The Sunnyvale real estate market has been trending upward for many months. In general, houses in Sunnyvale are selling for about one million six hundred thousand dollars – if they aren’t too small or in terrible shape (or conversely palatial or newly built or remodeled). Let’s begin with single family homes. The median list price for homes in Sunnyvale CA – all zip codes combined – interestingly, the high end homes are doing the best! (Live charts from Altos Research, which uses LIST prices, not sale prices.)
Sunnyvale real estate market: Altos Research, median list prices by quartile
What about the numbers for the closed sales? Now let’s have a look at the Sunnyvale CA RE Report for last month’s trends and statistics (click on link to get the full Sunnyvale real estate market report):
|Trends At a Glance||Jan 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,995,000 (+0.5%)||$1,985,000||$1,400,000 (+42.5%)|
|Average Price||$1,919,180 (+4.0%)||$1,845,050||$1,420,580 (+35.1%)|
|No. of Sales||31 (-18.4%)||38||19 (+63.2%)|
|Pending||25 (-10.7%)||28||10 (+150.0%)|
|Active||14 (+180.0%)||5||28 (-50.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||123.5% (+3.2%)||119.7%||104.1% (+18.6%)|
|Days on Market||9 (-6.6%)||10||20 (-53.4%)|
|Days of Inventory||14 (+243.2%)||4||44 (-69.4%)|
And from last month for comparison:
|Trends At a Glance||Dec 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,985,000 (+2.7%)||$1,932,500||$1,467,500 (+35.3%)|
|Average Price||$1,845,050 (-3.9%)||$1,919,420||$1,473,040 (+25.3%)|
|No. of Sales||38 (-9.5%)||42||44 (-13.6%)|
|Pending||28 (-17.6%)||34||18 (+55.6%)|
|Active||5 (-68.8%)||16||17 (-70.6%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||119.7% (0.0%)||119.8%||105.3% (+13.7%)|
|Days on Market||10 (-7.3%)||11||23 (-56.3%)|
|Days of Inventory||4 (-64.3%)||11||12 (-65.9%)|
Yeowch! The January market’s beyond hot – it’s scorching! Moving from a steady 119% over list price, the average sale has risen to a whooping 123.5% of listed! Properties are still flying off the shelves at 9 days on market.
What about the Sunnyvale condo and townhome market?
The Santa Clara County real estate statistics for Single Family Homes
Read the full report for houses and duet homes in Santa Clara County here (You can also access the stats for San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties from here!)
Prices are up year-over-year due to a prolonged, unrelenting sellers market. Available inventory is less than half of what it was a year ago, while sales remain consistent. This is bad news for buyers – the market conditions can’t balance out without inventory to meet the demand!
|Trends At a Glance||Jan 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,163,000 (-10.1%)||$1,293,690||$929,000 (+25.2%)|
|Average Price||$1,439,310 (-7.5%)||$1,556,330||$1,259,470 (+14.3%)|
|No. of Sales||450 (-36.1%)||704||488 (-7.8%)|
|Pending||581 (+12.8%)||515||533 (+9.0%)|
|Active||376 (+38.7%)||271||762 (-50.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||108.9% (-0.4%)||109.3%||101.2% (+7.6%)|
|Days on Market||21 (+2.0%)||21||37 (-43.0%)|
|Days of Inventory||25 (+117.1%)||12||47 (-46.5%)|
And the numbers from last month for comparison:
|Trends At a Glance||Dec 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,293,690 (+0.4%)||$1,288,500||$960,000 (+34.8%)|
|Average Price||$1,556,330 (-3.9%)||$1,619,100||$1,186,120 (+31.2%)|
|No. of Sales||704 (-11.1%)||792||746 (-5.6%)|
|Pending||515 (-32.1%)||758||544 (-5.3%)|
|Active||271 (-41.2%)||461||694 (-61.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||109.3% (+0.8%)||108.5%||101.2% (+8.0%)|
|Days on Market||21 (-3.5%)||22||34 (-39.3%)|
|Days of Inventory||12 (-31.6%)||17||28 (-58.6%)|
How’s the Cupertino real estate market?
The real estate market in Silicon Valley can sometimes be a little quirky, so I like to approach this question from a few angles. In this article I’ll make use of my charts from Altos Research, which uses listing data (not solds) and is automatically updated every week and also monthly reports from my RE Report subscription. Also I’ll periodically update it with info from the MLS that I have crunched myself or anecdotal stories from those of us “in the trenches.” The article is a bit long but I think much more comprehensive giving the multiple methods of answering the question of how the Cupertino real estate market is faring.
Cupertino median list price of houses by price quartile
Often the real estate market in any given city is very different between the most expensive homes and the most affordable ones. While many Cupertino home buyers are looking for a short commute, great public schools or strong resale value, some seek a luxury property with a view in the Cupertino hills (either off of Montevina Road by Ridge Vineyards or in other lower foothills).
