How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a fairly strong seller’s market, but like the rest of the county, is in a period of cooling off in terms of pricing, numbers of offers, and sale price to list price ratio.
If you’re selling, perhaps a few months ago, you’d have gotten 6 or 8 offers on your well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced home for sale. Now, maybe it is 3 or 4 offers instead. The offers are often coming in with no contingencies, but there just aren’t as many. The massive overbids are becoming a little less massive.
Part of this seems to be seasonal fluctuation. In my 25 years of selling homes in the Santa Clara Valley, I have seen that in MOST years, late spring and early summer sees a flattening of the market, sometimes even a slight decline in pricing, after the peak months of January through April. Last year, that didn’t happen.
The other part may be “buyer fatigue”. Buyers have had enough with the spiraling-out-of-control prices and terms so strongly in the sellers’ favor. They are voting with their feet.
Further down in this article, we’ll utilize the graphs from Altos Research, which uses list prices, and check out the trends in pricing by quartile in this zip code (meaning 4 groups based on the pricing tier from least to most expensive). Campbell condominiums and townhomes will be considered as well. And finally, a list of homes for sale in Campbell will be found at the bottom of the post.
And now – here are some quick stats, care of my RE Report for Campbell:
CAMPBELL real estate market trends and statistics
|Trends At a Glance||Jul 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,450,000 (-6.5%)||$1,550,000||$1,275,000 (+13.7%)|
|Average Price||$1,563,680 (-1.4%)||$1,586,540||$1,357,390 (+15.2%)|
|No. of Sales||29 (0.0%)||29||40 (-27.5%)|
|Pending||23 (-11.5%)||26||33 (-30.3%)|
|Active||33 (+3.1%)||32||14 (+135.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||104.4% (-4.0%)||108.7%||106.8% (-2.3%)|
|Days on Market||17 (+30.9%)||13||17 (+3.6%)|
|Days of Inventory||34 (+6.7%)||32||11 (+225.1%)|
And the month before:
|Trends At a Glance||Jun 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,550,000 (-1.5%)||$1,574,000||$1,339,800 (+15.7%)|
|Average Price||$1,586,540 (-3.2%)||$1,639,770||$1,397,390 (+13.5%)|
|No. of Sales||29 (-19.4%)||36||47 (-38.3%)|
|Pending||26 (-16.1%)||31||38 (-31.6%)|
|Active||32 (+10.3%)||29||19 (+68.4%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||108.7% (-0.9%)||109.7%||107.6% (+1.0%)|
|Days on Market||13 (-5.7%)||14||17 (-21.1%)|
|Days of Inventory||32 (+32.4%)||24||12 (+173.0%)|
What about the Campbell CA condo market?
My Cambrian area of San Jose Real Estate Report was recently published with the updated numbers from the closed sales last month for this part of San Jose (95124 and 95118 with a little of 95008 too). Please click on the link above to see much more information there. Those charts are below.
First, though, I want to share some info that I pulled from the MLS last night. It does appear that Cambrian home prices have come down quite a bit since the peak of pricing in March. For home sellers wondering why their properties aren’t selling as quickly, this may be helpful. Also it’s good info for those thinking of selling their houses or condos in this second half of 2018.
The very best way to know what the market is doing is to track the same house as it sells and re-sells. However, most home owners don’t move often, so that is not helpful to us. The next best method is to find very similar properties and track them. That would be such as all condos in a large development with approximately the same floor plan / size.
Cambrian often mimics the valley as a whole pretty well, so I thought I would pull up a representative sample from a hot segment of the market to get my own sense of how things are going. I pulled starter homes with Campbell Union High School District, zip code 95124, with 1000 – 1500 SF, 3-4 bedrooms and 2+ baths.
Here are the averages from March to today:
March 2018 (10 sales) average price per SF $1,100.53 average sale price $1,429,612
April 2018 (15 sales) average price per SF $1,138.75 average sale price $1,417,000
May 2018 (14 sales) average price per SF $1,076.54 average sale price $1,375,643
June 2018 (10 sales) average price per SF $980.64 average sale price $1,258,550 (steepest drop from the month before)
July 2018 (12 sales) average price per SF $974.35 average sale price $1,232,958
August 2018 – only 2 closed sales so far, too little data to be helpful
That is a drop in the average sale price of $196,654 over 4 months for this group, or about $49,163.50 per month on average (though some months it is more or less). The data here uses a fairly small pool, so it may not be accurate for all parts of Cambrian, but it is an indicator of what the market is doing overall since this is a very in-demand segment of Cambrian.
