How’s the Cupertino real estate market?
The real estate market in Silicon Valley can sometimes be a little quirky, so I like to approach this question from a few angles. In this article I’ll make use of my charts from Altos Research, which uses listing data (not solds) and is automatically updated every week and also monthly reports from my RE Report subscription. Also I’ll periodically update it with info from the MLS that I have crunched myself or anecdotal stories from those of us “in the trenches.” The article is a bit long but I think much more comprehensive giving the multiple methods of answering the question of how the Cupertino real estate market is faring.
Cupertino median list price of houses by price quartile
Often the real estate market in any given city is very different between the most expensive homes and the most affordable ones. While many Cupertino home buyers are looking for a short commute, great public schools or strong resale value, some seek a luxury property with a view in the Cupertino hills (either off of Montevina Road by Ridge Vineyards or in other lower foothills).
The last few months have had some ups and downs in pricing, but most segments of the Cupertino real estate market have seen an overall uptick since last year. The luxury market in Cupertino had some calming over summer, but is back on the rise again. What if we look back more than a year? Combining the quartiles, it seems that there’s been more up than down.
The Blossom Valley area of San Jose is on the south end of the city and covers the 95123 and 95136 zip codes. For our MLS, it’s “area 12.” A more affordable section of Silicon Valley, Blossom Valley has much to offer in addition to more reasonable housing prices. Many areas enjoy views of the Santa Teresa Foothills or the Communications Hill knolls or even the coastal foothills in the distance, as with the photo below. One corner of it sits alongside beautiful Almaden Lake, too. One corner is located at the crossroads of Highways 85 and 87, making it an easy commute destination for those working in downtown San Jose. And there’s an abundance of shopping opportunities.
Much more could be written, but let’s now instead turn to the real estate market there.
First, “live,” automatically updating Altos Charts for San Jose 95123 and 95136 and single family homes (houses and duet homes). These use list prices, not sales prices.
The median list price of both 95123 and 95136, all prices, single family homes (houses and duet homes, if there are any).
Next, the median list price for just the San Jose 95123 area of Blossom Valley, and separated by price quartile:
And next, the median list price of just San Jose 95136 by price quartile:
Willow Glen is perhaps the most charming residential area of the city of San Jose with its old style architecture, tree lined streets and quaint downtown area on Lincoln Avenue and nearby. For folks working in downtown San Jose, the Willow Glen area (roughly the same as 95125 zip code, though a bit of 95124 is included also) is extremely convenient. Inventory has fallen slightly since last year, but sales are remaining consistent. Properties continually sell regularly over list price quickly, in under a month. Willow Glen remains in a sellers market.
Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report with all of the numbers, stats and trends from the closed sales of houses for last month. Further down in this article you’ll find the Altos Research charts as well.
|Trends At a Glance||Oct 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,425,000 (+14.0%)||$1,250,000||$1,122,500 (+26.9%)|
|Average Price||$1,476,040 (+8.1%)||$1,365,410||$1,197,050 (+23.3%)|
|No. of Sales||53 (-10.2%)||59||48 (+10.4%)|
|Pending||33 (-31.3%)||48||50 (-34.0%)|
|Active||39 (+11.4%)||35||84 (-53.6%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||107.1% (+2.3%)||104.7%||100.5% (+6.6%)|
|Days on Market||14 (-35.6%)||22||39 (-63.9%)|
|Days of Inventory||22 (+28.3%)||17||53 (-58.0%)|
And the chart from last month for comparison:
|Trends At a Glance||Sep 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,250,000 (-10.1%)||$1,391,000||$1,118,890 (+11.7%)|
|Average Price||$1,365,410 (-8.1%)||$1,486,540||$1,195,970 (+14.2%)|
|No. of Sales||59 (+7.3%)||55||45 (+31.1%)|
|Pending||48 (-11.1%)||54||48 (0.0%)|
|Active||35 (+29.6%)||27||91 (-61.5%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||104.7% (+0.6%)||104.1%||100.6% (+4.0%)|
|Days on Market||22 (-1.1%)||22||26 (-16.6%)|
|Days of Inventory||17 (+16.8%)||15||59 (-70.7%)|
Things are similar to last month. Despite fewer sales, the days on market have shortened and the sales price vs list price is up. Willow Glen is showing no signs of cooling.
And next, of Willow Glen condos:
My Cambrian area of San Jose Real Estate Report was recently published with the updated numbers from the closed sales last month for this part of San Jose (95124 and 95118 with a little of 95008 too). Please click on the link above to see much more information there.
