Every couple of weeks I update this post to bring fresh news and data on the Cambrian Park real estate market. On Dec 9th  I went onto the MLS and ran the “months of inventory” or absorption rate of houses and duet homes (what our MLS calls “class 1″)  in “area 14″ or Cambrian area of San Jose. This time I broke it down into price points as well as the type of sale (regular, short sale, bank owned)  so you can pinpoint the pricing for the various segments of the Cambrian market. (Reminder: months of inventory reflects how long it will take to sell a property if sales continue at the current rate. Six months or so is considered “balanced”. More is a buyer’s market and less is a seller’s.)

**please note – typo below – numbers were crunched December 9th, 2011, not December 10th.

Cambrian Park (San Jose) Months of Inventory by sale type & price point Dec 9, 2011

What’s selling? “Regular sales” – non distressed. Not faring so well? Short sales.  In many price points, although many are under contract or pending, FEW – sometimes none – are making it to the closing table.  We are hearing a lot about the streamlined processes for short sales, but these numbers hint at a different reality, namely that Silicon Valley and Cambrian short sales sell but often don’t close escrow.

What is the typical kind of home and price for these neighborhoods?  Of the homes which transferred ownership in the last 30 days, a typical house cost about $600,000, has about 1600 square feet and sits on a lot of around 6700 square feet (and is “partially updated”, not fully remodeled).  The price per square foot averaged $376 but ran from $205 (distressed and on a hugely busy road) to $513 (close to the hills near Almaden and Los Gatos).  If the home you want to buy or sell needs remodeling or is “all original” it’s probably going to sell for less. If it’s in a great area, is a regular sale and absolutely turnkey and fully remodeled, it’ll sell for more.  A beautifully remodeled Cambrian house with 3 bed, 2 bath and 1200 square feet can easily run $600,000 or more if it’s a regular sale and in a good area with no “issues” (high voltage lines, backing to busy road or school etc.).

What about the pending sales?

As of this morning, there are 95 houses & duet homes which are sale pending.  Of those, 39 are regular sales (a mere 41%!), 48 are short sales and 8 are bank owned properties (REOs).  How do the pendings compare to the homes sold?  Here’s a quick breakdown for all price ranges in “area 14″ of San Jose:

ALL types Pending – 95   Sold in last 30 days – 37
Regular sales – 39   Sold in last 30 days – 32
Short sales -  48   Sold in last 30 days – 1
Bank owned sales – 8   Sold in last 30 days – 2

This underlines the fact that the short sales are getting into contract…but just not getting to the closing table! Bank owned homes are better, but the ratio of pendings to closings is much, much better with regular sales.  This explains why the regular sales are the hottest ticket in Cambrian Park right now: buyers don’t want to just buy, they want to close!

Some sellers are borderline on being able to sell without either having to bring cash to the closing table or having to attempt a short sale.  What do these numbers suggest?  That if you really want to sell and can do it – you may be best off doing a regular sale, even if you need to bring money to the title company to make it work.   (This is general advice only, your own situation may be different – please consult with your Realtor, lawyer and tax advisor before deciding to do, or not to do, a short sale.)

Here’s a snapshot view what was happening in the 95124 and 95118 areas of San Jose as of December 2nd, 2011. (My last update for this part of San Jose -  a mini update.)

Cambrian Park (San Jose) quick real estate stats for houses Dec 2, 2011

Interestingly, the hottest segment of this market is not the distressed sales, but regular ones, which are being absorbed three times as fast as the short sales or bank owned homes on the market. And it’s understandable: REOs don’t provide any disclosures and may contain surprises after close of escrow, and short sales may never close.  Just look at the huge number of pendings as opposed to the short sales which actually become a finalized transaction!  We hear that the odds are improving on short sales closing, but this graph doesn’t validate that impression at all.

Cambrian San Jose Real Estate Trends & Statistics for Sold Homes

It’s been a “hot sellers market” in the Cambrian district of San Jose for many months now with most homes that sell going fairly close to list price (1-2% off on average).  That doesn’t mean that the best idea is to always offer less than list price, though, as many homes are selling at or above list price.

