Bel Estos Drive near Carlton and Rosswood in San Jose's Cambrian areaMy Cambrian area of San Jose Real Estate Report was recently published with the updated numbers from the closed sales last month for this part of San Jose (95124 and 95118 with a little of 95008 too). Please click on the link above to see much more information there. Those charts are below.

First, though, I want to share some info that I pulled from the MLS last night. It does appear that Cambrian home prices have come down quite a bit since the peak of pricing in March.  For home sellers wondering why their properties aren’t selling as quickly, this may be helpful. Also it’s good info for those thinking of selling their houses or condos in this second half of 2018.

The very best way to know what the market is doing is to track the same house as it sells and re-sells. However, most home owners don’t move often, so that is not helpful to us. The next best method is to find very similar properties and track them. That would be such as all condos in a large development with approximately the same floor plan / size.

Cambrian often mimics the valley as a whole pretty well, so I thought I would pull up a representative sample from a hot segment of the market to get my own sense of how things are going. I pulled starter homes with Campbell Union High School District, zip code 95124, with 1000 – 1500 SF, 3-4 bedrooms and 2+ baths.

Here are the averages from March to today:

March 2018 (10 sales)  average price per SF $1,100.53  average sale price $1,429,612
April 2018 (15 sales)     average price per SF $1,138.75  average sale price $1,417,000
May 2018 (14 sales)      average price per SF $1,076.54  average sale price $1,375,643
June 2018 (10 sales)     average price per SF   $980.64  average sale price  $1,258,550 (steepest drop from the month before)
July 2018 (12 sales)       average price per SF   $974.35  average sale price  $1,232,958
August 2018 – only 2 closed sales so far, too little data to be helpful

That is a drop in the average sale price of $196,654 over 4 months for this group, or about $49,163.50 per month on average (though some months it is more or less). The data here uses a fairly small pool, so it may not be accurate for all parts of Cambrian, but it is an indicator of what the market is doing overall since this is a very in-demand segment of Cambrian.

If we input this into excel and ask it to generate a forecast through January (which assumes the same rate of change, which may NOT be true), it looks like this – sellers please note, THIS IS WHAT BUYERS ARE THINKING AS THE WAIT TO BID:

Graphic Cambrian forecast

Now I need to remind everyone that the market is often not a straight line. Let’s stop and take a look at the county’s sales (average and median prices) to get a sense of that. Although the general trend for the last few years has been upward, please see that there are MANY drops, particularly in the second half of each year.

Chart of Santa Clara County single family home prices and sales 2009 to the present

As is evident, seasonally, the market does often flatten or decline somewhat in the second half of each year. The peak is most often in spring sometime. Very often, the peak is in March (again, that means sales the month before, which is February, and that means getting your house all ready in January).  So let’s say that the market does drop at the current rate, in January 2019, this hypothetical Cambrian home would be selling at about $886,000, prior to the possible spring surge in pricing. To get the lowest price means buying in December, not buying in January, most likely. But – December also typically has the lowest inventory, so not much selection. For that reason, if you like a home now, I would suggest buying that home now. Buying a home for yourself and your family is not like buying a stock. You are going to live in it, so you will want to like it. I have seen many buyers try to time the market and end up going through December since they hated what was available, and then they got caught buying in the spring madness, and they paid more.

But who knows if prices will rebound in early 2019 or not. Who knows if prices will continue dropping this year. Some years, we have seen drops followed by rapid appreciation. Last year, prices rose through December, confusing everyone. This could be the beginning of a correction, or it could be a seasonal cool down – a gift for wearing Cambrian home buyers.

If it’s the beginning of a correction, buying now does not make sense unless you plan to be in your home for 10 years or so. If it is a seasonal experience, or a blip, then buying this fall is a good idea, since the new year is very likely to see prices move back up.

