Recently my family and I vacationed in San Diego, where, naturally, we saw a lot of information related to animals, the environment and global climate change (sometimes called global warming).  We saw films regarding the rapidly shrinking polar bear habitat (due to thinning ice), for instance, and heard that they have a significant risk of being extinct in the wild in the next 20 years. 

Mapped estimation of flooding due to sea level rises of 1, 7 and 14 meters

But what about Silicon Valley? And Silicon Valley real estate?  As the ice melts, sea levels rise.  If or when this trend continues, the San Francisco Bay Area, including Santa Clara County, will be impacted quite seriously.   Where will all the water go?  Our “Natural Hazard Reports” now list things like “dam inundation zones” and “earthquake fault zones” but not rising sea water zones.  

Geology.com has an interactive map which you can view and tinker with (see link at image above or here: http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/san-francisco.shtml) to get a sense of the projected flood areas.  As you might imagine, the low lying areas closest to the bay are most at risk – parts of San Jose, Alviso, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Milpitas, East Palo Alto and Mountain View are all threatened. Some of these are already in a 100 year flood plain, which forces buyers to pay for flood insurance and makes homes a bit harder to sell.   How much harder it might be if the water were to begin to rise rapidly….

There are a number of responses to this climate crisis, many of which you may know about such as the effort to reduce carbon emmissions.  Locally, there’s also an effort to restore the wetlands around the south bay as these can help to absorb increases of water from storms (or potentially a rise in sea levels) and also trap carbon. About 85% of the wetlands have been lost over time, so there are many reasons to restore them.  The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project has a very helpful website with maps and information. 

Other solutions may arise too.  Having been to Holland, I have to wonder if there will be dikes built to protect certain areas.  Or would we fight the water like they do in Venice, by creating islands of sorts or floating blocks?   Time will tell.  Meanwhile, I see the popularity of the “green” movement becoming more & more relevant each day.

For more information, please watch this public television video “Climate Watch: California at the Tipping Point”.

QUEST on KQED Public Media.

This post was very much inspired by a good friend, fellow Realtor and blogger, Laurie Manny, who died very unexpectedly this week.  I dedicate this post to Laurie, who always encouraged, mentored and inspired many of us.  My blogs have been influenced by her and our friendship, and I will miss her immensely.  I exchanged messages with her on Monday, wrote this on Tuesday (and sent her a note on Facebook to let her know she’d motivated this post), and Wednesday learned that she died sometime between Monday evening and Wednesday morning.  Her influence will continue to be felt for many, many years to come. Rest in peace, my friend.

Buying or selling a Silicon Valley home? Be prepared for an onslought of paperwork.  There will be many questions you’ll be required to answer carefully (if selling) or to read and understand thoroughly (if buying) plus many other documents such as  inspections, reports, and boilerplate (templated or generic) disclosures.  Sometimes the language used will be technical or complicated, so you may need to do a little research as you see the questions.  Here’s a list of some of what you’ll be reading or responsible for completing or ordering, not necessarily in this order:

• the purchase agreement, any addenda & contract disclosures (appx 12 -20 pages in most cases)
• a preliminary title report and possibly CC & Rs (Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions)
• if the home is a condo, townhouse or PUD, docs pertaining to the home owner’s association (can run hundreds of pages)
• the standard disclosures common in our area which require the seller to answer questions about the home, yard and area (appx 15-25 pages)
• a natural hazard report (stating whether the home’s in an earthquake zone, flood plain etc.), environmental hazard report (whether there are leaking underground storage tanks and such), tax report (any extra bonds or assessments that will show up on your property tax bill) and other area disclosures ordered by the seller and provided by a company such as JCP, Property ID and other firms (appx 80 pages)
• inspections: usually pest and home are ordered, often also chimney, roof, possibly others such as pool or other specific components of the home (varies but often at least 40 or 50 pages, frequently more)
• for buyers: disclosures on their loan
• for sellers: the listing agreement and disclosures related to it
• at the time of signing the final papers: escrow instructions and lots of forms for transferring title – you will also see the reports seen previously too
• additionally, some real estate brokerages have a lot of their own disclosure forms too
• if the sale is a relocation, there will be a lot of relo papers to complete as well
• if it is a short sale or bank owned home, you will have extra paperwork for that also

By the time it’s all said and done, you will have reviewed several hundred pages of paperwork that are several inches high if stacked. All of this can make consumers a little bit crazy, particularly when there forms which are very nearly duplicates. (It may be a little less if it’s a trustee sale or probate, but only a little less.)

