inventory

How is the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market?  Campbell is in a fairly strong seller’s market, but like the rest of the county, is in a period of leveling off in terms of pricing, numbers of offers, and sale price to list price ratio. 

If you’re selling, perhaps a few months ago, you’d have gotten 6 or 8 offers on your well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced home for sale. Now, maybe it is 3 or 4 offers instead. The offers are often coming in with no contingencies, but there just aren’t as many.  The massive overbids are becoming a little less massive.

Part of this seems to be seasonal fluctuation. In my 25 years of selling homes in the Santa Clara Valley,  I have seen that in MOST years, late spring and early summer sees a flattening of the market, sometimes even a slight decline in pricing, after the peak months of January through April. Last year, the market was so fiercely competitive that we didn’t see that pattern at all. One statistics expert said to me that “the pattern is broken”. But – it looks to me like it’s back

Further down in this article, we’ll utilize the graphs from Altos Research, which uses list prices, and check out the trends in pricing by quartile in this zip code (meaning 4 groups based on the pricing tier from least to most expensive). Campbell condominiums and townhomes will be considered as well. And finally, a list of homes for sale in Campbell will be found at the bottom of the post.

And now –  here are some quick stats, care of my RE Report for Campbell:

CAMPBELL real estate market trends and statistics

Trends At a Glance May 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,574,000 (+1.2%) $1,555,000 $1,250,000 (+25.9%)
Average Price $1,639,770 (+1.0%) $1,623,920 $1,273,540 (+28.8%)
No. of Sales 36 (+80.0%) 20 42 (-14.3%)
Pending 31 (+3.3%) 30 43 (-27.9%)
Active 29 (+26.1%) 23 18 (+61.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 109.7% (-2.7%) 112.7% 107.4% (+2.1%)
Days on Market 14 (+35.4%) 10 26 (-46.5%)
Days of Inventory 24 (-27.5%) 33 13 (+88.0%)

 

And last month’s chart for comparison:

 

What about the Campbell CA condo market?

Continue reading

How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.

First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.

The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”

(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)

Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts.

2a - Saratoga, CA, Real Estate Market Update

And for comparison, here’s the chart from last month:

2A - Saratoga, CA, Real Estate Market Update

This month the data is back to what’s been the norm as of late – a strong seller’s market with fairly low inventory. Just under 2 MOI is a hot market, but if you look at where the listings are and compare it to the sales you are able to see there is at least one big exception. We can tell that the highest price point, $5+ million, is a much slower buyer’s market, which is common, and the other price points are frequently even lower than the average. Because the inventory is so small, the data can be easily distorted, so it is helpful to look a little farther back for general trends and pricing. As always, each property is unique, so this chart is just a guide and finding the right price to list or offer requires closer inspection and is best done with the help of a qualified agent.

By comparing across school districts you can also see how different each area’s individual market can be. The overall MOI for different school districts this month ranges from 2.375 to 0.75. Small levels of inventory can create big data swings and make for less accurate charts, nevertheless, we can still spot trends if we know where to look.

 

Continue reading

Buying a home in Silicon Valley is seldom easy, but right now, it’s nearly impossible with Santa Clara County’s critically low housing inventory.  With slightly rising interest rates getting folks off the fence and strong job growth in the San Jose area – especially since Google announced its expansion in downtown, there are many more home buyers than home sellers.   While this isn’t unusual, the severity of the problem certainly is extreme.    How bad is it?  Here’s a visual cue dating from January 2001 to March 2018 which indicates that this month’s inventory of single family homes for sale in Santa Clara County is the lowest we’ve had for March since 2001 (that’s as far back as I can get the data from MLS Listings). I’ve been selling homes for 25 years and have never seen it so dire.

2018-03-23 Inventory of Single Family Homes for Sale in Santa Clara County (status 1 only)

This is sort of like “inventory limbo” – how low can you go? To me, this is uncharted territory for our region.

I am really wondering if other cities around the world have had this kind of inventory crisis in the past, and if so, what happened to pull them out of it. Obviously, we need more inventory, and that will mean either more new construction, incentives for current owners to sell, an easier way for people to commute long distances to work, or some combination of the three.

How does this impact you?

Many long time residents may recall that we have had a shortage for a few years here.  In January 2012, I wrote about it here: Why is it so hard to buy Silicon Valley real estate right now?  Compared to the recession that had just ended, inventory was low – I can look back now and think “wow, we had no right to complain!  We had a lot more inventory then as we do now!”  What also happened is that with the restricted inventory, home prices rose.  A lot.

