Silicon Valley home owners who are thinking of putting their properties on the market are wondering a few things:

• how much is my home worth?
• how long will it take to sell my home?
• how long will it take to close escrow?

Today we’ll discuss how long it takes to sell a home in the San Jose – Silicon Valley areas.

Of homes that have sold and closed in Santa Clara County, the speed of sale and the pending sale time frame depend a lot on the sale type. 

• For short sales, San Jose area homes are typically on the market for about 123 days, then once they are sale pending, it’s approximately 100 days until close of escrow.  Start to finish, it’s about 8 months long! 
• For bank owned properties in Santa Clara County, days on market are often around 75 and the length of escrow 38 days.
• With regular sales, the DOM is a quick 51 and length of escrow averages 39 days.  
• For all sales, the Days on Market was 113.

Let’s look at a particular area within San Jose to see how the numbers might vary.  We’ll take the Cambrian Park district of San Jose for our example (zip codes 95124 and 95118 primarily).  In Cambrian Park, right now there are 184 houses on the market and they average 94 days on the market.  In the same area there 95 pending sales and they average 76 days on the market. In the last month, there were 46 houses that sold & closed and their days on market averaged 52 overall.  Not every home, though, sold so fast or so slowly!

Days on market of Cambrian closed sales in last 30 days:
All combined average DOM = 52
Short sale DOM = 121
Bank Owned DOM = 128
Regular sale DOM = 40

These numbers could be further teased out by price point and school district – but you get the idea.  Some homes will be difficult to sell and some much easier! Even among the “regular sales”, certain homes will tend to sell faster: newer homes, homes on larger lots, houses which are professionally staged, properties which are priced aggressively (rather than “testing the market”).  In many cases, well priced homes that are in good condition and with no “issues” will sell within a month.

Complicate the situation with showing challenges (appt only, no lock box, tenants in the home etc.), a rough condition, difficult sale type or other problems (such as being too close to high voltage power lines, a busy road etc.) and those homes could take much, much longer to sell.

For information on your particular situation and to get a more precise sense on the timing, please contact me today!

The Campbell real estate market appears to be “past the bottom”, as is the case with much of the Silicon Valley housing market. In some parts of San Jose, “the bottom” was in February or March of this year.  Campbell may have hit that point sooner – but in any event it is now heading back toward a balanced market (30 is the balance point for this formula). (Images and charts from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and permission to use these, as well as the RE Report, another subscription service of mine. Altos uses list prices, the RE Report uses sold data as well as list prices.)

Let’s look at the data for October in Campbell – actives, pendings, and closeds (care of the RE Report).

While in many parts of the greater San Jose area the Days on Market (DOM) are lengthening, they are shortening in Campbell! Sales are up, but prices are still declining a bit (in several areas of Santa Clara County, prices are again inching up – this tends to happen in less expensive areas).  Pending sales are up and inventory is down.  So there are some mixed indicators but Campbell appears to be at or near “the bottom”.

The real estate market in Campbell, like in all of Santa Clara County, varies from one price point (and specific location) to the next. Have a look at the recent numbers, broken down into quartile:

Please note in the above image what a big difference there is between the top quartile and the other three price points.  Interestingly, the “hottest” market of the three is the second from the top – a good sized (but not too small) home of about 1800 square feet is the part of the housing market most likely to sell in Campbell right now.  Here are those “days on market” numbers in a graph, blended into rolling averages (7 and 90 days).

Curious that the four quartiles were behaving fairly similarly in terms of the days on market (DOM) until 2009.

What about home values? It looks as though, from the following graph, list prices hit bottom and coasted there for a bit earlier this year prior to having a bit of a rally – and then fell again recently. This could be due to the time of year – or not. We’ll really only know when we get through the winter and look backwards to see where we’ve been. “Hindsight is 20/20″ applies here, too.

Now I’ll insert some “live” charts that will stay current even into the future.

If we look at the median  list price of Campbell, CA, single family homes for sale, with all prices combined (not separated by quartile), it really looks rather bleak:

Separate it out by price quartile, and it’s less alarming (if no less true):

Let’s view them individually, then. First, the most affordable, entry level houses for sales in Campbell, California:

These (above) took a big hit, but then “skated along the bottom” for awhile.

The lower middle quartile has had a less pleasant ride:

The upper middle’s list prices have fallen more constantly – no respite, no plateau, anytime recently:

And the most expensive Campbell homes for sale experienced a good rally in summer before falling again.

