How is the Campbell condo and townhouse market?  The answer may well depend on both what part of that market we’re discussing and which data we’re focusing on.

The absorption rate, or months of inventory, indicates that it’s a seller’s market:

The hottest segment is the bank owned or REO part of the Campbell condominium or townhouse realty market, and the slowest segment is the short sale section (which is about 20% of the available inventory). That’s very typical of other nearby areas: the hardest homes to sell are the short sales.  As a side note: there are 39 condos available and 29 which are sale pending. That is a high ratio, which also points to a seller’s market.

How does this compare to a year ago?  It’s completely different!

A year ago, the months of inventory was a whopping 72% higher at 8.8 for May 2009 vs 2.5 for May 2010. Solds are up 42% from 12 months ago.  Pending sales are up 200% from a year ago also.  So from every vantage, it’s much, much better than a year ago.

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In Almaden Valley, like in other parts of San Jose and Silicon Valley, some parts of “the market” are hotter than  others.  The real estate sweet spot appears to be homes priced in either the entry level or move-up markets – but things cool considerably as the homes become more elegant, grand and luxurious.  (This appears to be true across all of Santa Clara County: the most affordable homes are still the hottest segment of the realty market.)

Months of Inventory in Almaden Valley

Here’s how the current inventory and sales breaks down, together with the months of inventory, for the Almaden Valley part of San Jose (95120 zip code). Info from MLS Listings deemed accurate but not guaranteed. The “closed” column represents homes closed (houses & duet homes) in the last month.

As you can see, up to about $1,200,000 it’s a very strong seller’s market with less than 2 months of inventory. But beyond that price point, it’s suddenly a completely different market and is instead a very strong buyer’s market.

What about distressed property sales in Almaden?

There are almost no bank owned properties currently for sale or recently closed in Almaden – just 1 in the entry level price band which is currently listed for sale.

There are not many short sales in Almaden: right now just 5 for sale: 3 in the lowest of these five price groups, 1 in the 2nd lowest and one in the highest. Closings among short sales are also few in number: 2 in the lowest price point and one in the second lowest.  The absorption rate or months of inventory among short sales was 1.5 in the lowest price point and 1 month in the second lowest. No closings among higher priced homes that were also short sales in the last month.
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The condominium & townhouse market is improving dramatically now.  It is evident both in looking at the stats countywide and in my recent experiences holding open my townhouse listings in Saratoga and Sunnyvale as well as recently participating in the sale of a townhome in Almaden Valley (representing a buyer) – all different areas and price points but all very active.

Here are the numbers for May sales of condos and townhomes for all of Santa Clara  County:

As you can see, the days on market are shrinking and prices (both median and average) are rising.  A few numbers cut back slightly in May: the sale to list price ratio retreated a little to 99.9% and the pending properties went down a little too.  But the number of sales were up.

The “months of inventory” or absorption rate is a great way to know how much of a buyer’s or seller’s market it is in any given place. Six months is considered balanced, less is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market.  Here are the months of inventory for selected communities in the “west valley” area of Silicon Valley – they are all “seller’s markets”, but some are strong and some are approaching balanced:

Of course, this is still painting with a broad brush.  The absorption rate for any of these areas may not be accurate for the various price points or school districts that might be found there.  For instance, a large luxury townhouse in Los Gatos which is downtown might be a really different type of market than a small, entry level one bordering Campbell or Cambrian Park.

What everyone’s wondering is if this seller’s market for condominiums and townhouses will continue despite the end of the federal home buyer credit.  To utilize that credit, homes had to be in contract by April 30th.  Most of those should be closed now, or nearing that date at best.  So we’ll really know more as we move into summer. My sense, though, is that what’s driving this market is much more the affordable prices of homes and of loans. The credits are a bonus, but many in Silicon Valley make too much money to be able to use them.

For information on your particular part of the Silicon Valley condo or townhome market, please give me a call or email me!

Beautiful Willow Glen is one of San Jose’s many districts, but it once was a separate town until less than a hundred years ago, when the need for a better sewage system nudged the townfolk to vote in favor of annexation to San Jose.  It maintains a strong & independent identity.

To speak of “the Willow Glen real estate market” is to try to include divergent neighborhoods, school districts, architecture, price points and locations. Below please find a general overview of the market for Willow Glen houses & duet homes as of March 20, 2010. (Numbers from MLSListings.com, crunched by Mary Pope-Handy. Homes listed as “sold” were closed within the last 30 days – as of today.)

The months of inventory indicates that it is a seller’s market in Willow Glen (less than 6 months is the tipping point) overall.  Please note that there’s some variation, though, from one school district to the next.  You’ll also find variation between price points, whether or not the home is distressed, etc.

Schools:  most of Willow Glen belongs to the San Jose Unified School District.  A small section of Willow Glen is a part of the Campbell Union High School District.  (CUHSD has pretty good schools so this area is often prized for that reason.) And a tiny little sliver actually belongs to the East Side Union High School District – very few homes fall into this section so it’s not addressed specifically.

Areas: Willow Glen has many neighborhoods within it, ranging from Palm Haven and north Willow Glen to the Birdlands and the Willows at another and many others inbetween.  There are some areas more prized than others, of course.  Being close to the downtown area (and away from freeways, for instance) can dramatically increase the sales price and marketability of the home.   Certain neighborhoods have more charming architecture, larger trees along the street, wider roads or other plusses that drive their value up.

