Next week I’ll be putting a Willow Glen house on the market so have been paying attention to the trends & statistics for this charming part of San Jose.  Here’s a look at the absorption rate for Willow Glen houses and duet homes (numbers run yesterday) by price band.

Willow Glen Months of Inventory June 17 2010

My Real Estate Report provides numbers (which I don’t have to crunch!) on a monthly basis for all of Santa Clara County, including the Willow Glen (area 10, mostly 95125) part of San Jose.  It’s a good, broad view of the Willow Glen market overall.  Here’s the summary for the  May 2010 Real Estate Report for Willow Glen – June’s info will be out sometime in early July. Click on the link to get all the data rather than just this quick view.

The Willow Glen real estate market trends are up month over month for the median & average sales prices, but the average sales price is still down year over year.  Pendings are down compared to April (possibly a reaction to the federal home buyer tax credit?) and year over year.  The list price to sales price ratio is up, though, and the days on market are shorter.

Looking at both sets of numbers, mine and the REReport’s, it is clear that the homes priced up to about $900,000 are the ones leading the recovery, and that the most expensive homes are not selling well at all.  When we began to see improvement in the market, it was first entry level houses that were selling well.  Eventually it spread to the move-up market, both here and throughout Silicon Valley.  Will it continue?  The very high end homes in Santa Clara County are selling much better than they were a year ago, but as you can see, there’s still loads of room for improvement for the luxury homes market.

Last week my husband, Jim Handy, took a few photos from the parking lot os the Church on the Hill in San Jose’s Willow Glen district. He was taken with the clouds and thought they’d make great photographs.

This first view looks across Silicon Valley toward Los Gatos with the view of the Santa Cruz Mountains ahead.  The low point in the hills on the right side is where the town of Los Gatos sits (it’s where Highway 17 goes through the mountains to the coast).  These areas near the coastal range are often referred to as “the west valley”.

The next one is a view toward downtown San Jose and Silicon Valley generally. The hills on the right are the east foothills.

How many of the Silicon Valley homes for sale are listed as short sales? How many are bank owned properties? This morning I did some time pulling the numbers out for my readers so that you can see the actual real estate figures.

What’s being counted below are homes for sale, including houses, duet homes, condominiums and townhouses (or townhomes) in the various areas of Santa Clara County listed below.

As was the case a year or two ago, most of the short sale activity is taking place in the most affordable price ranges. The higher priced areas are not immune, though – but because there are fewer distressed properties to choose from, they get purchased rather quickly, so we’d see a higher percentage of them among the pending sales rather than the available listings.

Today I did a post on this subject focusing specifically on the Los Gatos real estate market in terms of short sales today vs the last couple of years (and the question of whether or not the trend is to rising numbers of short sales available). To learn more, visit the article on my Live in Los Gatos blog.

For bargain hunting buyers of high end properties, then, it’s slim pickings!  In the entry level areas, there’s much more selection but also lots of competition.  Last week I was involved with some buyers in a bidding frenzy in a terribly underpriced Cambrian short sale: it got 43 offers!  (So please remember that the list price may be completely unrelated to the sales price.)

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in Silicon Valley, it helps to have the assistance of a Realtor with a pulse on the market.  Please contact me for a confidential & no-obligation meeting today!

Beautiful Willow Glen is one of San Jose’s many districts, but it once was a separate town until less than a hundred years ago, when the need for a better sewage system nudged the townfolk to vote in favor of annexation to San Jose.  It maintains a strong & independent identity.

To speak of “the Willow Glen real estate market” is to try to include divergent neighborhoods, school districts, architecture, price points and locations. Below please find a general overview of the market for Willow Glen houses & duet homes as of March 20, 2010. (Numbers from MLSListings.com, crunched by Mary Pope-Handy. Homes listed as “sold” were closed within the last 30 days – as of today.)

The months of inventory indicates that it is a seller’s market in Willow Glen (less than 6 months is the tipping point) overall.  Please note that there’s some variation, though, from one school district to the next.  You’ll also find variation between price points, whether or not the home is distressed, etc.

Schools:  most of Willow Glen belongs to the San Jose Unified School District.  A small section of Willow Glen is a part of the Campbell Union High School District.  (CUHSD has pretty good schools so this area is often prized for that reason.) And a tiny little sliver actually belongs to the East Side Union High School District – very few homes fall into this section so it’s not addressed specifically.

Areas: Willow Glen has many neighborhoods within it, ranging from Palm Haven and north Willow Glen to the Birdlands and the Willows at another and many others inbetween.  There are some areas more prized than others, of course.  Being close to the downtown area (and away from freeways, for instance) can dramatically increase the sales price and marketability of the home.   Certain neighborhoods have more charming architecture, larger trees along the street, wider roads or other plusses that drive their value up.

