How’s the Cupertino real estate market?
Much of the Santa Clara County is seeing lower prices than it did back in March or April. There was a slight dip in prices in May, but it bounced right back in June. The median sale price in June for single family homes was the highest year to date in 2018. The average sale price in June was just a tad off of the highest average sale price month of the year, which oddly enough had been in January. (That said, there were only 9 closings in January – not a big pool for statistical purposes. You can see the current sold stats near the bottom of this article under the RE Report subtitle.
About this info:
The real estate market in Silicon Valley can sometimes be a little quirky, so I like to approach this question from a few angles. In this article I’ll make use of my charts from Altos Research, which uses listing data (not solds) and is automatically updated every week and also monthly reports from my RE Report subscription, which uses sold data as well as active listings data. Also I’ll periodically update it with info from the MLS that I have crunched myself or anecdotal stories from those of us “in the trenches.” The article is a bit long but I think much more comprehensive giving the multiple methods of answering the question of how the Cupertino real estate market is faring.
Cupertino median list price of houses by price quartile
Often the real estate market in any given city is very different between the most expensive homes and the most affordable ones. While many Cupertino home buyers are looking for a short commute, great public schools or strong resale value, some seek a luxury property with a view in the Cupertino hills (either off of Montevina Road by Ridge Vineyards or in other lower foothills). The more moderate pricing tiers are faring better in Cupertino and in most of the valley than those in that luxury tier (think over $3 or $4 million for luxury tier in this city).
The last few months have had some ups and downs in pricing, but most segments of the Cupertino real estate market have seen an overall uptick since last year, even after a bit of recent price cooling. The luxury market in Cupertino had a steep rise at the start of the year, but it appears to have peaked. What if we look back more than a year? Combining the quartiles, it seems that there’s been more up than down, though buyers will be happy to see the current trend is pointing down.
The idea of buying a home, especially a first one, is both exhilarating and overwhelming. Where do you begin if you want to buy a home in 2018? If you want to purchase real estate in Silicon Valley before the year is over, you’ll need to get a number of things in order, including hiring professionals to help you.
Purchasing now, in this multiple offer market requires strong credit, a healthy down payment with set aside for reserves and improvements after closing, time and energy, and no small amount of courage. Looking halfheartedly means you will see properties, but not buy. After the down payment, probably the most important element you’ll need to have is commitment, and further, you’ll need a strong team of professionals to assist you. Let’s talk about a solid home buying strategy. Continue reading
My Cambrian area of San Jose Real Estate Report was recently published with the updated numbers from the closed sales last month for this part of San Jose (95124 and 95118 with a little of 95008 too). Please click on the link above to see much more information there.
Want to learn more about Cambrian Park real estate, the Cambrian district, Cambrian neighborhoods, school districts and zip codes? Please also see this article: Cambrian Park: Good Schools, Low Crime, Close to Los Gatos and Campbell. Cambrian neighborhoods can be located at the menu bar: Neighborhoods –> San Jose (all areas) –> Cambrian Park (SJ).
Be sure to read to the end to see the live Altos charts too – they are near the end of the article so please keep reading into the next page!
Cambrian single family homes trends at a glance
Sales and turnover are fast and steady, and the sales to list price has remained high, over 110% for many months now. Prices have been slipping fairly steadily since March / April. Usually I only show this month and the one before, but I’ll display 3 months’ of data this time so it’s more clear. Interesting, though, that the sale price to list price ratio is still so high.
