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Willow Glen real estate market in San Jose

Willow Glen real estate market is a strong seller's market. This Willow Glen sign is from the downtown business district.The Willow Glen real estate market in San Jose is showing more signs of cooling. That can be seasonally typical, but what we are seeing in Silicon Valley and elsewhere suggests that it may be more than just seasonal home buying patterns at play.

The realty market in this part of San Jose is close to balanced, if a little in the seller’s favor.

  • Home prices have been falling each month but remain up 3.2% over July 2021
  • Homes are slower to sell, now averaging 24 days (up from 13) – still this is a quick selling market
  • The sale to list price ratio has sunk to 98.5% on average, down from 104.8% in June and down from 108.5% a year ago

The best priced homes with no location or condition issues continue to sell quickly. Some properties that are taking a long time to sell have moved into “buyer’s market” territory.

Willow Glen Real Estate Market Trends: Single Family Homes

The Willow Glen real estate market has cooled to the point where homes are now selling for under list price on average. This is a trend reversal. The average sale price is above last year’s pricing, but Willow Glen houses sold prices are now averaging under $2 million.

Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report:

 

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,797,500 (-10.1%) $2,000,000 $1,860,000 (-3.4%)
Average Price $1,943,060 (-11.3%) $2,190,940 $1,883,070 (+3.2%)
No. of Sales 32 (-41.8%) 55 60 (-46.7%)
Pending 70 (+11.1%) 63 52 (+34.6%)
Active 76 (+22.6%) 62 46 (+65.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 98.5% (-6.0%) 104.8% 108.5% (-9.2%)
Days on Market 24 (+80.1%) 13 (+155.7%)
Days of Inventory 71 (+118.0%) 33 23 (+209.8%)

 

Below please find a market profile and then a couple of charts for the real estate market for houses and duet homes (attached single family homes – not duplexes), care of Altos Research, to which I have a subscription. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices. The data is automatically updated each week, so please bookmark this post and come back often!


Data from Altos Research for Willow Glen Real Estate Trends – San Jose 95125

In the latest update, Altos says single family homes are in a strong seller’s market with declining market action, and a slight increase in perpetually low inventory. With 34% of the homes having a price reduction, the market is clearly softening. The percentage of homes with prices decreased is a big indicator of the market’s direction.

 

Willow Glen Real-Time Market Profile

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Los Gatos Mountains 95033 Real Estate Market

Damp road in a redwood forest similar lo the Los Gatos MoountainsThe real estate market in the Los Gatos Mountains is very different from the “in town” Los Gatos housing market and really deserves its own separate treatment. The mountain area includes areas both in Santa Clara County and also Santa Cruz County, but the data here will reflect only the area within Santa Clara County. Both sides may have a Los Gatos mailing address with the 95033 zip code.

The Real Estate Report for the Los Gatos Mountains is updated each month with the RE Report info, but the Altos Research live chart automatically updates weekly, so please stop by often to get updated information.

LG Mountains trends at a glance (link to the real estate report)

Most of the valley is now seeing some calming down in the real estate market. Some of the data points are flattening here, too, but it does remain a seller’s market, as the sale to list price ratio indicates this month.

(If you are viewing this on a mobile device, the table below will scroll if you swipe it.)

Trends at a Glance: Los Gatos Mountains 95033

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,125,000 (-26.7%) $1,535,000 $1,500,000 (-25.0%)
Average Price $1,383,220 (-8.6%) $1,514,110 $1,645,100 (-15.9%)
No. of Sales (-35.7%) 14 15 (-40.0%)
Pending 14 (-12.5%) 16 20 (-30.0%)
Active 25 (+13.6%) 22 36 (-30.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 104.4% (+0.9%) 103.5% 102.0% (+2.3%)
Days on Market 26 (-10.8%) 29 17 (+48.6%)
Days of Inventory 83 (+82.9%) 46 72 (+15.7%)

 

95033 Real Estate Market – Los Gatos Mountains

Each week, my subscription to the Altos Research Report for the Los Gatos Mountains is automatically updated. Click on the link to view it, or subscribe if you’d like an update emailed to you regularly. You can also click on the link to check other nearby zip codes. Some of 95120 or 95032 can be in the rural areas, too, so check a zip code map in case the area that interests you is closer to Mt Umunhum, over Saratoga, or some other location.

