This week one of my buyers asked me about the inventory levels in Santa Clara County (San Jose, specificially) and wondered if they’re lower than usual.  I get this question a lot lately so wanted to present the numbers to the readers of this Valley of Hearts Delight Blog. 

How low is the inventory? It’s way off from last year in most parts of the west valley. But remember, last year was unusual.  (Below are the numbers for single family homes, or houses.)

How much is this year’s inventory off from the average of the last 6 years?

Almaden: down appx 10%
Cambrian: down appx 18%
Campbell: down appx 20%
Los Gatos: up appx 6%
Saratoga: up appx 38%

Once again, “easy answers” allude us. 

If we were to push this further, we’d find that certain price points (or bands or strata) in the market are way above or below the typical numbers.  It is very hard to generalize accurately.  Anecdotally, though, it seems as though there’s very little on the market as far as my buyers are concerned (and right now, my buyers are looking at properties in Santa Clara County ranging from the 400s to between 1 and 2 million). 

For information on your particular situation, please contact me.

The Alta Vista neighborhood, which sits along the border of Los Gatos and the Cambrian Park district of San Jose, is very highly sought after and valued for many, many reasons. Real estate prices vary depending upon the precise location within the neighborhood as well as the size and condition of the home.

Why is this area so popular?  Most of the streets close to Alta Vista School are beautifully tree-lined, and from virtually everywhere in the neighborhood, you are close to Blossom Hill (that’s the name of the hill, not just the name of the road!).  Homes are well kept, streets are wide enough, and except when there’s a school function, there really aren’t too many cars on the street. It is very scenic, pleasant and uncrowded feeling.  Although you’re in the city or town, you feel close to the country there.

Additionally, many homebuyers select this area because the school scores are high and because it’s easy to get to the elementary and middle schools without crossing any major streets: that is a big plus!  It is also a quick drive to highway 85, just a couple of miles to the Los Gatos shopping areas (at Los Gatos Blvd and Blossom Hill Road) or to Vasona Lake County Park.  For many, it’s a way to be close to Los Gatos while paying less expensive San Jose prices.

Prior to being developed for housing, this spot at the base of Blossom Hill was once blanketed in orchards and was scenic enough that it was part of the “blossom tours” that used to take place at the height of the flowering.  Hence, one large section of this neighborhood has street names that begin with “blossom”.

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San Jose’s westside suburb of Cambrian Park appears to have “bottomed out” in February or March.  Home prices are rising there now, at least in many price points.   Cambrian consists of two zip codes, 95124 and 95118 (and a sliver of 95008) and two high school districts, Campbell Union High School District and San Jose Unified School District.

The “months of inventory” reflects how long the current inventory of homes for sale would take to be absorbed if sales continued at the same pace and no new homes came on the market. Six months is a balanced market more than six is a buyer’s market, and less than six is a seller’s market.

As you can see, it’s a seller’s market in Cambrian Park in both school districts!  (This may not be true for all homes in all prices and all conditions, but it is indicative of the overal market.)

With inventory selling really fast, it is not surprising that prices are rising.  Below please view the Altos Report (to which I have a subscription) for the last 6 months:

This is a little busy, but here’s the same data but broken down by price quartile:

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San Jose’s Cambrian Park neigbhorhood offers a variety of home types, sizes, and price ranges, from small condos to large houses on big lots.  Below, please find virtually all MLS listed properties currently for sale in the Cambrian Park Area. The map and info is updated automatically, so please check back often! (You can narrow your search by selecting only certain home types, sizes, etc. And if you like your search, you can “save it” too.)

To browse homes by price:

Cambrian Park - San Jose (zip codes 95124, 95118)
Cambrian Park Homes Under $1,000,000
Cambrian Park Homes $1,000,000 and up

For more information on Cambrian Park neighborhoods, please click on the following link for all Cambrian area posts on this blogsite.

Cambrian Park is a very desireable part of San Jose and the greater Silicon Valley due to its great schools, low crime, proximity to Los Gatos and the general “west valley” area of Santa Clara County.  It’s more affordable than the tonier areas right up against the foothills (for the most part, Cambrian is in the flatlands, though one corder is in the hills snuggled between Los Gatos and Almaden Valley). 

This San Jose district is also a fairly good indicator of how the rest of the valley is doing, so even if you aren’t a resident of Cambrian Park or don’t want to own a home there, it’s helpful to keep a pulse on it.

A disclaimer: Cambrian Park has micro markets, just like everywhere else.  The “zone 14″ includes three school districts (Union, Cambrian, and San Jose), two zip codes and a fraction of another (95124, 951118 and a sliver of 95008) and the borders are messy with Willow Glen, Campbell and Los Gatos in places.  So this is an overview of the region and may not exactly reflect what’s been happening in your precise neighborhood.

