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Are you motivated enough to buy a home?

Quote on being motivated and determined This is a tough market for home buyers. If you aren’t sufficiently motivated, you may write offers, but you won’t be buying a house.

I am a member of several online groups of Realtors and other real estate professionals who share ideas, give feedback, marketing, challenges, safety or tech tips, and more. Sometimes these groups are support for weary real estate agents.

Just now I read one agent in the deep south complain that her buyer won’t pay more than list price “on principle”, despite what the comparable sales indicate the value to be, despite the market conditions, 20 offers on a house, etc. She cannot get that buyer’s offer accepted because the buyer is staunch on offering exactly list price in every instance, and it’s just too low to be viable.

The real estate sales person has explained the market,  the competition, the sale to list price ratio, but the buyer does not care about the data. The buyer only wants to pay list price, even if the house is under priced.

Guess what the 200+ real estate professionals advised her to do? If you guessed “fire the buyer“, you’re right. And I agree. She is not able to help him to buy a house. She is spinning her wheels. (And while doing so, she’s unable to help buyers who will buy, or to find new business so she doesn’t go broke working on something hopeless. As a business person, she either needs to help the buyer to write viable offers or she needs to let him know that she cannot assist him further. She’s not doing him or herself any favors to continue working with him under those circumstances.) (more…)

The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The Monte Sereno real estate market is similar to Los Gatos, but distinct - Monte Sereno shares many features with Los Gatos but is a distinct cityHow is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4,000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. This article is updated monthly with new data and analysis, so scroll down to read the latest and check back regularly. Here are a few details from the latest market update:

  • Monte Sereno is currently in a strong seller’s market with some ups and downs in early autumn.
  • September sales data was skewed by some exceptional luxury home sales, more on that below.
  • Prolonged low inventory can’t keep up with demand, but may be aided by the new development around Austin Corners, Montalvo Oaks, which is slowly placing lots on the market.

Though we’ve seen plenty of changes to the market since March 2020, we won’t know the full impact until it’s behind us. For now you can read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my post on the topic.

Early on in the shutdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. So while current data is accurate, please disregard any DOM data for the dates mentioned above.

There are no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno at present (although we are watching the development at La Rinconada closely). One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (an online pdf):  http://www.montesereno.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/674

Below is a quick market profile for Monte Sereno. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.

Monte Sereno Altos Real-Time Market Profile

As of the latest update, October 14th, Monte Sereno is in a strong seller’s market and climbing after a recent dip in market action. Unlike other areas, this area didn’t experience the same cooling last spring as the rest of the valley, but continued to heat up through most of 2020. Winter of 2021 finally saw a cooling trend in this area, but it didn’t last long. Still, Monte Sereno has very few active listings, so the data for this chart can have large swings in data due to one or two outstanding properties.

Altos Research does weekly reports, to which I subscribe. You can see the full weekly report for Monte Sereno HERE and you can click the subscribe button there if you’d like to get it weekly (or navigate to another zip code or city and subscribe to that). Here’s the data on home descriptions per price quartile in the report, updated automatically throughout the month:

Median List Price for Monte Sereno By Altos

Prices are declining again after hitting a peak around April 2021. Spring of 2021 beat previous highs from the two prior springs, reaching prices that haven’t been seen since 2018. Seasonally typical cooling appears in the 2021 chart, and while prices remain high compared to 2019 they have fallen below 2020. That is mostly due to last year’s delayed spring activity. Early pandemic cooling is clearly visible in these charts, as is the resulting summer rise. Remember, low inventory and fewer sales mean greater swings in data.

Stats for recently closed home sales in Monte Sereno

Here are the quick statistics for the closed sales in the last complete month to give a sense of how things are going with the Monte Sereno real estate market. Sales data comes from my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report. Given that the supply of homes to study is tiny, what can we tell from this data?

It’s true that an average Monte Sereno house is about $2.5-3.5 million, and often higher – a little steep for most folks!

Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance:

This September had some wild swings! Small pools of data in this diverse market can shift the numbers very drastically very quickly, so it’s important to take this table with a grain of salt.

This month, data is based on only 4 closed sales, which is not uncommon in this community. The sale vs list price ratio shot up to 104.6% of asking, and days on market sped to only 10 days. Meanwhile prices skyrocketed from the month before and well above last year! But that may be due to one or two luxury sales and so few sales overall. Active inventory shrank month-over-month, still a little higher than last year.

The Monte Sereno housing market continues to have steady activity and remains in a seller’s market with regular demand.