If you are a renter and want to be a home buyer, you  now have two things going against you: rising interest rates and rising home prices (due to strong demand and critically low supply of homes to buy).  If you wait a year, there’s a good chance that you will lose quite a lot of buying power as interest rates continue to go up and home prices do, too.   Please check out my article on rates: How will rising interest rates impact your home buying power?  Super low inventories tend to cause rapid price appreciation, and if you aren’t careful you could be priced out of the market (either because of home prices or because of those rising interest rates).

Normally, I’d be saying “take heart, buyers, inventory usually starts to rise after the SuperBowl” or “inventory rises after Valentine’s Day” or “we’ll see more homes coming on the market in March”. Well, it just hasn’t happened to any kind of significant degree.

If you are a seller, this is great news for you as it’s very likely that your equity will be increasing with the tight inventory.  Buyer demand is good and interest rates are still very tolerable.  It is hard if you want to sell and buy something else, but if you are down-sizing, you may be able to capitalize by purchasing all cash.

If you are a buyer, it’s important to realize that these days, most homes are selling with no contingencies of any kind (loan, appraisal, inspection). Purchasing a condo, townhome, or house is not for the faint of heart! Being not just pre-approved, but having an underwriter’s approval subject only to the ratified contract, a preliminary title report, and a satisfactory appraisal will put you into a better position. Cash is king, of course, so being able to absorb any appraisal shortfall is crucial. However, don’t let the all cash buyers scare you as some of them over estimate the value of cash. Most sellers will wait a few extra days if it means making more money on the sale.

Severe inventory shortage

Why is it so hard to buy a home in Silicon Valley?  Most of it has to do with our ongoing and severe inventory shortage.

I initially wrote the article below on Feb 9, 2012.  I thought it was bad then – and I suppose that relatively speaking, it was. But it’s much worse now!

Today is May 1, 2017, and I ran the numbers of available single family homes in Santa Clara County in a chart comparing since January of 2012.  Have a look, and please note the year over year numbers:

2017-05-01 Santa Clara County Inventory of Single Family Homes

The situation has only intensified since I first wrote this article in early 2012.  There are many reasons for the problem: older people won’t sell for tax reasons (mostly capital gains). move up buyers who elect to stay and add on rather than deal with hugely increased property taxes.  In general, home owners are opting to “buy and hold”.

Is it hard to buy a house in the San Jose area? You bet.  And unfortunately, I don’t see an end in sight anytime soon.

*********************************

Original article: Feb 9, 2012

Right now I’m working with a number of very frustrated home buyers.  Silicon Valley real estate inventory is painfully low, and in the lower price ranges especially, that means multiple offers are fairly common.  FHA home buyers, in particular, are getting out bid and out negotiated by all cash buyers, many of whom are investors.

How low is the inventory?  Let’s have a look at January’s inventory for houses & duet homes (“class 1” or single family homes) over the last ten years in Santa Clara County (San Jose, Los Gatos, Campbell, etc.):

2012  1,382
2011  2,007
2010  2,426
2009  4,759
2008  4,872
2007  2,698
2006  2,202
2005  1,285
2004  1,612
2003  3,119

The average January inventory of available houses over the last 10 years is 2,636.  At 1,382, January 2012’s available inventory of houses for sale in the San Jose area was just 52% of normalContinue reading

Santa Clara County is experiencing critically low inventory of homes for sale and it’s at the level of a true inventory crisis. It’s not unusual to see listings decrease in December, but this is more than the normal dip of properties on the market in Silicon Valley. It’s worse.

This afternoon I ran the statistics on MLSListings, and here’s what I see for available listings of single family homes in Santa Clara County (the greater San Jose area):

Santa Clara County inventory of single family homes as of 12-7-2016

Usually the data is taken from the last day of the month, and obviously doing this on the 7th may skew it a little for this month (or maybe not: perhaps it will be lower still!). But check out the year over year figures – what do you see as typical for November or December going back as far as 2002?

Buyers are jumping on the best properties. I’m finding multiple offers on a wide variety of houses and in all kinds of price ranges and locations, including Morgan Hill, which is often much more sluggish than parts north. (This is not the story of every house on the market, of course. Many are badly photographed, overpriced, hard to see, not clean, or have other issues which make them undesirable to Silicon Valley home buyers. When real estate has an attractive price, is clean and shows well, is nicely marketed, staged, accessible, etc., it will get a crowd of interested buyers. Or at least one!)