If we took a close look at what’s selling and closed recently, we would find that some Cambrian houses are selling for more than list price, some right at list price and others below or well under the offered price.  Some Cambrian real estate is listed strategically low in order to get multiple offers and drive the price up.  Some are overpriced and others are priced “right on the money”.

Data on real estate solds in Cambrian area of San Jose, for November, October, September and August 2011 among houses from my Real Estate Report:

Next, October:

September:

Next, August (note that prices were higher, pending prices were higher in August as opposed to September).

Inventory is down about 32% from a year ago.  Prices are down, too, both year over year and month over month. Even so, the Cambrian real estate market is fairly hot, a good strong seller’s market as long as homes are priced well, staged well, and marketed well.  That doesn’t mean that every home is selling, but those which are nicely staged and marketed and correctly priced are selling at a good pace – and many of them get multiple offers, as the overbids attest.

Just now I checked what has closed in the Cambrian area in the last 30 days. There were 36 houses that closed. Of them 9 sold over list price, a few sold right at list price but most sold under list (and a very few sold grossly lower).

Now let’s work with Altos Research’s graphs and get a feel for the Cambrian realty market in “real time”.  These use list prices, whereas my REReport uses sold data.

First, the statistics by quartile for houses in San Jose 95118:

Next, the stats and trends by price quartile for houses in San Jose 95124:

Median list price of homes for sale in 95124 and 95118:

Very interesting that the 95124 pricing appears to be swinging upward while the 95118 pricing continues to go down.  I believe that this is mainly because the schools in 95124 have been trending upward strongly with the API scores.  Prices are also at a higher level, and those are less impacted by short sales and REOs countywide.  So it may be the result of multiple factors.  (95124 is about 2/3 of the Cambrian real estate market.)

Inventory in Cambrian area of San Jose 95124, 95118:

Surprising, isn’t it, to see how differently these two San Jose zip codes are behaving from each other?

Average days on Market in San Jose’s Cambrian area

And again, really different trends on these neighboring zips, both in Cambrian!

Another anecdotal story to share: Recently I closed the sale on my listing at 5114 Nerissa Way in Cambrian with Union Schools and Alta Vista in particular. We were listed at $579,000 and received 4 offers and sold at $585,000. Interestingly, we received 2 nearly identical “best” offers, both at $585,000. One was completely As Is and the other was almost As Is (they wanted a fumigation and pest clearance provided).  That is usually a pretty good affirmation of market value, and the property did appraise at the sales price.  The other two offers we got were below list price.  One was all cash and it was extremely low.  Buyers who are purchasing without financing sometimes misunderstand the type of discount that their all-cash status will get for them, so sometimes the worst offers are all cash and that was the case this time.

Want more info on your neighborhood, your house, or your target home to buy? Please call me!

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 63. See more 95124 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 2/10/2012)

1. $685,000 : 1671 Zinnia Ln, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,410 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,240 sq ft
   
2. $549,900 : 2423 Loment Pl, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,539 sq ft

   Lot size: 4,232 sq ft
   
3. $639,000 : 1695 Merrill Dr, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,396 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,200 sq ft
   
4. $550,000 : 5051 Nerissa Wy, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,120 sq ft

   Lot size: 10,824 sq ft
   
5. $748,000 : 1830 Curtner Av, San Jose
   
   5 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 2,191 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,000 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 28. See more 95118 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of 2/10/2012)

1. $575,000 : 3213 Gardendale Dr, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,800 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,313 sq ft
   
2. $489,900 : 1349 Lyonsville Ln, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,692 sq ft

   Lot size: 9,583 sq ft
   
3. $499,000 : 3119 Santa Margarita Av, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 1 full bath

   Home size: 1,071 sq ft

   Lot size: 7,840 sq ft
   
4. $430,000 : 1560 Hillsdale Av, San Jose
   
   4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 1,654 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,890 sq ft
   
5. $534,888 : 3183 Cheshire Dr, San Jose
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,570 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,000 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Browse lists of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale:
Houses for sale in the 95118 part of Cambrian
Cambrian Park Houses for Sale in 95124

Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley”
408 204-7673 (Cell)
emailto: Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com & www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com

Monte Sereno is an upscale, small city of about 4,000 residents. It shares police, parks, library and school services with neighboring Los Gatos and the residents of Monte Sereno tend to be very involved in the life of Los Gatos for that reason. In a sense, they are like sister cities living next door to each other.