In this district of San Jose, we have been experiencing dreadfully low inventory of homes for sale, and buyers aren’t backing off as much as usual for this time of year – I believe because there is just a whole lot of pent up demand from upwards of two years in a deep seller’s market. What does that mean? Sellers, if you have a problem home, or one not updated or well maintained, this is the time to sell it – buyers have little to choose from so are purchasing properties that need more work than they would bother with in a more balanced market.
Want to learn more about Cambrian Park real estate, the Cambrian district, Cambrian neighborhoods, school districts and zip codes? Please also see this article: Cambrian Park: Good Schools, Low Crime, Close to Los Gatos and Campbell. Cambrian neighborhoods can be located at the menu bar: Neighborhoods –> San Jose (all areas) –> Cambrian Park (SJ).
Be sure to read to the end to see the live Altos charts too – they are near the end of the article so please keep reading into the next page!
Cambrian single family homes trends at a glance
Sales and turnover are fast and steady, and the sales to list price has remained high, close to 108% for three months now and now topping 110%. It is a strong sellers market.
|Trends At a Glance||Oct 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,195,000 (+3.9%)||$1,150,000||$1,020,000 (+17.2%)|
|Average Price||$1,292,050 (+6.6%)||$1,212,070||$1,065,180 (+21.3%)|
|No. of Sales||59 (+1.7%)||58||58 (+1.7%)|
|Pending||65 (+20.4%)||54||63 (+3.2%)|
|Active||23 (-32.4%)||34||59 (-61.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||110.8% (+1.9%)||108.7%||102.0% (+8.7%)|
|Days on Market||13 (+11.8%)||12||23 (-44.2%)|
|Days of Inventory||12 (-31.2%)||17||31 (-61.7%)|
And the chart from last month:
|Trends At a Glance||Sep 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,150,000 (-0.2%)||$1,152,000||$980,000 (+17.3%)|
|Average Price||$1,212,070 (+2.5%)||$1,182,770||$1,039,930 (+16.6%)|
|No. of Sales||58 (-22.7%)||75||77 (-24.7%)|
|Pending||54 (+14.9%)||47||58 (-6.9%)|
|Active||34 (+36.0%)||25||86 (-60.5%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||108.7% (+0.5%)||108.2%||101.8% (+6.8%)|
|Days on Market||12 (-2.4%)||12||23 (-50.0%)|
|Days of Inventory||17 (+70.0%)||10||32 (-47.5%)|
Generally speaking it is still a hot seller’s market and great time to sell a Cambrian home.
The condo and townhouse real estate market for San Jose 95124 & 95118
Willow Glen is one of the most charming areas of San Jose, consisting of many older homes which feature lovely, classic architecture. Most Silicon Valley home buyers treasure the Willow Glen charm and ambiance, but many are seeking newer homes. A fabulous option is “The Willows“.
KB Homes built “The Willows” in 1999 to 2000. It is tucked away at the southernmost tip of Willow Glen, off of Foxworthy Avenue & close to Almaden Expressway, but only about 2.5 to 3 miles from all the action on Lincoln Avenue.
The tree-lined streets are built in something of a loop shape with Rubino Circle being the main access or loop road. Situated on the inner part of the loop are homes with smaller lots that are a little more affordable. The outer part of the circle is built with slightly larger homes on larger lots (but none of the lots are “big”). Sidewalks with soft curbs at the corners accompany the streets and make for a pedestrian-friendly, bike, wheelchair or stroller friendly area. Visit in the early evenings and you will see children and adults walking, strolling, taking dogs for a walk etc. – always a good sign! Because the neighborhood is a bit like an oversized cul-de-sac (no through traffic), it is very quiet in terms of traffic. The area has large street lights, too, making for a safe feeling community.
Hearing the real estate market “war stories” about dozens of offers on Silicon Valley properties and overbids ranging from 20 – 55% had convinced me that we were in a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble back in early 2013. At least, this is what a bubble looks like, sounds like, feels like, and acts like. At the time I thought, “how much longer could this continue?” Four years and counting – that is the answer.
I tell my family and friends that we are in “crazyland” as buyers purchase homes with no contingencies of any kind, houses sell in 10 days or less (if everything is right, which seems to be the case 75% of the time), and those same properties are selling at well over list price and with much more than 20% down.
The absorption rate, or months of inventory: it is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble?
What do the numbers say? I just logged into MLSListings.com and see that right now, in all of Santa Clara County there are 817 single family homes (houses + duet or attached single family homes). The pending and contingent homes measure 1074, far more! That ratio alone suggests that the market is in overdrive. In the last 30 days, 950 single family homes have sold & closed escrow. So the months of inventory is 817 divided by 950 = .86 of a month of inventory, so about 3.5 weeks of inventory. (When I originally blogged about the potential bubble, it was 1.8 months of inventory.)
