How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a fairly strong seller’s market, but like the rest of the county, is in a period of cooling off in terms of pricing, numbers of offers, and sale price to list price ratio.
If you’re selling, perhaps a few months ago, you’d have gotten 6 or 8 offers on your well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced home for sale. Now, maybe it is 3 or 4 offers instead. The offers are often coming in with no contingencies, but there just aren’t as many. The massive overbids are becoming a little less massive.
Part of this seems to be seasonal fluctuation. In my 25 years of selling homes in the Santa Clara Valley, I have seen that in MOST years, late spring and early summer sees a flattening of the market, sometimes even a slight decline in pricing, after the peak months of January through April. Last year, that didn’t happen.
The other part may be “buyer fatigue”. Buyers have had enough with the spiraling-out-of-control prices and terms so strongly in the sellers’ favor. They are voting with their feet.
Further down in this article, we’ll utilize the graphs from Altos Research, which uses list prices, and check out the trends in pricing by quartile in this zip code (meaning 4 groups based on the pricing tier from least to most expensive). Campbell condominiums and townhomes will be considered as well. And finally, a list of homes for sale in Campbell will be found at the bottom of the post.
And now – here are some quick stats, care of my RE Report for Campbell:
CAMPBELL real estate market trends and statistics
Still up year over year, but down month over month
|Trends At a Glance||Aug 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,400,000 (-3.4%)||$1,450,000||$1,360,630 (+2.9%)|
|Average Price||$1,417,320 (-9.4%)||$1,563,680||$1,522,240 (-6.9%)|
|No. of Sales||21 (-27.6%)||29||35 (-40.0%)|
|Pending||19 (-17.4%)||23||25 (-24.0%)|
|Active||26 (-21.2%)||33||13 (+100.0%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||101.5% (-2.7%)||104.4%||106.3% (-4.5%)|
|Days on Market||26 (+50.4%)||17||13 (+108.4%)|
|Days of Inventory||37 (+8.8%)||34||11 (+233.3%)|
And the month before
|Trends At a Glance||Jul 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,450,000 (-6.5%)||$1,550,000||$1,275,000 (+13.7%)|
|Average Price||$1,563,680 (-1.4%)||$1,586,540||$1,357,390 (+15.2%)|
|No. of Sales||29 (0.0%)||29||40 (-27.5%)|
|Pending||23 (-11.5%)||26||33 (-30.3%)|
|Active||33 (+3.1%)||32||14 (+135.7%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||104.4% (-4.0%)||108.7%||106.8% (-2.3%)|
|Days on Market||17 (+30.9%)||13||17 (+3.6%)|
|Days of Inventory||34 (+6.7%)||32||11 (+225.1%)|
What about the Campbell CA condo market?
Willow Glen is perhaps the most charming residential area of the city of San Jose with its old style architecture, tree lined streets and quaint downtown area on Lincoln Avenue and nearby. For folks working in downtown San Jose, the Willow Glen area (roughly the same as 95125 zip code, though a bit of 95124 is included also) is extremely convenient.
The real estate market in Willow Glen is declining slightly from the peaks earlier this year, but values are up year over year, just like the most of the valley. My sense is that this is a seasonal fluctuation combined with “buyer fatigue”. Last year, the housing market did not follow the regular pattern – but this year, perhaps we are settling back into exactly that.
Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report with all of the numbers, stats and trends from the closed sales of houses for last month. Further down in this article you’ll find the Altos Research charts as well.
