 (+134.8%)

September:

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$512,000	$458,900 (+11.6%)	$665,000 (-23.0%)
Average Price	$560,667	$456,300 (+22.9%)	$665,000 (-15.7%)
No. of Sales	3	3 (0.0%)	1 (+200.0%)
Pending Properties	4	5 (-20.0%)	7 (-42.9%)
Active	12	11 (+9.1%)	14 (-14.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.0%	97.3% (+0.7%)	95.3% (+2.8%)
Days on Market	67	91 (-27.0%)	25 (+166.7%)

And for August:

Trends At a Glance	Aug 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$458,900	$565,000 (-18.8%)	$635,000 (-27.7%)
Average Price	$456,300	$555,200 (-17.8%)	$635,000 (-28.1%)
No. of Sales	3	5 (-40.0%)	2 (+50.0%)
Pending Properties	5	5 (0.0%)	3 (+66.7%)
Active	11	13 (-15.4%)	16 (-31.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.3%	98.1% (-0.9%)	98.4% (-1.1%)
Days on Market	91	103 (-11.7%)	7 (+1,121.0%)

Next let’s have a multi year look at the Almaden Valley real estate market.  Below please notice the supply & demand graph going back to late 2007. Although it’s been a “wild ride”, you can see a very clear pattern emerge that around December or January of eacy year, inventory falls (the dark gray line) and relative to the months just before or after, these tend to be “better” for sellers. What’s happening?  The available supply of homes tends to diminish over the holidays.  Prices are perhaps softer than at other times of the year.  Buyers who need to buy, do buy.  The odds of selling are actually higher, in many cases, during this time of year than others!

Here are a few quick stats from Altos Research (which will be automatically updated weekly and to which I have a subscription) – these are based on the list price of townhouses, condominiums and houses for sale in San Jose’s Almaden Valley 95120 area:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in SAN JOSE, CA95120 as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$927,953	Average List Price:	$1,056,795
Total Inventory:	129	Price per Square Foot:	$405
Average Home Size:	2,414	Median Lot Size:	8,580
Average # Beds:	4.04	Average # Baths:	2.72
Homes Absorbed:	11	Newly Listed:	8
Days on Market:	113	Average Age:	36

90-day stats for Condo properties in SAN JOSE, CA95120 as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$606,104	Average List Price:	$637,011
Total Inventory:	17	Price per Square Foot:	$365
Average Home Size:	1,674	Median Lot Size:	n/a
Average # Beds:	2.79	Average # Baths:	2.34
Homes Absorbed:	1	Newly Listed:	1
Days on Market:	178	Average Age:	26

The residential real estate market in San Jose’s Almaden Valley area was a “hot seller’s market” early this year due to more demand than supply but it is cooling slightly now, which will be a great relief to frustrated home buyers, but it has not been giving them the big influx of inventory they’d like to see.

Today we’re looking at the real estate market for houses in some of the “west valley” communities along the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains – areas where schools are good, crime is low, residents enjoy scenic views of the hills (or of the valley from the hills, depending on the location) and overall, a highly educated population not too far from Highway 85.

Of the four municipalities, three are really very similar to each other in several regards.  Cupertino has the largest population – about 58,000 people – but Los Altos, Los Gatos and Saratoga are all similarly sized, somewhere between 27,000 and 30,000 residents.  The latter three also enjoy a traditional “downtown” area which is popular with pedestrians, bicyclists and motorists alike. (Monte Sereno has 4,000 residents, which is so small that the statistics are very easily thrown from month to month, so it is omitted in this quick study.)  Of the four, Cupertino, then, is the least similar due to size and lack of a central downtown area.

We’ll take a quick look at these areas now in terms of the real estate market trends and statistics for each area, considering just “class 1″ (houses and duet homes).  The charts used below are from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription, and they will be automatically updated each week.

