How is the Saratoga real estate market? One barometer is the amount of inventory, that is the number of homes for sale. Today we’ll take a look at that, both in terms of “what’s normal” and what’s been happening in the recent past and now for Saratoga houses on the market.

First, here are the typical patterns over the last five years. As you can see, inventory is normally at its lowest point in winter, and highest point in summer. Usually inventory continues to rise from January through June or July, sometimes August, before falling again.

If we simply look at the last 12 months of Saratoga homes for sale, we’ll really appreciate how different the market was then vs now.

Is this much different from last year? Inventory of Saratoga houses for sale now versus one year ago:
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With the massive housing correction, we saw a rise in real estate inventory which has now begun to subside, and we saw a wave of short sales and bank owned properties begin to roll through Santa Clara County.  In the “West Valley” communities of Los Gatos, Saratoga, Campbell and Cambrian Park, we have seen the impact of this to varying degrees.

Today I pulled the numbers for these four areas of Silicon Valley to see this history of inventory and pending sales over the last six years to get a year-over-year view of the market.  (Status 1 = homes available, Status 2 = homes under contract with a seller’s contingency, they might be available, Status 3 = sale pending with normal contingencies on the buyer’s side for inspections, financing, and/or appraisal, and Status 4 = all contingencies have been removed.)

What do these numbers reveal to us?
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This week one of my buyers asked me about the inventory levels in Santa Clara County (San Jose, specificially) and wondered if they’re lower than usual.  I get this question a lot lately so wanted to present the numbers to the readers of this Valley of Hearts Delight Blog. 

How low is the inventory? It’s way off from last year in most parts of the west valley. But remember, last year was unusual.  (Below are the numbers for single family homes, or houses.)

How much is this year’s inventory off from the average of the last 6 years?

Almaden: down appx 10%
Cambrian: down appx 18%
Campbell: down appx 20%
Los Gatos: up appx 6%
Saratoga: up appx 38%

Once again, “easy answers” allude us. 

If we were to push this further, we’d find that certain price points (or bands or strata) in the market are way above or below the typical numbers.  It is very hard to generalize accurately.  Anecdotally, though, it seems as though there’s very little on the market as far as my buyers are concerned (and right now, my buyers are looking at properties in Santa Clara County ranging from the 400s to between 1 and 2 million). 

For information on your particular situation, please contact me.

The Monte Sereno real estate market tends to be a good indicator of the high end market throughout Siicon Valley or Santa Clara County. While it may not be exactly the same in Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Almaden or Saratoga/Los Gatos, it’s often very similar.

Homes at the high end of the price range have taken a beating in the downturn, as would-be buyers – mostly “move up” home buyers – haven’t got enough equity to purchase the next home.  Many are running into problems getting financing too. So without a large amount of money to put down, it’s very difficult for even willing buyers to make the purchase.

Prices have been dropping in Monte Sereno, as they have been dropping everywhere in the San Jose area.  Although we aren’t seeing the deep discounting here that we see in Alum Rock (where most of the houses bought are distressed properties, either short sales or bank owned homes), the rollback in pricing is still painful for home sellers, especially if they were counting on that money for retirement.

Let’s first look at the recent historical data on list prices in Monte Sereno (graphs courtesy of Altos Research, with which I have a subscription). First here’s a view of the median list price of all houses offered for sale in Monte Sereno in recent years:

Now, the asking prices in Monte Sereno in recent years broken out by quartile (each segment is 25% of the inventory):

The highest priced homes have shown the most volatility, as you can see by the swings in the top line.  That could be a statistical abberation since each quartile represents very, very few homes.
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How is the real estate market doing in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? We can look at a few key indicators (median list price, average days on market, and inventory levels) to get a pulse on the current market in the San Jose, 95120, area. Graphs below are from Altos Research; I am a subscriber so may present these to you here. Data used is list pricing. (To see the most recent reports using closed Almaden sales numbers from November, please view my Almaden Valley Real Estate Report, which is from another provider and is another of my subscriptions to get the best data possible for my clients and readers.)

From the solds last month and in prior months, we know that overall, the Almaden real estate market has been deepening in the buyer’s favor. Prices have been slipping, days on the market are lengthening, and list price to sale price ratios have wavered a bit.

Median List Price for Almaden Valley Homes

The graph above reflects the list prices of real estate in Almaden Valley, which is an upscale district on the southestern side of the city of San Jose. Interestingly, while the list prices of single family homes is declining, the list prices of condos and townhomes has performed almost the opposite in the last twelve months and now appears to be level.

Among houses, is it any different from one price point to another?
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