Right now I’m working with a number of very frustrated home buyers.  Silicon Valley real estate inventory is painfully low, and in the lower price ranges especially, that means multiple offers are fairly common.  FHA home buyers, in particular, are getting out bid and out negotiated by all cash buyers, many of whom are investors.

How low is the inventory?  Let’s have a look at January’s inventory for houses & duet homes (“class 1″ or single family homes) over the last ten years in Santa Clara County (San Jose, Los Gatos, Campbell, etc.):

2012  1,382
2011  2,007
2010  2,426
2009  4,759
2008  4,872
2007  2,698
2006  2,202
2005  1,285
2004  1,612
2003  3,119

The average January inventory of available houses over the last 10 years is 2,636.  At 1,382, January 2012′s available inventory of houses for sale in the San Jose area was just 52% of normal.  It’s not really much different now, in early February (just did a quick check on the MLS and it’s  1509 houses now – 630 have sold & closed in the last 30 days so that’s 2.4 months of inventory – a hot seller’s market).  This is what constitutes a very severe inventory shortage.

Demand hasn’t slackened, but supply has.  You know what that means – it will push prices up, it will make buyers crazy feeling.

Why is inventory so low?

A common question is this: why is inventory so low?  I believe that there are a few drivers.  First, many home owners who would like to move really need more equity to do so.  They are waiting for the market to recover.  Some may be waiting for prices to return to their previous highs (they could be waiting awhile). Others just need a little more to make the move possible at all.

Many owners of higher priced homes are holding on until the second half of 2012, when it is expected that there will be more people with buying power due to recent and upcoming IPOs.  Economists are now predicting a bit of a frenzy the second half of this year with prices in more expensive homes getting pushed up due to competition from employees of various high tech firms.  Smart buyers are trying to get in before that hits – a real challenge given the inventory situation.

Reality check: not every house is selling!

The best properties are selling well – those which are newer or nicely remodeled, in turn key condition, easy to see, great marketing with multiple photos, appropriate MLS exposure and priced aggressively.  This is what every buyer wants, the perfect house.  Most of my clients tell me that they are willing to replace carpet and repaint, but they don’t want to do anything big, such as kitchen or bathroom remodels, removing a pool, foundation or drainage repairs, etc.  No one does!

One of the easiest ways of improving your odds on being able to purchase a house is to move away from the new or fully remodeled vision of your ideal house.  Lower your budget a little, decide to prefer homes that have been sitting on the market not due to location issues, but rather to pricing or condition issues – both of which can be fixed.

For instance, many home buyers will take a pass on properties which have a pool in the backyard.  A few months back, I did some research and found that houses with pools are harder to sell right now.  Appraisers count a pool as an improvement, but many consumers view it as a liability – an ongoing monthly expense to heat and maintain and a risk if there are small children.  Many think that it will be overwhelmingly difficult to remove and relandscape a pool, so will not even consider writing an offer if the property includes an in ground pool.

Truth is, it’s not that hard to hire a company to redo a backyard; it is not invasive the way a kitchen remodel is.  You could have it done before even moving in!  The cost varies on whether you want the pool fully removed or partially as well as how to relandscape afterwards.  I have seen bids for pool demolition work under $10,000 (relandscaping extra) with more bids between $10,000 and $25,000.  Lawn and sprinklers are not so expensive to add!

The pool issue is just one example – there are many other properties for sale which are passed over due to the condition not being ideal.  Remodeling can feel a little scary but when inventory is so tight, it can be the ticket to home ownership.

Likewise with over priced properties.  Although most homes sell within a couple of percent of list price, there are exceptions.  Sometimes real estate is badly overpriced, and in those cases you may get a seller to agree to a larger price reduction – 10% may even fly.  (This is unusual, I would note. Usually if a house is not worth within 5% of list price, the seller is unreasonable and won’t accept an offer which is less. But sometimes it can work.)

Here’s to the over priced ugly duckling.  It could be your best friend when inventory is rock bottom!

How’s the Almaden Valley real estate market?   Prices appear to  have been rising, but slipped some this last month. There’s not much inventory in this part of the valley so it remains a seller’s market, incredibly. A  fairly nice 4 bed, 2 bath house in most parts of the San Jose 95120 zip code will still cost about a million dollars (more if it’s in the best areas with best schools and best condition).  A smaller 3-4 bedroom townhouse with good schools will be about half that much unless it’s really young and highly upgraded.

