Every couple of weeks I update this post to bring fresh news and data on the Cambrian Park real estate market. On Dec 9th  I went onto the MLS and ran the “months of inventory” or absorption rate of houses and duet homes (what our MLS calls “class 1″)  in “area 14″ or Cambrian area of San Jose. This time I broke it down into price points as well as the type of sale (regular, short sale, bank owned)  so you can pinpoint the pricing for the various segments of the Cambrian market. (Reminder: months of inventory reflects how long it will take to sell a property if sales continue at the current rate. Six months or so is considered “balanced”. More is a buyer’s market and less is a seller’s.)

**please note – typo below – numbers were crunched December 9th, 2011, not December 10th.

Cambrian Park (San Jose) Months of Inventory by sale type & price point Dec 9, 2011

What’s selling? “Regular sales” – non distressed. Not faring so well? Short sales.  In many price points, although many are under contract or pending, FEW – sometimes none – are making it to the closing table.  We are hearing a lot about the streamlined processes for short sales, but these numbers hint at a different reality, namely that Silicon Valley and Cambrian short sales sell but often don’t close escrow.

What is the typical kind of home and price for these neighborhoods?  Of the homes which transferred ownership in the last 30 days, a typical house cost about $600,000, has about 1600 square feet and sits on a lot of around 6700 square feet (and is “partially updated”, not fully remodeled).  The price per square foot averaged $376 but ran from $205 (distressed and on a hugely busy road) to $513 (close to the hills near Almaden and Los Gatos).  If the home you want to buy or sell needs remodeling or is “all original” it’s probably going to sell for less. If it’s in a great area, is a regular sale and absolutely turnkey and fully remodeled, it’ll sell for more.  A beautifully remodeled Cambrian house with 3 bed, 2 bath and 1200 square feet can easily run $600,000 or more if it’s a regular sale and in a good area with no “issues” (high voltage lines, backing to busy road or school etc.).

What about the pending sales?

As of this morning, there are 95 houses & duet homes which are sale pending.  Of those, 39 are regular sales (a mere 41%!), 48 are short sales and 8 are bank owned properties (REOs).  How do the pendings compare to the homes sold?  Here’s a quick breakdown for all price ranges in “area 14″ of San Jose:

ALL types Pending – 95   Sold in last 30 days – 37
Regular sales – 39   Sold in last 30 days – 32
Short sales -  48   Sold in last 30 days – 1
Bank owned sales – 8   Sold in last 30 days – 2

This underlines the fact that the short sales are getting into contract…but just not getting to the closing table! Bank owned homes are better, but the ratio of pendings to closings is much, much better with regular sales.  This explains why the regular sales are the hottest ticket in Cambrian Park right now: buyers don’t want to just buy, they want to close!

Some sellers are borderline on being able to sell without either having to bring cash to the closing table or having to attempt a short sale.  What do these numbers suggest?  That if you really want to sell and can do it – you may be best off doing a regular sale, even if you need to bring money to the title company to make it work.   (This is general advice only, your own situation may be different – please consult with your Realtor, lawyer and tax advisor before deciding to do, or not to do, a short sale.)

Here’s a snapshot view what was happening in the 95124 and 95118 areas of San Jose as of December 2nd, 2011. (My last update for this part of San Jose -  a mini update.)

Cambrian Park (San Jose) quick real estate stats for houses Dec 2, 2011

Interestingly, the hottest segment of this market is not the distressed sales, but regular ones, which are being absorbed three times as fast as the short sales or bank owned homes on the market. And it’s understandable: REOs don’t provide any disclosures and may contain surprises after close of escrow, and short sales may never close.  Just look at the huge number of pendings as opposed to the short sales which actually become a finalized transaction!  We hear that the odds are improving on short sales closing, but this graph doesn’t validate that impression at all.

Cambrian San Jose Real Estate Trends & Statistics for Sold Homes

It’s been a “hot sellers market” in the Cambrian district of San Jose for many months now with most homes that sell going fairly close to list price (1-2% off on average).  That doesn’t mean that the best idea is to always offer less than list price, though, as many homes are selling at or above list price.