If we input this into excel and ask it to generate a forecast through January (which assumes the same rate of change, which may NOT be true), it looks like this – sellers please note, THIS IS WHAT BUYERS ARE THINKING AS THE WAIT TO BID:
Now I need to remind everyone that the market is often not a straight line. Let’s stop and take a look at the county’s sales (average and median prices) to get a sense of that. Although the general trend for the last few years has been upward, please see that there are MANY drops, particularly in the second half of each year.
As is evident, seasonally, the market does often flatten or decline somewhat in the second half of each year. The peak is most often in spring sometime. Very often, the peak is in March (again, that means sales the month before, which is February, and that means getting your house all ready in January). So let’s say that the market does drop at the current rate, in January 2019, this hypothetical Cambrian home would be selling at about $886,000, prior to the possible spring surge in pricing. To get the lowest price means buying in December, not buying in January, most likely. But – December also typically has the lowest inventory, so not much selection. For that reason, if you like a home now, I would suggest buying that home now. Buying a home for yourself and your family is not like buying a stock. You are going to live in it, so you will want to like it. I have seen many buyers try to time the market and end up going through December since they hated what was available, and then they got caught buying in the spring madness, and they paid more.
But who knows if prices will rebound in early 2019 or not. Who knows if prices will continue dropping this year. Some years, we have seen drops followed by rapid appreciation. Last year, prices rose through December, confusing everyone. This could be the beginning of a correction, or it could be a seasonal cool down – a gift for wearing Cambrian home buyers.
If it’s the beginning of a correction, buying now does not make sense unless you plan to be in your home for 10 years or so. If it is a seasonal experience, or a blip, then buying this fall is a good idea, since the new year is very likely to see prices move back up.
Which is it? I do not know for sure. The CEO of my company thinks that prices will trail off for the rest of this year, and then return to their upward march in the spring of 2019 (think Feb – April). When I see the hiring, the Google expansion, I know that people have to live somewhere. It may be a standoff between sellers and buyers on price. My usual advice is simple: if you are ready to get on with your life, and you’re going to stay there 5 or 10 years, buying now most likely makes sense.
Cambrian single family homes trends at a glance – numbers from the RE Report
Sales and turnover are fast and steady, and the sales to list price has remained high, over 110% for many months now. Prices have been slipping fairly steadily since March / April. Usually I only show this month and the one before, but I’ll display 3 months’ of data this time so it’s more clear. Interesting, though, that the sale price to list price ratio is still so high. These numbers reflect all of MLS “area 14”, which includes virtually all of 95124 (some of that is Willow Glen) and 95118 (some of that is Blossom Valley) and a sliver of 95008.
Most of Cambrian did not get the same appreciation as our hottest segment, above, so the general area stats will be a bit different.
Trends at a Glance
|Trends At a Glance||Jul 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,260,000 (-4.0%)||$1,312,500||$1,140,000 (+10.5%)|
|Average Price||$1,311,880 (-5.3%)||$1,385,810||$1,178,450 (+11.3%)|
|No. of Sales||57 (-1.7%)||58||77 (-26.0%)|
|Pending||52 (0.0%)||52||61 (-14.8%)|
|Active||70 (+42.9%)||49||22 (+218.2%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||105.1% (-5.5%)||111.2%||107.9% (-2.6%)|
|Days on Market||17 (+39.4%)||12||19 (-11.0%)|
|Days of Inventory||37 (+50.4%)||25||9 (+329.8%)|
And from the month before: Continue reading
How is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. Last January, for instance, there was only one home listed and none sold!
There are no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno at present (we are watching closely the proposed development at La Rinconada, which is unincorporated as of this writing). One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (a pdf online):
Recently closed home sales in Monte Sereno
Here are the quick statistics for the closed sales in the last complete month to give a sense of how things are going with the Monte Sereno real estate market. Sales data comes from my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report. Given that the supply of homes to study is tiny, what can we tell from this data?
It’s true that an average Monte Sereno house is about $2.5-3.5 million, and often higher in the current market – a little steep for most folks! With 11 active, 6 pending, and 4 sales this past month, low data makes it hard to get the most accurate market information. During times like this, it’s more important to look at the trends over multiple months than to base your understanding of the market off a single month, and to compare with similar, nearby markets such as Los Gatos.