In other words, things are flying off the shelves. And they have been, with only a few minor blips here and there, since early 2012. Does that sound like a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble to you – a crazy strong seller’s market lasting 4.5 years? I could be wrong, but I think of bubbles as being something fairly swift, not a multi year trend.
Homes are selling faster than new ones are coming onto the market!
It’s one thing to say that one city, town, or school district has a very low months of inventory (or high absorption rate). It is another altogether to say an entire county is that low. This is a major trend, not a tiny blip in the statistics.
How soon we forget that after the outrageously deep seller’s market in 2000, we had a steep drop in 2001. Or that all the crazy buying in the San Jose area (and other places) in 2005-06, combined with bad financial regulations, lead to the crash of 2007-2009. But perhaps that enormous “correction”, in which Santa Clara County lost about 50% of its value on average, had more room to recover than we initially realized. Jobs keep flowing in, and housing starts are not keeping up. Supply and demand – the age old equation. That would seem to refute the idea that this is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble. Perhaps low inventory and strong demand are what we should be expecting going forward. Continue reading
How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a hot “seller’s market” overall. But look closer and you can see there are clear market micro-climates. Prices are better for sellers, while buyers struggle with higher prices and less homes to choose from.
Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale
Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory. What’s happening?
First, let’s see what “usually” happens in the 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale. Here’s a look at the last 10 years (all available history), care of Altos Research:
Here you can see that inventory has regular peaks and dips. Inventory tends to rise early each year and peak in mid to late summer. After the peak is a decline through autumn and winter with the lowest point in the coldest part of the year before turning around again before spring.
Now let’s look up close at just the last 3 years.
As usual, our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later – at least, that happened until 2017. This year, inventory stayed up longer than usual, not going as low in winter as expected, but instead fell later, when the market is usually heating up! Rather than rising to a peak again in summer, it looks like inventory is continuing to drop or at least remain extraordinarily low. We have hit the bottom (hopefully), but inventory won’t necessarily increase as the year progresses, if seasonal trends are followed. Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.
What does it cost to buy a home with really good schools in Silicon Valley? Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino and Palo Alto are all areas with highly regarding public schools. These aren’t the only areas with good schools but they are popular “west valley” areas that people may consider if working for Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook or any number of high tech employers.
Los Gatos and Saratoga both have multiple school districts, running from good to very good or excellent. The cost of housing tends to follow the popularity of the district, so for those areas I’m showing the breakdown not just for the whole town of Los Gatos but also by the high school district (Los Gatos-Saratoga or Campbell Union High School District). Same with Saratoga. (The Monte Sereno real estate market is very similar to Los Gatos, but slightly more expensive. Most of Monte Sereno has Los Gatos schools, but a small number of homes are in the Campbell area.)
Here are the average numbers for single family homes sold in the last 60 days ranging from 1500 – 2500 square feet, on a lot between 5000 and 10,000 SF, with 3-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms to give a sense of what it would cost to purchase a typical house in these areas. Please note that right now it’s a strong seller’s market, so many (if not most or all) homes are selling for more than the list price. DOM stands for days on the market.
If you are new to Santa Clara County, you may be wondering if this is correct. The cost to buy a home in these areas is what?
- Los Gatos: approximately $1,500,000 to $2,150,000 depending on the school district
- Saratoga: approximately $1,700,000 to about $2,500,000 depending on the schools
- Cupertino: approx $2,000,000 (some high schools will bring in higher prices and others lower)
- Palo Alto: approx $2,700,000 – $3,000,000
Remember, these prices do not mean that the houses being sold are perfect. Because it is a strong seller’s market, many properties are being sold which need new roofing, extensive pest work, remodeling, perhaps updating of electrical or plumbing systems or more. Many home buyers will need to spend 1-2% on things like termite fumigation, dry rot or roof repairs, carpets, paint, windows and more, and usually this will be done before they move in. So whatever the budget is, buffer it a little bit for both money and time to make it turnkey.
To compare, here’s the same chart, following the same criteria, taken in April 2014. See what’s changed:
For people relocating to Silicon Valley from out of the San Jose or Peninsula area, this real estate market can be daunting. There are other areas with good schools which are a bit further from most employment areas which can be an alternative, too. They include the Cambrian 95124 and Almaden 95120 (especially the southern area with Bret Harte Middle School and Leland High School) areas within San Jose.
Finally, in some cases, it may be more affordable to make use of private schools, which are plentiful in the San Francisco Bay area. In some situations it can be financially more affordable to buy outside of the highly competitive areas with the best schools and utilize the private school system. Some of the private schools are religious, some secular, and some with a language focus (bilingual in French, German, Chinese, etc.).
