How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?
This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.
First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.
The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”
(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)
Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts.
And for comparison, here’s the chart from last month:
This month the data is back to what’s been the norm as of late – a strong seller’s market with fairly low inventory. Just under 2 MOI is a hot market, but if you look at where the listings are and compare it to the sales you are able to see there is at least one big exception. We can tell that the highest price point, $5+ million, is a much slower buyer’s market, which is common, and the other price points are frequently even lower than the average. Because the inventory is so small, the data can be easily distorted, so it is helpful to look a little farther back for general trends and pricing. As always, each property is unique, so this chart is just a guide and finding the right price to list or offer requires closer inspection and is best done with the help of a qualified agent.
By comparing across school districts you can also see how different each area’s individual market can be. The overall MOI for different school districts this month ranges from 2.375 to 0.75. Small levels of inventory can create big data swings and make for less accurate charts, nevertheless, we can still spot trends if we know where to look.
How’s the real estate market in Morgan Hill? This article will include data, trends and statistics for both houses and condominiums/townhouses.
For the single family home segment in this “south county” town, prices are mostly consistent year over year and month over month. The sale price to list price ratio has been hovering mostly between 98% and 100% throughout 2017. Since December, this number has been creeping up above 100%. The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So while most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 110%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market. Below is a chart with basic info, but to see more information, you may click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill.
|Trends At a Glance||Mar 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,000,000 (+8.0%)||$926,000||$889,500 (+12.4%)|
|Average Price||$1,126,810 (+4.9%)||$1,073,880||$953,359 (+18.2%)|
|No. of Sales||33 (+32.0%)||25||47 (-29.8%)|
|Pending||70 (+37.3%)||51||45 (+55.6%)|
|Active||35 (-14.6%)||41||65 (-46.2%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||103.7% (+1.4%)||102.3%||99.5% (+4.2%)|
|Days on Market||24 (-5.3%)||25||36 (-34.5%)|
|Days of Inventory||32 (-28.1%)||44||41 (-23.3%)|
And the numbers from last month:
The Sunnyvale real estate market has been trending upward for many months. In general, houses in Sunnyvale are selling for about one million eight hundred thousand dollars – if they aren’t too small or in terrible shape (or conversely palatial or newly built or remodeled). Let’s begin with single family homes. The median list price for homes in Sunnyvale CA – all zip codes combined – interestingly, the high end homes are doing the best! (Live charts from Altos Research, which uses LIST prices, not sale prices.)
Sunnyvale real estate market: Altos Research, median list prices by quartile
What about the numbers for the closed sales? Now let’s have a look at the Sunnyvale CA RE Report for last month’s trends and statistics (click on link to get the full Sunnyvale real estate market report):
|Trends At a Glance||Mar 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$2,100,000 (+6.1%)||$1,980,000||$1,630,000 (+28.8%)|
|Average Price||$2,021,230 (+1.0%)||$2,001,490||$1,662,760 (+21.6%)|
|No. of Sales||47 (+67.9%)||28||41 (+14.6%)|
|Pending||52 (+62.5%)||32||47 (+10.6%)|
|Active||22 (+29.4%)||17||35 (-37.1%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||120.4% (-0.9%)||121.5%||111.7% (+7.8%)|
|Days on Market||10 (+1.5%)||9||11 (-10.8%)|
|Days of Inventory||14 (-14.3%)||16||26 (-45.2%)|
And from last month for comparison:
|Trends At a Glance||Feb 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,980,000 (-0.8%)||$1,995,000||$1,618,000 (+22.4%)|
|Average Price||$2,001,490 (+4.3%)||$1,919,180||$1,563,540 (+28.0%)|
|No. of Sales||28 (-9.7%)||31||23 (+21.7%)|
|Pending||32 (+28.0%)||25||25 (+28.0%)|
|Active||17 (+21.4%)||14||28 (-39.3%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||121.5% (-1.6%)||123.5%||109.7% (+10.8%)|
|Days on Market||9 (+2.6%)||9||14 (-32.0%)|
|Days of Inventory||16 (+21.0%)||14||33 (-50.1%)|
Yeowch! This market’s beyond hot – it’s scorching! The average sales haven’t cooled much since the last month with the average sales happening at 120.4% of list price. Properties are still flying off the shelves at 10 days on market.