As of the most recent Altos update this market is a mild seller’s market.

 

The mountain communities are many and diverse, so issues in one area, such as too much inventory or not enough listings, may be the opposite somewhere else.

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Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

Almaden View Real Estate Market Conditions San Jose 95120 - photo with Mt Umunhum in backgroundThe Almaden Valley real estate market is cooling, as is the rest of Silicon Valley.

Here are a few data points from the latest update, which you will find in more detail below:

  • The July market showed increased cooling overall.
  • House prices remain up significantly year over year.
  • The sale to list price ratio is still well over 100% but it’s been slipping a little more each month.
  • These are some of the best home buying conditions we’ve seen in years in Almaden.

 

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions: Trends at a Glance

Next, a look at the residential real estate market statistics for Almaden, or San Jose 95120 from the Real Estate Report (a subscription that uses closed / sold data). They’re having a bit of a technical issue with their data collection, so not every number is exactly correct, however it is still a useful tool for market analysis.

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,275,000 (-1.9%) $2,320,000 $1,987,500 (+14.5%)
Average Price $2,566,140 (+5.9%) $2,422,170 $2,121,760 (+20.9%)
No. of Sales 14 (-53.3%) 30 42 (-66.7%)
Pending 32 (+10.3%) 29 39 (-17.9%)
Active 41 (+2.5%) 40 17 (+141.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.6% (-1.1%) 104.7% 108.5% (-4.5%)
Days on Market 21 (+78.3%) 12 11 (+88.0%)
Days of Inventory 88 (+127.2%) 39 12 (+623.5%)

Altos Research charts for Almaden Valley real estate market, single family homes segment (more…)

Morgan Hill real estate market

Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow is the Morgan Hill real estate market? Although the average and median sales prices are giving mixed signals, it’s not climbing like it was earlier in the year. Rising values have been more dramatic here than in many other parts of Silicon Valley or San Jose, but will they fall now that the market is cooling?

  • The average sale price for houses in July was $1,865,640 (+12.6% from June and +22.8% from a year ago)
  • The median sale price for single family homes was $1,500,000 (-0.8% the month prior and +9.9% from this time last year)
  • The sales to list price ratio for homes cooled significantly, dropping to 99.8% (-3.8% from the month before and -5.7% from last year). It hasn’t been this low since the spring of 2020.
  • Days on market were up month-over-month and year-over-year.

All indicators point to a more balanced market on the way, but right now it’s still a clear seller’s market with strong competition for the best homes and a much calmer market for the outliers. Looking year-over-year the market is calming down with fewer sales and more inventory, and prices remain sky high!

See the Santa Clara County real estate market report (for comparison) here.

The Morgan Hill Real Estate Market

The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So if most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 105%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market. With so much pent-up demand, and possibly with buyers being priced out of other areas, this market has been showing significantly more heat than usual, but it’s also calming down a little more quickly than other areas.

First up, the market profile from Altos Research – this is updated weekly, so check back often! You can also view the weekly newsletter through the link below, where you can also subscribe to receive this update every week in your inbox. Prefer a particular zip code instead? You can type in your desired zip in the “Search Anywhere” line and then request that particular weekly update by email.

Altos Research weekly report for all of Morgan Hill

Altos weekly report for 95037 only

Altos weekly report for 95038 only

 

Morgan Hill Real-Time Market Profile

 

Trends at a Glance for Single Family Homes in Morgan Hill

Below is a chart with basic info, to see more click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill.

