statistics

The Sunnyvale real estate market has been trending upward for many months until recently, when we’ve been seeing a flattening of the Silicon Valley real estate market overall. In general, houses in Sunnyvale are selling for about a million six hundred thousand dollars – if they aren’t too small or in terrible shape (or conversely palatial or newly built or remodeled). Let’s begin with single family homes. The median list price for homes in Sunnyvale CA – all zip codes combined – interestingly, the high end homes are doing the best! (Live charts from Altos Research, which uses LIST prices, not sale prices.)

Sunnyvale real estate market: Altos Research, median list prices by quartile

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

What about the numbers for the closed sales? Now let’s have a look at the Sunnyvale CA RE Report for last month’s trends and statistics (click on link to get the full Sunnyvale real estate market report):

Trends At a Glance Jul 2017 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,730,000 (-4.9%) $1,820,000 $1,500,000 (+15.3%)
Average Price $1,654,260 (-7.8%) $1,794,320 $1,473,990 (+12.2%)
No. of Sales 59 (-4.8%) 62 55 (+7.3%)
Pending 40 (-23.1%) 52 45 (-11.1%)
Active 28 (+64.7%) 17 61 (-54.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 111.0% (-1.8%) 113.1% 107.0% (+3.7%)
Days on Market 18 (+23.6%) 15 16 (+12.5%)
Days of Inventory 14 (+79.0%) 8 33 (-57.2%)

What about the Sunnyvale condo and townhome market?

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How’s the Cupertino real estate market?

Cupertino - view from Ridge Vineyards

Cupertino – view from Ridge Vineyards

The real estate market in Silicon Valley can sometimes be a little quirky, so I like to approach this question from a few angles. In this article I’ll make use of  my charts from Altos Research, which uses listing data (not solds) and is automatically updated every week and also monthly reports from my RE Report subscription. Also I’ll periodically update it with info from the MLS that I have crunched myself or anecdotal stories from those of us “in the trenches.” The article is a bit long but I think much more comprehensive giving the multiple methods of answering the question of how the Cupertino real estate market is faring.

Cupertino median list price of houses by price quartile

Often the real estate market in any given city is very different between the most expensive homes and the most affordable ones. While many Cupertino home buyers are looking for a short commute, great public schools or strong resale value, some seek a luxury property with a view in the Cupertino hills (either off of Montevina Road by Ridge Vineyards or in other lower foothills).
Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The last few months have had some ups and downs in pricing, but most segments of the Cupertino real estate market have seen an overall uptick since last year. The luxury market in Cupertino had some calming over summer, but is back on the rise again. What if we look back more than a year? Combining the quartiles, it seems that there’s been more up than down.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

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The Santa Clara County real estate statistics for Single Family Homes

 Read the full report for houses and duet homes in Santa Clara County here (You can also access the stats for San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties from here!)

Prices are up year over year after a prolonged, unrelenting sellers market. Available inventory is less than half that of a year ago, while sales remain consistent. This is bad news for buyers – the market conditions can’t balance out without inventory to meet the demand!

Trends At a Glance Aug 2017 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,151,000 (-2.0%) $1,175,000 $980,000 (+17.4%)
Average Price $1,423,440 (+1.0%) $1,409,380 $1,260,500 (+12.9%)
No. of Sales 986 (-2.9%) 1,015 917 (+7.5%)
Pending 947 (+1.7%) 931 1,028 (-7.9%)
Active 630 (-22.8%) 816 1,626 (-61.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 106.4% (+0.8%) 105.5% 101.4% (+4.9%)
Days on Market 19 (-5.2%) 20 29 (-33.9%)
Days of Inventory 19 (-20.5%) 24 53 (-64.0%)

And the numbers from last month for comparison:

Trends At a Glance Jul 2017 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,175,000 (-0.4%) $1,180,000 $1,038,750 (+13.1%)
Average Price $1,409,380 (-2.4%) $1,444,410 $1,273,720 (+10.7%)
No. of Sales 1,015 (-15.9%) 1,207 918 (+10.6%)
Pending 931 (-13.9%) 1,081 959 (-2.9%)
Active 816 (-4.4%) 854 1,747 (-53.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.5% (-0.4%) 105.9% 102.1% (+3.3%)
Days on Market 20 (+10.6%) 18 23 (-13.2%)
Days of Inventory 24 (+17.5%) 21 57 (-57.8%)

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Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow’s the real estate market in Morgan Hill? This article will include data, trends and statistics for both houses and condominiums/townhouses.

