How is the Campbell condo and townhouse market?  The answer may well depend on both what part of that market we’re discussing and which data we’re focusing on.

The absorption rate, or months of inventory, indicates that it’s a seller’s market:

The hottest segment is the bank owned or REO part of the Campbell condominium or townhouse realty market, and the slowest segment is the short sale section (which is about 20% of the available inventory). That’s very typical of other nearby areas: the hardest homes to sell are the short sales.  As a side note: there are 39 condos available and 29 which are sale pending. That is a high ratio, which also points to a seller’s market.

How does this compare to a year ago?  It’s completely different!

A year ago, the months of inventory was a whopping 72% higher at 8.8 for May 2009 vs 2.5 for May 2010. Solds are up 42% from 12 months ago.  Pending sales are up 200% from a year ago also.  So from every vantage, it’s much, much better than a year ago.

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How many of the Silicon Valley homes for sale are listed as short sales? How many are bank owned properties? This morning I did some time pulling the numbers out for my readers so that you can see the actual real estate figures.

What’s being counted below are homes for sale, including houses, duet homes, condominiums and townhouses (or townhomes) in the various areas of Santa Clara County listed below.

As was the case a year or two ago, most of the short sale activity is taking place in the most affordable price ranges. The higher priced areas are not immune, though – but because there are fewer distressed properties to choose from, they get purchased rather quickly, so we’d see a higher percentage of them among the pending sales rather than the available listings.

Today I did a post on this subject focusing specifically on the Los Gatos real estate market in terms of short sales today vs the last couple of years (and the question of whether or not the trend is to rising numbers of short sales available). To learn more, visit the article on my Live in Los Gatos blog.

For bargain hunting buyers of high end properties, then, it’s slim pickings!  In the entry level areas, there’s much more selection but also lots of competition.  Last week I was involved with some buyers in a bidding frenzy in a terribly underpriced Cambrian short sale: it got 43 offers!  (So please remember that the list price may be completely unrelated to the sales price.)

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in Silicon Valley, it helps to have the assistance of a Realtor with a pulse on the market.  Please contact me for a confidential & no-obligation meeting today!

If you’re interested in buying (or for that matter, selling) a Los Gatos short sale, please visit my Live in Los Gatos blog, where yesterday I wrote about this subset of the real estate market. Topics covered include:

• the current number of short sale listings on the market in Los Gatos
• the current number of pending solds (of short sales)
• the number of short sales which have closed escrow in the last month
• the “absorption rate” or “months of inventory” in the short sale market in LG
• a study of short sales listed between 1-1-09 and 6-30-09: how many of them actually sold & closed in the last year? how many are on the market still? how many are “off market” and off the radar?
• how long does it take to sell a short sale in Los Gatos?
• how long does it take to close escrow on a LG short sale?

Here’s the article & link:
Los Gatos Short Sales: Snapshot of Today’s Activity

No, sorry, there aren’t a lot of distressed homes for sale in the Saratoga and Los Gatos areas.  Would be bargain hunters email me regularly, hoping to find lots and lots of short sales and bank owned (REO – real estate owned by the bank) houses for sale in high end west valley neighborhoods.

There just aren’t many of them!

As of today, in Los Gatos (95030 and 95032 zip codes) and Saratoga (95070) , there are 185 single family homes (houses, perhaps a few “duet homes”) for sale.  Of the 185, a mere 14 of them are distressed properties (6 bank owned, 8 short sale).  That is just 7.5%!  For those who want Los Gatos or Saratoga Schools (not Campbell, Union, or Cupertino), the odds are even worse.  Only two of those homes go to the Los Gatos-Saratoga High School District. (Prices of all distressed properties currently available in these areas range from $699,000 to about $3 million.)

There are some good deals to be found in addition to this very small pool of bank owned properties and short sale listings in Saratoga and Los Gatos.  Often the best deals are found among homes which have been on the market a long time but aren’t selling due to cosmetic issues.  Homes which need changes such as fresh carpet, paint, or “easy” updating and remodeling (like new countertops, light fixtures, etc.) can be the best bargains around, particularly if the seller is truly motivated.  So don’t lose heart – just broaden your strategy a little and you’ll be far more able to locate a suitable home.