July was less active, with a significant dip in active inventory and a smaller decline in closed and pending sales. It should be noted that July had a rare luxury home sale – these sales can skew the data some with significantly higher prices and longer time on market compared to a more standard home. The market has clearly cooled off since April, but remains hot with elevated prices year-over-year and shows less significant cooling compared to some other parts of the county.

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,500,000 (-0.8%) $1,512,500 $1,365,000 (+9.9%)
Average Price $1,865,640 (+12.6%) $1,656,250 $1,519,610 (+22.8%)
No. of Sales 41 (-6.8%) 44 54 (-24.1%)
Pending 64 (-5.9%) 68 53 (+20.8%)
Active 51 (-25.0%) 68 48 (+6.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.8% (-3.8%) 103.8% 105.9% (-5.7%)
Days on Market 35 (+115.7%) 16 13 (+161.0%)
Days of Inventory 37 (-16.7%) 45 27 (+39.9%)

 

Single Family Home Live charts from Altos Research (more…)

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian Park real estate market is flattening, and for this part of San Jose generally,

  • Single family home prices are about equal to what they were a year ago.
  • Houses are selling in about 3 weeks and over list price.
  • This climate makes it a good time to sell, but it’s also a much better time to buy than we’ve seen in years.
  • The condo market has softened month over month, but is much stronger than it was a year ago.

For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

Here is a good summary on the Cambrian real estate market. The RE Report is having some issues with reporting from the MLS, so this data may not be exact but we can still understand the current trends with this chart.

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,539,000 (-7.8%) $1,668,700 $1,560,000 (-1.3%)
Average Price $1,658,990 (-4.4%) $1,735,240 $1,628,370 (+1.9%)
No. of Sales 45 (-33.8%) 68 71 (-36.6%)
Pending 70 (-4.1%) 73 66 (+6.1%)
Active 60 (+7.1%) 56 55 (+9.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.8% (-4.1%) 106.2% 110.8% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 22 (+59.6%) 14 11 (+98.9%)
Days of Inventory 40 (+67.5%) 24 23 (+72.1%)

 

Cambrian Park Altos Research Charts

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Saratoga CA Real Estate Market Update

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California - photo for article on the Saratoga CA real estate market

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

The Saratoga CA real estate market is softening, as is the case across the county right now, but prices remain up year over year and it is still a seller’s market – just a milder one.

Please note that it is not uncommon to see softening between Spring and Summer, so the month over month data is in many ways not quite as significant as the year over year figures.

  • Saratoga house prices fell both month over month AND year over year
    • The average sale price in July was $3,524,030 (-3.0% from the year before and -12.9% from the month before)
    • The median sale price  was $3,075,000 (-9% from July 2021 and -17.4% from June 2022)
  • The absorption rate slowed to 68 days, up from 41 in June 2022 and 31 in July 2021
  • The sale to list price ratio went to 100.8% in July 2022, down from June’s 103.8% and July 2021’s 107.2

 

How’s the Saratoga CA real estate market?

Saratoga has a diverse real estate market due to a wide range of home prices, square footage, lot sizes, school districts, and more. The luxury tier, generally $4 million and up (but in Saratoga, that’s really still just a house in an expensive zip code) normally moves slower than other price points. Saratoga’s entry level housing is usually the strongest. If the numbers swing wildly at any given month, it could be that more or fewer homes in a particular school district and pricing tier.

First, a quick glance at the Altos Research market profile for a quick summary of the market conditions. Altos uses LIST prices, not sold prices, for this chart and the others, below.

 

Real-Time Market Profile Saratoga, CA 95070

Next, let’s turn to the closed sales from last month. This time we’re using data from a subscription service of mine to the RE Report.