 

Interest rates and the inventory crisis

No doubt, interest rates are a huge factor in the low inventory crisis, as they impact buying power.

If a home buyer could afford a monthly payment of $4000, here’s what happens with different interest rates (assuming a 30  year fixed mortgage):

$4000 at last winter’s rate of 3.5% = loan amount of $1,002,127
$4000 payment at today’s rate of 4.125% = loan amount of $928,506
$4000 payment at a rate of 5% (within a few years?) = loan amount of $838,267

Rising interest rates may stunt price appreciation somewhat, but you cannot count on it – it does not always happen. Or there may be a pressure downward on pricing, but perhaps not proportional (not enough help for the stretched home buyer).

Scarcity and multiple offers

Houses priced aggressively (lower than what the sellers and listing agent think it’s truly worth) to attract multiple offers are getting huge results and overbids. Not every property is selling fast, but on average, homes are going for more than 100% of list price in this area. With multiple offer situations, buyers who succeed in winning are those with larger down payments (more than 20%), few or no contingencies, a high price, and of course offer an As Is sale.

If you are a home buyer trying to compete in this challenging real estate market, please take a look at this summary article and the six related posts:

http://sanjoserealestatelosgatoshomes.com/summary-of-tips-for-multiple-offer-situations-silicon-valley-real-estate-contracts/

If you are a home owner thinking of selling, now is a great time! The lower the inventory the better your odds are of selling. If you tried selling your property without success this year, please read this article on why some houses or condos don’t sell:
http://sanjoserealestatelosgatoshomes.com/why-didnt-my-san-jose-home-sell/. Another article on that same topic is on my popehandy.com site: Things which will make a home buyer RUN from purchasing your home

And back to the first question about inventory: when will it rise? As you study the chart, above, you’ll notice that inventory normally rises in spring and peaks in the summer most years. So, buyers, continue looking and hang on. There will be some new offerings in the new year, and by March we should see a significant uptick. If not, look out – prices will go up even faster. So if you find a home you love now, don’t wait.

Home buying in Silicon ValleyFirst time home buyers in Silicon Valley and folks relocating from out of the San Francisco Bay Area often ask me if buying a home in late fall or winter is a good idea, or if it would be  better to wait until spring, when there’s presumably more inventory.  That’s not an easy answer. In the San Jose area, the weather is not so big a factor as it would be in places such as Buffalo, New York, where my friend Colleen Kulikowski sells homes. We sell a good number of homes year-round here, thanks to our sub-tropical climate.  This is true even when we get a whole lot of rain.

The real estate market is a little different each year, but there are some general trends – you just cannot count on them, that’s all!  Here are some “usually” situations, but please know that this may or may not apply the year you want to purchase a property!

  • Usually we see the most inventory in summer (followed by spring)
  • Usually we see the least inventory in winter (especially between about Thanksgiving and the Superbowl)
  • Prices are normally softest in winter
  • Interest rates on mortgages or loans are normally at their lowest during the winter

If you want a better deal, shop in the late fall and winter.  If you want more selection, shop in spring and summer (but it will often cost more!). It is up to you!

What I normally tell my clients is this:  buy the home you want to live in, when you’re ready, regardless of the time of year.

See what’s currently for sale in Santa Clara County on the map below:

  1. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 2,231 sq ft
    Lot size: 4,743 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 4 baths
    Home size: 2,938 sq ft
    Lot size: 13,647 sqft
  3. 0 beds, 0 bath
    Home size: 3,453 sq ft
    Lot size: 3,672 sqft
  4. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,282 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,893 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 2,100 sq ft
    Lot size: 8,097 sqft
  6. 5 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,772 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,098 sqft
  7. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,622 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,278 sqft
  8. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,409 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,972 sqft
  9. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,519 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,455 sqft
  10. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,726 sq ft
    Lot size: 2,029 sqft

See all Real estate in the city of San Jose.
(all data current as of 7/21/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

The inventory of available homes to buy is painfully low throughout San Jose, Santa Clara County, and Silicon Valley. Here’s a view of San Jose’s real estate listings inventory over the last few years: it gives a good idea of how far out of balance the supply and demand formula is.    The amount of inventory normally is lowest in December and January, and it usually begins to rise by the middle of February.  In the chart below, you can see a marked point downward at around the 1st of each year.  In recent years, though, that’s not the only time when it dips to the low side.  Also it should be noted that we have seen lower inventory in the last few years – just not during this season.

app?pai=50109450&service=chart&st=CA&cid=60&zid=2897591&rt=sf&ra=a&q=a&s=median inventory&sz=l&ts=z&theme=newchart - When will Silicon Valley housing inventory begin to rise again?