If we took a close look at what’s selling and closed recently, we would find that some Cambrian houses are selling for more than list price, some right at list price and others below or well under the offered price.  Some Cambrian real estate is listed strategically low in order to get multiple offers and drive the price up.  Some are overpriced and others are priced “right on the money”.

Data on real estate solds in Cambrian area of San Jose, for November, October, September and August 2011 among houses from my Real Estate Report:

Next, October:

September:

Next, August (note that prices were higher, pending prices were higher in August as opposed to September).

Inventory is down about 32% from a year ago.  Prices are down, too, both year over year and month over month. Even so, the Cambrian real estate market is fairly hot, a good strong seller’s market as long as homes are priced well, staged well, and marketed well.  That doesn’t mean that every home is selling, but those which are nicely staged and marketed and correctly priced are selling at a good pace – and many of them get multiple offers, as the overbids attest.

Just now I checked what has closed in the Cambrian area in the last 30 days. There were 36 houses that closed. Of them 9 sold over list price, a few sold right at list price but most sold under list (and a very few sold grossly lower).

Now let’s work with Altos Research’s graphs and get a feel for the Cambrian realty market in “real time”.  These use list prices, whereas my REReport uses sold data.

First, the statistics by quartile for houses in San Jose 95118:

Next, the stats and trends by price quartile for houses in San Jose 95124:

Median list price of homes for sale in 95124 and 95118:

Very interesting that the 95124 pricing appears to be swinging upward while the 95118 pricing continues to go down.  I believe that this is mainly because the schools in 95124 have been trending upward strongly with the API scores.  Prices are also at a higher level, and those are less impacted by short sales and REOs countywide.  So it may be the result of multiple factors.  (95124 is about 2/3 of the Cambrian real estate market.)

Inventory in Cambrian area of San Jose 95124, 95118:

Surprising, isn’t it, to see how differently these two San Jose zip codes are behaving from each other?

Average days on Market in San Jose’s Cambrian area

And again, really different trends on these neighboring zips, both in Cambrian!

Another anecdotal story to share: Recently I closed the sale on my listing at 5114 Nerissa Way in Cambrian with Union Schools and Alta Vista in particular. We were listed at $579,000 and received 4 offers and sold at $585,000. Interestingly, we received 2 nearly identical “best” offers, both at $585,000. One was completely As Is and the other was almost As Is (they wanted a fumigation and pest clearance provided).  That is usually a pretty good affirmation of market value, and the property did appraise at the sales price.  The other two offers we got were below list price.  One was all cash and it was extremely low.  Buyers who are purchasing without financing sometimes misunderstand the type of discount that their all-cash status will get for them, so sometimes the worst offers are all cash and that was the case this time.

Want more info on your neighborhood, your house, or your target home to buy? Please call me!

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 61. See more 95124 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $685,000 : 1671 Zinnia Ln, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,410 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,240 sq ft
   
2. $549,900 : 2423 Loment Pl, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,539 sq ft

   Lot size: 4,232 sq ft
   
3. $639,000 : 1695 Merrill Dr, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,396 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,200 sq ft
   
4. $748,000 : 1830 Curtner Av, San Jose
   
   5 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,191 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,000 sq ft
   
5. $574,980 : 5003 Phileo Ct, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,644 sq ft

   Lot size: 2,854 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 29. See more 95118 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

1. $829,000 : 5530 Le Franc Dr,
   
   4 beds, 3 full baths

   Home size: 2,020 sq ft

   Lot size: 3,356 sq ft
   
2. $575,000 : 3213 Gardendale Dr, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,800 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,313 sq ft
   
3. $489,900 : 1349 Lyonsville Ln, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,692 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,583 sq ft
   
4. $499,000 : 3119 Santa Margarita Av, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 1,071 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,840 sq ft
   
5. $430,000 : 1560 Hillsdale Av, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,654 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,890 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse lists of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale:
Houses for sale in the 95118 part of Cambrian
Cambrian Park Houses for Sale in 95124

Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley”
408 204-7673 (Cell)
emailto: Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com & www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com

How’s the Los Gatos real estate market? Generally speaking, it is a seller’s market overall in the 95030 and 95032 zip code areas (in town).  That said, remember that it can vary a lot between price points and school districts, let alone neighborhood, sale type (regular vs distressed).  Real estate is always local!