Price points and selling conditions:  In addition to these factors, we also must consider the price point of the home as well as whether a home is being sold without undue pressure or if it is a distressed sale, that is, a bank owned or short sale.  Regular sales usually sell for more (and buyers know that normally they will be given both disclosures and presale inspections prior to drafting their purchase offer).

In most of Silicon Valley, the “hottest” segment of the market is the most affordable.  For a closer look at this subset of the San Jose real estate market, I have broken it down into major groups, the first one being homes priced below $729,000 (which is close to the “conforming jumbo” loan cutoff).  Below, please notice that there is a significant difference between the months of inventory from one school district to the next as well as one sale type to the next.  In Willow Glen right now, the sweet spot of the market are homes priced under $729,000 and located in the Campbell Union High School District (not San Jose Unified). 

If we look at the next pricing tier of $729,000 to $1,200,000, we see that things cool off considerably. This is true in most of the rest of Santa Clara County, too.  The lowest priced houses are tending to sell the best right now.

In this tier, the months of inventory are much longer overall and in some cases, there have been no recent sales and the prospects are fairly dismal. The odds are improved for this group if the home is a “normal sale”, at least.

And what of the highest priced homes in Willow Glen? This is the toughest market overall.

With an average months of inventory of 10.67 for all school districts or 9.33 months for San Jose Unified, it is a real challenge to get a high end home sold in Willow Glen today. The Willow Glen Luxury home market saw just 3 homes closed last month.  The only way for these homes to sell is to get the price to a painful level for the sellers, unfortunately.  Buyers want a bargain – and they are voting with their feet, deciding that most of what’s on the market in this price point in Willow Glen is overpriced.

It is very important for home sellers to be realistic when pricing their homes.  Setting the offering price where you’d like it to be is not a smart strategy.  If your segment of the market has 10 months of inventory, you have got to seriously undercut the rest of the homes to get yours sold!

Buyers, if you are hoping to scoop up a Willow Glen bargain by finding a short sale or bank owned property, you’d better be ready to act fast if one comes on the market in your price range. As you can see, there aren’t many of them – and they’re selling fast!  You may be able to find a “regular sale” for a bit more – the delta between regular sales and short sales is often 10-20%, depending on a lot of variables.  Even among the regular sales, in the lowest priced houses in this area, they aren’t lasting too long.  The good ones go fast!

If you’d like to have a better understanding of your area within Willow Glen, please call me for a confidential appointment.

Legalese:  this post and content, like all entries on this blog, are copyrighted. Do not copy without my express, written permission.

The tide is turning for Silicon Valley real estate: fewer listings are coming onto the market and more homes are being purchased by homebuyers anxious to get into a house before interest rates rise and the $8000 first time homebuyer’s credit expires.

The shift is most visible in areas with the most affordability, but even is more upscale, higher priced areas, it’s still a noticeable change.

Today I’ll share with you a series of graphs, by area, of single family homes in terms of new listings, current inventory, and pending sales (sales under contract).  These were created using our mls system (information deemed reliable but not guaranteed).

Here’s the “key” (since if I put it alongside each image it would not fit without making all of it unreadable):

Description of each graph is ABOVE the image.

Almaden Valley (95120 area of San Jose) - this is a more expensive part of Santa Clara County, but the market improvement is very clear. Cool market.

Blossom Valley (95123 and 95136 zip codes, an area of San Jose) – this is a very affordable part of Silicon Valley and has taken a huge hit on the “price rollback”.  But it’s getting better now – note the rise in sales, low number of new homes coming on the market and overall lessening of inventory. Number of pendings is almost the same as the total inventory. Hot market.

Cambrian Park (95124 & 95118 area of San Jose) – trends among listings, inventory, and sales for single family homes. The trend of less inventory and more sales is quite evident. Warm market overall – very hot under $500,000, cool in higher price ranges. (But hot only if prices are deeply reduced.)

Campbell (zip code 95008) – sales are up, new listings are declining, overall inventory is getting absorbed.

Cupertino – upscale Cupertino has improvement with numbers of sales and new listings are dropping off a bit, resulting in a slight trend change.

Evergreen – the Evergreen area of San Jose is a mix.  Parts are very expensive and some are very middle-class or entry level. This is one of the most dramatic change in available inventory anywhere in Santa Clara County. New listings are nearly non-existent and there are nearly as many pendings as there are available homes. The “good odds” and low level of oncoming listings probably has a lot to do with the deep pricing cuts there.  Many sellers would rather wait then sell now. Very warm to hot market in lower price ranges.