For the single family home segment in this “south county” town, prices are mostly consistent year over year and month over month. The sale price to list price ratio has been hovering mostly between 98% and 100% for months. The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So while most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 110%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market. Below is a chart with basic info, but to see more information, you may click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill.

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Willow Glen in San JoseWillow Glen is perhaps the most charming residential area of the city of San Jose with its old style architecture, tree lined streets and quaint downtown area on Lincoln Avenue and nearby. For folks working in downtown San Jose, the Willow Glen area (roughly the same as 95125 zip code, though a bit of 95124 is included also) is extremely convenient. Inventory has fallen slightly since last year. Though close to the same number of homes are selling, active listings are close to 25% what they were a year ago. Properties continually sell over list price quickly, in under a month. Willow Glen remains in a sellers market.

Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report with all of the numbers, stats and trends from the closed sales of houses for last month. Further down in this article you’ll find the Altos Research charts as well.

Things are slightly hotter since last month. Even then, a little cooling won’t take us out of a deep sellers market, but it would ease conditions slightly for long-term buyers.

And next, of Willow Glen condos:

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How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.

First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.

The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”

(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)

Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts.

And for comparison, here’s the chart from last month:

This month shows a very stable market with minute warming since last month. The overall 1.48 MOI is a hot sellers market showing active Summer conditions. By comparing across school districts you can see how different each area’s individual market can be. The overall MOI for different schools this month ranges from 0.25 to 1.875. Small levels of inventory can create big data swings and can make for less accurate charts. Nonetheless, we can still spot market trends if we know where to look.

 

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Another Silicon Valley real estate market bubble? (Image of bubbles in a hot tub.)Hearing the real estate market “war stories” about dozens of offers on Silicon Valley properties and overbids ranging from 20 – 55% had convinced me that we were in a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble back in early 2013. At least, this is what a bubble looks like, sounds like, feels like, and acts like.   At the time I thought, “how much longer could this continue?”  Four years and counting – that is the answer.

I tell my family and friends that we are in “crazyland” as buyers purchase homes with no contingencies of any kind, houses sell in 10 days or less (if everything is right, which seems to be the case 75% of the time), and those same properties are selling at well over list price and with much more than 20% down.

The absorption rate, or months of inventory: it is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble?

What do the numbers say?  I just logged into MLSListings.com and see that right now, in all of Santa Clara County there are 817 single family homes (houses + duet or attached single family homes).  The pending and contingent homes measure 1074, far more! That ratio alone suggests that the market is in overdrive.  In the last 30 days, 950 single family  homes have sold & closed escrow.  So the months of inventory is 817 divided by 950 = .86 of a month of inventory, so about 3.5 weeks of inventory. (When I originally blogged about the potential bubble, it was 1.8 months of inventory.)

In other words, things are flying off the shelves. And they have been, with only a few minor blips here and there, since early 2012. Does that sound like a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble to you – a crazy strong seller’s market lasting 4.5 years?  I could be wrong, but I think of bubbles as being something fairly swift, not a multi year trend.

Homes are selling faster than new ones are coming onto the market!

It’s one thing to say that one city, town, or school district has a very low months of inventory (or high absorption rate).  It is another altogether to say an entire county is that low.  This is a major trend, not a tiny blip in the statistics.

How soon we forget that after the outrageously deep seller’s market in 2000, we had a steep drop in 2001.  Or that all the crazy buying in the San Jose area (and other places) in 2005-06, combined with bad financial regulations, lead to the crash of 2007-2009. But perhaps that enormous “correction”, in which Santa Clara County lost about 50% of its value on average, had more room to recover than we initially realized. Jobs keep flowing in, and housing starts are not keeping up. Supply and demand – the age old equation. That would seem to refute the idea that this is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble. Perhaps low inventory and strong demand are what we should be expecting going forward. Continue reading

How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a hot “seller’s market” overall.  But look closer and you can see there are clear market micro-climates.  Prices are better for sellers, while buyers struggle with higher prices and less homes to choose from.

Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale

Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory. What’s happening?

First, let’s see what “usually” happens in the 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale. Here’s a look at the last 10 years (all available history), care of Altos Research:

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Here you can see that inventory has regular peaks and dips. Inventory tends to rise early each year and peak in mid to late summer. After the peak is a decline through autumn and winter with the lowest point in the coldest part of the year before turning around again before spring.

Now let’s look up close at just the last 3 years.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

As usual, our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later – at least, that happened until 2017. This year, inventory stayed up longer than usual, not going as low in winter as expected, but instead fell later, when the market is usually heating up! Rather than rising to a peak again in summer, it looks like inventory is continuing to drop or at least remain extraordinarily low. We have hit the bottom (hopefully), but inventory won’t necessarily increase as the year progresses, if seasonal trends are followed. Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.