What about the Sunnyvale condo and townhome market?
How’s the Cupertino real estate market?
The real estate market in Silicon Valley can sometimes be a little quirky, so I like to approach this question from a few angles. In this article I’ll make use of my charts from Altos Research, which uses listing data (not solds) and is automatically updated every week and also monthly reports from my RE Report subscription. Also I’ll periodically update it with info from the MLS that I have crunched myself or anecdotal stories from those of us “in the trenches.” The article is a bit long but I think much more comprehensive giving the multiple methods of answering the question of how the Cupertino real estate market is faring.
Cupertino median list price of houses by price quartile
Often the real estate market in any given city is very different between the most expensive homes and the most affordable ones. While many Cupertino home buyers are looking for a short commute, great public schools or strong resale value, some seek a luxury property with a view in the Cupertino hills (either off of Montevina Road by Ridge Vineyards or in other lower foothills).
The last few months have had some ups and downs in pricing, but most segments of the Cupertino real estate market have seen an overall uptick since last year, even after a bit of recent price cooling. The luxury market in Cupertino had a steep rise at the start of the year, but it appears to have peaked. What if we look back more than a year? Combining the quartiles, it seems that there’s been more up than down, though buyers will be happy to see the current trend is pointing down.
Willow Glen is perhaps the most charming residential area of the city of San Jose with its old style architecture, tree lined streets and quaint downtown area on Lincoln Avenue and nearby. For folks working in downtown San Jose, the Willow Glen area (roughly the same as 95125 zip code, though a bit of 95124 is included also) is extremely convenient. Inventory has fallen slightly since last year, but sales are remaining consistent. Properties continually sell regularly over list price quickly, in under a month. The Willow Glen real estate market remains very much a sellers market.
Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report with all of the numbers, stats and trends from the closed sales of houses for last month. Further down in this article you’ll find the Altos Research charts as well.
|Trends At a Glance||Mar 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,572,500 (-0.3%)||$1,578,000||$1,250,000 (+25.8%)|
|Average Price||$1,591,240 (-4.7%)||$1,670,170||$1,268,680 (+25.4%)|
|No. of Sales||68 (+134.5%)||29||49 (+38.8%)|
|Pending||61 (+10.9%)||55||55 (+10.9%)|
|Active||25 (-30.6%)||36||46 (-45.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||109.7% (-1.9%)||111.8%||102.9% (+6.7%)|
|Days on Market||21 (-5.4%)||22||22 (-3.6%)|
|Days of Inventory||11 (-67.1%)||34||28 (-60.8%)|
And the Willow Glen real estate market chart from last month for comparison:
|Trends At a Glance||Feb 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,578,000 (+2.6%)||$1,537,500||$1,242,000 (+27.1%)|
|Average Price||$1,670,170 (+8.1%)||$1,545,350||$1,330,000 (+25.6%)|
|No. of Sales||29 (+3.6%)||28||49 (-40.8%)|
|Pending||55 (+103.7%)||27||39 (+41.0%)|
|Active||36 (+44.0%)||25||39 (-7.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||111.8% (+6.4%)||105.0%||102.0% (+9.5%)|
|Days on Market||22 (-6.2%)||24||27 (-18.9%)|
|Days of Inventory||34 (+25.1%)||27||21 (+56.0%)|
Things are similar to last month. Willow Glen is still a hot, persistent sellers market that’s noticeably more competitive than a year ago.
And next, of Willow Glen condos:
The Santa Clara County real estate statistics for Single Family Homes
Read the full report for houses and duet homes in Santa Clara County here (You can also access the stats for San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties from here!)