Willow Glen Market Trends
|Trends At a Glance||Aug 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,435,000 (-1.9%)||$1,462,500||$1,391,000 (+3.2%)|
|Average Price||$1,560,210 (+3.0%)||$1,515,270||$1,486,540 (+5.0%)|
|No. of Sales||40 (-13.0%)||46||55 (-27.3%)|
|Pending||49 (+6.5%)||46||54 (-9.3%)|
|Active||58 (-17.1%)||70||27 (+114.8%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||103.5% (0.0%)||103.5%||104.1% (-0.6%)|
|Days on Market||23 (+47.3%)||15||22 (+1.3%)|
|Days of Inventory||44 (-4.7%)||46||15 (+195.4%)|
And the month before:
|Trends At a Glance||Jul 2018||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,462,500 (-0.1%)||$1,464,500||$1,309,380 (+11.7%)|
|Average Price||$1,515,270 (-3.2%)||$1,565,640||$1,391,670 (+8.9%)|
|No. of Sales||46 (-14.8%)||54||50 (-8.0%)|
|Pending||46 (0.0%)||46||46 (0.0%)|
|Active||70 (+22.8%)||57||39 (+79.5%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||103.5% (-1.4%)||105.0%||102.8% (+0.7%)|
|Days on Market||15 (+6.9%)||14||20 (-22.3%)|
|Days of Inventory||46 (+49.1%)||31||23 (+95.1%)|
And next, of Willow Glen condos:
How’s the Saratoga California real estate market?
This is a fairly comprehensive article on the Saratoga real estate market that will include the live statistics from Altos Research for listed properties (not closed) in Saratoga CA 95070, the closed sale data from the RE Report for last month in Saratoga 95070, and the numbers I crunched for Saratoga – overall and by price point and high school district, since Saratoga has 3 different high school districts, each with an impact on home values.
First, let’s consider the months of inventory by price point and high school district that I crunched using MLSListings.com, our local multiple listing service provider.
The months of inventory is a reference to how fast homes would be absorbed into the market if sales continued at the same pace and no new inventory came onto the market. It’s often referred to as “the absorption rate” – and that can be months of inventory, weeks of inventory, or days of inventory. A “balanced” market is somewhere around 4-5 months for us, though the National Association of Realtors says that 6 months is balanced nationwide. Anything under 3 is a good seller’s market, and under 1 is like saying that homes are “flying off the market.”
(For comparison, please also see a similar article on the Live in Los Gatos blog for the town of Los Gatos – real estate market by price point and high school district.)
For most of the valley, inventory is up, prices are down, days on market are up, and sale price to list price ratio is up. It’s still a seller’s market, but it’s softening. If it continues in this direction, it will become a buyer’s market – but is not there yet.
Here’s the chart for Saratoga – all price points, all school districts. Please notice that the months of inventory is about DOUBLE from four months ago. Translation: it’s twice as hard to sell now as it was in mid-April. At the same time, 3.15 months of inventory is still very decent! Also, though home prices can be quite high, the bulk of properties are under $3 million. It’s challenging to sell homes higher than that amount, overall.
And from 4 months ago:
By comparing across school districts you can also see how different each area’s individual market can be. Saratoga with Saratoga schools is a little slower of a market. Why? Most likely because it’s a bit pricier than other areas. This area is about 50% slower than it was a few months ago. The overall MOI makes it seem like Saratoga with Saratoga Schools is a bit sluggish. That’s not really the case in most price points, but at $4 million and up, it is a buyer’s market.
The real estate market in the San Jose area is softening just slightly. Today we’ll consider townhomes in one particular zip code, in west San Jose 95117, to see how this shakes out.
Because real estate market dynamics are largely about supply and demand, a good place to begin is by seeing the supply. Here, in the image below, see the inventory of available townhouses or townhomes for sale in 95117. Some statisticians including sale pending status, but I don’t think that is wise since nearly all of the pending sales do go to closing. Here, I’ve only included properties for sale without any kind of agreed upon contract between buyer and seller.
As of earlier today, there were exactly 3 properties identified as townhouses listed as available in the MLS. What makes this a little tricky is that “townhouse” is an architectural style, and “condominium” is a type of ownership. That could be the topic of a lengthy article all by itself, but some townhomes are held in condo ownership and some are not. Hence, some will be classified by the listing agents as condos and some not. (And, to murk things up even more, there are attached and detached single families homes that are also held in condo ownership – making them both houses or attached houses and condos!)
Be that as it may, as of this morning, there were three townhouses for sale in San Jose 95117. The average of the first 6 months of the year is 2.17, so yes, it’s a bit more, but nothing that I’d lose sleep over. Have a look:
Naturally, we need to see a few real estate market indicators to have a sense of what’s going on. Another good measuring stick is the average days on market, or days to sell. Here, it may be a bit more clear that the market has softened just a bit for townhomes in 95117, as the days to sell has moved to 12 from 8, which is a 50% increase. It’s also clear when viewing the same month, June, in recent years, that this is a tad higher. Alarming? Not at all. Getting a home sold in under 2 weeks would be break-neck speed anywhere else in the country. But – it could be the beginning of a trend. We’ll have to watch it to know for sure.