A longer view of history, extending back to 2005, shows us that the top tier of homes for sale in Cambpell tends to have the most erratic path – the least predictable, the most tumultuous.

If you are a Campbell homeowner, take heart – many of the indicators point to this being close to the bottom of the market.  If you are a home buyer, interested in purchasing a house in Campbell, now is a fantastic opportunity. Prices have “rolled back” about six years in many segments of this market.

For more information, please visit the Campbell pages on my RE Report for single family homes and also for condos and townhomes.  Or contact me for a confidential, no-obligation consulation on your real estate wants and needs here in Silicon Valley.

The Monte Sereno real estate market tends to be a good indicator of the high end market throughout Siicon Valley or Santa Clara County. While it may not be exactly the same in Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Almaden or Saratoga/Los Gatos, it’s often very similar.

Homes at the high end of the price range have taken a beating in the downturn, as would-be buyers – mostly “move up” home buyers – haven’t got enough equity to purchase the next home.  Many are running into problems getting financing too. So without a large amount of money to put down, it’s very difficult for even willing buyers to make the purchase.

Prices have been dropping in Monte Sereno, as they have been dropping everywhere in the San Jose area.  Although we aren’t seeing the deep discounting here that we see in Alum Rock (where most of the houses bought are distressed properties, either short sales or bank owned homes), the rollback in pricing is still painful for home sellers, especially if they were counting on that money for retirement.

Let’s first look at the recent historical data on list prices in Monte Sereno (graphs courtesy of Altos Research, with which I have a subscription). First here’s a view of the median list price of all houses offered for sale in Monte Sereno in recent years:

Now, the asking prices in Monte Sereno in recent years broken out by quartile (each segment is 25% of the inventory):

The highest priced homes have shown the most volatility, as you can see by the swings in the top line.  That could be a statistical abberation since each quartile represents very, very few homes.

Next, a shorter time frame for a closer-in view.  Monte Sereno list prices by quartile over the last year:

Interestingly, in the above chart it appears that there’s a “levelling off” happening with pricing.  Are we at or near the bottom for those price points? Maybe so.

Now, Monte Sereno list prices with all quartiles combined and overall trend shown for last 180 days (last 6 months):

The dropoff looks like it came from the Giant Dipper roller coaster at Santa Cruz after a nearly 20% drop, but please note that at the tail end, there is an upswing. It appears that the lowest point may have been around May 1st.  Finally, the same quartile breakdown over just the most recent 90 days.

List prices among Monte Sereno houses appear to have stopped declining and are rising slightly in the lowest price ranges.  In the more expensive ranges, which really are more luxury properties than simply homes, the declines continue.

What about days on market and inventory?

A view of all Monte Sereno days on market for listed homes in recent years:

Next, just the last year of DOM among Monte Sereno houses for sale with it broken down by quartile:

The first quartile (black line) represents luxury homes. A year ago, it was difficult to sell the most expensive Monte Sereno properties, but now it is far, far worse – the days on market for luxury homes in Monte Sereno has approximately quadrupled from a year ago for these home sellers! (If you are in the market for an estate property, this is a great time to act as it is a very strong buyer’s market.)

At the other end of the spectrum, the least expensive homes in Monte Sereno also have worsened for days on market, but are selling in about 1/3 the time of the higher priced real estate.

Inventory (in MS and everywhere else in Silicon Valley) is often lowest in December and January, and a quick look at the chart below reveals that the inventory”dips” usually coincide with late December/early January.

Here’s the one-year view: in recent months, the best time to sell was in Feb-April, when there was the least amount of comptetion.

By quartile, same time frame – apparently the timing was about the same for all residential real estate in Monte Sereno – the patterns are almost identical:

It does appear that the dramatic climb in inventory that happened from March to June is levelling off, though.

Days on market are continuing to rise in this small city, but some of the lower price points are no longer dropping and the inventory is no longer rising in Monte Sereno.  The indicators are a little mixed, but in the lowest two quartiles, at least, it looks as though the worst is behind us and perhaps a recovery is underway.    This is what we are seeing in the markets across Silicon Valley, generally – the lowest priced homes are recovering the best and have stopped dropping in price, while the higher priced homes are selling more sluggishly.

It’s stil a great time to buy in all price ranges of Monte Sereno, and it’s still a challenging market to sell – it remains a buyer’s market. Even so, it does appear that things are beginning to shift.