Trends at a Glance
|Trends At a Glance||Jun 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,312,500 (-6.0%)||$1,396,000||$1,101,000 (+19.2%)|
|Average Price||$1,385,810 (-2.8%)||$1,425,020||$1,117,310 (+24.0%)|
|No. of Sales||58 (-19.4%)||72||64 (-9.4%)|
|Pending||52 (-3.7%)||54||72 (-27.8%)|
|Active||49 (0.0%)||49||40 (+22.5%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||111.2% (-2.0%)||113.4%||108.5% (+2.5%)|
|Days on Market||12 (+16.3%)||10||12 (+2.8%)|
|Days of Inventory||25 (+20.0%)||20||18 (+35.2%)|
And the chart from last month:
|Trends At a Glance||May 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,396,000 (-2.4%)||$1,430,000||$1,100,000 (+26.9%)|
|Average Price||$1,425,020 (-2.1%)||$1,456,070||$1,103,120 (+29.2%)|
|No. of Sales||72 (+10.8%)||65||57 (+26.3%)|
|Pending||54 (-3.6%)||56||56 (-3.6%)|
|Active||49 (+44.1%)||34||31 (+58.1%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||113.4% (-2.1%)||115.9%||105.8% (+7.2%)|
|Days on Market||10 (+13.4%)||9||13 (-21.7%)|
|Days of Inventory||20 (+34.6%)||15||16 (+25.1%)|
And the chart from last month:
|Trends At a Glance||Apr 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,430,000 (+3.6%)||$1,380,000||$1,027,440 (+39.2%)|
|Average Price||$1,456,070 (+5.2%)||$1,384,410||$1,082,250 (+34.5%)|
|No. of Sales||65 (+18.2%)||55||72 (-9.7%)|
|Pending||56 (0.0%)||56||45 (+24.4%)|
|Active||34 (+126.7%)||15||34 (0.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||115.9% (-0.7%)||116.7%||106.5% (+8.8%)|
|Days on Market||9 (+10.8%)||8||9 (+3.6%)|
|Days of Inventory||15 (+85.4%)||8||14 (+10.8%)|
Generally speaking it is still a hot seller’s market and great time to sell a Cambrian home.
The condo and townhouse real estate market for San Jose 95124 & 95118
Willow Glen is perhaps the most charming residential area of the city of San Jose with its old style architecture, tree lined streets and quaint downtown area on Lincoln Avenue and nearby. For folks working in downtown San Jose, the Willow Glen area (roughly the same as 95125 zip code, though a bit of 95124 is included also) is extremely convenient.
The real estate market in Willow Glen is leveling off or flattening, just like the most of the valley. My sense is that this is a seasonal fluctuation. Last year, the housing market did not follow the regular pattern – but this year, perhaps we are settling back into exactly that.
Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report with all of the numbers, stats and trends from the closed sales of houses for last month. Further down in this article you’ll find the Altos Research charts as well.
Willow Glen Market Trends
|Trends At a Glance||Jun 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,464,500 (-8.9%)||$1,607,500||$1,300,000 (+12.7%)|
|Average Price||$1,565,640 (-10.5%)||$1,749,340||$1,359,430 (+15.2%)|
|No. of Sales||54 (-18.2%)||66||85 (-36.5%)|
|Pending||46 (-16.4%)||55||50 (-8.0%)|
|Active||57 (+7.5%)||53||37 (+54.1%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||105.0% (-4.7%)||110.2%||105.1% (-0.1%)|
|Days on Market||14 (+14.7%)||13||16 (-7.9%)|
|Days of Inventory||31 (+27.1%)||24||13 (+142.5%)|
And last month:
|Trends At a Glance||May 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,607,500 (-2.6%)||$1,650,000||$1,310,000 (+22.7%)|
|Average Price||$1,749,340 (-0.9%)||$1,765,470||$1,412,440 (+23.9%)|
|No. of Sales||66 (+4.8%)||63||79 (-16.5%)|
|Pending||55 (-1.8%)||56||70 (-21.4%)|
|Active||53 (+47.2%)||36||51 (+3.9%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||110.2% (+0.7%)||109.4%||103.9% (+6.0%)|
|Days on Market||13 (-17.0%)||15||17 (-25.7%)|
|Days of Inventory||24 (+45.4%)||17||19 (+24.4%)|
And next, of Willow Glen condos:
When it’s a hot seller’s market, like it is right now in Silicon Valley, it is challenging to be a home buyer. That means it’s also hard to be a buyer’s agent, since it may require writing many, many offers (and a lot of time and energy) before the clients get into contract. Since Realtors are usually only paid when a property closes, that means it’s not too hard to go broke if a real estate professional focuses a lot of time with buyers. In other words, in a market like this, most agents would prefer to work with sellers rather than buyers, because it’s more likely that they’ll make a living.
What can you do to increase the odds of finding a great Realtor who will take you seriously, work with you and for you, and give it a good effort even if it’s an uphill battle? First, let’s understand what a real estate licensee is looking for a client – at least in most cases. Usually, the savvy agent doesn’t want to waste time with people who are not serious, not ready, or who will not be loyal. The smart Realtor knows that without these three things, it’s unlikely that they will be able to sell that person a home, or at least not in a reasonable period of time.