(1) Median List Price (per Altos Research):

Los Altos and Saratoga are neck and neck for most expensive areas in which to purchase a house. Over the last year, though, Los Altos has seen a rise in the median list price. There has been a corresponding rise in demand with the success of several local companies in the region (Apple, Google, Microsoft, LinkedIn, Facebook), some of which have gone public and others of which are on the verge of doing so. Los Altos is more convenient to most of these.

Los Gatos, which is a little more affordable than Saratoga and Los Altos, has seen a very noticeable increase in pricing also, while Cupertino’s prices have declined a little.

(1A) Median list price of the bottom quartile of all four:

(1B) And, very interestingly, same data but for the top quartile – the luxury market:

Here we see Los Altos clearly overtaking Saratoga! And also that Cupertino’s pricing is significantly lower than Los Gatos in this tier, and also that it has lost a lot of ground in the second half of 2011. 

(2) Inventory:

The inventory patterns are pretty consistent over the last year across all four cities and the town of LG.

(3) Average days on market:

It is really interesting to see the days on market by city or area. Los Gatos (the furthest from the high tech giants mentioned above) has had the hardest time with home sales, and Cupertino the easiest. Cupertino is not the closest to all of these firms (though its home to Apple, of course), but it is the a very good value for people who are buying homes based on school performance tests. As others have said, if you’re buying for high API scores, Cupertino offers the most “bang for the buck”.

(4) Median MAI – Market Action Index:

What’s hot?  Everything is under 30, which is the cutoff between buyers’ and sellers’ market – all of these are buyers’ markets when the areas are taken as a whole:

But tease it out by price quartile, and we can see that Cupertino was a seller’s market for the most affortable houses for awhile last summer, but it has crashed back into the buyers’ market range again:

And among the most expenses homes or luxury estates, Cupertino has the “best market” but not by a huge margin:

Right now, Los Gatos has the most inventory and is the deepest buyers’ market – making it an excellent time to purchase a home there!  Of course it always depends on the micro market – the exact neighborhood, condition of the home etc. but overall it’s a very favorable time to purchase a house in all four of these areas, but Los Gatos in particular.  Cupertino is a little more affordable and remains a great bargain in the west valley areas of Santa Clara County.  High end housing or luxury homes are the softest market of all – a tough time to sell but a great time to buy.

Interested in buying or selling a home in Silicon Valley’s west side or nearby? Please call or email me and we can discuss your plans & goals – no obligation.  mary (at) popehandy (dot) com or 408 204-7673

The Campbell, CA, real estate market for condos and townhouses has been a little up & down, but for houses it’s a stronger market.  That does not mean that prices in Campbell are where the owners or sellers would like them to be – just that residential real estate which is appropriately priced is selling pretty well.

Here’s a visual of market conditions (not prices) generally, through June 2011:

What about prices and home values?  Are they holding up?

Campbell houses for sale:  prices appear to be slipping slightly.  Some volatility is to be expected this year and next, so it’s possible to see some up and down (but probably not super dramatic unless you just barely have equity and it’s the difference between being able to sell without bringing money to the closing table or not).  Here are the figures for June – see the whole report on my R E Report site for Campbell CA houses:

The market for houses is good, but pricing is soft, as you can see in the numbers above.

What about for condos?

Condominiums and townhouses in Campbell – see the full real estate report online (updated each month around the 5th – 8th).  Isn’t it interesting that although it’s a cool or cold buyer’s market, prices there are actually inching up pretty noticeably.  That is very good news to condo and townhome owners who want to be doing a “move up”.

Next we’ll take a brief overview of the “big picture” in Campbell’s housing market by looking at statistics related to currently listed homes for both houses and condos or townhomes there. (Charts and data by Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and permission to use here.)

Median Price of condominiums and single family homes:

It’s interesting to see that there’s a rise in the median list price of houses for sale in Campbell whereas a leveling off with the condos and townhouses.