Below are the charts from the last two months. Overall, the market is this part of the valley is mostly flat month over month, but up double digits year over year.
|Trends At a Glance||May 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$4,075,000 (+1.6%)||$4,011,500||$2,663,000 (+53.0%)|
|Average Price||$3,800,000 (-5.3%)||$4,011,500||$2,663,000 (+42.7%)|
|No. of Sales||4 (+100.0%)||2||2 (+100.0%)|
|Pending||6 (+100.0%)||3||5 (+20.0%)|
|Active||11 (+10.0%)||10||17 (-35.3%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||99.1% (-9.0%)||108.8%||96.0% (+3.2%)|
|Days on Market||23 (+102.2%)||12||35 (-33.6%)|
|Days of Inventory||83 (-43.1%)||145||255 (-67.6%)|
And a look at the data from the previous month for the Monte Sereno real estate market:
|Trends At a Glance||Apr 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$4,011,500 (-30.8%)||$5,800,000||$2,878,750 (+39.3%)|
|Average Price||$4,011,500 (-30.8%)||$5,800,000||$2,878,750 (+39.3%)|
|No. of Sales||2 (+100.0%)||1||2 (0.0%)|
|Pending||3 (+200.0%)||1||1 (+200.0%)|
|Active||10 (+42.9%)||7||8 (+25.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||108.8% (+12.6%)||96.7%||95.3% (+14.2%)|
|Days on Market||12 (-84.0%)||72||37 (-68.5%)|
|Days of Inventory||145 (-31.0%)||210||116 (+25.0%)|
Because so few houses sell per month, pricing appears to jump around when that’s not actually the case. I suggest that readers also check the real estate market for Los Gatos to see a larger amount of data. The Monte Sereno home prices tend to be a little higher but generally follow the Los Gatos trends, so it’s worth while to view this info also to get a more balanced sense of how things are for real estate in Monte Sereno. Also, for those considering buying or selling, it’s important to look at the actual listings for each and every sale with similar features, size, amenities to get a sense of your home’s particular subset of the market.
Continue reading to view live Altos Research charts for the real estate market in Monte Sereno, including by pricing quartile. Continue reading
How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?
This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.
First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.
The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”
(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)
Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts.
And for comparison, here’s the chart from last month:
This month the data is back to what’s been the norm as of late – a strong seller’s market with fairly low inventory. Just under 2 MOI is a hot market, but if you look at where the listings are and compare it to the sales you are able to see there is at least one big exception. We can tell that the highest price point, $5+ million, is a much slower buyer’s market, which is common, and the other price points are frequently even lower than the average. Because the inventory is so small, the data can be easily distorted, so it is helpful to look a little farther back for general trends and pricing. As always, each property is unique, so this chart is just a guide and finding the right price to list or offer requires closer inspection and is best done with the help of a qualified agent.
By comparing across school districts you can also see how different each area’s individual market can be. The overall MOI for different school districts this month ranges from 2.375 to 0.75. Small levels of inventory can create big data swings and make for less accurate charts, nevertheless, we can still spot trends if we know where to look.
Update on the Santa Clara real estate market: The realty market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one in which the sellers have a strong upper hand.
Below there are charts for the activities over the last few months. Low inventory from the past year and continuous low inventory around the rest of the Valley means there is still a much greater demand to fill than properties available. This is clear in the sales price vs list price, which at it’s current high of 119.5%, and has been on the rise after staying near 110% for months. Also, the speed of market turnover (how long a house is on the market) has remained low as far back as we can see on these charts and in under a month. Further in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.
Here’s a glance at the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes. See the statistics and trends for closings and listings for last month – updated each month on about the 5th – 10th on my RE Report site for realty stats & trends in Santa Clara:
|Trends At a Glance||Mar 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,600,000 (-3.3%)||$1,655,000||$1,125,000 (+42.2%)|
|Average Price||$1,616,220 (-4.1%)||$1,685,290||$1,236,620 (+30.7%)|
|No. of Sales||57 (+83.9%)||31||45 (+26.7%)|
|Pending||42 (-6.7%)||45||45 (-6.7%)|
|Active||18 (0.0%)||18||38 (-52.6%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||119.5% (+2.2%)||117.0%||106.3% (+12.4%)|
|Days on Market||9 (-37.2%)||14||13 (-35.5%)|
|Days of Inventory||9 (-39.6%)||16||25 (-62.6%)|
And the Santa Clara real estate market statistics from last month:
How’s the Mountain View real estate market? This is one of the very hottest areas within Silicon Valley and is home to a myriad of high tech companies and in a stone’s throw of others. With a charming and walkable downtown, easy access to CalTrain and a vibrant atmosphere conducive to both work and play, it is no wonder that people relocating to the San Francisco Bay Area or Silicon Valley place Mountain View squarely in their target.
