The weather’s great and there’s plenty to do to celebrate Halloween in and near Silicon Valley! Here are a few events you might consider in our Santa Clara County area:

And if you like “real” ghost stories, please stop by my Haunted Real Estate blog.

Happy Halloween!
Mary

Almaden Valley in San Jose is comprised of many neighborhoods and subdivisions. One of them, close to the border with Los Gatos and Cambrian Park, is particularly popular: Oak Canyon.

There are many reasons for its draw among Silicon Valley homebuyers: the houses were well built by Shea Homes in about 1980, so they are relatively newer by Silicon Valley standards. They’re larger homes on comfortable lots, often 8000 sf or so but some as small as 6500 sf and others larger than a quarter acre.

Most of the homes boast a 3 car garage, which is a big help with storage of stuff, if not storage of cars. The roads gently turn, which makes a more pleasing look. It’s a very “conforming” neighborhood where everyone keeps up the homes and yards. Much of Almaden is viewed by consumers as somewhat remote, but this section, near the mouth of Almaden, is not too deep into the valley and is a better commute location for most. One of the largest pulls for the area, though, is the nearby elementary school, Guadalupe School, which has API scores in the 900s.

Where is the Oak Canyon neighborhood in Almaden Valley, San Jose?

Oak Canyon is found near the intersection of Camden Avenue and Coleman Road in San Jose but is bordered by Coleman on one side and the Guadalue Creek on the other sides. (The far side of the Guadalupe Creek at this point is Cambrian Park.)

 
And to provide some bearings, here’s a map of the Almaden Valley district of San Jose generally:

What Are Homes Like in the Oak Canyon Neighborhood of Almaden?

Most of the homes in the Oak Canyon neighborhood range between 2000 and 3000 square feet, though a few may be as small as 1700 or 1800 and if someone’s added on, it could be larger than 3200 – but those are the extremes. The floorplans are unusually well planned and open, particularly for homes built around 1980. They tend to have good, practical laoyouts that most buyers appreciate. Kitchens often face the back yard and are open to the family room (some with wet bar). A formal dining area normally sits adjacent to the living room. Ceilings are high and ordinarily there’s a good amount of built-in storage in Oak Canyon homes. One floorplan offers the master bedroom, which is upstairs, a private balcony overlooking the front yard. For many, that means a lovely view of Mt Umunhum.

Shea built a variety of elevations for different looks, with ranges from Spanish or mediterranean to contemporary or ranch. Some homeowners have renovated and made their homes appear to be Craftsman style too. This is definitely an upscale neighborhood, but still tract housing. It’s not hard to recognize the few floorplans as one walks or drives through the area. Something unusual is that the sidewalks are built directly against the street. The plus is that front
yards appear larger. The minus is that there is no uniform “tree lined street” feel since there’s no strip of land between the sidewalk and street where trees have been planted.

Special Concerns with Oak Canyon Homes

Every neighborhood has some issues. This one has very, very few!

Because of the proximity of Guadalupe Creek, and the closeness of the hills, wildlife can be a concern. For years there was an issue with large numbers of pigeons. More recently, hawks have become abundant and the pigeon population is down. It is possible that mountain lions, coyotes, skunks, possum and other wildlife will make their way into Oak Canyon as it’s an area close to the hills and close to a water source. However, I’ve never read of sightings of anything
scary in Oak Canyon.

Folks interested in Oak Canyon should view the natural hazards map to understand the proximity of the Shannon Earthquake Fault.

Water in the Guadalupe Creek should not be drunk or played with as it runs through areas with naturally-occuring mercury (there were mines for mercury up Guadalupe Road not far from this area).

Part of Oak Canyon is really close to high voltage power lines, which is a negative. Others back up to Coleman, so there’s a noise issue. Most, though, have no negatives in terms of location within the community.

What Does it Cost to Live in Oak Canyon?