Pricing is usually the single biggest question that homeowners have - they want to know if they have any equity: “what’s my home worth?”  In the Cambrian area of San Jose, prices have been declining for a couple or three years, but that phase seems to be over (the peak of the market was late 2006 to early 2007 and prices in Cambrian have now “rolled back” to about 2000-2002 levels in many areas, but some only to 2003 levels).  The low point seems to have been in January, with prices rising since then. Currently, the median sold price of single family homes in Cambrian is down 24% from two years ago (but it was even more 6 months ago). Of course, the dead of winter is usually the time with the least inventory but the best prices, so it’s possible that what we are seeing is only seasonal. We will get confirmation one way or the other soon because prices usually begin tapering in late summer. If prices continue to rise (which I suspect they will as I am seeing so many multiple offers), this will be an indicator that the Cambrian Park real estate market is indeed recovering.

Single family homes in Cambrian -

Condos and townhomes in Cambrian - the median sold price is down 45% over the last two years! The worst point was in February this year.

Supply and demand is what it’s all about - the low prices combined with great FHA backed financing and the $8000 first time homebuyer credit and fueling fence-sitting buyers to jump into the market in San Jose’s more affordable areas such as Blossom Valley and Cambrian Park. 

Below is the supply & demand chart for single family homes in Cambrian (zip codes 95124, 95118 and a tiny bit of 95008, which is primarily Campbell). The number of available homes (listed homes) is down 23% and the number of sold properties is down 20% from two years ago. The worst of it was 12 months ago, though. (Last June to this June: The number of for sale properties is down 37% and the number of sold properties is up 7%.)

Fewer homes are selling, but far fewer are listed, too.

Next, supply and demand for condos in the Cambrian Park area of San Jose:

The condo market is taking a beating because buyers are opting for more affordable houses rather than condominiums and townhomes.

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The tide is turning for Silicon Valley real estate: fewer listings are coming onto the market and more homes are being purchased by homebuyers anxious to get into a house before interest rates rise and the $8000 first time homebuyer’s credit expires.

The shift is most visible in areas with the most affordability, but even is more upscale, higher priced areas, it’s still a noticeable change.

Today I’ll share with you a series of graphs, by area, of single family homes in terms of new listings, current inventory, and pending sales (sales under contract).  These were created using our mls system (information deemed reliable but not guaranteed).

Here’s the “key” (since if I put it alongside each image it would not fit without making all of it unreadable):

Description of each graph is ABOVE the image.

Almaden Valley (95120 area of San Jose) - this is a more expensive part of Santa Clara County, but the market improvement is very clear. Cool market.

Blossom Valley (95123 and 95136 zip codes, an area of San Jose) - this is a very affordable part of Silicon Valley and has taken a huge hit on the “price rollback”.  But it’s getting better now - note the rise in sales, low number of new homes coming on the market and overall lessening of inventory. Number of pendings is almost the same as the total inventory. Hot market.

Cambrian Park (95124 & 95118 area of San Jose) - trends among listings, inventory, and sales for single family homes. The trend of less inventory and more sales is quite evident. Warm market overall - very hot under $500,000, cool in higher price ranges. (But hot only if prices are deeply reduced.)

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If you are a first time homebuyer looking to purchase a house in the Cambrian Park area of San Jose, I encourage you to consider moving on this plan sooner rather than later.  Home prices have stopped sinking and appear to be moving within a range of about 10%, which can easily be attributed to precise location, condition, or situation of the home sale. Meanwhile, interest rates are inching up, making homes less affordable than they were a few weeks ago.

Some of the bank owned homes in this part of San Jose are priced at fire sale prices.  Because of the affordability, they are getting a lot of attention from buyers, and I’m hearing more stories of multiple offers with the prices getting bid up from the list price.  This is not just happening in Cambrian, but all over San Jose where the prices are amazingly affordable for first-time homebuyers.  The availability of FHA backed financing and the $8,000 tax credit are incentivizing people to buy San Jose real estate priced at under $729,000. Investors are also getting in on the cleanup of low-priced homes and “all cash offers” are not unheard of.

Here are the basic real esate sales statistics (and trends) in Cambrian Park:

The lowest median price in recent months was in February, which of course reflects sales that happened in January.  This may well be a “seasonal fluctuation”. Homes are often cheapest in the dead of winter, and interest rates are often lowest then too, but selection is extremely limited.

For more information on Cambrian Park real estate sales and market trends, please see my online Real Estate Report for Cambrian.  You may view the last five years’ worth of closed data, or see it quarterly or annually. Or plug in your own address or that of a home that interests you in the “property analysis” tab and check out the recent listings, current homes for sale, pendings and solds in the immediate area.