All that popularity comes at a cost, though. Prices have been sky high here for years, both for rentals and for home purchasing. The good news, though, for those with property or those who take the plunge and buy: it doesn’t look like Mountain View is going to lose its appeal anytime soon.
In this article, which is updated periodically, we will include live Altos Charts which automatically update weekly (so bookmark this page!) as well as monthly insights from the Real Estate Report for Mountain View. And time to time it will be enhanced with “in the trenches” commentary, too.
Overview of the city of Mountain View’s residential real estate market for houses:
Here are the statistics for sales in the last few months. You can see that the average days on market are low at 9 days with homes on average selling well over list price at 114.5%. Overall, the Mountain View housing market is still a steady seller’s market. See the whole Mountain View Real Estate Report online here.
|Trends At a Glance||Mar 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$2,550,000 (+5.7%)||$2,412,500||$1,815,000 (+40.5%)|
|Average Price||$2,528,430 (+7.3%)||$2,356,290||$1,922,770 (+31.5%)|
|No. of Sales||21 (+50.0%)||14||22 (-4.5%)|
|Pending||17 (-15.0%)||20||17 (0.0%)|
|Active||6 (+50.0%)||4||9 (-33.3%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||114.5% (-3.4%)||118.5%||105.8% (+8.2%)|
|Days on Market||9 (-48.1%)||17||27 (-67.5%)|
|Days of Inventory||9 (+11.1%)||8||12 (-30.2%)|
And the chart from last month for comparison:
|Trends At a Glance||Feb 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$2,412,500 (+0.5%)||$2,400,000||$1,777,500 (+35.7%)|
|Average Price||$2,356,290 (-5.4%)||$2,491,000||$1,765,930 (+33.4%)|
|No. of Sales||14 (+180.0%)||5||14 (0.0%)|
|Pending||20 (+17.6%)||17||11 (+81.8%)|
|Active||4 (-20.0%)||5||16 (-75.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||118.5% (+4.3%)||113.6%||109.7% (+8.0%)|
|Days on Market||17 (+99.8%)||8||14 (+21.1%)|
|Days of Inventory||8 (-74.3%)||30||31 (-75.0%)|
The Oaktree Park neighborhood in San Jose is a scenic residential community with wide appeal to home buyers due to good Almaden schools, close proximity to large parks and is one of only a few areas in Almaden Valley which includes a cabaña and swim team. Additionally, this area is very convenient as it’s close to schools, shops and commute routes to downtown San Jose and much of Silicon Valley. It is a fairly intimate neighborhood with 156 homes.
Where is the Oaktree Park neighborhood?
The Oaktree Park subdivision is within the boundaries of Meridian Avenue, Redmond Avenue and Mcabbe Road on three sides and the Jeffrey Fontana Park on the north side.
The census bureau (and perhaps also the city of San Jose) has attributed names to some parts of Almaden and this neighborhood falls into the Crossgates section. I do not believe that most residents refer to this area that way, though. Perhaps more likely they’d call it part of the greater Fontana Park neighborhood. Just the other side of Meridian is the vastly larger Almaden Meadows neighborhood.
What schools serve the Oaktree Park neighborhood in San Jose?
The public schools for Oaktree Park are within the San Jose Unified School District:
Los Alamitos Elementary School (API 935 in 2013)
Castillero Middle School (API 846 in 2013)
Pioneer High School (API 822 in 2013)
Los Alamitos Elementary and Holy Spirit Elementary (Catholic) are both just a couple of blocks from Oaktree Park. Additonally there are 2 preschools really close too: Precious Preschool and Shepherd of the Valley Lutheran Preschool.
For more information and links for schools, school districts, API scores and maps of boundaries lines for schools in the Almaden area of San Jose, please also read:
What are homes like in Oaktree Park?