In some parts of Santa Clara County, a very significant percentage of homes for sale and homes under contract (pending sale) are “short sale” listings.  This is particularly true in entry level areas like San Jose’s Alum Rock area, the Blossom Valley district, the Santa Teresa area, etc.  These homes can be hard to sell and even harder to close – but why? They are usually well priced so should just fly off the market, but often that isn’t the case.

The trouble with short sales is that there are a lot of people involved, so there are a lot more places for things to go wrong. Unfortunately, they often do go wrong. I believe the national average is that about 20% of short sales that sell (go pending) actually close.   Think of it like hurdles:

• The first hurdle is getting a buyer to write an offer (despite the significant risk that the sale will never close)
• The second hurdle is getting the seller to accept the offer (and the seller’s agent to agree that it is viable)
• The third hurdle is in having the lender or lenders approve the purchase agreement – it is MUCH easier if there’s only one lender, very difficult if there are two lenders and extraordinarily hard if there are three lenders. Sometimes lenders would rather foreclose than work with a short sale, especially if there’s more than one loan.
• The fourth hurdle is the seller approving the lender’s terms, which may or may not be easy to swallow (some lenders require that a seller promise to pay back some of the money over time or upfront).  Sellers reserve the right to refuse the terms.
• The fifth hurdle is the agents (and possibly buyers) approving any concessions the bank requests. Sometimes the bank will require a commission cut. Agents may or may not be willing to accept what the bank requests. (Imagine having your income suddently cut by 1/3 or 1/2. You might say no too.) Buyers may be informed that the bank requires them to pay more costs too.
• The last hurdle is keeping the buyers in escrow during the prolonged period between when the seller accepts the offer and when the seller accepts the bank’s terms.  Sometimes unscrupulous buyers will write offers on several short sales and then wait to see which one is accepted first – and bail on the others. This causes a great deal of harm to the seller, who may have been nudged closer to foreclosure.  On the other hand, though, with only a 20% chance of success, buyers wonder why they shouldn’t take this approach just to hedge their bets.

I’ve seen all of the above happen in my Silicon Valley real estate practice: buyers writing offers on multiple homes, sellers refusing bank approvals, lenders foreclosing when a great offer was on the table, agents refusing commission cuts. 
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It's frustrating to wait for a bank response on a distressed home you want to buy or sell!

A challenge we’re running into with the market weirdness is the deceptive status of listings in and around San Jose and Silicon Valley.  Sometimes a house or condo appears on the web to be a listing that’s available and ready for your offer, but in fact the agents are no longer accepting offers on the seller’s behalf.

Since a large percentage of our San Jose real estate sales consists of distressed properties (short sales or bank owned properties), the situation is more complicated than with a “normal sale” for many homes.  (Non-distressed listings gleefully proclaim, “this is a NORMAL sale! no bank approval needed!” because they know that serious buyers, particularly highly motivated ones, just want to buy a home without delays and games.) 

With distressed sales, the complications usually come in the way of bank involvement on the seller’s side (beyond just funding the buyer’s loan).
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It is a strong seller’s market in the Alum Rock area of San Jose right now: inventory is shrinking and prices are rising after hitting bottom a few months ago. Prices are still way off year over year, but for the last 4 months or so, prices have been rising in this part of Silicon Valley, and it’s quite dramatic.

As of a few days ago in this area of San Jose, there were 203 single family homes for sale and there were 114 that sold/closed in the last month. To get the “months of inventory” or absorption rate we just divide the 203 by the 114 and we get about 1.8 months of inventory, which makes it a very strong sellers market. 

(Because it’s so affordable, first time homebuyers are flocking to Alum Rock in droves. Unfortunately, they are sometimes outbid by all-cash investors and left frustrated as homes get multiple offers and prices skyrocket out of reach.)

The absorption rate can be measured in days, weeks, months (or years) of inventory.  Below is a chart reflecting the days of inventory relative to the last 18 months or so.  As you can see, the absorption rate has been shrinking very, very dramatically (as prices have fallen through the floor).

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