Here are the real estate sales statistics for closed sales last month among houses and duet homes (if there are any) in the 95070 zip code. Bottom line is that most livable homes in Saratoga will run between $3 and $5 million if they are mid sized (2000-3000 SF) and in the best schools area (Saratoga or Cupertino). Homes in the Campbell schools area, which have very strong elementary and middle schools, are fewer and generally more affordable, closer to $2 – $3.5 million (and occasionally lower), but depending on size, condition, and location they can be significantly higher.

Trends at a Glance for the Saratoga CA Real Estate Market

Data below is from the ReReport.

Most of the data points below indicate a cooling market. Home prices are still up from a year ago, but the days on market, days of inventory, and sale to list price ratio are all calmer than either a month ago or a year ago.

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $3,075,000 (-17.4%) $3,725,000 $3,380,000 (-9.0%)
Average Price $3,524,030 (-12.9%) $4,048,040 $3,631,300 (-3.0%)
No. of Sales 16 (-33.3%) 24 31 (-48.4%)
Pending 49 (+11.4%) 44 50 (-2.0%)
Active 36 (+5.9%) 34 32 (+12.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.8% (-2.9%) 103.8% 107.2% (-6.0%)
Days on Market 27 (+56.8%) 17 12 (+122.3%)
Days of Inventory 68 (+64.3%) 41 31 (+118.0%)

 

Absorption rate

The absorption rate refers to how quickly inventory would be sold off if no new homes came on the market and if sales continued at the same pass. (A good analogy is how long would it take for a bathtub to drain if no new water is coming into the tub and if the water kept draining at the same rate.) The absorption rate can be the days of inventory, the weeks of inventory, or the months of inventory.

Just now I pulled the MLS for the months of inventory in Saratoga. the MLS figures are a little different than the RE Report info, I believe due to data feeds and some duplicates on the MLS. Whatever the cause, you can see in the data table below that the months of inventory have increased quite a lot since April. The last time the absorption rate was this high in July was 2016. This is a warm seller’s market, however, it’s no longer a hot one.

 

Saratoga CA real estate - months of inventory

 

Altos Research – list prices for Saratoga CA 95070 (more…)

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends

Leo or Leona - the mascot of Los Gatos

The Los Gatos real estate market trends are toward a softer balance between sellers and buyers, but it is still a warm seller’s market.  We are well past the peak pricing and are seeing significant cooling with every data point over the last several months.

As of today, August 8, some info on single family  homes in LG 95030 & 95032:

  • 48  single family homes are on the market in “Active” status, 3 are listed as “agent only, show”, and 2 are “agent only, do not show”). The agent only listings means that they are not syndicated to other websites, meaning 5 of the homes for sale will not be seen on places like Realtor.com.
  • 4 houses are under contract but there are contingencies of some kind in place (could be loan, appraisal, property inspection, buyer to sell current home, seller to find a replacement home) – so those sales may not go through.
  • 23  houses are sale pending, no contingencies (this is a small number compared to the active listings).
  • 19 houses have closed escrow in the last month, down from 26 on June 8 and 33 in early May (sales are falling).
  • The average sale price to list price ratio for these 25 houses was 101% (down from 104% in July.

 

Los Gatos real estate market trends: multi year stats

Inventory is rising but remains below what has been normal since 2013. Th is is a little surprising to me. Once we got past the peak of the market I was somewhat expecting sellers to quickly get their homes listed. But we have not seen an abnormal increase of listings. (Clair’s and my sellers are largely holding off for better selling conditions.)

 

Los Gatos inventory of homes for sale in 95030 and 95032

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends: inventory of houses for sale

 

Number of closed and sold Los Gatos homes

The number of sales is not keeping up with the new inventory pouring on the market. Buyers are less interested than they once were in buying. The culprits for the change in motivation are simple: much higher interest rates, high sale prices, the devaluation of stocks (the source of many down payments), fears of recession, uncertainty due to the Russian war in Ukraine.

Sales are really down! 

 

 Closed sales - Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 SFH

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends: number of sold properties

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