Trends At a Glance Sep 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $6,550,000 (+31.3%) $4,990,000 $3,000,000 (+118.3%)
Average Price $6,350,000 (+20.8%) $5,255,830 $3,171,800 (+100.2%)
No. of Sales (-33.3%) 6 (-20.0%)
Pending 10 (+100.0%) 5 (+25.0%)
Active 10 (-16.7%) 12 (+25.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.6% (+3.8%) 100.7% 105.2% (-0.6%)
Days on Market 10 (-83.6%) 61 17 (-39.8%)
Days of Inventory 73 (+20.8%) 60 46 (+56.3%)

 

Those are some pretty dramatic shifts! So what happened? Well, today (October 14th) the MLS shows 6 properties sold in August. List prices ranged from over $2.65 million to just shy of $9.5 million, and sales ranged from over $2.57 to $9.1 million. Of those sales, half would be considered luxury properties: the three selling above $6 million. Those selling between $2.5 – $3.2 million would not be considered luxury homes in this market. That said, these luxury homes, the $9.1 million sale in particular, skew the numbers for the rest of the chart and do not offer a clear picture of what’s happening in a large part of the market. So take this chart with a grain of salt.

Because so few  houses sell per month, things like pricing can appear to jump around when that’s not actually the case. The Monte Sereno home prices tend to be a little higher but generally follow the Los Gatos trends, so it’s worth while to view this info also to get a more balanced sense of how things are for real estate in Monte Sereno. Also, for those considering buying or selling, it’s important to look at the actual listings for each and every sale with similar features, size, amenities to get a sense of your home’s particular subset of the market. Next, let’s look at the live charts from Altos to see how active listings reflect the market.

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Santa Teresa real estate market

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose - the proximity of parks will impact the Santa Teresa real estate market for that neighborhood

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market? The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable but offers lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time, making the area more desirable. These positives seem to be helping that area to hold its value well. Here are a few details from the latest monthly market update for Santa Teresa single family homes (read the full analysis below):

  • It’s a hot start to the autumn market in Santa Teresa, not far off from last month and much more competitive compared to last year.
  • Available inventory continues to shrink and can’t keep up with demand.
  • The average listing sold quickly in 13 days and at a high 107.9% of list price!

Santa Teresa (our MLS Area 2)  includes a small bit of the 95123 zip code, which is more expensive, but most of that zip code is Blossom Valley, so we will omit it. The 95138 zip code is about half Santa Teresa and half Evergreen (more expensive area), so take those numbers with a big grain of salt. I find the 95119 zip code to be most helpful, but even then, the school district is divided between Oak Grove and Morgan Hill.

Since the start of March 2020 there have been many changes affecting the real estate industry. We’re starting to have a better view of the impact of the pandemic on the local real estate markets, but it will take a while to get the full picture. For now, read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my other post. Thinking of listing your home in this hot seller’s market? It’s a great time to do so if you are prepared! Read more about how to sell your home in 2021 through the linked article.

At the start of the lockdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) temporarily stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory for the previous months, though current data is accurate.

Weekly update from Altos Research with a “market profile” of San Jose’s Santa Teresa area, zip code 95119 for single family homes / houses:

Santa Teresa of San Jose 95119 Real-Time Market Profile

With this week’s update (October 11th) the chart is steady in a strong seller’s market. Four active listings isn’t much, but it’s not atypical for the area. Small pools of data can make trend tracking less accurate. Sales are happening at breakneck speeds with an average of only 2 days on market! Altos shows a prolonged strong seller’s market in Santa Teresa 95119!

Weekly update from Altos Research with look at a glance of zip code 95138 for single family homes or houses:

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City of Santa Clara real estate market

Santa Clara real estate market - The Santa Clara Women's Club http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The Santa Clara Women’s Club (old adobe house)
http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The realty market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one in which the sellers have the upper hand, though it continues to be impacted by the pandemic and lingering demand. What is key for home sellers is to price and prepare their home for sale according to today’s real estate market. This article contains the latest updated data and analysis. Here are a few points from the monthly single family housing market in the City of Santa Clara that you’ll find in more detail below:

  • The September sale to list price ratio is a red hot 110.1% of asking.
  • Sales remain high while available inventory is just above half of what it was last year.
  • The average home took only 12 days on market to sell.

Thinking of selling your Silicon Valley home in 2021? Follow the previous link to my article on how to effectively sell your property in these unique times. It’s a blazing hot seller’s market in most of the South Bay!

The Real Estate Market for the City of Santa Clara

March 2020 brought some major changes that are affecting the market. While we are seeing how some of those impacts have changed the market in recent month’s it will take a while to see the full picture. To read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales, check my post on the topic.

At the start of the shutdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. That means the current data will be accurate, but disregard the data from March through May in those fields.

Below there are charts for the market activity over the last few months for single family homes in Santa Clara. Market activity has been high for months, and low inventory from the past two years with continuous low inventory around the rest of the Valley means there is still a greater demand to fill than properties available. Further down in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.