Average Days on Market  & Sale to List Price Ratio for Almaden Valley (San Jose, CA 95120) houses in 2011:

Number of Homes For Sale vs Sold for Almaden Houses on the Market

Date is between Jan 2011 and Dec 2011

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 570 listings

Listings by Price Range

Date is between Feb 2011 and Jan 2012

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 470 listings

Sales by price range

Date is between Jan 2011 and Dec 2011

Property Sub Class is ‘Single Family Residential’

Area AreaIdName is ’13 Almaden Valley’

Results calculated from approximately 320 listings

For more info please see my Almaden Valley real estate report.

Houses, sales, pendings, prices in San Jose 95120 for November 2011 – note that they are down month over month and year over year BUT if you go back to October, they were way, way up (double digit). It’s helpful to have the “big picture” and not focus on just a small amount of data. Reviewing several months in a row we see some ups, some down – mostly down (in single or double digits) but when up, it was way up (20-40%). No easy answers here.

Trends At a Glance	Nov 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$935,000	$1,075,000 (-13.0%)	$950,000 (-1.6%)
Average Price	$1,007,750	$1,144,880 (-12.0%)	$1,123,800 (-10.3%)
No. of Sales	19	27 (-29.6%)	21 (-9.5%)
Pending Properties	31	35 (-11.4%)	45 (-31.1%)
Active	55	68 (-19.1%)	93 (-40.9%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.8%	97.0% (+1.9%)	97.5% (+1.3%)
Days on Market	47	52 (-8.7%)	40 (+18.2%)

Numbers for October – notice the big jump from September in pricing!

Trends At a Glance	Oct 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$1,075,000	$822,000 (+30.8%)	$885,000 (+21.5%)
Average Price	$1,144,880	$815,646 (+40.4%)	$910,012 (+25.8%)
No. of Sales	27	24 (+12.5%)	22 (+22.7%)
Pending Properties	35	42 (-16.7%)	41 (-14.6%)
Active	68	67 (+1.5%)	111 (-38.7%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.0%	95.6% (+1.4%)	97.4% (-0.5%)
Days on Market	52	46 (+13.6%)	36 (+42.2%)

The list price to sales price ratio moved up but days on market and number of pendings were off from the month prior – though not year over year. Compared to a year ago, prices are up and all is rosier except the days on market. Buyers may be having trouble adjusting to the rising prices in Almaden.

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$822,000	$835,000 (-1.6%)	$931,000 (-11.7%)
Average Price	$815,646	$868,909 (-6.1%)	$967,599 (-15.7%)
No. of Sales	24	39 (-38.5%)	27 (-11.1%)
Pending Properties	42	37 (+13.5%)	34 (+23.5%)
Active	67	83 (-19.3%)	124 (-46.0%)
Sale vs. List Price	95.6%	97.1% (-1.6%)	98.3% (-2.8%)
Days on Market	46	62 (-26.4%)	37 (+24.1%)

And August:

Trends At a Glance	Aug 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$835,000	$926,000 (-9.8%)	$932,500 (-10.5%)
Average Price	$868,909	$1,038,120 (-16.3%)	$997,688 (-12.9%)
No. of Sales	39	20 (+95.0%)	32 (+21.9%)
Pending Properties	37	53 (-30.2%)	46 (-19.6%)
Active	83	93 (-10.8%)	121 (-31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.1%	97.0% (+0.2%)	99.0% (-1.9%)
Days on Market	62	65 (-5.7%)	36 (+70.9%)

CONDOS

Next the Almaden Valley condo market.  It’s improved over last month!  Some quick stats:
Sales fell 0.0% from the month before, and were up 200.0% year-over-year.  Prices improved in Sep 2011 with the median price climbing 11.6% from the previous month, down 23% compared to last year. The average price rose 22.9%, a yearly loss of 15.7%.  Inventory fell 0.0% from last month, and was down 23.8% year-over-year.

Trends At a Glance	Nov 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$577,000	$495,000 (+16.6%)	$620,000 (-6.9%)
Average Price	$577,000	$498,333 (+15.8%)	$620,000 (-6.9%)
No. of Sales	2	3 (-33.3%)	2 (0.0%)
Pending Properties	3	3 (0.0%)	3 (0.0%)
Active	11	11 (0.0%)	16 (-31.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.5%	98.4% (-1.0%)	95.6% (+1.9%)
Days on Market	118	93 (+25.9%)	34 (+250.8%)

October:

Trends At a Glance	Oct 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$495,000	$512,000 (-3.3%)	$683,000 (-27.5%)
Average Price	$498,333	$560,667 (-11.1%)	$715,250 (-30.3%)
No. of Sales	3	3 (0.0%)	4 (-25.0%)
Pending Properties	3	4 (-25.0%)	2 (+50.0%)
Active	11	12 (-8.3%)	15 (-26.7%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.4%	98.0% (+0.4%)	95.4% (+3.2%)
Days on Market	93	67 (+40.0%)	40 (+134.8%)