Interested in purchasing a home in one of these fantastic communities? Please call or email me! 408 204-7673 or mary (at) popehandy.com
$1,868,000 : 1083 W Hill CT, CUPERTINO3 beds, 2 baths
$925,000 : 10163 Danube DR, CUPERTINO2 beds, 2 baths
$2,388,000 : 21746 Noonan CT, CUPERTINO5 beds, 3 baths
$2,398,888 : 10105 N Foothill BLVD, CUPERTINO3 beds, 4 baths
$2,460,000 : 10353 Alpine DR, CUPERTINO0 beds, 0 bath
$3,250,000 : 10109 S Tantau AVE, CUPERTINO5 beds, 4 baths
$998,000 : 19507 Stevens Creek BLVD 205, CUPERTINO1 bed, 1 bath
$500,000 : 17580 Stevens Canyon RD, CUPERTINO1 bed, 1 bath
$2,148,000 : 10301 Byrne AVE, CUPERTINO3 beds, 1 bath
$2,900,000 : 10466 Manzanita CT, CUPERTINO4 beds, 3 baths
See all Real estate in the city of Cupertino.
(all data current as of 11/20/2017)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
The Oaktree Park neighborhood in San Jose is a scenic residential community with wide appeal to home buyers due to good Almaden schools, close proximity to large parks and is one of only a few areas in Almaden Valley which includes a cabaña and swim team. Additionally, this area is very convenient as it’s close to schools, shops and commute routes to downtown San Jose and much of Silicon Valley. It is a fairly intimate neighborhood with 156 homes.
Where is the Oaktree Park neighborhood?
The Oaktree Park subdivision is within the boundaries of Meridian Avenue, Redmond Avenue and Mcabbe Road on three sides and the Jeffrey Fontana Park on the north side.
The census bureau (and perhaps also the city of San Jose) has attributed names to some parts of Almaden and this neighborhood falls into the Crossgates section. I do not believe that most residents refer to this area that way, though. Perhaps more likely they’d call it part of the greater Fontana Park neighborhood. Just the other side of Meridian is the vastly larger Almaden Meadows neighborhood.
What schools serve the Oaktree Park neighborhood in San Jose?
The public schools for Oaktree Park are within the San Jose Unified School District:
Los Alamitos Elementary School (API 935 in 2013)
Castillero Middle School (API 846 in 2013)
Pioneer High School (API 822 in 2013)
Los Alamitos Elementary and Holy Spirit Elementary (Catholic) are both just a couple of blocks from Oaktree Park. Additonally there are 2 preschools really close too: Precious Preschool and Shepherd of the Valley Lutheran Preschool.
For more information and links for schools, school districts, API scores and maps of boundaries lines for schools in the Almaden area of San Jose, please also read:
What are homes like in Oaktree Park?
Homes in Oaktree Park are single family dwellings – all detached houses (no townhouses or condominiums). These are primarily ranch style or two story ranch style houses, built in the early 1970s on lots of about 8000 to 9000 square feet, though a few are more than that. Interior size runs between about 1600 square feet to about 3000 square feet (if added on). Prices may be in the mid 600s for a smaller home, needing work and a less desirable location (such as on a busy road or immediately adjacent to the high voltage power lines that run through the park) to perhaps a little over a million dollars for a beautifully updated or rebuilt larger home in an ideal location within the neighborhood. In the current market (June 2017), smaller homes are going between the mid $900s to the mid $1.1 million mark and larger homes are selling between $1.2-$1.3 million.
More information on the Oaktree Park neighborhood below!
Often I have clients who are interested in purchasing a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a good school district in Silicon Valley, particularly in the South Bay and West Valley areas. Tonight I did a study on the MLS of homes that have sold and closed escrow in the last 4 months with these characteristics:
- single family home (house)
- 4 bedrooms
- 2 bathrooms
- 1800 to 2200 square feet of living space
- 6000 to 10,000 sf lot
Disclaimers aside, here are the numbers for select West Valley Communities in the West/South Bay area with good schools. The first number is the average sales price per square foot, the second number is the average sales price:
And a look at the chart from all back in 2015…
And all the way back in 2011. What’s changed? A lot! The order has shifted some, showing where demand has increased or decreased. Most noticeably, the prices are significantly lower in 2011 than they are now. The 2015 chart shows prices somewhere in-between the 2011 and 2017 levels. Palo Alto and Los Altos remain consistently in the top two positions.
The home prices tend to run with the school district API scores. You can check the 2013, three year average, API scores in Santa Clara County for both the districts and the individual schools online here. Continue reading