Why is there so much of it?
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How important is the marketing of homes for sale in Silicon Valley?  First it’s important to understand what we mean by the term marketing: generally, it is the way we attract potential buyers to the homes for sale.  This is more than just the flyer or newspaper ads.  It includes:

• pricing the home
• photographing the property
• describing the home on the MLS (and including good pictures)
• the quality of the flyers
• the print advertising
• the online advertising & exposure
• the networking with other agents
• the direct outreach and appeal to consumers
• the accessibility of the home
• staging the home to sell (appeal, cleanliness, no odors, etc.)

Marketing can be good, bad, or somewhere in between. Bad marketing will likely cost sellers money and good marketing will likely make them money.  

Today we’ll go over the most important elements of marketing because sellers should evaluate them when hiring a Realtor to assist them in the marketing and sale of their home.  While there are many areas of marketing, the most crucial, by far, are these three: pricing, photos, and the description on the MLS.

Pricing:  The biggest marketing mistake which is commonly seen is overpricing.  Sellers sometimes believe that their home is worth more than the buying public do and a home will remain unsold no matter what else is done right.  In fact, you could fly airplanes aroud the home and put full page color ads in every paper around the world but if the home is overpriced, it still won’t sell!  Pricing is the most important part of marketing.   With a too-high price, traffic will be diminished and offers will be low at best (lower than actual market value).

Of course, most homes are worth not just one exact dollar amount but somewhere within a range of prices, depending on terms, the speed of the sale etc.  If the pricing is well done and the rest of the marketing is also quite good, the home ought to sell on the high end of what is possible at that time.

Pricing mistakes are very costly and very easy to make.  Here are some of the ways which sellers can be misled about the probable market value of their home:

• using old comps
• relying upon online home valuations
• basing their home’s sale price on what they “need”
• hiring an agent based on his/her suggesting the highest list price (we call that “buying the listing” when an agent overstates value to secure the listing)
• expecting 100% back from all improvements done to the home
• believing buyers can “always make an offer” (if it’s overpriced, they usually won’t)
• thinking there’s no harm in just reducing the price later (if the market is going down, you will be “chasing the market down”)

The one thing that neither the sellers nor their Realtors control is the real estate market, which is fickle and can change.  In recent years it’s been up and down, depending upon location, price point, school districts and more.  Using six month old comparable sales to establish current market value just isn’t appropriate.  Sometimes even the most recently closed sale is not enough, especially if the market is sliding.  Instead of just relying on the solds, also look at the pendings and the current competition.  The less competition your home has, the better odds you have of selling it – and for more.  But a surge of inventory will cause home values (including yours) to drop.   To understand the probable buyer’s value, all of these must be factored in together.  (The online valuation sites do not do that.)

I should add that it is harder to sell a property that has issues such as high voltage power lines, deferred maintenance, messy tenants who make showings difficult, busy road, junky neighbors, or some other undesirable element.  Many agents will suggest a lower price to compensate for whatever issue is hurting the marketability of the home.

While it’s true that there is no problem that a better price cannot fix, most sellers are trying to maximize their sales price.  For that reason, I’d always suggest asking your real estate agent if there’s anything that can be done to improve the market value aside from that lower price.  Sometimes fresh paint and carpet and a professional house cleaning can do wonders for the home’s saleability.  Or giving tenants a lower rent in exchange for their cooperation during the sale will create an easier time for buyers wanting to see and purchase your home.   A little effort may have a great payoff.  (Some agents focus almost exclusively on price and may not be worried about any other element of marketing.  This is a mistake, so be aware that you may run into an agent with this belief.)
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In some parts of Silicon Valley, by crossing a particular road or driving a few feet, the whole look, feel and pricing of an area can change.

Bel Estos Drive near Rosswood Drive in San Jose

This is true for Rosswood Drive at Union Avenue in Cambrian Park.  On both sides of the intersection, there are many homes of 1200 to 1400 square feet (some larger too) all built around the same time.  Both are San Jose 95124 addresses.  Both are good areas – but the 2000 and 2100 blocks are  nicer than the 1800 & 1900 blocks of Rosswood and those homes sell for more. Why? What makes one area sell for more than another?

In the case of Rosswood Drive, part of it has to do with the beautiful canopy of trees that line the two thousand block of Rosswood and the adjoining streets (Bel Escou, Bel Canto, Bel Estos, Esther, etc.). Part of it is just that the homes are a little better maintained.  Historically, Union used to divide the schools too, and that used to be part of the higher prices – but that’s not really the case now.  (A similar jump happens along Los Gatos-Almaden Road by Harwood too – same builder, Leep, but prices nudge up just a little for homes closer to Blossom Hill Road.)