Serious home buyers:
Only about half of all home buyers will likely buy in the year they think they might, so it’s important for real estate professionals to try to make sure that they don’t spend months on someone only to have him or her remain permanent renters. The agent must qualify the client to make sure it’s worth the risk of spending time with him or her.
Clues that the buyer isn’t serious include these:
(1) Comments like “I may have to look at homes for a year or two” or “I may need to write a hundred offers to get the right deal” or “I’m in no rush” indicate that this isn’t a big priority for the buyer (so maybe it shouldn’t be for the agent, either). This buyer is able, ready and probably also loyal – but not serious. Some, though, will clarify with a time frame and this is a game changer. “My lease is up in July, so ideally, I’d like to get into contract in March, close in April and move in May. But if I find the right house sooner, I’ll buy sooner.” That works!
(2) If there are two decision makers, having only one do most of the house hunting and the other showing up at distant intervals often indicates that it’s a priority for one but not both. Sometimes that’s not the case, but it is a red flag. Both need to be serious. Continue reading
Like most of Santa Clara County, the wild appreciation of the last 5 to 6 years in Blossom Valley seems to now be slowing, and maybe flattening. It is possible that we have hit the “peak of the market”, but it’s also possible that this is simply a seasonal pattern. Often in late spring to early summer, we see inventory levels rise while buyers pull back. This can cause home sale prices to quite appreciating, and in some years, prices decline just a little bit. In 2017, it seemed that the normal patterns simply broke, as late in the year – November and December – buying was at a feverish pitch normally reserved for March.
About Blossom Valley
The Blossom Valley area of San Jose is on the south end of the city and covers the 95123 and 95136 zip codes. For our MLS, it’s “area 12.” A more affordable section of Silicon Valley, Blossom Valley has much to offer in addition to more reasonable housing prices. Many areas enjoy views of the Santa Teresa Foothills or the Communications Hill knolls or even the coastal foothills in the distance, as with the photo below. One corner of it sits alongside beautiful Almaden Lake, too. One corner is located at the crossroads of Highways 85 and 87, making it an easy commute destination for those working in downtown San Jose. And there’s an abundance of shopping opportunities.
Much more could be written, but let’s now instead turn to the real estate market there.
First, “live,” automatically updating Altos Charts for San Jose 95123 and 95136 and single family homes (houses and duet homes). These use list prices, not sales prices.
The median list price of both 95123 and 95136, all prices, single family homes (houses and duet homes, if there are any).
Next, the median list price for just the San Jose 95123 area of Blossom Valley, and separated by price quartile:
And next, the median list price of just San Jose 95136 by price quartile:
How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a hot “seller’s market” overall. But look closer and you can see that in the Almaden Valley housing market there are clear market micro-climates. Prices are better for sellers, while buyers struggle with higher prices and less homes to choose from. Recently we have seen a slight cooling, too – very welcome for Almaden home buyers.
Almaden Valley Housing Market: Inventory of Houses for Sale
Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory. What’s happening?
First, let’s see what “usually” happens in the 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale. Here’s a look at the last 10 years (all available history), care of Altos Research – you can see that it’s been rising since January 1st, but it’s a proverbial drop in the bucket:
Here you can see that inventory has regular peaks and dips. Inventory tends to rise early each year and peak in mid to late summer. After the peak is a decline through autumn and winter with the lowest point in the coldest part of the year before turning around again before spring.
Now let’s look up close at just the last 3 years. Again, inventory IS rising, so it’s betting a little easier for buyers, but still difficult compared to the last 3 years.
As usual, our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later. Right now we are still in “rising inventory” mode in Almaden, so the market should be softening a little. Also, we are hearing of “buyer fatigue”, so in many cases there may be fewer offers than earlier in the spring. Continue reading
Buying a home in Silicon Valley is seldom easy, but right now, it’s nearly impossible with Santa Clara County’s critically low housing inventory. With slightly rising interest rates getting folks off the fence and strong job growth in the San Jose area – especially since Google announced its expansion in downtown, there are many more home buyers than home sellers. While this isn’t unusual, the severity of the problem certainly is extreme. How bad is it? Here’s a visual cue dating from January 2001 to March 2018 which indicates that this month’s inventory of single family homes for sale in Santa Clara County is the lowest we’ve had for March since 2001 (that’s as far back as I can get the data from MLS Listings). I’ve been selling homes for 25 years and have never seen it so dire.