And, finally, the sale price to list price ratio. Here, again, it’s very plain to see that the sale price to list price ratio is lower than earlier in 2018. And at the same time, we need to appreciate that at 117.9%, it’s significantly higher than any other June since 2012 (and likely a lot longer back). Now, take a look at the other “Junes” and the months before it in various years. Most of the time, that number is lower. This suggests a seasonal trend.
With the inventory and days to sell or days on market, I don’t think it’s as clear that there is a pattern which we might attribute as seasonal. With this last one, though, it seems pretty consistent, suggesting that we should almost expect it to happen. Of course, I only went back to 2012 here, but I would say that in my experience, a little pullback from buyers at about this time of year is pretty normal – at least most years.
Willow Glen is one of the most charming areas of San Jose, consisting of many older homes which feature lovely, classic architecture. Most Silicon Valley home buyers treasure the Willow Glen charm and ambiance, but many are seeking newer homes. A fabulous option is “The Willows“.
KB Homes built “The Willows” in 1999 to 2000. It is tucked away at the southernmost tip of Willow Glen, off of Foxworthy Avenue & close to Almaden Expressway, but only about 2.5 to 3 miles from all the action on Lincoln Avenue.
The tree-lined streets are built in something of a loop shape with Rubino Circle being the main access or loop road. Situated on the inner part of the loop are homes with smaller lots that are a little more affordable. The outer part of the circle is built with slightly larger homes on larger lots (but none of the lots are “big”). Sidewalks with soft curbs at the corners accompany the streets and make for a pedestrian-friendly, bike, wheelchair or stroller friendly area. Visit in the early evenings and you will see children and adults walking, strolling, taking dogs for a walk etc. – always a good sign! Because the neighborhood is a bit like an oversized cul-de-sac (no through traffic), it is very quiet in terms of traffic. The area has large street lights, too, making for a safe feeling community.
Hearing the real estate market “war stories” about dozens of offers on Silicon Valley properties and overbids ranging from 20 – 55% had convinced me that we were in a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble back in early 2013. At least, this is what a bubble looks like, sounds like, feels like, and acts like. At the time I thought, “how much longer could this continue?” Four years and counting – that is the answer.
I tell my family and friends that we are in “crazyland” as buyers purchase homes with no contingencies of any kind, houses sell in 10 days or less (if everything is right, which seems to be the case 75% of the time), and those same properties are selling at well over list price and with much more than 20% down.
The absorption rate, or months of inventory: it is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble?
What do the numbers say? I just logged into MLSListings.com and see that right now, in all of Santa Clara County there are 817 single family homes (houses + duet or attached single family homes). The pending and contingent homes measure 1074, far more! That ratio alone suggests that the market is in overdrive. In the last 30 days, 950 single family homes have sold & closed escrow. So the months of inventory is 817 divided by 950 = .86 of a month of inventory, so about 3.5 weeks of inventory. (When I originally blogged about the potential bubble, it was 1.8 months of inventory.)
In other words, things are flying off the shelves. And they have been, with only a few minor blips here and there, since early 2012. Does that sound like a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble to you – a crazy strong seller’s market lasting 4.5 years? I could be wrong, but I think of bubbles as being something fairly swift, not a multi year trend.
Homes are selling faster than new ones are coming onto the market!
It’s one thing to say that one city, town, or school district has a very low months of inventory (or high absorption rate). It is another altogether to say an entire county is that low. This is a major trend, not a tiny blip in the statistics.
How soon we forget that after the outrageously deep seller’s market in 2000, we had a steep drop in 2001. Or that all the crazy buying in the San Jose area (and other places) in 2005-06, combined with bad financial regulations, lead to the crash of 2007-2009. But perhaps that enormous “correction”, in which Santa Clara County lost about 50% of its value on average, had more room to recover than we initially realized. Jobs keep flowing in, and housing starts are not keeping up. Supply and demand – the age old equation. That would seem to refute the idea that this is a Silicon Valley real estate market bubble. Perhaps low inventory and strong demand are what we should be expecting going forward. Continue reading
One of the prettiest townhome communities in Santa Clara County is Vizcaya, which features a Mediterranean style of architecture in a community that is extremely tidy and well maintained. Driving in, it feels like you’ve just arrived at a resort.