Los Gatos (area “16″ which also includes Monte Sereno) -  The same trend can be seen for increased numbers of sales, but on a lesser scale. If we were to break this down by price point and school district, though, we’d find that there’s a big difference from place to place within Los Gatos. There are many “micro markets” in the town. Biggest challenge: overpriced homes that aren’t selling because the buyers simply won’t pay that much today for most of the homes on the market. Cold Market

Monte Sereno is a very pricey part of Santa Clara County.  With just about 4000 residents, it is often viewed the same as Los Gatos but it’s a bit more expensive. Overall inventory is declinging, but sales are not robust and new listings keep coming.  Homebuyers, if you ever wanted to buy in Monte Sereno, now’s the time!  Cold Market

Santa Teresa – entry level area of San Jose – more affordable homes, better price cuts – homes are selling. Market is hot!

Santa Clara -Santa Clara is a middle class city in the heart of Silicon Valley, with a diversity of areas, housing types, and price points from entry level to mid-range. It’s a good guage of how the valley’s doing as a whole.  In the graph below, it is very clear that pendings are increasing (yellow), total inventory is decreasing slightly (orange) and new listings are not running rampant (red). This is fairly reflective of Santa Clara County as a whole. Overall market in Santa Clara is cool but improving.

Saratoga – like Monte Sereno, this cute city by the foothills is not for thin pocketbooks. While prices haven’t been pulled down severely, the numbers of sales are way down and new listings are still fairly high. Inventory is not being absorbed too well.  Of course, if prices would be dropped a bit, sales would pick up, but many sellers are hoping to wait it out.  Cold Market

Willow Glen – this quaint part of town features homes with a wide variety of styles, from those with unique, craftsman, Victorian, Spanish, mid-century modern or historic architecture to small bungalows and ranchette homes. Except in lowest price ranges, market is cool but improving.

In conclusion, the “Silicon Valley Real Estate Market” varies from place to place and price point to price point, but the overall trend is improving in terms of the number of sales and overall supply/demand.  It’s really a split market, though. The lowest priced homes that are cute and priced well are flying off the market with multiple offers.  The higher priced homes that are “testing the market” are just sitting.  The lowest priced homes are now being driven UP, but the highest priced homes, in most areas, are still being pulled DOWN.

Located along the Guadalupe River and adjacent to downtown San Jose and resting against the borders of Campbell and the Cambrian Park area of San Jose, Willow Glen is a very charming, older part of San Jose and Silicon Valley that seems to beckon to a more gracious time.

The area’s centerpiece is Lincoln Avenue, a street bustling with cars and pedestrians alike. It’s filled to the brim with restaurants and shops and seems to attract a never-ending strea of visitors, especially in summer and during the holidays.

This place has a great sense of community and history too. Willow Glen was once its own town, until the need for being hooked up to the sewer system proved prohibitively expensive, and the residents voted to be annexed to San Jose in the 1920s. Ask someone from this district where he or she is from, and you won’t hear “San Jose”, but rather “Willow Glen”. It’s expected that you will know where that is!

Lovely, Older Architecture is a Hallmark of the Willow Glen area of San Jose

Much of Willow Glen was built early in the 1900s and so the homes in the “downtown” area are older and feature classical styles of housing on tree lined streets – Spanish, Craftsman, and some even more venerable and Victorian. That is surely a large part of its charm. On the edges of Willow Glen, the homes are newer and tract. One area, known as Palm Haven, has a myriad of palm trees (both Royal Palm and Fan Palm) and older, diverse architecture surrounding a community park. The original access to Palm Haven from Bird Avenue and the rest of Willow Glen has been blocked off, but the grand old road can still be found easily enough via Clintonia off Riverside.

In addition to the unique architecture and the draw of Lincoln Avenue in “downtown Willow Glen”, there are other features that make Willow Glen popular for visitors and those who want to live there too. One is the community involvement and the love of the arts. There are festivals and free music concerts and they are a popular draw! The pace seems to be a little slower here. Is it really? I’m not sure, but just seeing that people slow down enough to play Bocce Ball at a neighborhood park convinces me that things somehow just aren’t as hectic here.

The Christmas season is special in Willow Glen, as many neighbors decorate their front yards with a single Christmas tree and lights. Other homes are fully decked out to the extreme. Some cold nights in December, traffic comes to a near standstill in this old enclave of San Jose, as folks drive in from miles to take in the holiday lights on the residential streets. It is by far the most scenic area of Santa Clara County during the holidays!

Willow Glen has a social conscience, too. There are organizations of religious groups, faiths and churches which meet to address social justice issues. One of the most popular sources of food for the hungry of Silicon Valley is the amazing Second Harvest Food Bank of Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties. This is a full-circle kind of thing as Willow Glen was once very famous for the fabulous orchards that fed the Santa Clara County. It is probably no accident that the garden next to Second Harvest Food Bank includes fruit trees!

Looking for a quaint place to live that’s close to downtown San Jose but feels like a whole different place? Spend some time in Willow Glen. It will charm you!