Oak Canyon homes may be as inexpensive as the 900k range or run into well past a million dollars, depending on location, size of home, lot size, and condition. Large homes on large, interior lots with no “issues” will run 50% more than homes backing to Coleman or high voltage lines in need of updating. If you’d like more information on buying or selling a home in Oak Canyon or anywhere in the San Jose and Silicon Valley area, please contact me today!

Here in the Valley of Hearts Delight, aka Silicon Valley, the market continues to be a buyers market with downward pressure on prices, longer days on market, and bigger gaps between list price and sales price. What is happening area wide or county wide is not always exactly what we find in smaller market areas. Some parts of Silicon Valley, and some price points, are doing quite well relatively, while others are falling through the floor.

What is happening with San Jose real estate? Let’s look at four San Jose districts, mostly in the west valley area, by their zip code (or main zip): Almaden Valley (95120), Willow Glen (95125), Cambrian Park (95124) and West San Jose (95129).
Below, please find the trends for the median list price of single family homes for sale in these four areas of San Jose:
 
For the most part, it appears that the west valley area of San Jose real estate is continuing to experience noticeable declines in list prices throughout these districts. Interestingly, Almaden Valley and West San Jose (zip 95129) both saw improvement in spring before returning to the downward trend. By comparison, how is San Jose as a whole (the entire city) looking?
This time we’ll view all of San Jose by price quartile to see if the trends are price-point related.
 
It does not appear to be a price point issue – perhaps simply a location issue. The four areas we’re viewing today all appear to be faring much better than the city of San Jose as a whole. They are more expensive then others which are harder hit such as Blossom Valley, Santa Teresa, South San Jose and Evergreen.

Next, let’s have a look at the median list price for condominiums and townhomes in Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, Willow Glen and West San Jose:
 
This is not nearly so consistent. What’s happening? The Silicon Valley real estate market for condos and townhomes has generally gotten pretty beat up this year; the reason is that many who could afford only a condominium or townhouse before can now get into a single family home instead. The areas in which there’s an uptick in pricing are those with stronger schools. Willow Glen is extremely charming and centrally located, but the public schools generally do not perform as well ss those in the other three areas in which prices are holding up a little better. So perhaps it is that good schools are driving home sales.
Again, let’s compare the San Jose condo market in these four areas to all of San Jose and see it by quartile:
 
Again, the San Jose condo market, especially in the lower price ranges, has had a very steady downward trend in list prices. In Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, Willow Glen and West San Jose, there is decline noted, but not so severe.
What can we expect next? Economists vary on when they see recovery happening in Silicon Valley and San Jose in particular. As long as foreclosures are a large part of the resale market, it will put downward pressure on prices. As I see it, while there are adjustable rate loans continuing to adjust upward (which is happening now, particularly with the volatility in the indices used such as the LIBOR), there’s a threat of more short sales and bank owned sales pulling the market down. My sense is that things may improve a little after the election because the uncertainty has buyers additionally nervous. The market tends to go quiet as we enter November and December, even in “good years”, with the next burst of sales activity normally beginning again after the Super Bowl.

With prices declining and buyers nervous, it’s actually a good time for those who are a little more risk tolerant to buy now. This is especially true for investors as the demand for rentals is high and rents are climbing while sales prices have dropped. If you would like to investigate the possibilities of buying or selling, please call or email me today.

Recently I put together a Los Gatos Homebuyers Starter Kit page on my main website and thought I’d share it with you. There’s nothing to download, nothing to register for – just a page with an abundance of information offered by links tailored specifically to Los Gatos home buyers: Los Gatos real estate, Los Gatosneighborhoods, Los Gatos homes for sale, Los Gatos real estate market information, Los Gatos schools, Los Gatos parks, you name it. If you are thinking of buying a home in or near Los Gatos, please have a look & bookmark the page!

Silicon Valley residents are aware that Sunnyvale has a particularly low level
of crime, good schools, and a lot of strong businesses that call it home. Even
so, it’s nice to see that CNN took note too, and listed Sunnyvale in its top 100
of Best Places to Live .