The last few months have had some ups and downs in pricing, but most segments of the Cupertino real estate market have seen an overall uptick since last year. The luxury market in Cupertino had some calming over summer, but is back on the rise again. What if we look back more than a year? Combining the quartiles, it seems that there’s been more up than down.
How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?
This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.
First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.
The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”
(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)
Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts.
And for comparison, here’s the chart from last month:
This month shows a the charts look bizarre. The overall MOI has lept up to 6, which is usually considered a balanced market or even a buyer’s market. But is that really the case here? Well, the months of inventory are determined by dividing the number of listings active by the number of sales. If you look at where the listings are and compare it to the sales, we can tell that while the highest price point, $5+ million, is a very slow, buyer’s market, which is common, the minute inventory which exists across other price points are selling as well as past months. Because the inventory across other price points is so small, this month’s data is hard to calculate, so this is when it is best to look a little farther back for general pricing. As always, each property is unique, so this chart is just a guide and finding the right price to list or offer requires closer inspection and is best done with the help of a qualified agent.
While the chart this month may not have the most helpful data for analysis, by comparing across school districts you can still see how different each area’s individual market can be. The overall MOI for different school districts this month ranges from 10, where all of the $5+ properties are, to indetermineable, where there was no inventory and one sale in the Fremont Union district. Small levels of inventory can create big data swings and make for less accurate charts, nevertheless, we can still spot trends if we know where to look.
Hearing the real estate market “war stories” about dozens of offers on Silicon Valley properties and overbids ranging from 20 – 55% had convinced me that we were in a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble back in early 2013. At least, this is what a bubble looks like, sounds like, feels like, and acts like. At the time I thought, “how much longer could this continue?” Four years and counting – that is the answer.
I tell my family and friends that we are in “crazyland” as buyers purchase homes with no contingencies of any kind, houses sell in 10 days or less (if everything is right, which seems to be the case 75% of the time), and those same properties are selling at well over list price and with much more than 20% down.
The absorption rate, or months of inventory: it is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble?
What do the numbers say? I just logged into MLSListings.com and see that right now, in all of Santa Clara County there are 817 single family homes (houses + duet or attached single family homes). The pending and contingent homes measure 1074, far more! That ratio alone suggests that the market is in overdrive. In the last 30 days, 950 single family homes have sold & closed escrow. So the months of inventory is 817 divided by 950 = .86 of a month of inventory, so about 3.5 weeks of inventory. (When I originally blogged about the potential bubble, it was 1.8 months of inventory.)
In other words, things are flying off the shelves. And they have been, with only a few minor blips here and there, since early 2012. Does that sound like a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble to you – a crazy strong seller’s market lasting 4.5 years? I could be wrong, but I think of bubbles as being something fairly swift, not a multi year trend.
Homes are selling faster than new ones are coming onto the market!
It’s one thing to say that one city, town, or school district has a very low months of inventory (or high absorption rate). It is another altogether to say an entire county is that low. This is a major trend, not a tiny blip in the statistics.
How soon we forget that after the outrageously deep seller’s market in 2000, we had a steep drop in 2001. Or that all the crazy buying in the San Jose area (and other places) in 2005-06, combined with bad financial regulations, lead to the crash of 2007-2009. But perhaps that enormous “correction”, in which Santa Clara County lost about 50% of its value on average, had more room to recover than we initially realized. Jobs keep flowing in, and housing starts are not keeping up. Supply and demand – the age old equation. That would seem to refute the idea that this is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble. Perhaps low inventory and strong demand are what we should be expecting going forward. Continue reading
How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a hot “seller’s market” overall. But look closer and you can see there are clear market micro-climates. Prices are better for sellers, while buyers struggle with higher prices and less homes to choose from.
Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale
Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory. What’s happening?
First, let’s see what “usually” happens in the 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale. Here’s a look at the last 10 years (all available history), care of Altos Research:
Here you can see that inventory has regular peaks and dips. Inventory tends to rise early each year and peak in mid to late summer. After the peak is a decline through autumn and winter with the lowest point in the coldest part of the year before turning around again before spring.
Now let’s look up close at just the last 3 years.
As usual, our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later – at least, that happened until 2017. This year, inventory stayed up longer than usual, not going as low in winter as expected, but instead fell later, when the market is usually heating up! Rather than rising to a peak again in summer, it looks like inventory is continuing to drop or at least remain extraordinarily low. We have hit the bottom (hopefully), but inventory won’t necessarily increase as the year progresses, if seasonal trends are followed. Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.
Today is the first of November. For many Santa Clara County home buyers and sellers, it marks the beginning of “the holiday season” and the end of the home buying & selling season. But is that always the case?
In my real estate practice (San Jose, Los Gatos and all over the county), normally I do have sales activity in November and December. Many times, clients want to be in their new home before the December holidays and the new year. Sometimes it’s for tax reasons. Other times it’s a late year relocation. Once in awhile, someone just wants Christmas, Hanukkah or some other major date in the new home.