Monte Sereno is not just a mini-me of Los Gatos, though.  Unlike its larger next door neighbor, there’s no industry in this city.  Aside from the post office and city offices, it’s 100% residential: there are no commercial buildings whatsoever. And it’s pricey! Houses tend to be a bit more expensive in MS, even though it has the same schools (a larger driver of home values in Silicon Valley) and zip codes with LG. There are a good number of estate properties and luxury homes too. Looking for an exclusive neighborhood? This will fill that bill – along with much of Los Gatos and Saratoga.

How’s the real estate market in Monte Sereno?

I update my readers via this blog and also via my Live in Los Gatos blog fairly often on various Silicon Valley communities, including Monte Sereno. Here are a couple of resources for keeping a pulse on the market trends and statistics in this neat little city:

• blog post on this site on the Monte Sereno Real Estate Market
• my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report for houses, updated monthly
• check on listings, pendings and sold homes via my property analysis page

Properties for Sale in Monte Sereno CA

The vast majority of residential real estate in Monte Sereno is single family homes (houses & duet homes), but there are a few townhouses in the city limits too (some townhouses are held in PUD ownership, others in condominium ownership). Also, most (99%) of Monte Sereno is in the 95030 zip code (tiniest of fractions in 95032) and in the Los Gatos School District (tiny fraction in Moreland schools).

At any given time there are usually fewer than 50 houses or homes for sale. Below are the listings currently on our MLS, beginning with those listed most recently. If you click through, you may also view the available properties via map – an easy way to get a lay of the land!

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 7. See more city of Monte Sereno real estate.
(all data current as of 2/10/2012)

1. $4,575,000 : 18325 Lexington Dr, Monte Sereno
   
   5 beds, 5 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 4,640 sq ft

   Lot size: 43,560 sq ft
   
2. $3,899,999 : 15981 Grandview Av, Monte Sereno
   
   6 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 5,300 sq ft

   Lot size: 43,560 sq ft
   
3. $2,595,000 : 16131 Viewfield Rd, Monte Sereno
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 2 part baths

   Home size: 4,890 sq ft

   Lot size: 18,837 sq ft
   
4. $980,000 : 18788 Withey Rd, Monte Sereno
   
   3 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,937 sq ft

   Lot size: 1.03 ac
   
5. $1,498,500 : 17436 Pleasant View Av, Monte Sereno
   
   4 beds, 2 full baths

   Home size: 1,740 sq ft

   Lot size: 11,253 sq ft
   

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Homeowner Associations (HOAs) are created to oversee condominium complexes, townhome communities and planned unit developments on behalf of their members. These are non-profit organizations whose purpose is to manage common areas, enforce neighborhood rules and standards, and often, unofficially, to foster community unity too. In most cases, they collect fees from members and have local authority. In other words, if you do not pay your homeowner association dues, or abide by one of its rules*, the HOA can and usually will fine you or even foreclose on you!

There are loads of HOAs in Silicon Valley. As with all organizations, some are better run than others. Its a little different than owning real estate outside of a homeowners association.

What are the pros and cons?

At their best, Silicon Valley HOAs keep the communities they manage beautifully landscaped and maintained, they hire good providers for needed improvements, and minimize risk to all the members. By having reasonable rules and community buy-in, the neighborhood can look inviting and property values can be better maintained.