This is sort of like “inventory limbo” – how low can you go? To me, this is uncharted territory for our region.
I am really wondering if other cities around the world have had this kind of inventory crisis in the past, and if so, what happened to pull them out of it. Obviously, we need more inventory, and that will mean either more new construction, incentives for current owners to sell, an easier way for people to commute long distances to work, or some combination of the three.
How does this impact you?
Many long time residents may recall that we have had a shortage for a few years here. In January 2012, I wrote about it here: Why is it so hard to buy Silicon Valley real estate right now? Compared to the recession that had just ended, inventory was low – I can look back now and think “wow, we had no right to complain! We had a lot more inventory then as we do now!” What also happened is that with the restricted inventory, home prices rose. A lot.
If you are a renter and want to be a home buyer, you now have two things going against you: rising interest rates and rising home prices (due to strong demand and critically low supply of homes to buy). If you wait a year, there’s a good chance that you will lose quite a lot of buying power as interest rates continue to go up and home prices do, too. Please check out my article on rates: How will rising interest rates impact your home buying power? Super low inventories tend to cause rapid price appreciation, and if you aren’t careful you could be priced out of the market (either because of home prices or because of those rising interest rates).
Normally, I’d be saying “take heart, buyers, inventory usually starts to rise after the SuperBowl” or “inventory rises after Valentine’s Day” or “we’ll see more homes coming on the market in March”. Well, it just hasn’t happened to any kind of significant degree.
If you are a seller, this is great news for you as it’s very likely that your equity will be increasing with the tight inventory. Buyer demand is good and interest rates are still very tolerable. It is hard if you want to sell and buy something else, but if you are down-sizing, you may be able to capitalize by purchasing all cash.
If you are a buyer, it’s important to realize that these days, most homes are selling with no contingencies of any kind (loan, appraisal, inspection). Purchasing a condo, townhome, or house is not for the faint of heart! Being not just pre-approved, but having an underwriter’s approval subject only to the ratified contract, a preliminary title report, and a satisfactory appraisal will put you into a better position. Cash is king, of course, so being able to absorb any appraisal shortfall is crucial. However, don’t let the all cash buyers scare you as some of them over estimate the value of cash. Most sellers will wait a few extra days if it means making more money on the sale.
The historic Naglee Park Home Tour in San Jose will take place on Saturday April 21, 2018 from 10am to 4pm. Sponsored by the San Jose Woman’s Club, this is the seventh year of the annual tour. This year, proceeds go towards the renovation of the Women’s Club 1929 Spanish Revival Clubhouse.
Tours include access to seven homes along two adjacent blocks in Naglee Park, and shows off both their lovely living quarters and gardens. Visitors have the option of pre-ordering a lunch box, and wine and refreshments will be available at the Refreshment Garden. The tour also features a lecture and open-air market.
For tickets and information: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sjwc-naglee-park-vintage-home-tour-tickets-42695715033
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Willow Glen is one of the most charming areas of San Jose, consisting of many older homes which feature lovely, classic architecture. Most Silicon Valley home buyers treasure the Willow Glen charm and ambiance, but many are seeking newer homes. A fabulous option is “The Willows“.
KB Homes built “The Willows” in 1999 to 2000. It is tucked away at the southernmost tip of Willow Glen, off of Foxworthy Avenue & close to Almaden Expressway, but only about 2.5 to 3 miles from all the action on Lincoln Avenue.
The tree-lined streets are built in something of a loop shape with Rubino Circle being the main access or loop road. Situated on the inner part of the loop are homes with smaller lots that are a little more affordable. The outer part of the circle is built with slightly larger homes on larger lots (but none of the lots are “big”). Sidewalks with soft curbs at the corners accompany the streets and make for a pedestrian-friendly, bike, wheelchair or stroller friendly area. Visit in the early evenings and you will see children and adults walking, strolling, taking dogs for a walk etc. – always a good sign! Because the neighborhood is a bit like an oversized cul-de-sac (no through traffic), it is very quiet in terms of traffic. The area has large street lights, too, making for a safe feeling community.