This morning I logged onto MLS Listings to see the numbers of sales of single family homes in the month of November over the last dozen years or so to see what we could learn about November home sales in Santa Clara County. We don’t have a crystal ball for November 2014, but if annual patterns hold true again, around 800 homes are likely to sell this month. The lowest number in recent history was 510, and that was during the recession. Here, then, are the counts for houses sold in SCC in the last 17 years (as far back as I could go on the MLS):
2013 – 762
2012 – 810
2011 – 834
2009 – 853
2008 – 672
2007 – 510
2006 – 853
2005 – 992
2004 – 1146
2003 – 1136
2002 – 933
2001 – 996
2000 – 926
1999 – 1051
1998 – 1080
People still need to buy houses, for whatever reason it may be. The statistics tell us that they continue to do so here in November. If you are thinking of selling your Silicon Valley home, don’t believe that you must wait until the new year. A good, well priced, well presented, and well marketed home really can sell here at any time of year. Unlike the northeast, we do not have terrible weather that makes showings difficult or unappealing. If you’re interested in a fall or winter home sale, please call or email me. We can discuss it, your home’s pricing and everything else relevant to give you good information on which to base your decision.
Related reading: Holiday Home Selling: Good or Bad Idea?
$989,000 : 2839 Babe Ruth DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 2 baths
$2,150,000 : 1093 Di Napoli DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 2 baths
$229,000 : 5450 Monterey RD 73, SAN JOSE2 beds, 2 baths
$2,595,000 : 4035 Soelro CT, SAN JOSE5 beds, 6 baths
$2,195,000 : 3192 Landess AVE, SAN JOSE0 beds, 0 bath
$1,000,000 : 751 Emerson CT, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$679,000 : 78 McCreery AVE, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,099,999 : 5649 Holland LN, SAN JOSE4 beds, 2 baths
$135,000 : 3300 Narvaez AVE 182, SAN JOSE2 beds, 2 baths
$758,000 : 5760 Blossom AVE, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
See all Real estate in the city of San Jose.
(all data current as of 2/18/2018)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
Gilroy is a scenic area well known for wineries, farmland and fruit stands. More than anything, it’s most iconic produce is garlic, which is celebrated late each July with the annual Garlic Festival, which began yesterday and continues through the weekend. If you’ve never been, I highly recommend it! Go early and bring your appetite! There’s more than just eating to be enjoyed, but eating is surely high up on the list of priorities! Click on the link above to see what’s on the schedule this weekend. (Be sure to wear sunscreen and a hat. It is very hot…so drink a lot of water…)
In the days and weeks leading up to this fun food festival, the scent of garlic fills the early morning air and blows north along the coastal foothills so that those of us in Silicon Valley get a healthy nose full when grabbing our morning paper off the driveway. This has been my experience since I was a small child and I’m happy that all the progress of the last 40 or 50 years hasn’t changed the smell of garlic heralding mid-summer.
Garlic is king in Gilroy, but it’s not all that’s happening there
A nice easy, and fairly fast trip by car will bring you to South County and to Gilroy. It’s a wonderful day trip to explore the backyard of Silicon Valley, or better, take a whole weekend to get to know the area. There’s a nice downtown area where you can do some shopping and dining. Go out a bit and there are a number of fabulous wineries to check out. And lest we forget, Gilroy is a local epicenter of bargain shopping.
At the intersection of highways 101 and 152, the Gilroy Premium Outlet Mall is found. Go with the intention of spending money, because resistance is futile once you park your car. This afternoon I spent a few hours there with my daughter and we found some especially good pricing on clothes – perhaps because of the Garlic Festival and the anticipated crowds.
Many will attest that cars are found for a better price there, too.
Median List price for San Jose 95129
Median list price, all quartiles combined, going back about 7 years. Peak for pricing was in very late 2007.
Median list price for just the last 12 months:
Condominiums and townhouses in Santa Clara County have enjoyed rapid appreciation and almost perfectly steady improvement in the market in the last 18 months or so. Today we’ll take a snapshot view of it with a few graphs. First, let’s consider the average Days on Market (DOM) and the sale price to list price ratio for condos and townhouses in Santa Clara County.
The chart above shows some calming down in the Santa Clara County condo market. First, it appears that the sale price to list price ratio stopped its wild ascent and has reversed itself some in June 2013. But also, it seems that the days to sell leveled out (and stopped its decline). Just to check on the apparent trend, I went to MLSListings and ran the numbers for the closed sales just yesterday and today (July closings). The average sale price to list price was 106%, a tad lower than what we saw in June.
What about new inventory vs sold homes? In the chart below, we see that the gap between them widened in June: more inventory, fewer sales (of course the June sales were contracts ratified in May, in most cases). This also suggests a loosening in the condo market here. It’s not suddenly a buyer’s market, but perhaps we are seeing the beginning of a trend reversal? Have a look at the chart: Continue reading