Price points and selling conditions:  In addition to these factors, we also must consider the price point of the home as well as whether a home is being sold without undue pressure or if it is a distressed sale, that is, a bank owned or short sale.  Regular sales usually sell for more (and buyers know that normally they will be given both disclosures and presale inspections prior to drafting their purchase offer).

In most of Silicon Valley, the “hottest” segment of the market is the most affordable.  For a closer look at this subset of the San Jose real estate market, I have broken it down into major groups, the first one being homes priced below $729,000 (which is close to the “conforming jumbo” loan cutoff).  Below, please notice that there is a significant difference between the months of inventory from one school district to the next as well as one sale type to the next.  In Willow Glen right now, the sweet spot of the market are homes priced under $729,000 and located in the Campbell Union High School District (not San Jose Unified). 

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The Los Gatos real estate market appears to remain a ” buyer’s market”, but it entirely depends on which part of the Los Gatos market you’re discussing.

This post will cover:

• single family homes (99% houses, but a few duet homes)
• 95030 and 95032 zip codes
• Two high school districts:
  • Los Gatos Saratoga High School District (meaning Los Gatos High School)
  • Campbell Union High School District (meaning Westmont or Leigh High Schools)
• varying price points in all of the above

General comments:
Most of 95030 is in the Los Gatos Saratoga High School District, but there is a very, very tiny portion of it which belongs to the Campbell Union High School District.  The percentage is so small as to be statistically insignificant, but I wanted to mention it here for the sake of accuracy and I will include it below.  The numbers below are from our MLS provider, MLSListings.com, with the numbers crunched by me, Mary Pope-Handy.  While I have made every effort to be 100% accurate, I do not guarantee it (don’t sure me if there’s a typo or other error!).

Overview of the basic numbers and months of inventory for the housing market in the town of Los Gatos overall  - homes for sale, pending sales, and closed sales within the last month:

It appears to be a buyer’s market, which is true for much of the town, but not all of it.  There is variation to a phenomenal degree depending on price point, zip code, and school district.  Below we’ll look at all of it and see market conditions for each segment.
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The following post was written in May 2009. For a more current update, please see the June 2010 post, 
The Condo and Townhouse Market Update in the West Valley for June 2010

March 11, 2009

The real estate market for condominiums and townhomes in the west valley area of Silicon Valley is similar to the rest of Santa Clara County in one main regard: the most expensive homes are having far more trouble selling than entry level homes.

Today we’ll look at the months of inventory for condos and townhomes in four areas of the west valley: Almaden Valley, Cupertino, Los Gatos and Saratoga.  Since this is a fairly small subset of the overall residential real estate market, I’ve also looked at them as a group (upscale areas with good to great schools near the  foothills) and wanted to see the overall trend when the four neighborhoods were viewed together.

As a reminder, under 6 months is a seller’s market, 6 is neutral and 7 or more is a buyer’s market.

Interestingly, the overall trend of these four areas combined shows consistent improvement in the market toward neutral, from 23.5 months in January to 8.6 months in April.  It’s really very dramatic when viewed as a whole!

Cupertino area condos are faring well in the last 30 days with more closed escrows and just 8 months of inventory. Los Gatos is even better now with 6 months of inventory.

The market is much tougher in Saratoga, CA, where almost no condominiums or townhouses are selling.  Those that do go under contract are in the lowest price ranges.  Many properties are “just sitting”.  Buyers are waiting for prices to drop.  Nearly as tough is the condo market in Almaden Valley.

The challenge for luxury condo owners is that buyers now are primarily buying either for shelter or for investment.  Investment buyers seldom purchase a luxury item (it’s safer to buy two small condos than one large one to hedge against vacancy).

For many condo sellers, now may just not be the right time to sell. On the other hand, if you’re moving up, now may be the ideal time since prices in the higher priced homes are fairly soft compared to “normal”.

We may be in a recession with 11% local unemployment, but affordable homes are getting scooped up with multiple offers and in many areas, inventory is shrinking.

Today we’ll look at five areas of San Jose which offer at least some, if not mostly, entry level housing: Blossom Valley, Cambrian Park, Evergreen, Santa Teresa and South San Jose.

Evergreen does have some high-end housing in Silver Creek and elsewhere, but it also provides some very affordable homes for first time home buyers.  Cambrian Park is mostly middle class but it, too, has some McMansions (original Cambrian Park tract with large lots and very old homes that are not infrequently bulldozed) and some homes with views (Vista Loop area, bordering Los Gatos and Almaden Valley).  Blossom Valley has some beautiful properties and many close to thecenics Santa Teresa Foothills.  Overall, though, these homes represent affordable or mid-range houses for sale in Silicon Valley.  When we look at them as a group, it gives a strong sense of what the market is doing generally.

The months of inventory reflect how long it would take the current inventory to be absorbed (or sold off) if no new inventory came on the market and sales continued at the current pace.  Six months is a balanced market.  Fewer represents a seller’s market and more reflects a buyer’s market.  As you can see, April shows a push in all five districts of San Jose into seller’s territory:

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