Prices are up year-over-year due to a prolonged, unrelenting sellers market. Available inventory is less than half of what it was a year ago, while sales remain consistent. This is bad news for buyers – the market conditions can’t balance out without inventory to meet the demand!
|Trends At a Glance||Jan 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,163,000 (-10.1%)||$1,293,690||$929,000 (+25.2%)|
|Average Price||$1,439,310 (-7.5%)||$1,556,330||$1,259,470 (+14.3%)|
|No. of Sales||450 (-36.1%)||704||488 (-7.8%)|
|Pending||581 (+12.8%)||515||533 (+9.0%)|
|Active||376 (+38.7%)||271||762 (-50.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||108.9% (-0.4%)||109.3%||101.2% (+7.6%)|
|Days on Market||21 (+2.0%)||21||37 (-43.0%)|
|Days of Inventory||25 (+117.1%)||12||47 (-46.5%)|
And the numbers from last month for comparison:
|Trends At a Glance||Dec 2017||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,293,690 (+0.4%)||$1,288,500||$960,000 (+34.8%)|
|Average Price||$1,556,330 (-3.9%)||$1,619,100||$1,186,120 (+31.2%)|
|No. of Sales||704 (-11.1%)||792||746 (-5.6%)|
|Pending||515 (-32.1%)||758||544 (-5.3%)|
|Active||271 (-41.2%)||461||694 (-61.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||109.3% (+0.8%)||108.5%||101.2% (+8.0%)|
|Days on Market||21 (-3.5%)||22||34 (-39.3%)|
|Days of Inventory||12 (-31.6%)||17||28 (-58.6%)|
Hearing the real estate market “war stories” about dozens of offers on Silicon Valley properties and overbids ranging from 20 – 55% had convinced me that we were in a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble back in early 2013. At least, this is what a bubble looks like, sounds like, feels like, and acts like. At the time I thought, “how much longer could this continue?” Four years and counting – that is the answer.
I tell my family and friends that we are in “crazyland” as buyers purchase homes with no contingencies of any kind, houses sell in 10 days or less (if everything is right, which seems to be the case 75% of the time), and those same properties are selling at well over list price and with much more than 20% down.
The absorption rate, or months of inventory: it is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble?
What do the numbers say? I just logged into MLSListings.com and see that right now, in all of Santa Clara County there are 817 single family homes (houses + duet or attached single family homes). The pending and contingent homes measure 1074, far more! That ratio alone suggests that the market is in overdrive. In the last 30 days, 950 single family homes have sold & closed escrow. So the months of inventory is 817 divided by 950 = .86 of a month of inventory, so about 3.5 weeks of inventory. (When I originally blogged about the potential bubble, it was 1.8 months of inventory.)
In other words, things are flying off the shelves. And they have been, with only a few minor blips here and there, since early 2012. Does that sound like a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble to you – a crazy strong seller’s market lasting 4.5 years? I could be wrong, but I think of bubbles as being something fairly swift, not a multi year trend.
Homes are selling faster than new ones are coming onto the market!
It’s one thing to say that one city, town, or school district has a very low months of inventory (or high absorption rate). It is another altogether to say an entire county is that low. This is a major trend, not a tiny blip in the statistics.
How soon we forget that after the outrageously deep seller’s market in 2000, we had a steep drop in 2001. Or that all the crazy buying in the San Jose area (and other places) in 2005-06, combined with bad financial regulations, lead to the crash of 2007-2009. But perhaps that enormous “correction”, in which Santa Clara County lost about 50% of its value on average, had more room to recover than we initially realized. Jobs keep flowing in, and housing starts are not keeping up. Supply and demand – the age old equation. That would seem to refute the idea that this is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble. Perhaps low inventory and strong demand are what we should be expecting going forward. Continue reading
How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a hot “seller’s market” overall. But look closer and you can see there are clear market micro-climates. Prices are better for sellers, while buyers struggle with higher prices and less homes to choose from.
Almaden Valley Inventory of Houses for Sale
Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory. What’s happening?
First, let’s see what “usually” happens in the 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale. Here’s a look at the last 10 years (all available history), care of Altos Research:
Here you can see that inventory has regular peaks and dips. Inventory tends to rise early each year and peak in mid to late summer. After the peak is a decline through autumn and winter with the lowest point in the coldest part of the year before turning around again before spring.
Now let’s look up close at just the last 3 years.
As usual, our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later – at least, that happened until 2017. This year, inventory stayed up longer than usual, not going as low in winter as expected, but instead fell later, when the market is usually heating up! Rather than rising to a peak again in summer, it looks like inventory is continuing to drop or at least remain extraordinarily low. We have hit the bottom (hopefully), but inventory won’t necessarily increase as the year progresses, if seasonal trends are followed. Perhaps the whole cycle is running a little late.