First, a market profile, automatically updated weekly, for the city of Santa Clara (these reports are available by zip code, too, and for condos/townhomes as well as single family dwellings). Check out the weekly Altos report HERE and click on subscribe to get weekly updates on all of Santa Clara or any particular zip code. (Scroll to the bottom and check out the profile of houses across 4 pricing quartiles – super interesting.)

Santa Clara Real-Time Market Profile

According to Altos, it’s a strong seller’s market right now with a rising market action after a recent decline, low days on market, and shrinking inventory.

Data from my Real Estate Report

Next, stats at a glance for the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes. See the statistics and trends for closings and listings for last month – updated each month on about the 5th – 10th on my RE Report site for realty stats & trends in Santa Clara:

Trends at a Glance

Last year, 2020 began with a hotter than usual winter market getting progressively hotter towards spring. Things started to change after March 2020 and the market was hit with some significant cooling at the start of shelter-in-place. As the country has begun to open up and easing restrictions for realty sales, all that pent up demand has fired up the market!

This September was another busy month for Santa Clara’s housing market! Closed sales and available inventory dipped below the month before, but pending sales held strong. Pending sales remain high compared to last year’s numbers, while closed sales fell short and active listings are only a drop in the bucket! The sales to list price ratio rose to 110.1% of asking. For a little perspective, this number usually rises through spring, but in 2020 this ratio fell from a whopping 111.8% in March to a low of 100.3% by June. Homes are taking just under 2 weeks to sell at an extremely quick 12 days on market.

High demand and low inventory are fueling a hot market in Santa Clara, which is experiencing another red hot spring market in 2021!

Trends At a Glance Sep 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,668,500 (+5.6%) $1,580,000 $1,412,500 (+18.1%)
Average Price $1,658,400 (-0.2%) $1,661,870 $1,465,000 (+13.2%)
No. of Sales 50 (-10.7%) 56 58 (-13.8%)
Pending 67 (+1.5%) 66 61 (+9.8%)
Active 26 (-7.1%) 28 45 (-42.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 110.1% (+0.1%) 110.0% 102.8% (+7.1%)
Days on Market 12 (+13.7%) 10 21 (-43.8%)
Days of Inventory 15 (+0.5%) 15 23 (-33.0%)

 

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The Evergreen area of San Jose

Evergreen area of San Jose (Silicon Valley)San Jose’s Evergreen district is in a strong seller’s market with extremely low active inventory. This article will examine the data from sales and active listings in this residential real estate market with live and monthly updates. Here are a few points from the latest Evergreen single family housing market update, provided in more detail below:

  • September sales moved quickly in around 1.5 weeks on average, taking just 11 days to sell.
  • The sales to list price ratio is a fiery 105.9% of asking with properties receiving multiple offers and overbids.
  • Sales remain sky high and available inventory can’t keep up!

The Evergreen area of San Jose  includes many newer homes and communities. It is a desirable Silicon Valley community as Evergreen is scenic and most of the district enjoys highly regarded schools, particularly at the elementary and middle school levels. In this article I’ll provide some information on this section of the valley as well as statistics and analysis on the current real estate market trends, which will be updated periodically. Just want the Evergreen real estate market update? Please scroll down!

Evergreen Real Estate Market Report: Single Family Homes

Before we begin, if you’re looking to learn more about coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales please follow the link to my post on that subject. The changes effected to combat the spread of Covid-19 began mid-March of 2020, and while the data in the months since continue to reflect these changes this is just the tip of the iceberg and we will not understand the full effect this has on the market until it is in the rear view.

At the start of the shutdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. Data for the current months are now accurate, however those previous months mentioned earlier will be affected by this pause.

The Re Report considers all of the Evergreen district together. Please find the full report on my Real Estate Report for the Evergreen area of San Jose. Further down, you’ll see live charts with more zip code specific details.

The Evergreen area saw some dramatic ups and downs in September. Closed sales and active inventory dropped while pending sales shot up month-over-month. Compared to last year it’s a more dramatic version of the same – pending sales remain sky-high while closed sales and available listings are falling behind. The sales vs list price ratio cooled to a still hot 105.9%, a whopping 3.2% higher than last year, and sold quickly averaging just 11 days on market. Evergreen homes are in a clear seller’s market!

Trends At a Glance Sep 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,485,000 (-8.8%) $1,627,500 $1,220,000 (+21.7%)
Average Price $1,663,790 (-12.3%) $1,896,300 $1,291,220 (+28.9%)
No. of Sales 32 (-33.3%) 48 45 (-28.9%)
Pending 77 (+28.3%) 60 46 (+67.4%)
Active 24 (-17.2%) 29 29 (-17.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.9% (-2.6%) 108.7% 102.6% (+3.2%)
Days on Market 11 (-7.2%) 12 23 (-49.9%)
Days of Inventory 22 (+20.0%) 18 19 (+16.4%)

 

Altos Research: Evergreen real estate market for single family homes or houses by zip code

95148

Evergreen of San Jose 95148 Real-Time Market Profile

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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose - Valley View 2019-1-20 - for the San Jose real estate marketThe San Jose real estate market is a strong seller’s market, and it has been for months. Available inventory remains unbelievably low and can’t keep up with the high demand. This article is updated monthly with the latest market data. Here’s a sample of the latest for San Jose’s single family housing market:

  • The September 2021 market was distinctly hotter than the year before.
  • San Jose homes took an average of only 14 days to sell.
  • The average sale to list price ratio was a red hot 108.1%.