Where is Vizcaya?
The Vizacaya neighborhood is in San Jose just off S Bascom and Curtner Avenues, but is close to the Campbell border and confusingly, has a Campbell mailing address. The community’s streets are Vizcaya Circle, Vizcays Way, and Pescara Court. The location is very convenient, with easy access to shopping, bus lines, and major traffic routes.
What are the homes like at Vizcaya?
Built between 1990 and 1996, these 92 townhomes are younger feeling and tend to have fairly open floor plans and plenty of large windows. The home sizes range between 2396 SF and 2656 SF, but many are so nicely designed that they tend to feel like single family homes. Lot sizes average around 4,100 SF (pretty big for a townhouse). The parcels range in size from 2480 SF to over 10,000 SF but most are 3000 – 5000 SF.
The homes in the Vizcaya community are condominiums with a townhouse architectural style. (Some townhouses are held in PUD ownership. In some locations, such as Almaden and Los Gatos, there are houses which are condos – or held in condo ownership.) There’s a small pool and spa at the center of the complex for residents to enjoy. The day I took the photos shown in the slideshow, below, painting was ongoing next to the pool, so it isn’t shown.
What does it cost to buy a townhome in Vizcaya?
These upscale properties don’t come on the market too often, but if you are lucky enough to find one available to buy, chances are that it will cost a million dollars or a more (as of this writing in October 2016).
Saratoga and Los Gatos are neighbors, but their real estate markets are not the same! Today we’ll consider the condo and townhouse market in these two upscale Silicon Valley areas and view some elements “side by side”. See what you think!
First, let’s have a peek at how fast things are selling. Saratoga & Los Gatos both are at under 3 week for the “days to sell over time”. Saratoga tends to sell a little better than Los Gatos for condominiums and townhomes, and that’s the case now as well – at least months months, and recently. (Reasons, not sure – perhaps because the location is a little closer to Cupertino and Sunnyvale and the many high tech jobs there. Or it could be related to the school scores or any number of factors.)
Let’s check some other criteria and see how they stack up there. Let’s look at the new listings as opposed to the solds. How far apart are they? (The closer they are, the “hotter” the market. If the solds are going faster than the new listings are coming on, it’s a red hot seller’s market.) For most of the last year, Saratoga condominiums have been selling and closing faster than new ones have entered the market, or have tied it, except for March and April. In Los Gatos, same pattern recently of new listings outpacing sales, and in January the closed sales outpaced new inventory. But overall, it’s close to a tie or there’s a slight leaning toward new listings rather than sales unless you look back to last fall. So a little bit cooler of a market in Los Gatos by this standard.
When a parent, spouse or loved one dies and he or she owned a home, there’s a lot for the survivors to do in addition to the very real and painful process of mourning. I have been through this with my own parents (and their house in Saratoga), a great aunt in Willow Glen and many clients in San Jose, Los Gatos and elsewhere in Silicon Valley.
Where to begin? in terms of settling the estate, it is wise to first speak with an attorney and tax professional about the property (will, trust etc. if applicable) and what they advise and require to help in doing what is required and adviseable. (I have some wonderful people I can suggest if you would like a referral.) They will try to help you to legally minimize capital gains and estate taxes and can advise you on topics such as when might be the best time to sell vis a vis the tax liability. This is extremely important and it can be very expensive to not take into account their guidance on this point, so I strongly recommend that you or other beneficiaries discuss everything with the attorney or accountant prior to electing whether the home will be sold, rented etc. in the short term.
How can a real estate professional help?
Most often, something you’ll need for the lawyer and CPA or other tax professional is a valuation of the home as of the date of death (whether or not there is a surviving spouse or co-owner). You can obtain this by hiring a licensed residential real estate appraiser who will do an appraisal for you. Alternatively, you may be able to engage a real estate licensee (salesperson) to do a competitive market analysis or comparative market analysis (CMA), which would provide the probable buyer’s value for the property. Continue reading
What should you expect when you go to visit homes for sale in Silicon Valley? Here are a few quick tips.