How can you tell, from looking at a neighborhood, how it compares with nearby streets in the same part of town generally?  Sometimes you cannot know from looking alone (for example a flood plain, earthquake fault or school boundary won’t show), but I’ll give you some cues as to what makes areas more or less desireabile visually.

These are some things I teach my San Jose area buyers to watch out for (lower values) in terms of appearance and sounds:
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In Almaden Valley, like in other parts of San Jose and Silicon Valley, some parts of “the market” are hotter than  others.  The real estate sweet spot appears to be homes priced in either the entry level or move-up markets – but things cool considerably as the homes become more elegant, grand and luxurious.  (This appears to be true across all of Santa Clara County: the most affordable homes are still the hottest segment of the realty market.)

Months of Inventory in Almaden Valley

Here’s how the current inventory and sales breaks down, together with the months of inventory, for the Almaden Valley part of San Jose (95120 zip code). Info from MLS Listings deemed accurate but not guaranteed. The “closed” column represents homes closed (houses & duet homes) in the last month.

As you can see, up to about $1,200,000 it’s a very strong seller’s market with less than 2 months of inventory. But beyond that price point, it’s suddenly a completely different market and is instead a very strong buyer’s market.

What about distressed property sales in Almaden?

There are almost no bank owned properties currently for sale or recently closed in Almaden – just 1 in the entry level price band which is currently listed for sale.

There are not many short sales in Almaden: right now just 5 for sale: 3 in the lowest of these five price groups, 1 in the 2nd lowest and one in the highest. Closings among short sales are also few in number: 2 in the lowest price point and one in the second lowest.  The absorption rate or months of inventory among short sales was 1.5 in the lowest price point and 1 month in the second lowest. No closings among higher priced homes that were also short sales in the last month.
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Luxury home sales remain sluggish in the west valley areas of Santa Clara County. Right now in Almaden Valley, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga, there are over 125 homes for sale listed at more than two million dollars, but in the last month only 6 have sold and closed escrow in those same areas and price ranges.

Today we’ll look at these four Silicon Valley communities and their luxury homes market to see what’s selling and where.

Almaden Valley (San Jose, 95120)

Currently in Almaden there are 11 homes for sale which are listed at or over $2,000,000.  In the last month, zero (0) sold.  That makes for an infinite number of “months of inventory”. It is an extraordinarily deep buyer’s market: great for buyers, a nightmare for sellers of high end homes there.

Will it improve? Probably not soon as there are no houses pending sale in that price range either. There are 55 pending sales in Almaden, but none listed at more than 1.6 mil and the average list price of these pending sales is under 1 mil.
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The condominium & townhouse market is improving dramatically now.  It is evident both in looking at the stats countywide and in my recent experiences holding open my townhouse listings in Saratoga and Sunnyvale as well as recently participating in the sale of a townhome in Almaden Valley (representing a buyer) – all different areas and price points but all very active.

Here are the numbers for May sales of condos and townhomes for all of Santa Clara  County:

As you can see, the days on market are shrinking and prices (both median and average) are rising.  A few numbers cut back slightly in May: the sale to list price ratio retreated a little to 99.9% and the pending properties went down a little too.  But the number of sales were up.

The “months of inventory” or absorption rate is a great way to know how much of a buyer’s or seller’s market it is in any given place. Six months is considered balanced, less is a seller’s market and more is a buyer’s market.  Here are the months of inventory for selected communities in the “west valley” area of Silicon Valley – they are all “seller’s markets”, but some are strong and some are approaching balanced:

Of course, this is still painting with a broad brush.  The absorption rate for any of these areas may not be accurate for the various price points or school districts that might be found there.  For instance, a large luxury townhouse in Los Gatos which is downtown might be a really different type of market than a small, entry level one bordering Campbell or Cambrian Park.

What everyone’s wondering is if this seller’s market for condominiums and townhouses will continue despite the end of the federal home buyer credit.  To utilize that credit, homes had to be in contract by April 30th.  Most of those should be closed now, or nearing that date at best.  So we’ll really know more as we move into summer. My sense, though, is that what’s driving this market is much more the affordable prices of homes and of loans. The credits are a bonus, but many in Silicon Valley make too much money to be able to use them.

For information on your particular part of the Silicon Valley condo or townhome market, please give me a call or email me!