September:

Trends At a Glance	Sep 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$512,000	$458,900 (+11.6%)	$665,000 (-23.0%)
Average Price	$560,667	$456,300 (+22.9%)	$665,000 (-15.7%)
No. of Sales	3	3 (0.0%)	1 (+200.0%)
Pending Properties	4	5 (-20.0%)	7 (-42.9%)
Active	12	11 (+9.1%)	14 (-14.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	98.0%	97.3% (+0.7%)	95.3% (+2.8%)
Days on Market	67	91 (-27.0%)	25 (+166.7%)

And for August:

Trends At a Glance	Aug 2011	Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Price	$458,900	$565,000 (-18.8%)	$635,000 (-27.7%)
Average Price	$456,300	$555,200 (-17.8%)	$635,000 (-28.1%)
No. of Sales	3	5 (-40.0%)	2 (+50.0%)
Pending Properties	5	5 (0.0%)	3 (+66.7%)
Active	11	13 (-15.4%)	16 (-31.3%)
Sale vs. List Price	97.3%	98.1% (-0.9%)	98.4% (-1.1%)
Days on Market	91	103 (-11.7%)	7 (+1,121.0%)

Next let’s have a multi year look at the Almaden Valley real estate market.  Below please notice the supply & demand graph going back to late 2007. Although it’s been a “wild ride”, you can see a very clear pattern emerge that around December or January of eacy year, inventory falls (the dark gray line) and relative to the months just before or after, these tend to be “better” for sellers. What’s happening?  The available supply of homes tends to diminish over the holidays.  Prices are perhaps softer than at other times of the year.  Buyers who need to buy, do buy.  The odds of selling are actually higher, in many cases, during this time of year than others!

Here are a few quick stats from Altos Research (which will be automatically updated weekly and to which I have a subscription) – these are based on the list price of townhouses, condominiums and houses for sale in San Jose’s Almaden Valley 95120 area:

90-day stats for Single Family properties in SAN JOSE, CA95120 as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$927,953	Average List Price:	$1,056,795
Total Inventory:	129	Price per Square Foot:	$405
Average Home Size:	2,414	Median Lot Size:	8,580
Average # Beds:	4.04	Average # Baths:	2.72
Homes Absorbed:	11	Newly Listed:	8
Days on Market:	113	Average Age:	36

90-day stats for Condo properties in SAN JOSE, CA95120 as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$606,104	Average List Price:	$637,011
Total Inventory:	17	Price per Square Foot:	$365
Average Home Size:	1,674	Median Lot Size:	n/a
Average # Beds:	2.79	Average # Baths:	2.34
Homes Absorbed:	1	Newly Listed:	1
Days on Market:	178	Average Age:	26

The residential real estate market in San Jose’s Almaden Valley area was a “hot seller’s market” early this year due to more demand than supply but it is cooling slightly now, which will be a great relief to frustrated home buyers, but it has not been giving them the big influx of inventory they’d like to see.

This is 2000 all over again:

• rapid price appreciation
• multiple offers
• overbids
• offers with NO contingencies for loan, property inspection and appraisal
• and once in awhile, “sharp bids”

This type of market is a delight for sellers and a nightmare for buyers.  Some of the more crazy terms led to lawsuits and more disclosure paperwork after the purchases of 2000 led to the lawsuits of 2002….

Please think twice before writing offers with no contingencies at all!

What happened to the strong buyer’s market, where bargain hunters could scoop up great deals at ridiculously low prices?

Many buyers have waited to “find the bottom of the market”. Now’s the time to get off the fence; the market’s turning and is headed into seller’s market territory (at least in some areas and price points).

One of the best ways to understand the real estate market conditions is to track the absorption rate or months of inventory. Approximately 6 months of inventory is a balanced market. Five or less is a seller’s market and seven or more months is a buyer’s market.

Here’s a view of what’s happening among single family homes in Santa Clara County (about 60% of the county is represented by the City of San Jose):

Inventory is down, sales volume is up, the median sales price is up (it had been holding steady at appx $450,000 for the last three months – this is the first uptick we’ve seen this year). The days on market are holding steady at close to 100 and the percent of list price is hovering at around 97%, where it’s been throughout 2009.  No real signs of slippage here, but there are signs that inventory is being absorbed.

Once inventory starts declining, there will be pressure on prices to go up.  (It is supply and demand driven, of course.)

On the flip side, the foreclosure moratorium will be ending shortly and there may be an increase of inventory.  If that happens, it will stem the tide and it will revert into buyer territory.  Until and unless that happens, though, it looks like Silicon Valley real estate is generally turning back to the seller’s favor after three long, difficult years of buyer gains.