Last year the spring market experienced mild unseasonable cooling, but from the summer of 2020 on it’s been heating up in San Jose. Early winter saw a hint of seasonal cooling, but by mid-winter it was heating right back up again! Finally, after a hyper-competitive spring, summer 2021 finally experienced some slight market cooling. This is shown in the San Jose housing market data below, and I’ve also experienced it in my own real estate practice.

These charts will not reflect the full effect of the pandemic on the market. It will take a while before we see the full picture on how it impacted realty, but for now you can read about the Coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales on my other post.

Early on in the shutdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th of 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. Current numbers are accurate, but disregard this data for those previous months.

First please find the Altos Research Charts, a live feed of data on the housing markets in San Jose. You will then also find the RE Report, charts with statistics comparing sales in the last month and comparing them month-over-month and year-over-year. These are both the usual tools I use to gauge a market. Directly below are links to the market analysis of specific neighborhoods in San Jose. Some of these, where I work the most, are updated monthly, and others are updated every few months.

Altos Charts for the San Jose real estate market as a Whole – automatically updated each week – single family homes

First, the market profile and then the basic charts for single family homes or houses in San Jose. FYI, Altos uses LIST prices. The RE Report further down uses SOLD prices (which is part of the reason why I utilize both).

This real time market San Jose housing market profile (updated October 11th) shows steady low inventory, speedy days on market, and high market action bouncing back after a recent decline. San Jose is in a strong seller’s market and holding, according to Altos! The Median List Price (for condos and houses combined) is usually stable around $1,250,000, though it has been getting nearer and nearer to $1.3 mil since last year and, around the spring peak was sticking close to $1.35!

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Morgan Hill real estate market

Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow is the Morgan Hill real estate market? This article will include data, trends and statistics for both houses/single family homes and condominiums/townhouses (in the second half of the article). Here’s a bit of what you’ll find in the latest monthly update for Morgan Hill’s single family housing market:

  • September remained a red hot seller’s market, more competitive than last year despite a smaller pool of sales and inventory.
  • The sales to list price ratio for homes dipped to a red hot 105.1% of asking.
  • Homes sold in an average of just 11 days, a rapid turnover!

The Morgan Hill Real Estate Market

If you’re looking to learn more about Coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales, please check my post on that subject. This month’s data gives us only a small window into the changes the pandemic has had on the market.

At the start of the pandemic here in Silicon Valley, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) paused the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. This will not affect current numbers, but will affect those previous months data.

The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So if most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 105%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market.

First up, the market profile from Altos Research – this is updated weekly, so check back often! You can also view the weekly newsletter through the link below, where you can also subscribe to receive this update every week in your inbox. Prefer a particular zip code instead? You can type in your desired zip in the “Search Anywhere” line and then request that particular weekly update by email.

Altos Research weekly report for all of Morgan Hill

Altos weekly report for 95037 only

Altos weekly report for 95038 only

Morgan Hill Real-Time Market Profile

The latest Altos update (October 11th) shows a shrinking inventory, slowing days on market, and a decline in market action. That said, it’s still hot and the current market remains in a strong seller’s market.

Trends at a Glance for Single Family Homes in Morgan Hill

Below is a chart with basic info, to see more click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill. This September remained extremely active with some ups and downs month-over-month. Closed sales plunged, pending sales grew, and active inventory shrank a hair from the month before. Compared to last year, closed sales, pending sales, and active inventory all fell behind. That said, this time last year the market was rebounding from a low point brought on by the initial pandemic lockdown. Homes continue to sell more than twice as fast as a year ago and with higher overbids. It’s an active seller’s market with high demand competing for a tiny pool of available homes.

Trends At a Glance Sep 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,325,000 (0.0%) $1,325,250 $1,072,000 (+23.6%)
Average Price $1,452,620 (-0.6%) $1,461,340 $1,155,470 (+25.7%)
No. of Sales 32 (-30.4%) 46 45 (-28.9%)
Pending 61 (+13.0%) 54 74 (-17.6%)
Active 36 (-5.3%) 38 57 (-36.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 105.1% (-1.2%) 106.5% 101.4% (+3.7%)
Days on Market 11 (-53.4%) 23 28 (-61.7%)
Days of Inventory 33 (+31.6%) 25 37 (-11.2%)

 

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