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Door knockerToday is the first of November. For many Santa Clara County home buyers and sellers, it marks the beginning of “the holiday season” and the end of the home buying & selling season. But is that always the case?

In my real estate practice (San Jose, Los Gatos and all over the county), normally I do have sales activity in November and December. Many times, clients want to be in their new home before the December holidays and the new year. Sometimes it’s for tax reasons. Other times it’s a late year relocation. Once in awhile, someone just wants Christmas, Hanukkah or some other major date in the new home.

This morning I logged onto MLS Listings to see the numbers of sales of single family homes in the month of November over the last dozen years or so to see what we could learn about November home sales in Santa Clara County. We don’t have a crystal ball for November 2014, but if annual patterns hold true again, around 800 homes are likely to sell this month. The lowest number in recent history was 510, and that was during the recession.  Here, then, are the counts for houses sold in SCC in the last 17 years (as far back as I could go on the MLS):

2013 – 762

2012 – 810

2011 – 834

2010 -856

2009 – 853

2008 – 672

2007 – 510

2006 – 853

2005 – 992

2004 – 1146

2003 – 1136

2002 – 933

2001 – 996

2000 – 926

1999 – 1051

1998 – 1080

People still need to buy houses, for whatever reason it may be. The statistics tell us that they continue to do so here in November.  If you are thinking of selling your Silicon Valley home, don’t believe that you must wait until the new year.  A good, well priced, well presented, and well marketed home really can sell here at any time of year.  Unlike the northeast, we do not have terrible weather that makes showings difficult or unappealing.   If you’re interested in a fall or winter home sale, please call or email me.  We can discuss it, your home’s pricing and everything else relevant to give you good information on which to base your decision.

 

Related reading:  Holiday Home Selling: Good or Bad Idea?

  1. 2 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 841 sq ft
    Lot size: 901 sqft
  2. 4 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 2,305 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,227 sqft
  3. 1 bed, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,415 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,224 sqft
  4. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,308 sq ft
    Lot size: 1,080 sqft
  5. 1 bed, 2 baths
    Home size: 824 sq ft
    Lot size: 618 sqft
  6. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,584 sq ft
    Lot size: 5.07 ac
  7. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,322 sq ft
    Lot size: 696 sqft
  8. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,405 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,464 sqft
  9. 3 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,369 sq ft
  10. 3 beds, 3 baths
    Home size: 1,630 sq ft
    Lot size: 2,700 sqft

See all Real estate in the city of San Jose.
(all data current as of 9/22/2017)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Gilroy Garlic FestivalGilroy is a scenic area well known for wineries, farmland and fruit stands.  More than anything,  it’s most iconic produce is garlic, which is celebrated late each July with the annual Garlic Festival, which began yesterday and continues through the weekend.  If you’ve never been, I highly recommend it!  Go early and bring your appetite!  There’s more than just eating to be enjoyed, but eating is surely high up on the list of priorities!  Click on the link above to see what’s on the schedule this weekend.  (Be sure to wear sunscreen and a hat. It is very hot…so drink a lot of water…)

In the days and weeks leading up to this fun food festival, the scent of garlic fills the early morning air and blows north along the coastal foothills so that those of us in Silicon Valley get a healthy nose full when grabbing our morning paper off the driveway. This has been my experience since I was a small child and I’m happy that all the progress of the last 40 or 50 years hasn’t changed the smell of garlic heralding mid-summer.

Garlic is king in Gilroy, but it’s not all that’s happening there

A nice easy, and fairly fast trip by car will bring you to South County and to Gilroy.  It’s a wonderful day trip to explore the backyard of Silicon Valley, or better, take a whole weekend to get to know the area.  There’s a nice downtown area where you can do some shopping and dining.  Go out a bit and there are a number of fabulous wineries to check out.  And lest we forget, Gilroy is a local epicenter of bargain shopping.

At the intersection of highways 101 and 152, the Gilroy Premium Outlet Mall is found.  Go with the intention of spending money, because resistance is futile once you park your car.  This afternoon I spent a few hours there with my daughter and we found some especially good pricing on clothes – perhaps because of the Garlic Festival and the anticipated crowds.

Many will attest that cars are found for a better price there, too.

But wait, there’s more!  Gilroy is also home to a charming family amusement park (aimed at younger kids), Gilroy Gardens.   Continue reading

Translation

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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
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