Why Sunnyvale, as opposed to nearby Mountain View (a “contender"), Los Altos,
Cupertino (a “contender"), Saratoga, Los Gatos, Campbell, Santa Clara (also a
“contender") or San Jose?

Apparently it’s the combination of affordability, schools, low crime, and short
commutes that did the trick. Sunnyvale does a lot of programs in a more
efficient way, such as the amazing public safety department there.

The award is well deserved. Congratulations, Sunnyvale!

The other day I was hunting for local maps of Santa Clara County (Silicon Valley) dating back 100 years or so, and although I didn’t find exactly what I wanted, I did find a treasure trove that I hadn’t expected to find at all.

Here please find a tiny snippet of a USGS Map from the late 1890s (actually part of the Palo Alto Map). According to my husband, who has a hobby of viewing and collecting maps, each “dot” on this image represents a house. If that is the case, you can see how sparcely populated Saratoga and Cupertino were at this time.

And what is that Azule Springs? Was it another hot springs type resort, like Saratoga Springs? A map like this raises a lot of questions!

If you love – or at least enjoy – history, I invite you to visit the USGS website and look at the historic maps there. One section includes Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Cupertino and the coastal areas such as Santa Cruz and Half Moon Bay. Another section of the map includes Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Campbell, Almaden, Cambrian Park, Santa Clara and many parts of San Jose. 

It’s fun to see where things “used to be” and how they “used to be called”. Take a few minutes and enjoy!

There’s a lot for those of us in Silicon Valley to be feeling stressed out about lately. Between the stock market’s wild ride and sinking home values in Santa Clara County (and around the country), it’s a little nerve-wracking. These times are especially upsetting if you’re a senior and plan to retire soon. For years, people looked at their homes with the fond sense of “this is my retirement fund” – or at least a good part of it. Some of that value is now gone.

It’s also stressful for those of us who’ve put money into retirement funds or college savings plans and need it soon. Here in California, the 529 College Savings Plan is an “index fund”. That means it’s a combination of stocks, mutual funds, and bonds. In my house, we have one kid who’s a freshman in college and one who’s a senior in high school, and we’re seeing the 529 Plan shrink right when we need it.

The stock market, the financial crisis and the housing market are bigger than all of us. We are on the verge of a recession, if not already in one now. There’s a lot that’s beyond our control. But what CAN we do to maximize the current situation?

I cannot say what to do about the stock market, though my hunch is that when people advise “buy low”, they are talking about today. I can say something about the housing market in the San Jose area, though, because I’ve got experience with it, both professionally and personally. There are opportunities in this market for those who are able to act on them.

What are the available opportunities in the Silicon Valley real estate market?

Prices have rolled back several years, so for homebuyers who were priced out of the market previously, this is a great time to buy a home, whether as a first time home buyer or to purchase an investment property. Investment purchases are especially rewarding now as rents are high while purchase prices are soft. For the most part, this opportunity is for those who’ve had the discipline to put away savings for investment purposes – not for everyone. That said, though, FHA loans have arrived and it is possible to now buy some lower priced homes in San Jose with FHA loan funding. The FHA loans do not require a huge downpayment. Either way, though, prepare to have good credit and all your documentation. Cash is king. If you have saved a good downpayment, you may be able to negotiate a great price on your purchase.

For people needing more space, it may be possible to do a “move up” from an area that is not so badly hit to one that has been worse hit with price reductions and make a net gain. Awhile back, I was speaking with a homeowner in the Mountain View – Los Altos area who has a starter home that is now a little too small. This homeowner is considering selling a home in a “hotter” area and moving to one where there has been more of a price decline, such as to Cambrian Park or Campbell. Likewise, I’ve spoken with people in Los Gatos (a hotter area) who may move to the south county areas of Gilroy or Morgan Hill. Those are all great moves for getting more home for your money and maximizing the current market conditions.

