Today I was chatting with my lender friend, Shashank Shekhar, who’s also a very active blogger and social media maven. We discussed a variety of topics, including how to price a home for sale and establishing the real estate market value of Silicon Valley homes.

Sometimes it can be tricky to estimate what a home might sell for or its market value.  I usually talk with my seller clients about trying to find the probable buyer’s value.  The seller may have a range of prices that he or she anticipates and would accept.  So too with the buyer, whose range will likely be lower than the seller’s.  The key is finding where the buyer and seller price ranges overlap. If it’s unlikely that their ranges overlap at all, we’ll have a listing that is difficult or impossible to sell.

Let’s take a hypothetical case of a home worth about a million dollars (see image above). The seller would love for the property to sell close to $1,040,000.  The buyer would like to purchase it for $960,000.  The agent’s competitive market analysis indicates that similar homes have sold or are selling at around a million dollars, give or take a percent or two.  If the buyer and seller can come to a meeting of the minds, and there’s no undue pressure on either one of them, we have (hopefully) a sale and we have market value.

But as we know, sometimes homes sell for much more than they would seem to be worth, and other times much less.

What causes property values to go above or below what would seem to be the probable value?  Undue pressure can certainly cause values to rise (desperate buyer who just has to get into a house, even if overpaying or desperate seller who has got to unload a property, even if selling too low).
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The Campbell real estate market appears to be “past the bottom”, as is the case with much of the Silicon Valley housing market. In some parts of San Jose, “the bottom” was in February or March of this year.  Campbell may have hit that point sooner – but in any event it is now heading back toward a balanced market (30 is the balance point for this formula). (Images and charts from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and permission to use these, as well as the RE Report, another subscription service of mine. Altos uses list prices, the RE Report uses sold data as well as list prices.)

Let’s look at the data for October in Campbell – actives, pendings, and closeds (care of the RE Report).

While in many parts of the greater San Jose area the Days on Market (DOM) are lengthening, they are shortening in Campbell! Sales are up, but prices are still declining a bit (in several areas of Santa Clara County, prices are again inching up – this tends to happen in less expensive areas).  Pending sales are up and inventory is down.  So there are some mixed indicators but Campbell appears to be at or near “the bottom”.
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It is a strong seller’s market in the Alum Rock area of San Jose right now: inventory is shrinking and prices are rising after hitting bottom a few months ago. Prices are still way off year over year, but for the last 4 months or so, prices have been rising in this part of Silicon Valley, and it’s quite dramatic.

As of a few days ago in this area of San Jose, there were 203 single family homes for sale and there were 114 that sold/closed in the last month. To get the “months of inventory” or absorption rate we just divide the 203 by the 114 and we get about 1.8 months of inventory, which makes it a very strong sellers market. 

(Because it’s so affordable, first time homebuyers are flocking to Alum Rock in droves. Unfortunately, they are sometimes outbid by all-cash investors and left frustrated as homes get multiple offers and prices skyrocket out of reach.)

The absorption rate can be measured in days, weeks, months (or years) of inventory.  Below is a chart reflecting the days of inventory relative to the last 18 months or so.  As you can see, the absorption rate has been shrinking very, very dramatically (as prices have fallen through the floor).

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Home sellers want to get as much as possible for their homes. Home buyers want to get their homes for the least amount possible.  “Market value” is when buyers and sellers agree – even if one of them is a little reluctant. This is true universally, whether you’re in the market in San Jose, Saratoga, Los Gatos or anywhere in Silicon Valley (and just as true elsewhere in California or elsewhere in the world).

Real estate agents don’t control the value of the home. However, good agents can maximize the potential of the market. Homes are never worth just one set price. There’s usually a range within which terms (or conditions) can move the value up or down. It’s “price and terms”.

For instance, let’s say you have an upscale home that’s worth about 1.5 million, more or less. If an offer were to come in contingent upon the sale of another home, in a normal or balanced market, the seller would probably want more than the 1.5 because of the uncertainty. Perhaps that home would sell, if contingent, for 1.6 million (only for illustration). On the other hand, if an all-cash buyer showed up, could close in 5 days (I have seen it happen) and allowed a free rentback for a month, the home might sell for closer to 1.4 million – if the seller really needed a fast close to prevent foreclosure or to secure the deal on another home. It’s always about price and terms.

Want a good deal on price? Sweeten the terms.

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