If we step back and consider all of Santa Clara County instead, the pattern looks much the same. Continue reading

June 20 2014 San Jose Condo Inventory

June 20 2014 San Jose Condo Inventory

Home prices, like anything else which is bought and sold, are subject to the pressures of supply and demand.   In recent weeks, we have seen an increase in the number of condominiums and townhomes for sale in San Jose, but a slight lessening in buyer interest.  More supply with less demand equals lower prices.  This will be a bit of a shock to most home sellers, who’d read about the madness of the market in February, March and April.  But spring is nearly always stronger than summer – and we are seeing a fairly typical calming down in the Silicon Valley real estate market as we move into that milder summer market.

Since I mostly sell in the “west valley” areas of the Santa Clara Valley, I had a look at a few of them just to see what the trends look like. In this chart, please see the inventory of condominiums and townhomes for sale in 95120 (Almaden Valley), 95123 (Blossom Valley), 95124 (Cambrian) and 95125 (Willow Glen). Almaden seldom has many listings of townhouses or condos at all – over the last year, it looks as though it’s usually close to 5 at any given time. A slight uptick means 6 are available. The trend is much more dramatic in other parts of San Jose.

Home sellers: where the inventory rise is the steepest, you will probably see the most impact on the odds of selling and the price for which you can sell your home.   Home buyers:  if you see that inventory is largely unchanging, as it is in the tony Almaden Valley, the odds are good that it’s still pretty competitive for home buying and you will likely need to bring your best game forward to secure your future home.

Interested in other areas?  I work all of Santa Clara County and would be happy to help you buy or sell your condo, townhouse or single family home here.

June 20 2014 condo inventory 95120 95123 95124 95125

June 20 2014 condo inventory 95120 95123 95124 95125

  1. 1 bed, 1 bath
    Home size: 633 sq ft
    Lot size: 2,766 sqft
  2. 2 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,026 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,093 sqft
  3. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,250 sq ft
    Lot size: 500 sqft
  4. 2 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 968 sq ft
    Lot size: 18,687 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,156 sq ft
    Lot size: 853 sqft
  6. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,350 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,498 sqft
  7. 2 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 880 sq ft
    Lot size: 4,930 sqft
  8. 2 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,154 sq ft
    Lot size: 4,848 sqft
  9. 3 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,666 sq ft
    Lot size: 2,996 sqft
  10. 2 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,815 sq ft
    Lot size: 4,146 sqft

See all Real estate in the city of San Jose.
(all data current as of 7/21/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Inventory shortageThe low amount of housing inventory for sale amidst economic recovery spells trouble for buyers, first because there’s little to choose from, and second, because the best homes go awfully fast, with multiple offers, at over list price and often – in Silicon Valley, at least – with no contingencies for inspection or property condition, loan or appraisal.

Why is inventory so low?  When will it get better?

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, I was at a real estate seminar at the San Jose Convention Center presented by Brian Buffini of Buffini and Company (out of the San Diego area).   Joe Niego, one of the presenters, shared five reasons why real estate inventory is tight:

  1. Boomerang buyers (home buyers coming back into the market after foreclosure or short sales – they don’t remain renters)
  2. Echo boomers entering the market (age 18-31; the average age for a first time home buyer is 30)
  3. Slowdown of new construction starts (we are about 5 years behind as construction slowed significantly during the downturn)
  4. Longevity (people are living longer and staying in their homes longer)
  5. Immigration and population growth (we are seeing that in spades in the San Jose area!)

All of the five factors above are true nationally.  It’s worse in Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties! Further, foreclosures are falling and nearly gone in many parts of the San Francisco Bay Area.  Add to that the major tech boom we are seeing, with huge numbers of new hires from companies like Facebook, Google, Apple…. you can see the problem compounded.   But wait, there’s more!  Also we must factor in to that the fact that many home owners are afraid to sell because they fear not being able to buy another home if they do sell.  Finally, in some areas, people still cannot afford to sell because they bought at the height of the market.  They really need to be about 10% over where they bought to be able to sell and not lose money when you factor in the very significant transactional costs.   We have what feels like an “inventory gridlock”.

When will it get better?