Today we’ll look at the LG market both with a view to the sold data we have as well as the current listings activity.  We’ll view the “in town” areas and also the mountain areas. First addressed will be the market as seen by the “sold data” – houses, then condominiums & townhouse.  (Long post but loads of info!)

Los Gatos & Los Gatos Mountain Housing Market Trends

I. Sold listings data for Los Gatos houses

Houses in Los Gatos & Los Gatos Mountains – housing trends using sold data

(1)  In town

First, housing trends “in town”, utilizing my Real Estate Report, which comes out monthly (and includes all of Santa Clara County):

Below is the summary of market trends in Los Gatos for the most current month, January 2011 (using sold data):

(2) Los Gatos Mountains

The Los Gatos Mountain communities (zip code 95033) usually have a slower market (harder to sell homes, even in “hot” years -compare 2007 for in town and in the mountains). December was improved, though, interestingly.

January’s sales/solds data:

II. Active Listings Data for Los Gatos houses for sale

Next, we’ll see how the market is faring as we make use of the Altos Research tools, which use list prices (not solds).

Houses and Duet Homes – median list price by Los Gatos zip code (including the mountains):

Right now, prices are softest in the Los Gatos Mountains (95033) and strongest in 95032, which is part “Los Gatos Schools” and part Moreland and Union Schools.

Los Gatos, 95030 list prices by quartile over last year for houses (and duet homes) – houses for sale grouped by price point:

Los Gatos, 95032 list prices by quartile for houses on the market.

It is interesting that the “high end” in 95032 seems to be recovering so well. (Some of it’s in the Los Gatos School District and some not.)

And 95033 list prices by quartile for houses:

Pricing of homes for sale dating back to 2005 – an historical perspective of list prices (single family homes/houses):

Los Gatos Condo & Townhouse Market in Los Gatos

As you can see, the Los Gatos condo market has generally had it tough since late 2007, but prior to that it was “much hotter” of a market than houses in the same areas.

Los Gatos list price by Los Gatos zip code (no condos in the mountain area of 95033):

Inventory of houses for sale in Los Gatos – sliding in all areas:

Condo inventory in Los Gatos – also decreasing, which is somewhat “annual”:

Let’s compare the Los Gatos condo/townhome market to the market for houses for sale – first the average Days on Market (DOM) of houses for sale in Los Gatos, then below that the same info but for condos.

And average DOM of condos and townhomes for sale in Los Gatos:

Much higher in 95030, the more expensive of the two areas!

What about distressed sales in Los Gatos? Are there many short sales or bank owned homes, and if so, are they hurting the realty market?

There really aren’t a lot of short sales or REOs on the market at the moment: for houses in town, 95% are “regular sales”.  For condos in town, the percentage is 63%.  In the Los Gatos Mountains 81% are regular sales.

Last year there was a cluster of short sales in the Loma Vista/El Gato area and that did disrupt market values in that area/school district/price point quite substantially.   Overall, though, it is not a major player in market value right now.

How is the residential real estate market doing in the Cambrian Park area of San Jose, CA?  We’ll have a look at the 95124 zip code area and the 95118 zip code area of San Jose, which together comprise at least 95% of the Cambrian Park real estate area of Silicon Valley. (A small sliver belongs to the predominently Campbell area of 95008.) The following charts, from Altos Research, represent list prices (not sold prices).

Although the condos in 95124 (green line) have not fared too badly in the last year, the vast majority of Cambrian Park real estate seems to be hurting. The median list price on these homes has been slipping fairly steadily over the last year – often at least 10% of value. This is the broad overview. Next we will view things on more of a micro level.

Next, we’ll view Cambrian in smaller segments, broken down by both zip code and quartile. First, let’s take a look at the 95124 zip code, starting with the single family home real estate market:

Interestingly, most of the houses in Cambrian had a similar downward trend (the lowest price points exhibiting the strongest tendency that way), but the highest price houses seem to be at about the same level as they were a year ago, if not priced a tad higher.  This chart suggests that the lowest priced homes have been hardest hit by the current economic crisis.

And next, condos in the same part of San Jose:

Among 95124 condos, the highest and lowest priced homes had the roughest time, whereas the two middle quartiles are almost on par with where they were a year ago.