Inventory of houses and condos and townhouses in Campbell – both classes of housing are seeing a rise in inventory, but it’s more dramatic among houses:

Days on the market for homes for sale in Campbell – the two “markets” are now dialectical!

These numbers – for both houses and condos – can only give you a broad picture of what’s going on.  If there are no homes for sale in your townhome community and it’s in a great area, and you price it well etc., you should find it relatively easy to sell.  But if there is too much supply (too many similar homes on the market), it will be far more challenging to sell.

The residential real estate market, like everything else, is all about supply and demand.  For information on your specific neighborhood, please call me or email me today.

For more reading on Campbell CA real estate:

Affordable, Inexpensive Real Estate and Houses for Sale in Campbell, CA

Campbell, California: Once the Heart of the Fruit Canning Industry

Find Campbell, CA Houses for Sale:

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 28. See more city of Campbell real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $1,149,000 : 743 Virginia Av, Campbell
   
   4 beds, 4 full baths

   Home size: 2,600 sq ft

   Lot size: 11,100 sq ft
   
2. $456,000 : 1169 Longfellow Av, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,155 sq ft

   Lot size: 8,211 sq ft
   
3. $830,000 : 1172 Lovell Av, Campbell
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 2,114 sq ft

   Lot size: 14,375 sq ft
   
4. $799,900 : 1300 Patio Dr, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,842 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,194 sq ft
   
5. $835,000 : 1276 W San Tomas Aquino Rd, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 2,011 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,519 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse Campbell, CA Condos Listed for Sale on the MLS:

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 8. See more city of Campbell real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $246,000 : 597 Valley Forge Wy #4, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 840 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,750 sq ft
   
2. $325,000 : 67 Dot Av, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,060 sq ft

   Lot size: 900 sq ft
   
3. $379,000 : 860 Apricot Av #E, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,065 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,306 sq ft
   
4. $270,000 : 2785 S Bascom Av #22, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,262 sq ft

   Lot size: 740 sq ft
   
5. $508,000 : 912 Campisi Wy #205, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,485 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

View townhouses or townhomes  in Campbell, California, listed for sale on the multiple listing service (MLS):

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 12. See more city of Campbell real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $397,900 : 721 W Hacienda Av, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,572 sq ft

   Lot size: 4,400 sq ft
   
2. $399,900 : 101 W Rincon Av, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,141 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,168 sq ft
   
3. $510,000 : 576 W Hacienda Av, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,820 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,400 sq ft
   
4. $345,100 : 236 W Rincon Av #C, Campbell
   
   2 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,319 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,306 sq ft
   
5. $599,000 : 1967 Dry Creek Rd, Campbell
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,558 sq ft

   Lot size: 1,176 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

What happened to the strong buyer’s market, where bargain hunters could scoop up great deals at ridiculously low prices?

Many buyers have waited to “find the bottom of the market”. Now’s the time to get off the fence; the market’s turning and is headed into seller’s market territory (at least in some areas and price points).

One of the best ways to understand the real estate market conditions is to track the absorption rate or months of inventory. Approximately 6 months of inventory is a balanced market. Five or less is a seller’s market and seven or more months is a buyer’s market.

Here’s a view of what’s happening among single family homes in Santa Clara County (about 60% of the county is represented by the City of San Jose):

Inventory is down, sales volume is up, the median sales price is up (it had been holding steady at appx $450,000 for the last three months – this is the first uptick we’ve seen this year). The days on market are holding steady at close to 100 and the percent of list price is hovering at around 97%, where it’s been throughout 2009.  No real signs of slippage here, but there are signs that inventory is being absorbed.

Once inventory starts declining, there will be pressure on prices to go up.  (It is supply and demand driven, of course.)

On the flip side, the foreclosure moratorium will be ending shortly and there may be an increase of inventory.  If that happens, it will stem the tide and it will revert into buyer territory.  Until and unless that happens, though, it looks like Silicon Valley real estate is generally turning back to the seller’s favor after three long, difficult years of buyer gains.