San Jose is the largest city in Santa Clara County (or Silicon Valley) with about one million residents.  The districts or areas within San Jose vary tremendously in many ways, including their respective real estate markets.

Today we’ll have a comparative look at the median list prices in the housing market in three areas & zip codes of San Jose: Almaden Valley (95120), Cambrian Park (95124) and Willow Glen (95125).  First, how these three areas line up against each other and against San Jose as a whole in terms of the median list prices of homes for sale in the last year.

Please note: the charts below are “live” html and the commentary is appropriate as of today, July 30, 2010.  The charts will continue to change and be updated,though, so it’s possible that a year from now the commentary may seem disjointed.  Now you’ll know why!

First, a glance at Almaden, Willow Glen, Cambrian and San Jose genererally.  Overall, it looks like the higher priced homes are having the most trouble.  A closer look, though, shows that although Almaden is pricier than Willow Glen, Willow Glen’s median list price has gone down far more than Almaden’s.  My guess is that the school districts are having a large influence here – the schools in Almaden range from good to great, whereas in Willow Glen most of the zip code has only average schools.

San Jose as a whole, by price quartile is next.

The lowest priced homes have been inching up over the year. The second price point from the bottom seems to be about even with a year ago, the second from the top is down and the most expensive homes are down by about 5%.

Next, let’s focus on the Almaden Valley area of town by price quartile also:

What a change from San Jose as a whole – all of these price points are down from a year ago. (Buyers, take note: it’s easier to buy a home when you see these conditions.)  The price points are high, so Almaden is behaving like other more expensive areas of San Jose.  Next, Cambrian Park…
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Pricing is the most important element of “marketing a home for sale” that sellers and their agents do and over-pricing is the #1 reason why some homes don’t sell.  Here’s a quick list of the most common pricing errors which Silicon Valley home sellers should avoid because they often lead to overpricing:

1. Selecting the list price of the home based on what you want or need rather than on what the market will bear (the “probable buyer’s value” of your home).
2. Using dissimilar “comps”.   The best comparable properties will be within a mile  of the subject property, within 10% of the home’s size and 10% of your lot’s size,  in the same school district and ideally in similar condition and very recently sold.
3. Hiring an agent who tells you an inflated price and then using that number. Look at the numbers yourself.  A better practice is to first select the best Realtor and then arrive at a pricing strategy together. Many agents are pressured by homeowners to tell the owner what he or she wants to hear.  This is truly counter-productive! 
4. Not factoring in negative issues which could impact your home’s value, such as proximity to busy roads, high voltage power lines, the look of nearby homes and yards, non-permitted work or additions, etc. Ignoring it – or believing that buyers will – means you will be perpetually too high in your assessment of your home’s value.
5. Failing to include the current competition in your assessment of your real estate’s value.  Are there a lot of homes like yours on the market? Are they just not selling? If so, the buyers are telling you that the whole lot is overpriced!  Are there lots of short sales and bank owned homes selling nearby? Unfortunately, those are going to pull your home’s value down, so those need to be included in your assessment. It is very important to establish the probable sales price of your home by looking at the competition as well as the pending sales and recently sold homes.

Formal appraisals are not the same thing as a competitive market analysis (CMA).  An appraisal only looks at the already sold homes (and perhaps may factor in the current market climate, but not to the same degree at CMA would do).  A good CMA will provide data on the active listings, pending sales and nearby solds which are similar to the subject property.  It ideally will be very honest about any negative (as well as positive) elements that alter the likely sales price of your home.  A home’s appraised value may NOT be its market value! 

If you’d like to chat about selling your home in San Jose, Los Gatos, Saratoga, or nearby, please call or email me.  When we meet, I will give you a complimentary copy of my book, “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home in Silicon Valley“.

You keep reading that it’s a “seller’s market” in Silicon Valley real estate.  You hear about multiple offers and home prices getting pushed up.  There are tax credits which cause buyers to fight to buy homes.

Should you jump in as a San Jose area seller now? 

Maybe, but if you do it, do it right!  The dirty little secret that no one talks about is that most Santa Clara County homes for sale are not selling.  They sit on the market, popping up on MLS searches for month after month.

