The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update
Every couple of weeks I update this post to bring fresh news and data on the Cambrian Park real estate market. On Dec 9th I went onto the MLS and ran the “months of inventory” or absorption rate of houses and duet homes (what our MLS calls “class 1″) in “area 14″ or Cambrian area of San Jose. This time I broke it down into price points as well as the type of sale (regular, short sale, bank owned) so you can pinpoint the pricing for the various segments of the Cambrian market. (Reminder: months of inventory reflects how long it will take to sell a property if sales continue at the current rate. Six months or so is considered “balanced”. More is a buyer’s market and less is a seller’s.)
**please note – typo below – numbers were crunched December 9th, 2011, not December 10th.
Cambrian Park (San Jose) Months of Inventory by sale type & price point Dec 9, 2011
What’s selling? “Regular sales” – non distressed. Not faring so well? Short sales. In many price points, although many are under contract or pending, FEW – sometimes none – are making it to the closing table. We are hearing a lot about the streamlined processes for short sales, but these numbers hint at a different reality, namely that Silicon Valley and Cambrian short sales sell but often don’t close escrow.
What is the typical kind of home and price for these neighborhoods? Of the homes which transferred ownership in the last 30 days, a typical house cost about $600,000, has about 1600 square feet and sits on a lot of around 6700 square feet (and is “partially updated”, not fully remodeled). The price per square foot averaged $376 but ran from $205 (distressed and on a hugely busy road) to $513 (close to the hills near Almaden and Los Gatos). If the home you want to buy or sell needs remodeling or is “all original” it’s probably going to sell for less. If it’s in a great area, is a regular sale and absolutely turnkey and fully remodeled, it’ll sell for more. A beautifully remodeled Cambrian house with 3 bed, 2 bath and 1200 square feet can easily run $600,000 or more if it’s a regular sale and in a good area with no “issues” (high voltage lines, backing to busy road or school etc.).
What about the pending sales?
As of this morning, there are 95 houses & duet homes which are sale pending. Of those, 39 are regular sales (a mere 41%!), 48 are short sales and 8 are bank owned properties (REOs). How do the pendings compare to the homes sold? Here’s a quick breakdown for all price ranges in “area 14″ of San Jose:
ALL types Pending – 95 Sold in last 30 days – 37
Regular sales – 39 Sold in last 30 days – 32
Short sales - 48 Sold in last 30 days – 1
Bank owned sales – 8 Sold in last 30 days – 2
This underlines the fact that the short sales are getting into contract…but just not getting to the closing table! Bank owned homes are better, but the ratio of pendings to closings is much, much better with regular sales. This explains why the regular sales are the hottest ticket in Cambrian Park right now: buyers don’t want to just buy, they want to close!
Some sellers are borderline on being able to sell without either having to bring cash to the closing table or having to attempt a short sale. What do these numbers suggest? That if you really want to sell and can do it – you may be best off doing a regular sale, even if you need to bring money to the title company to make it work. (This is general advice only, your own situation may be different – please consult with your Realtor, lawyer and tax advisor before deciding to do, or not to do, a short sale.)
Here’s a snapshot view what was happening in the 95124 and 95118 areas of San Jose as of December 2nd, 2011. (My last update for this part of San Jose - a mini update.)
Cambrian Park (San Jose) quick real estate stats for houses Dec 2, 2011
Interestingly, the hottest segment of this market is not the distressed sales, but regular ones, which are being absorbed three times as fast as the short sales or bank owned homes on the market. And it’s understandable: REOs don’t provide any disclosures and may contain surprises after close of escrow, and short sales may never close. Just look at the huge number of pendings as opposed to the short sales which actually become a finalized transaction! We hear that the odds are improving on short sales closing, but this graph doesn’t validate that impression at all.
Cambrian San Jose Real Estate Trends & Statistics for Sold Homes
It’s been a “hot sellers market” in the Cambrian district of San Jose for many months now with most homes that sell going fairly close to list price (1-2% off on average). That doesn’t mean that the best idea is to always offer less than list price, though, as many homes are selling at or above list price.
If we took a close look at what’s selling and closed recently, we would find that some Cambrian houses are selling for more than list price, some right at list price and others below or well under the offered price. Some Cambrian real estate is listed strategically low in order to get multiple offers and drive the price up. Some are overpriced and others are priced “right on the money”.
Data on real estate solds in Cambrian area of San Jose, for November, October, September and August 2011 among houses from my Real Estate Report:
| Trends At a Glance | Nov 2011 | Previous Month | Year-over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $579,500 | $552,000 (+5.0%) | $600,000 (-3.4%) |
| Average Price | $613,950 | $569,068 (+7.9%) | $613,807 (0.0%) |
| No. of Sales | 42 | 37 (+13.5%) | 55 (-23.6%) |
| Pending Properties | 76 | 85 (-10.6%) | 91 (-16.5%) |
| Active | 91 | 97 (-6.2%) | 135 (-32.6%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 98.2% | 97.8% (+0.4%) | 97.2% (+1.0%) |
| Days on Market | 52 | 71 (-27.3%) | 63 (-17.7%) |
Next, October:
| Trends At a Glance | Oct 2011 | Previous Month | Year-over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $552,000 | $555,000 (-0.5%) | $626,250 (-11.9%) |
| Average Price | $569,068 | $570,058 (-0.2%) | $613,760 (-7.3%) |
| No. of Sales | 37 | 43 (-14.0%) | 38 (-2.6%) |
| Pending Properties | 85 | 71 (+19.7%) | 105 (-19.0%) |
| Active | 97 | 116 (-16.4%) | 143 (-32.2%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 97.8% | 98.5% (-0.7%) | 98.7% (-1.0%) |
| Days on Market | 71 | 46 (+54.0%) | 44 (+60.2%) |
September:
| Trends At a Glance | Sep 2011 | Previous Month | Year-over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $555,000 | $566,250 (-2.0%) | $599,950 (-7.5%) |
| Average Price | $570,058 | $602,269 (-5.3%) | $616,848 (-7.6%) |
| No. of Sales | 43 | 50 (-14.0%) | 49 (-12.2%) |
| Pending Properties | 71 | 83 (-14.5%) | 77 (-7.8%) |
| Active | 116 | 112 (+3.6%) | 157 (-26.1%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 98.5% | 98.1% (+0.4%) | 99.2% (-0.8%) |
Next, August (note that prices were higher, pending prices were higher in August as opposed to September).