- Many home sellers in the San Jose area will ask that you remove your shoes. So wearing slip ons of some kind will be a lot easier than footwear with laces, buckles, zippers etc.
- Most of the time, sellers will not be home. They wisely will clear out, when possible, to give you the space to look without feeling like you’re imposing on them. Sometimes, though, for any number of reasons, this may not happen.
- If sellers are home, they will usually answer the door or, worst case, respond when the agent and buyers enter and announce themselves. Once in awhile, though, there’s a surprise seller somewhere in the house. (Maybe one time in a hundred? I have run into people who were in bed, in a shower, on a couch and simply not responding.) So be alert when viewing homes, be cautious, or it could be like that scene in “E.T.” where ET and the little girl see each other and scream their lungs out.
- Pets are usually not present and loose, but again, sometimes there’s a misfire, so be on guard for dogs and cats (more likely the latter). If dogs are present and loose I usually will not show the home. I love dogs and own one, but they’re not all equally friendly.
- Personalization: usually sellers will have decluttered and depersonalized their homes so that you and other home buyers can “see themselves” in that space. For some sellers, particularly seniors, it can be very difficult to remove those items until the moving van is in the driveway. So be prepared to see at least some homes with an inordinate amount of stuff, whether it’s family photos, collections, religious imagery or worship space, rooms not being used for their intended purpose, and so on. In these places, you’ll need to be able to see past what’s currently there as the personal items can be confusing. For instance, I have seen family rooms used as dining rooms, dining rooms used as hobby rooms, bedrooms used as prayer or exercise rooms, garages divided into several smaller rooms (with easily removable walls), etc.
- Normally, homes are clean and pleasant to see. Sometimes with distressed properties, tenant occupied (unmotivated residents), homes with invalid residents, or other physical or emotional situations the home may be a wreck. Know that you will probably see a wide spectrum of care for the house and yard.
What about your behavior in the home? Most home buyers are very considerate but here are a couple of things to think about.
In addition to removing your shoes if requested to do so, you should plan on making sure any little members of the family stay with you and are “gentle” on the home and belongings. Children can move fast and not all homes are child-proofed. (I have seen kids go in the opposite direction as their parents and then jump on the home seller’s furniture, open drawers of furniture, etc. – not good.) I worry the most when the sellers have a cat and the buyers have a toddler – often not a perfect combination. In fact, sellers and agents usually want your group to stay together and not go in opposite directions no matter what the ages are.
Home sellers usually understand that someone may need to use the bathroom while there, but in general, of course, they’d rather that this not happen. If you or your kids need to use the restroom, please check afterward to make sure that everything’s clean. The other day I visited my listing and when I went into the master bathroom there were big splotches of urine on the toilet seat. Not cool! (And if the seller is home, of course you should ask permission first.)
If the sellers are home, it’s good to keep any feedback to yourself until you have left the property (or to share it quietly so as not to be overheard).
These are the basics. Happy house hunting!
$2,088,000 : 21761 Olive AVE, CUPERTINO4 beds, 4 baths
$1,150,000 : 10126 English Oak WAY, CUPERTINO2 beds, 2 baths
$1,999,999 : 1146 S Stelling RD, CUPERTINO3 beds, 2 baths
$1,748,000 : 18645 Ralya CT, CUPERTINO3 beds, 2 baths
$2,395,000 : 11023 Canyon Vista DR, CUPERTINO2 beds, 2 baths
$2,399,999 : 10810 Ashbourne CT, CUPERTINO5 beds, 3 baths
$2,768,000 : 10630 Johansen DR, CUPERTINO4 beds, 4 baths
$2,848,000 : 21070 Canyon Oak WAY, CUPERTINO4 beds, 3 baths
$1,958,000 : 10380 Oakville AVE, CUPERTINO3 beds, 2 baths
$2,298,000 : 21875 Almaden AVE, CUPERTINO4 beds, 2 baths
See all Real estate in the city of Cupertino.
(all data current as of 9/19/2018)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.