There are quite a few common myths that home owners believe about selling their property. Believe these, and act accordingly, and your chances of selling are dramatically damaged:

• my price is high, but buyers can always “make an offer”
• it’s a seller’s market, my home does not have to be perfect
• if I fix up the home to sell, the buyer may not like the changes
• it was like this when I bought it, so I don’t have to improve it now
• I have lived with (fill in the blank) forever, there’s nothing wrong with it

Getting the staging and pricing right matter tremendously.  Today let’s just focus on staging.
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Sometimes the list price on a Silicon Valley home for sale isn’t at all what the listing agent or the seller is expecting in terms of a sales price.

Sometimes it’s closer to a lost leader – that is, it’s really only intended to get home buyers into the door. Lots of them. The idea is to create excitement, and hopefully a feeding frenzy with multiple offers.

Other times, of course, a house or condo in the San Jose area may be an overpriced listing. In those cases, it’s more like a “fishing expedition”. More like, “let’s see if anyone bites”. There are always a percentage of these on the market. When you see homes listed for 60, 90 or more days on the valley floor, most often the culprit is an inappropriately high price – and most buyers aren’t biting at that bait.

Right now, it’s a mixed market in Santa Clara County real estate. If you find a home you like, the next question is this: what’s it worth? And finally, what’s it worth to you? Many times, the best advice is to ignore the list price, if it’s a new home, and just do your homework on what the current competition is and what’s been selling.

You may find that the home you love is priced high, on the mark, a little low, or crazy low.

While it’s helpful to know what the average ratio is between list prices and sales price, that information can never substitute for market knowledge.  The most powerful figure to understand is the absorption rate or months of inventory (or days or weeks of inventory).  Six months of inventory is considered a balanced market.  The smaller the months of inventory is, the quicker the pace of the market, and the bigger a frenzy there is over good inventory. 
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Beautiful Willow Glen is one of San Jose’s many districts, but it once was a separate town until less than a hundred years ago, when the need for a better sewage system nudged the townfolk to vote in favor of annexation to San Jose.  It maintains a strong & independent identity.

To speak of “the Willow Glen real estate market” is to try to include divergent neighborhoods, school districts, architecture, price points and locations. Below please find a general overview of the market for Willow Glen houses & duet homes as of March 20, 2010. (Numbers from MLSListings.com, crunched by Mary Pope-Handy. Homes listed as “sold” were closed within the last 30 days – as of today.)

The months of inventory indicates that it is a seller’s market in Willow Glen (less than 6 months is the tipping point) overall.  Please note that there’s some variation, though, from one school district to the next.  You’ll also find variation between price points, whether or not the home is distressed, etc.

Schools:  most of Willow Glen belongs to the San Jose Unified School District.  A small section of Willow Glen is a part of the Campbell Union High School District.  (CUHSD has pretty good schools so this area is often prized for that reason.) And a tiny little sliver actually belongs to the East Side Union High School District – very few homes fall into this section so it’s not addressed specifically.

Areas: Willow Glen has many neighborhoods within it, ranging from Palm Haven and north Willow Glen to the Birdlands and the Willows at another and many others inbetween.  There are some areas more prized than others, of course.  Being close to the downtown area (and away from freeways, for instance) can dramatically increase the sales price and marketability of the home.   Certain neighborhoods have more charming architecture, larger trees along the street, wider roads or other plusses that drive their value up.

Price points and selling conditions:  In addition to these factors, we also must consider the price point of the home as well as whether a home is being sold without undue pressure or if it is a distressed sale, that is, a bank owned or short sale.  Regular sales usually sell for more (and buyers know that normally they will be given both disclosures and presale inspections prior to drafting their purchase offer).

In most of Silicon Valley, the “hottest” segment of the market is the most affordable.  For a closer look at this subset of the San Jose real estate market, I have broken it down into major groups, the first one being homes priced below $729,000 (which is close to the “conforming jumbo” loan cutoff).  Below, please notice that there is a significant difference between the months of inventory from one school district to the next as well as one sale type to the next.  In Willow Glen right now, the sweet spot of the market are homes priced under $729,000 and located in the Campbell Union High School District (not San Jose Unified). 

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