| Trends At a Glance | Aug 2011 | Previous Month | Year-over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $566,250 | $556,000 (+1.8%) | $615,000 (-7.9%) |
| Average Price | $602,269 | $593,278 (+1.5%) | $643,213 (-6.4%) |
| No. of Sales | 50 | 31 (+61.3%) | 41 (+22.0%) |
| Pending Properties | 83 | 89 (-6.7%) | 84 (-1.2%) |
| Active | 112 | 113 (-0.9%) | 153 (-26.8%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 98.1% | 98.5% (-0.4%) | 99.5% (-1.4%) |
| Days on Market | 36 | 27 (+31.5%) | 52 (-31.4%) |
Inventory is down about 32% from a year ago. Prices are down, too, both year over year and month over month. Even so, the Cambrian real estate market is fairly hot, a good strong seller’s market as long as homes are priced well, staged well, and marketed well. That doesn’t mean that every home is selling, but those which are nicely staged and marketed and correctly priced are selling at a good pace – and many of them get multiple offers, as the overbids attest.
Just now I checked what has closed in the Cambrian area in the last 30 days. There were 36 houses that closed. Of them 9 sold over list price, a few sold right at list price but most sold under list (and a very few sold grossly lower).
Now let’s work with Altos Research’s graphs and get a feel for the Cambrian realty market in “real time”. These use list prices, whereas my REReport uses sold data.
First, the statistics by quartile for houses in San Jose 95118:
Next, the stats and trends by price quartile for houses in San Jose 95124:
Median list price of homes for sale in 95124 and 95118:
Very interesting that the 95124 pricing appears to be swinging upward while the 95118 pricing continues to go down. I believe that this is mainly because the schools in 95124 have been trending upward strongly with the API scores. Prices are also at a higher level, and those are less impacted by short sales and REOs countywide. So it may be the result of multiple factors. (95124 is about 2/3 of the Cambrian real estate market.)
Inventory in Cambrian area of San Jose 95124, 95118:
Surprising, isn’t it, to see how differently these two San Jose zip codes are behaving from each other?
Average days on Market in San Jose’s Cambrian area
And again, really different trends on these neighboring zips, both in Cambrian!
Another anecdotal story to share: Recently I closed the sale on my listing at 5114 Nerissa Way in Cambrian with Union Schools and Alta Vista in particular. We were listed at $579,000 and received 4 offers and sold at $585,000. Interestingly, we received 2 nearly identical “best” offers, both at $585,000. One was completely As Is and the other was almost As Is (they wanted a fumigation and pest clearance provided). That is usually a pretty good affirmation of market value, and the property did appraise at the sales price. The other two offers we got were below list price. One was all cash and it was extremely low. Buyers who are purchasing without financing sometimes misunderstand the type of discount that their all-cash status will get for them, so sometimes the worst offers are all cash and that was the case this time.
Want more info on your neighborhood, your house, or your target home to buy? Please call me!
Showing properties
1 - 5 of 60.
See more 95124 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of
2/8/2012)
-
$605,988 : 3840 Kirk Rd, San Jose3 beds, 2 full baths
-
$660,000 : 5015 Brewster Av, San Jose3 beds, 2 full baths
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$575,000 : 4204 Camden Av, San Jose3 beds, 2 full baths
-
$789,000 : 4360 Bloomfield Dr, San Jose5 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
-
$384,900 : 2540 Leigh Av, San Jose3 beds, 2 full baths
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
Showing properties
1 - 5 of 28.
See more 95118 zip code real estate.
(all data current as of
2/8/2012)
-
$575,000 : 3213 Gardendale Dr,4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
-
$489,900 : 1349 Lyonsville Ln, San Jose4 beds, 2 full baths
-
$499,000 : 3119 Santa Margarita Av, San Jose3 beds, 1 full bath
-
$430,000 : 1560 Hillsdale Av, San Jose4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
-
$534,888 : 3183 Cheshire Dr, San Jose3 beds, 2 full baths
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
Browse lists of Cambrian & Cambrian Park homes for sale:
Houses for sale in the 95118 part of Cambrian
Cambrian Park Houses for Sale in 95124
Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: “Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley”
408 204-7673 (Cell)
emailto: Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com & www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com
Tags: Absorption Rate, buy a home, Cambrian, Cambrian Park (SJ), Cambrian Park Real Estate, Cambrian real estate, condos, days of inventory, days on the market, homes, homes for sale, houses, market, market conditions, Market Reports, Real estate, sales, san jose, Santa Clara County, sell a home, silicon valley, solds, Townhouses, trends
November 11th, 2011 at 8:27 am
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