Today is the first of November. For many Santa Clara County home buyers and sellers, it marks the beginning of “the holiday season” and the end of the home buying & selling season. But is that always the case?
In my real estate practice (San Jose, Los Gatos and all over the county), normally I do have sales activity in November and December. Many times, clients want to be in their new home before the December holidays and the new year. Sometimes it’s for tax reasons. Other times it’s a late year relocation. Once in awhile, someone just wants Christmas, Hanukkah or some other major date in the new home.
This morning I logged onto MLS Listings to see the numbers of sales of single family homes in the month of November over the last dozen years or so to see what we could learn about November home sales in Santa Clara County. We don’t have a crystal ball for November 2014, but if annual patterns hold true again, around 800 homes are likely to sell this month. The lowest number in recent history was 510, and that was during the recession. Here, then, are the counts for houses sold in SCC in the last 17 years (as far back as I could go on the MLS):
2013 – 762
2012 – 810
2011 – 834
2009 – 853
2008 – 672
2007 – 510
2006 – 853
2005 – 992
2004 – 1146
2003 – 1136
2002 – 933
2001 – 996
2000 – 926
1999 – 1051
1998 – 1080
People still need to buy houses, for whatever reason it may be. The statistics tell us that they continue to do so here in November. If you are thinking of selling your Silicon Valley home, don’t believe that you must wait until the new year. A good, well priced, well presented, and well marketed home really can sell here at any time of year. Unlike the northeast, we do not have terrible weather that makes showings difficult or unappealing. If you’re interested in a fall or winter home sale, please call or email me. We can discuss it, your home’s pricing and everything else relevant to give you good information on which to base your decision.
Related reading: Holiday Home Selling: Good or Bad Idea?
$1,650,000 : 2743 Custer DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 3 baths
$625,000 : 620 E San Salvador ST, SAN JOSE2 beds, 1 bath
$1,350,000 : 404 Casselino DR, SAN JOSE4 beds, 4 baths
$799,000 : 1776 Camino Leonor, SAN JOSE2 beds, 2 baths
$1,348,888 : 1346 Trailside LN, SAN JOSE4 beds, 4 baths
$759,000 : 3320 Mount Mckinley DR, SAN JOSE3 beds, 2 baths
$1,400,000 : 1773 McCluhan WAY, SAN JOSE4 beds, 2 baths
$485,000 : 230 Dale DR, SAN JOSE2 beds, 1 bath
$849,000 : 10331 Beeman DR, SAN JOSE5 beds, 4 baths
$480,000 : 5487 Judith ST 2, SAN JOSE2 beds, 1 bath
See all Real estate in the city of San Jose.
(all data current as of 4/21/2018)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
Gilroy is a scenic area well known for wineries, farmland and fruit stands. More than anything, it’s most iconic produce is garlic, which is celebrated late each July with the annual Garlic Festival, which began yesterday and continues through the weekend. If you’ve never been, I highly recommend it! Go early and bring your appetite! There’s more than just eating to be enjoyed, but eating is surely high up on the list of priorities! Click on the link above to see what’s on the schedule this weekend. (Be sure to wear sunscreen and a hat. It is very hot…so drink a lot of water…)
In the days and weeks leading up to this fun food festival, the scent of garlic fills the early morning air and blows north along the coastal foothills so that those of us in Silicon Valley get a healthy nose full when grabbing our morning paper off the driveway. This has been my experience since I was a small child and I’m happy that all the progress of the last 40 or 50 years hasn’t changed the smell of garlic heralding mid-summer.
Garlic is king in Gilroy, but it’s not all that’s happening there
A nice easy, and fairly fast trip by car will bring you to South County and to Gilroy. It’s a wonderful day trip to explore the backyard of Silicon Valley, or better, take a whole weekend to get to know the area. There’s a nice downtown area where you can do some shopping and dining. Go out a bit and there are a number of fabulous wineries to check out. And lest we forget, Gilroy is a local epicenter of bargain shopping.
At the intersection of highways 101 and 152, the Gilroy Premium Outlet Mall is found. Go with the intention of spending money, because resistance is futile once you park your car. This afternoon I spent a few hours there with my daughter and we found some especially good pricing on clothes – perhaps because of the Garlic Festival and the anticipated crowds.
Many will attest that cars are found for a better price there, too.