A few things will need to happen for the inventory to loosen up. Continue reading

Buy less than you can affordIf you are purchasing a home in a seller’s real estate market, as is the case in the San Jose area today, you may be horrified to learn that the successful bidders are those who write contracts far above list price, include few or no contingencies for loan, appraisal, and inspection, and of course take the property in “As Is” condition.

Because inventory is about half of normal, home sellers can do very few repairs and will still garner multiple offers if the home looks good, is priced attractively and marketed well.  Often there’s fresh paint and new carpets, and frequently these properties are nicely staged too.  The pre-sale home inspections – which you should read carefully prior to submitting  your contract – for property, pest, roof, chimney etc. may reveal that work is needed, such as tenting or fumigating for drywood termites, repairs in bathrooms for dry rot, plumbing, heating or roofing at the end of their usable life.

Planning to purchase a Silicon Valley home soon? In this climate, home buyers absorb the costs to make the home move in ready in most cases.  How much does that cost?  As a rough estimate, set aside about 2% of the home’s value for repairs.  In some cases it will be less, and others more.  For instance, if you set your sights on a home with a pool but plan to remove and re-landscape it, you’ll want to budget in that cost as well.

Ideally, you will be purchasing below what you can truly afford or are qualified for.  Where problems happen the most is when buyers look to the top of their range, then have to bid higher still, and finally get stuck doing repairs as well.  Aim lower at the very beginning so that you are factoring in everything which will make up the true cost to purchase – count the overbids and repairs as part of your formula.  If you qualify for a $1 million purchase, try to look at homes priced closer to $800,000.  Often those houses are selling at 10-15% over list price (more in places like Cupertino, Palo Alto and less in areas such as Blossom Valley, Morgan Hill).  If you can comfortably use this strategy, you will not be as likely to get home buyer burnout or quite so stressed with the final outcome.

  1. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,500 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,009 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 2,696 sq ft
    Lot size: 11,534 sqft
  3. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,387 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,525 sqft
  4. 5 beds, 5 baths
    Home size: 4,110 sq ft
    Lot size: 12,723 sqft
  5. 6 beds, 4 baths
    Home size: 4,088 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,161 sqft
  6. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,364 sq ft
    Lot size: 9,025 sqft
  7. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,090 sq ft
    Lot size: 8,459 sqft
  8. 2 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 1,357 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,250 sqft
  9. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,200 sq ft
    Lot size: 8,489 sqft
  10. 2 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,295 sq ft
    Lot size: 670 sqft

See all Real estate in the city of Palo Alto.
(all data current as of 7/21/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Translation

Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
Silicon Valley:
Santa Clara County,
San Mateo County, and
Santa Cruz County.
:
Special focus on:
San Jose, Los Gatos,
Saratoga, Campbell,
Almaden Valley,
Cambrian Park.
Let’s Connect
Find Mary on FacebookFollow Mary on Twitter
RSS FeedFollow Mary on YouTube

Please see more icons
at the bottom of the page.

The real estate search
Use the widget below to browse properties which are for sale, under contract (pending) or sold. Want to view only homes which are available now? Use the "find a home" link on the menu above (next to the "home" button).
Mary’s other sites & blogs
Valley Of Hearts Delight
Santa Clara County Real Estate,
with an interest in history

Move2SiliconValley.com
Silicon Valley relocation info

popehandy.com
Silicon Valley real estate,
focus on home selling

Silicon Valley Real Estate Report
Silicon Valley real estate
market trends & statistics
Mary’s Blog Awards
Top 25 real estate blogs of 2018 by RentPrep2018 RentPrep.com's list of top 25 real estate blogs to follow


Top 25 real estate blogs 2016
2016: Personal Income's list of top 25 real estate blogs.


Best Realtor blog award
2016: Coastal Group OC's list of best Realtor blogs


The 2009 Sellsius list of top 12 women real estate bloggers
2009: Sellsius list of top
12 women real estate bloggers


Mary Pope-Handy's Live in Los Gatos blog won the 2007 Project Blogger contest, sponsored by Inman News and Active Rain

2007: Mary Pope-Handy and Frances Flynn Thorsen win the Project Blogger Contest for Mary's Live in Los Gatos blog. The contest was sponsored by
Active Rain and Inman News.


Non blog award


Best real estate agent in Silicon Valley from the San Jose Mercury News poll of readers in 2011
"Best real estate agent
in Silicon Valley"

2011 readers' poll,
San Jose Mercury News

Categories