What about seniors who planned to sell soon and move to assisted living? This issue is more complex so I would suggest talking to a tax advisor, but a couple of things do come to mind that might help. One possibility is to move to assisted living and rent out the home, having the rents supplement the cost of assisted living if possible. Rents are good and prices will likely come back up. If they come back up fairly soon, the better (tax consequences are different for selling owner occupied vs rental). Some areas are still fairly strong, too, so don’t just assume that if you live in Silicon Valley, your home has lost a ton of value.

Silicon Valley Real Estate is not a Quick Investment: Plan to Buy & Hold

What about those who are simply feeling queasy because they’re upside down in their house? I do know how this feels. We bought our first home in Cambrian Park in late 1989 and it wasn’t long before we would have lost money had we needed to sell during that period when prices were correcting. Luckily, we did not have to sell, but we were “upside down” for awhile and it was a bad feelilng. We stayed and improved the house and 10 years later sold it for 150% of what we’d bought it for – despite the fact that we purchased at the beginning of a correction – and made the jump to our move-up home in Los Gatos. “Buy and hold” is the sage advice. Perhaps “buy, improve and hold” would be even better.

So as an example, let’s look at the profile of a Cambrian starter home, similar to the one we first bought in 1989. For this exercise, I looked at a small section of Cambrian Park, cloe to Leigh High School. Homes for this view are around 40 years old and appx 1200-1300 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Below please see a 10 year view of such a home, with numbers taken from September of each year dating back to 1998. (To give a little more of a perspective, we bought our home in late 1989 at $180 per SF. Values dropped about 10-15% over the next few years – a long, slow slide in values – and finally recovered by the mid 1990′s and then took off. Prices doubled about a dozen years after we bought, but we had sold before prices rose that far – which was a good thing since we got into our next home less expensively.)

The above graph includes ALL the solds in Sept 2008. But below, see what happens in 2008 if we only consider the non bank owned properties:

And finally, a graph showing both all of Cambrian Park sales for this time of each year as well as this starter home subset of homes there over ten years (please excuse the numbers that sometimes land on each other):

The above graph only goes to 2001 since it’s difficult to get the price per SF data prior to that without spending a lot of time crunching the numbers, but you get the idea. The numbers are more generous when going back further in time, as the charts further up display. For the most part, thouse who “buy and hold” for a more than 5 years have done fine in this market. Those who bought 10 years ago have about doubled their investment. For those who bought and needed to sell soon after, it is a huge problem. But that is actually the case in most markets, whether a buyers or sellers market.

So to return to the original question, “what CAN we do to maximize the current situation?”, I would say that if possible, where real estate is concerned, look into ways you can “buy and hold” rather than buy and sell over short periods of time. This will not be possible for everyone, but just selling now (rather than also buying) could be a case of “selling low”. However, if you are doing a move-up, this could be an ideal time because even if you are selling low, there’s a good chance that you are more than making up for it on the next home – plus you get the lower price basis for taxes and other costs connected to sales price.

Thinking of buying a home in Silicon Valley? The old adage about location still holds. Buy the most home in the best area you can afford. What to beware? Disfunctional floor plans, homes in need of major renovations (foundation, roof, other big-ticket items). House in bad area vs townhouse in good area – go with the location, generally (but you’ll have to evaluate everything).

Of course, “don’t sell now” is the same advice our financial planner is giving us with retirement money in the markets. Retirement isn’t around the corner for us, so I’m just going to not worry about it right now. I wish we had the same luxury with the college fund! I am hoping that it will bounce back up before our kids have graduated from college, so we won’t have invested and taken a loss. I’ve been watching YahooFinance for a few weeks now and the market keeps bouncing within a range that’s far lower than where we bought into the college plan’s index fund before. “Big sale on college plan index fund!” is one way to look at it. I think one of the ways I’ll cope with this market is to buy more shares. Yes, they might go down further. But it seems to me that this is a “low” price point, and while it’s a little scary to buy in this type of market, it’s probably a great opportunity too.

Another blog post on the general state of things in Silicon Valley that is worth reading:
Silicon Valley: Financial Crisis or Opportunity by attorney Mark Radcliffe