And for the smaller part of Cambrian Park, the 95118 area, the same criteria:

The 95118 zip code of San Jose, which is about 1/3 of the Cambrian Park district, mostly has the San Jose Unified School District, which is not considered quite as desireable as Cambrian and Union Schools. In this area, prices have slipped dramatically among single family homes.

And condominiums and townhomes in 95118:

It is interesting to see that among the condominium and townhouse market for the 951118 part of San Jose, the patterns among the four quartiles are extremely simiar overall for the major dip in the market. The highest priced condos, though, appear more impervious to the market pressures, and the lowest priced homes have taken the worst hit.

Overall, Cambrian is a good mirror for the rest of the San Jose real estate market and even the Silicon Valley real estate market. Here, as in the rest of Santa Clara County, the higher priced homes have not been so badly hit on pricing. Schools appear to be a huge impact on whether a property will better retain its value or not.

This is all very broad information. For more specific info relating to your particular needs, please call or email me today!

Are you interested in, or thinking of, buying a home in Los Gatos? If so, there’s a Los Gatos homebuyer “start kit” page full of information targeted directly at the needs of Los Gatos homebuyers. Whether you want to browse houses, condos, or neighborhoods, you’ll find tools to help you begin your homebuying journey there. It is a launch pad for loads of information, including:

• Los Gatos homes for sale – view by map
• Los Gatos homes for sale – broken down by price point
• Los Gatos real estate market reports
• Los Gatos home sales prices by map
• Information on Los Gatos neighborhoods, subdivisions and areas
• Information on Los Gatos schools
• Photos of Los Gatos
• Information on Los Gatos history, architecture, parks, and more

Please stop by and bookmark this site. It’s a very helpful “starting point” for buying a home in Los Gatos.

How’s the real estate market in Santa Clara, California? In a nutshell, it’s doing much better than the majority of Santa Clara County or Silicon Valley. Let’s look at the absorption rate first, which is the rate at which the current inventory would sell off if no new homes were to come on the market and properties would continue selling at the current rate. The National Association of Realtors says that 6 months or less of inventory is a sellers market whereas more than 6 months reflects a buyers lunch.

As you can see on the absorption rate chart above, the condo market has had its ups and downs, faring better than the single family market five months of the nine so far this year, but faring far, far worse on the others.

Next let’s track the data for Santa Clara’s houses, and afterwards, condos and townhomes.

Real Estate Statistics for Single Family Homes in Santa Clara, CA

Things seem to be improving. It will be good to keep an eye on this market to see if this month was just a blip or if the market is truly on its way back up.

Real Estate Statistics for Condominiums and Townhouses in Santa Clara, CA

Prices seem to be on their way up and inventory is up from last month but down from last year, and days on the market are down too. The Santa Clara condo market appears to be improving so this is definitely something to watch. Buyers, this may be a great time to buy a condo in Santa Clara!

 Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, RECS, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley”
Keller Williams, Cupertino, CA (Silicon Valley)
877 397-5391 (Direct/Toll-Free/Fax); 408 204-7673 (Cell)
www.PopeHandy.com & www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com
emailto: Mary@PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com & www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com

The months of inventory, or absorption rate, in Saratoga reveals that the market is not too unhealthy in this upscale community. While much of the valley is struggling with long months of inventory, the condo and townhome market and single family home market in Saratoga are both under 6 months. The National Association of Realtors says that less than 6 months of inventory constitutes a sellers market, and more than 6 months a buyers market.

That said, the condo market is inching upwards, and so is the single family home market. Will the impact of the morgage meltdown be felt in this corner of Silicon Valley?

Next, please view some of the key data on Saratoga CA single family homes (these charts from the Real Estate Report, a subscription I have):

And the same information for the condo and townhouse market in Saratoga:

The market is close to balanced in Saratoga, so it’s a very decent time to either buy or sell there now. If you’d like information on buying or selling a home in Saratoga, please contact me!

Do you like to keep a pulse on the Silicon Valley real estate market? If the west valley communities interest you especially, please sign up to automatically receive (at no cost) a report by zip code for the communities of Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Campbell, and parts of San Jose close to them: Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, and Willow Glen.

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