Every couple of weeks I update this post to bring fresh news and data on the Cambrian Park real estate market. On Dec 9th  I went onto the MLS and ran the “months of inventory” or absorption rate of houses and duet homes (what our MLS calls “class 1″)  in “area 14″ or Cambrian area of San Jose. This time I broke it down into price points as well as the type of sale (regular, short sale, bank owned)  so you can pinpoint the pricing for the various segments of the Cambrian market. (Reminder: months of inventory reflects how long it will take to sell a property if sales continue at the current rate. Six months or so is considered “balanced”. More is a buyer’s market and less is a seller’s.)

**please note – typo below – numbers were crunched December 9th, 2011, not December 10th.

Cambrian Park (San Jose) Months of Inventory by sale type & price point Dec 9, 2011

What’s selling? “Regular sales” – non distressed. Not faring so well? Short sales.  In many price points, although many are under contract or pending, FEW – sometimes none – are making it to the closing table.  We are hearing a lot about the streamlined processes for short sales, but these numbers hint at a different reality, namely that Silicon Valley and Cambrian short sales sell but often don’t close escrow.

What is the typical kind of home and price for these neighborhoods?  Of the homes which transferred ownership in the last 30 days, a typical house cost about $600,000, has about 1600 square feet and sits on a lot of around 6700 square feet (and is “partially updated”, not fully remodeled).  The price per square foot averaged $376 but ran from $205 (distressed and on a hugely busy road) to $513 (close to the hills near Almaden and Los Gatos).  If the home you want to buy or sell needs remodeling or is “all original” it’s probably going to sell for less. If it’s in a great area, is a regular sale and absolutely turnkey and fully remodeled, it’ll sell for more.  A beautifully remodeled Cambrian house with 3 bed, 2 bath and 1200 square feet can easily run $600,000 or more if it’s a regular sale and in a good area with no “issues” (high voltage lines, backing to busy road or school etc.).

What about the pending sales? (more…)

In case you haven’t heard, The Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Prevention Act of 2010 (Cal. Health & Safety Code §§ 13260 et seq.) is now law.  As of July 1, 2011, California homes need to have a carbon monoxide detector installed.  This is not a “point of sale” ordinance just for people selling their homes, but instead is for all houses, condominiums, townhouses etc.  (whether occupied by owners or tenants).  For apartment buildings the deadline is later, January 1, 2013.

These detectors look a lot like smoke detectors and can be run on either batteries or plugged into the wall, depending on which model you purchase.  Experts suggest that you place the detector in the sleeping area of the home and on every floor of it (including basement, if your dwelling has one).

To learn more, I suggest doing research online, and be sure to include the Consumer Reports information on carbon monoxide detectors too.  The Cal Fire news release regarding the requirement can be viewed online also.

Located close to the Guadalupe Creek and the foothills of the coastal mountain range, the Montevideo neighborhood enjoys tree lined streets and scenic green views of the hills.  Houses and yards are nicely kept. It is fairly convenient for commuting as it’s not too deeply into the San Jose area of Almaden Valley.  About 500 residents call this beautiful neighborhood home.

The Montevideo Neighborhood in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose

Shuffle board area of Montevideo cabana

In addition to the pleasant vistas, the Montevideo home owners and residents enjoy the cabaña, which includes a community pool, clubhouse, recreation grounds (shuffleboard, volleyball court and more), a fun swim team for kids.   There are very few cabañas in the west valley, so this is a big draw.

Adjacent is the very highly regarded Guadaulupe Elementary School, which can boast API scores in the 900s (it was 930 in the 2010 study). (more…)

Luxury home sales remain sluggish in the west valley areas of Santa Clara County. Right now in Almaden Valley, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga, there are over 125 homes for sale listed at more than two million dollars, but in the last month only 6 have sold and closed escrow in those same areas and price ranges.

Today we’ll look at these four Silicon Valley communities and their luxury homes market to see what’s selling and where.

Almaden Valley (San Jose, 95120)

Currently in Almaden there are 11 homes for sale which are listed at or over $2,000,000.  In the last month, zero (0) sold.  That makes for an infinite number of “months of inventory”. It is an extraordinarily deep buyer’s market: great for buyers, a nightmare for sellers of high end homes there.