At their worst, HOAs can be unresponsive to members needs, erratic, arbitrary and irresponsible. They may, by poor planning, cause huge assessments to be necessary or raise HOA dues so that they are very high – to the point where they make homes hard to sell. Not only are those an unhappy occasion, they can also make it hard to sell a home with a special assessment looming. Fortunately, this is seldom the case in most areas – but if the HOA has a high number of defaults due to owner bankruptcy or inability to keep up with mortgage, property insurance etc. it can cost all of the members eventually.

Is it less expensive to buy a house in a PUD? Maybe. You will have monthly fees that may cover your front landscaping, exterior of your structure, and roof. But perhaps not. Its possible that the fees will only cover the street paving – you have to read through the documents to see whats included.

What are some of the issues to be aware of surrounding HOAs in the San Jose area? What are some questions to ask if you are thinking of buying a property with a HOA?

1. HOAs may be big or small and may be professionally managed or may be run by volunteer homeowners. Many small HOAs are run by volunteers, while larger complexes or subdivisions may have ˜professional management (paid). First, youll want to know which it is.
2. HOAs tend to have a lot of rules – and they are not all intuitive – so if youre buying a home in Silicon Valley with a Homeowners Association, be sure to read the HOA packet throroughly. This will include the last years worth of minutes (great for understanding what the homeowners consider ˜issues), the bylaws, the budget, the current financial statement (very important for grasping whether a special assessment may be coming your way in the future), and more. This tends to be dry reading but is vitally important for you to understand before you remove your property condition contingency!
3. HOAs have the power to levy assessments to pay for needed improvements such as repaving, replastering the pool, replacing the roofs, refencing, etc. Most HOAs are underfunded and periodically have these ˜special assessments, so beware!
4. Some HOAs have planned assessments several times a year, so dont be fooled when you see the monthly HOA fee. It may not be reflective of the true cost. For example, Saratoga Oaks, a stunningly beautiful townhome community in Saratoga, has assessments for both blanket insurance and for earthquake insurance which are ˜extra payments occurring during the year. By splitting these out, the monthly HOA looks less imposing than it is in reality.
5. New construction often has unrealistically low monthly dues or HOA fees. The builders want the properties to be attractive to buyers so put the monthly cost on the low side. Eventually the homeowners realize that they are underfunded and then must either raise the monthly charges, do an assessment, or both. Its not fun when that happens.

Selling a home governed by a HOA?

If you are selling your San Jose area condominium, townhome, or single family home governed by a HOA, plan ahead! You (not the HOA) will be required to give the buyer the HOA packet and will need to ask your Homeowners Association to provide the documents that compose it. Your HOA will do so, but will need some time and there will be a fee for this service. It is a good idea to have the HOA package ready to deliver to the buyer once your home goes on the market. (If it takes a long time before your property sells, you may need to update it.)

Your HOA may have rules about for sale signs and open house signs, so check before you get your home on the market. Gated Communities (while fairly small in number here in Santa Clara County) may have rules about hours for open houses, access, too, so find out ahead of time.

If you dont like authority, dont buy in a HOA community.

*The story is told that a HOA had a rule that each condo owner needed to allow the HOA in once every 6 or 12 months to test the smoke detector. The thinking was that if one condo caught on fire, theyd all be at risk because of the nature of the complex. One homeowner didnt want to allow the HOA in, so refused. What did the HOA do? It took the owner to court, ran up a lot of legal fees, and eventually the homeowner was made to not only let the HOA in to check the smoke detector, but was forced to pay a large sum of legal fees too.

Most folks who live in areas governed by a HOA are happy with the association and its work. Many of these neighborhoods, such as La Rinconada in Los Gatos or The Villas of Almaden in Almaden Valley, are impeccably maintained and its clear that the owners appreciate the value of real estate thats well managed. There is often an easier lifestyle associated with living in a HOA because someone else does much of the landscaping, or there may be common areas to enjoy such as a garden, park or pool. And in senior communities, such as along Alberto Way in Los Gatos or The Villages in San Jose, there also can be more affordable and quieter housing made available. As long as its well managed, being in a HOA can be not only a good experience, but good for your homes value.