Which is it? I do not know for sure. The CEO of my company thinks that prices will trail off for the rest of this year, and then return to their upward march in the spring of 2019 (think Feb – April). When I see the hiring, the Google expansion, I know that people have to live somewhere. It may be a standoff between sellers and buyers on price. My usual advice is simple: if you are ready to get on with your life, and you’re going to stay there 5 or 10 years, buying now most likely makes sense.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,260,000 (-4.0%) $1,312,500 $1,140,000 (+10.5%)
Average Price $1,311,880 (-5.3%) $1,385,810 $1,178,450 (+11.3%)
No. of Sales 57 (-1.7%) 58 77 (-26.0%)
Pending 52 (0.0%) 52 61 (-14.8%)
Active 70 (+42.9%) 49 22 (+218.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.1% (-5.5%) 111.2% 107.9% (-2.6%)
Days on Market 17 (+39.4%) 12 19 (-11.0%)
Days of Inventory 37 (+50.4%) 25 (+329.8%)

 

And from the month before:

Trends At a Glance Jun 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,312,500 (-6.0%) $1,396,000 $1,101,000 (+19.2%)
Average Price $1,385,810 (-2.8%) $1,425,020 $1,117,310 (+24.0%)
No. of Sales 58 (-19.4%) 72 64 (-9.4%)
Pending 52 (-3.7%) 54 72 (-27.8%)
Active 49 (0.0%) 49 40 (+22.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 111.2% (-2.0%) 113.4% 108.5% (+2.5%)
Days on Market 12 (+16.3%) 10 12 (+2.8%)
Days of Inventory 25 (+20.0%) 20 18 (+35.2%)

And the chart from the month before that (usually I only show 2 months, but I think seeing more data is helpful when the market turns):

 

Trends At a Glance May 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,396,000 (-2.4%) $1,430,000 $1,100,000 (+26.9%)
Average Price $1,425,020 (-2.1%) $1,456,070 $1,103,120 (+29.2%)
No. of Sales 72 (+10.8%) 65 57 (+26.3%)
Pending 54 (-3.6%) 56 56 (-3.6%)
Active 49 (+44.1%) 34 31 (+58.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 113.4% (-2.1%) 115.9% 105.8% (+7.2%)
Days on Market 10 (+13.4%) 9 13 (-21.7%)
Days of Inventory 20 (+34.6%) 15 16 (+25.1%)

 

Generally speaking, despite the cooling, it is still a seller’s market and a decent time to sell a Cambrian home.

 Please see the whole Cambrian Real Estate Report for charts, stats and more.
Other related Cambrian district resources:
Learn about the Cambrian months of inventory, or absorption rate, by elementary school district.

The condo and townhouse real estate market for San Jose 95124 & 95118

The townhouse and condo real estate market in San Jose’s Cambrian area – Lower inventory can make the market look unbalanced, but it’s not always so. With such low inventory big swings in data are common. The numbers are not a large enough group to be truly representative of market values. Nevertheless, there are some clear trends. The average days on market remains low at 8 days. Sales to list price has returned to 117.2% above list price. This means homes are still regularly selling above list price in far below a month, and has been doing so consistently for many months, making this a stable, strong seller’s market.

The Real Estate Report for condo sales

Here, the number of sales is VERY small, so the numbers can appear to be a bit wonky. The best way to check these numbers is to simply check the sales in the same or similar community from a year ago and from the prior month.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Jul 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $835,000 (+11.3%) $750,000 $536,500 (+55.6%)
Average Price $827,951 (+1.4%) $816,794 $587,357 (+41.0%)
No. of Sales 19 (+11.8%) 17 14 (+35.7%)
Pending 11 (-26.7%) 15 12 (-8.3%)
Active 13 (+225.0%) 4 (+160.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.3% (-1.3%) 105.6% 104.7% (-0.5%)
Days on Market 17 (+10.5%) 15 10 (+65.4%)
Days of Inventory 21 (+200.8%) 7 11 (+91.6%)

 

From June:

 

Trends At a Glance Jun 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $750,000 (-5.7%) $795,000 $527,500 (+42.2%)
Average Price $816,794 (+3.3%) $790,333 $571,953 (+42.8%)
No. of Sales 17 (+88.9%) 9 15 (+13.3%)
Pending 15 (0.0%) 15 17 (-11.8%)
Active (-50.0%) 8 (-20.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.6% (-5.0%) 111.2% 104.9% (+0.7%)
Days on Market 15 (+40.5%) 11 10 (+51.9%)
Days of Inventory (-74.4%) 27 10 (-29.4%)