Homes in Oaktree Park are single family dwellings – all detached houses (no townhouses or condominiums). These are primarily ranch style or two story ranch style houses, built in the early 1970s on lots of about 8000 to 9000 square feet, though a few are more than that. Interior size runs between about 1600 square feet to about 3000 square feet (if added on). Prices may be in the mid 600s for a smaller home, needing work and a less desirable location (such as on a busy road or immediately adjacent to the high voltage power lines that run through the park) to perhaps a little over a million dollars for a beautifully updated or rebuilt larger home in an ideal location within the neighborhood. In the current market (June 2017), smaller homes are going between the mid $900s to the mid $1.1 million mark and larger homes are selling between $1.2-$1.3 million.
More information on the Oaktree Park neighborhood below!
Why is it so hard to buy a home in Silicon Valley? Most of it has to do with our ongoing and severe inventory shortage.
I initially wrote the article below on Feb 9, 2012. I thought it was bad then – and I suppose that relatively speaking, it was. But it’s much worse now!
Today is May 1, 2017, and I ran the numbers of available single family homes in Santa Clara County in a chart comparing since January of 2012. Have a look, and please note the year over year numbers:
The situation has only intensified since I first wrote this article in early 2012. There are many reasons for the problem: older people won’t sell for tax reasons (mostly capital gains). move up buyers who elect to stay and add on rather than deal with hugely increased property taxes. In general, home owners are opting to “buy and hold”.
Is it hard to buy a house in the San Jose area? You bet. And unfortunately, I don’t see an end in sight anytime soon.
Original article: Feb 9, 2012
Right now I’m working with a number of very frustrated home buyers. Silicon Valley real estate inventory is painfully low, and in the lower price ranges especially, that means multiple offers are fairly common. FHA home buyers, in particular, are getting out bid and out negotiated by all cash buyers, many of whom are investors.
How low is the inventory? Let’s have a look at January’s inventory for houses & duet homes (“class 1” or single family homes) over the last ten years in Santa Clara County (San Jose, Los Gatos, Campbell, etc.):
The average January inventory of available houses over the last 10 years is 2,636. At 1,382, January 2012’s available inventory of houses for sale in the San Jose area was just 52% of normal. Continue reading
Today consumers have a lot of choices as to where to search for properties for sale in Silicon Valley (the South Bay area, Santa Clara County, San Jose, Los Gatos, Almaden etc.). But not all “find a home” sites are equally accurate. Some websites display listings that are sale pending, sold & closed or even withdrawn.
The very best, most accurate and most often updated site is the public branch of our agent-supported Multiple Listing Service or MLS, which is MLSListings.com. You can find it at www.MLSListings.com. (If sending your own agent info a house, it is helpful if you provide both the street address and the MLS #. By the way, the first few digits of the number imply the year that the listing was put into the system. 811 = 2011. 810 = 2010.)
Why is MLSListings.com the best source for finding Silicon Valley homes for sale?
It is updated constantly. Within a few minutes of whenever a real estate agent or broker changes the listing status, comments, photos, showing instructions, open house information,etc., the new information is displayed on MLSListings. While it’s not instantaneous, most changes appear within 5-10 minutes (photos being the slowest to load).
MLSListings is syndicated out to some other sites, but some don’t update often (or at all). Other sites rely upon the listing agent to go to that one site and update the status. Realtors and other licensees get busy and this task may slip through the cracks, making you believe that a home is available when it’s not. MLSListings.com is the source.
You don’t have to register. Some of the portals that you might consider visiting to view the MLS info may not include the virtual tour or all pics – or might show them to you only if you register. You do not need to register to view houses, condos, townhouses, multi units etc. on MLSListings.com. Continue reading
It’s possible to live in Silicon Valley and have no idea that there are still some original adobe houses to be found right here in the San Jose area. Today, though, I hope to help some of our residents discover the past which is lurking right in front of us!
The historic Adobe Woman’s Club is just a block or two off the campus of Santa Clara University, tucked away on a side street now that The Alameda is re-routed as The El Camino. Address: 3260 The Alameda, Santa Clara. According to the state’s historical preservation site, this state landmark # 249 is one of the oldest in the Santa Clara Valley, was built between 1792 and 1800 and was one of many row houses built for the native Americans who worked at Mission Santa Clara. Please note that this is private property and you may not enter without permission, but the adobe abode is very visible from the sidewalk.
Today the beautifully preserved adobe house functions as a nonprofit group with these objectives: “to promote educational, moral, social welfare, cultural, civic and community service. Anyone who supports these objectives is welcome.” This scenic place can also be rented out for private events. The garden is quite lovely and the interior appears to be very modern. You can see photos of the inside of the house at the club’s website: The Santa Clara Woman’s Club.