Will it improve? Probably not soon as there are no houses pending sale in that price range either. There are 55 pending sales in Almaden, but none listed at more than 1.6 mil and the average list price of these pending sales is under 1 mil.
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The Alta Vista neighborhood, which sits along the border of Los Gatos and the Cambrian Park district of San Jose, is very highly sought after and valued for many, many reasons. Real estate prices vary depending upon the precise location within the neighborhood as well as the size and condition of the home.

Why is this area so popular?  Most of the streets close to Alta Vista School are beautifully tree-lined, and from virtually everywhere in the neighborhood, you are close to Blossom Hill (that’s the name of the hill, not just the name of the road!).  Homes are well kept, streets are wide enough, and except when there’s a school function, there really aren’t too many cars on the street. It is very scenic, pleasant and uncrowded feeling.  Although you’re in the city or town, you feel close to the country there.

Additionally, many homebuyers select this area because the school scores are high and because it’s easy to get to the elementary and middle schools without crossing any major streets: that is a big plus!  It is also a quick drive to highway 85, just a couple of miles to the Los Gatos shopping areas (at Los Gatos Blvd and Blossom Hill Road) or to Vasona Lake County Park.  For many, it’s a way to be close to Los Gatos while paying less expensive San Jose prices.

Prior to being developed for housing, this spot at the base of Blossom Hill was once blanketed in orchards and was scenic enough that it was part of the “blossom tours” that used to take place at the height of the flowering.  Hence, one large section of this neighborhood has street names that begin with “blossom”.

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Today we’ll have a look at the Campbell real estate market. Sitting on the western side of Silicon Valley between downtown San Jose and Los Gatos, Campbell has small town charm with big city ammenities.  The schools are good, the crime is fairly low, and there’s a nice sense of community identity & participation. The downtown area is vital, but so are the shopping hubs outside of the historic zone.  The local parks are a big draw too.

Homes range from modest condos to historic properties and large, estate-like homes on big lots. Just about every type of residential architecture can be found here, with of course a preponderance of ranch style homes but also Eichler homes, Victorian houses, Craftsman style homes, Spanish or Mediterranean design, and Contemporary homes.

“How’s the market?” will elicit different answers by neighborhood, home type, school district, and price point.  We’ll separate out the “markets” by pricing quartile in this post.

First, an overview of listing activity among single family homes in Campbell (data from Altos Research, used by permission/subscription):

And now the same but for condominiums and townhomes:

Generally speaking, inventory is somewhere between flat and barely declining. List prices appear to be falling slightly among single family homes and rising slightly among condos (which are more likely to qualify for FHA loans and benefit from some of the first time homebuyer credits).  Nothing dramatic here, but the condo market may have already hit bottom while the market among single family homes is coasting there … almost there….

Visually, the median list price ”looks” like this when viewed over the course of the last year and both the conglomerates of single family homes and condos are shown (rather than broken down by price quartile):

These kinds of graphs and charts can be a little deceiving, though. The perception has a lot to do with which data you’re looking at. Below is JUST the combined “curve” for the median price of single family homes over the last 1 year.
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The Almaden Valley real estate market is complex – “how it is” very much depends on the price point, school district (there are several in Almaden) and neighborhood.  The broad overview and the micro-view of this San Jose area are both helpful to buyers and sellers. Today we’ll do a little of each. (Graphs courtesy of two subscriptions I have: one is the REReport and the other is Altos Research. Both used by permission.)

First let’s see how Almaden Valley homes for sale fared in recent months, in 2008 and in recent years. Then we’ll have a look at the current situation. Here are a couple of graphs that make clear the condo market in this part of Silicon Valley:

Inventory has been rising in recent months, and sales have been declining fairly steadily in recent years.  If you have friends who sell homes or home loans and work the Almaden or Silicon Valley market, you already know that things have been worsening for quite awhile.

Now let’s look at the single family home market; first is the the days of inventory over the last 18 months or so and then the number of sales in Almaden over the last few years.

The patterns among single family homes in Almaden are even more clear in terms of the numbers of sales: it’s a straight decline.  Time on the market has fluctuated a little but the overall movement has been for longer time to sell a home.

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