 

And the May:

 

Trends At a Glance May 2018 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $795,000 (-12.7%) $911,000 $719,000 (+10.6%)
Average Price $790,333 (-7.6%) $855,800 $639,905 (+23.5%)
No. of Sales (-10.0%) 10 21 (-57.1%)
Pending 15 (+114.3%) 7 14 (+7.1%)
Active (+33.3%) 6 (-11.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 111.2% (-2.9%) 114.5% 104.3% (+6.6%)
Days on Market 11 (-34.8%) 17 10 (+13.2%)
Days of Inventory 27 (+53.3%) 17 13 (+107.4%)

 

Want to learn more about Cambrian Park real estate, the Cambrian district, Cambrian neighborhoods, school districts and zip codes? Please also see this article: Cambrian Park: Good Schools, Low Crime, Close to Los Gatos and Campbell. Cambrian neighborhoods can be located at the menu bar: Neighborhoods –> San Jose (all areas) –> Cambrian Park (SJ).

Be sure to read to the end to see the live Altos charts too – they are near the end of the article so please keep reading into the next page!

Please see the Cambrian Condominium & Townhouse Real Estate Report for all of the numbers in this area and the rest of Santa Clara County!

Now let’s work with Altos Research’s graphs and get a feel for the Cambrian realty market in “real time.” These use list prices, whereas my REReport uses sold data. First, the statistics by quartile for houses in San Jose 95118. A quick note: most of 95118 has San Jose Unified Schools, while 95124 has Cambrian and Union schools, which are normally preferred.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Next, the stats and trends by price quartile for houses in San Jose 95124: In 95124 we didn’t see the big departure from growth as seen in the rest of the zip as we saw in 95118 for early summer. But we do see very consistently rising prices throughout the area, with the higher priced homes appearing to have peaked and turned around. Median list price of homes for sale in 95124 and 95118 (all quartiles combined) :

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

As this graph indicates, homes in 95124 tend to sell for a bit more than those in 95118. In part, this is probably due to the fact that 95124 is in the Union and Cambrian School Districts, which many prefer to San Jose Unified (though part of 95118 is not in SJUSD). Part of it may have to do with some of the homes being on the Los Gatos border, which is highly desirable. And much of 95124 is a better commute location, with faster access to freeways. Inventory in Cambrian area of San Jose 95124:

 

95118: Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Want to buy or sell in Cambrian Park? Please call or email me – let’s talk! Want more info on your neighborhood, your house, or your target home to buy? Please call me!

Browse real estate listings of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale San Jose 95118:

  1. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,420 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,054 sqft
  2. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,008 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,139 sqft
  3. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,313 sq ft
    Lot size: 4,408 sqft
  4. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,400 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,934 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 1,136 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,845 sqft

See all Real estate in the 95118 zip code.
(all data current as of 8/20/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

  1. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,420 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,054 sqft
  2. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,008 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,139 sqft
  3. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,313 sq ft
    Lot size: 4,408 sqft
  4. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,400 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,934 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 1,136 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,845 sqft

See all Real estate in the 95118 zip code.
(all data current as of 8/20/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Find a Cambrian home: real estate listings of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale in San Jose 95124:

  1. 3 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 1,060 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,000 sqft
  2. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,965 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,451 sqft
  3. 3 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 1,073 sq ft
    Lot size: 8,276 sqft
  4. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 2,173 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,810 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,060 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,216 sqft

See all Real estate in the 95124 zip code.
(all data current as of 8/20/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

  1. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,420 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,054 sqft
  2. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,008 sq ft
    Lot size: 7,139 sqft
  3. 3 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,313 sq ft
    Lot size: 4,408 sqft
  4. 4 beds, 2 baths
    Home size: 1,400 sq ft
    Lot size: 6,934 sqft
  5. 3 beds, 1 bath
    Home size: 1,136 sq ft
    Lot size: 5,845 sqft

See all Real estate in the 95118 zip code.
(all data current as of 8/20/2018)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 

Love Cambrian?Learn more about it here!

 

See also:  Cambrian Park homes for sale

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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
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