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Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics

Leo or Leona - the mascot of Los GatosThe Los Gatos real estate market shows a mild seller’s market with some ups and downs. Once again the “in-town” (95030) zip code is less active for single family home sales than the 95032 zip code which continues to be in high demand. Here are a few quick points from the Los Gatos single family home market detailed below:

  • Inventory, pending, and closed sales have all risen since the month before.
  • The median sales price rose 12.3% from last month and 32.6% from the year before.
  • The sale to list price ratio remains above 101% with slight cooling since January.

However a lot has changed since the beginning of March. We’re just beginning to see the result of the pandemic on local real estate markets in these monthly analyses. For more on how Covid-19 is affecting our local real estate market, please check my post titled Coronavirus Impact on Real Estate Sales.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory from those months indicated. Current numbers should be accurate.

This post will include info from both Altos Research, which uses LIST prices, and the RE Report, which uses listing and closed sale data, for the “in town” areas of Los Gatos (95030 and 95032).

From ALTOS – a view of LG 95030 (they are updated automatically a few times a month):

Altos Real-Time Market Profile Los Gatos, CA SFH 95030

And 95032:

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How many offers will there be on that Silicon Valley home?

Graphic of person with computer and cell phone and words "How many offers are expected for that listed home?"The deep sellers’ market continues to frustrate Silicon Valley home buyers.  With scant inventory and sales, sometimes there’s very little to pick from, and many, many buyers all vying for the same property. A common question from Realtors and buyers alike to listing agents is this: “how many offers are you expecting?”

In short:

  • when showings change from 30 minute windows to 15 or 20 minute viewing times, you know that there’s a lot of interest
  • online, look to see if Redfin calls it a “hot home” – those are more likely to attract multiple offers (also, watch the Redfin price estimate, it changes with its website traffic)
  • the ratio of disclosure packages out to offers written is about 1 in 3 for most homes (a near perfect house will have a higher ratio – perhaps 50% or a little more, a home with issues will have a lower ratio)
  • it’s not an exact science – some buyers will drop out even after writing an offer, and some buyers will swoop in at the last minute
  • the overbids are often proportional to the number of contracts received, but not always (an old rule of thumb is 1% per offer)
  • listing agents may play down the number of offers expected since they don’t want to discourage anyone from writing

It can be hard to know.  While some real estate agents advise their sellers to market the home with an unrealistically low price in an effort to obtain an avalanche of bids, most do not, but instead caution that it’s better to list on the lower end of the probable buyer’s value than the high end. If it’s a little low, the market will correct it (at least in a sellers’ market) but if it’s too high you may see no contracts on it at all.

How many offers? Communication is key

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Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

Almaden View Real Estate Market Conditions San Jose 95120 - photo with Mt Umunhum in backgroundThe Almaden Valley real estate market is experiencing some mild cooling, but remains clearly in the sellers favor. There’s plenty of demand, and inventory remains well below market norms. All in all, Almaden Valley remains in a continual, active seller’s market. Here are a few data points from the most recent update, which you will find in more detail below:

  • Extremely limited inventory grew in January, but remains half of what it was a year ago.
  • The sales to list price ratio was a hot average of 103.9%.
  • Homes are selling quickly with an average of 25 days on market.

Before we begin, it’s important to recognize how much has changed since last March. Over time we will have a better grasp over the pandemic’s affect on the real estate market. For more on the impact of the pandemic on the market, check out my post titled Coronavirus impact on real estate sales.

Last spring, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM) when the lockdown was put in place. Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory within that time frame.

Almaden Valley months of inventory

Just now I logged onto the MLS. As of today (February 19th), there are 15 houses or duet homes (not duplexes, but attached single family homes) for sale in San Jose, CA 95120, aka Almaden Valley. Of those, 8 (or 53%) are offered at under $2 million, which is a little less than last month. Dividing the whole up, none are listed under $1 million, 8 are between $1-2 million, 6 were listed between $2-3 million, and 1 was offered over $4 million. In the last 30 days, 14 single family homes have closed in the same area. When we divide the active listings by the closed sales over 30 days, we get the months of inventory. So for Almaden, 15 divided by 14 = 1.07 months of inventory. That’s a hot seller’s market!

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions: Trends at a Glance

Next, a look at the residential real estate market statistics for Almaden, or San Jose 95120 from the Real Estate Report (a subscription that uses closed / sold data). Sales and sales pending decreased from the month before and have fallen below last year. Active inventory doubled from last month, but is still only half of what it was a year ago. That small inventory is selling quickly, averaging 25 days on market, and with a sale to list price ratio of 103.9%. Although January saw clear cooling from the month before, it’s still a red hot seller’s market!

Please find the current statistics for single family homes (houses & duet homes) from my Almaden Valley real estate report (click on link for more info).

Trends At a Glance Jan 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,722,500 (+3.8%) $1,660,000 $1,662,500 (+3.6%)
Average Price $1,747,210 (+0.5%) $1,738,570 $1,670,880 (+4.6%)
No. of Sales 14 (-39.1%) 23 16 (-12.5%)
Pending 12 (-14.3%) 14 18 (-33.3%)
Active 10 (+100.0%) 5 19 (-47.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.9% (-0.5%) 104.4% 101.1% (+2.8%)
Days on Market 25 (+211.3%) 8 60 (-59.2%)
Days of Inventory 21 (+228.6%) 7 36 (-39.8%)

 

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The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian or Cambrian Park district is a popular residential market with good “bang for your buck.” It remains a strong seller’s market despite some seasonal cooling. This article provides a detailed look at the residential real estate markets of Cambrian with live and monthly updates. Here are some points of note from the latest monthly update for Cambrian Park single family homes:

  • This January the Cambrian market returned with 40 closed sales, 35 pending sales, and only 14 active listings.
  • Days on market are low with a 21 day average.
  • Average and median sales prices were approximately 18% above last year.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

One of the best ways to get a pulse on the Cambrian Park real estate market is to see what’s selling fast. Sometimes a few low sales will make the market look more sluggish than it is. For the Cambrian housing market, though, most single family homes are selling well, with multiple offers, and overbids right now. But not all. So let’s separate them out by time and see how it looks.

Before we begin, it’s important to recognize how much has changed since last March. With almost a year behind us we can clearly see some the pandemic’s affect on the real estate market, but it will still take time to see the full picture. For more on the impact of the pandemic on the market, check out my post titled Coronavirus impact on real estate sales.

Early on in the lockdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory for the months involved. Current numbers are accurate.

Fast sales are stronger sales: under 14 days is best for Cambrian Park realty sales 

Just now (as of February 19th) I pulled the single family home sales for Cambrian (MLS area 14) for the last 30 days and saw a huge difference between the homes that sell fast and those that do not. The turning point seems to be 14 days on the market between overbids and underbids.

Out of 29 properties sold in the last 30 days, 23 of them or about 79% sold in 14 days or less, with the average days on market (DOM) for this group a lighting speed 5 days! For these fast selling homes the average list price $1,358,418 and average sale price $1,481,696 (averaging an overbid of $123,278 or approximately 109% of list price). In total, 2 in that group sold below list price, 1 sold at list price, and the large majority, 20 properties, sold over asking.

The 6 slower sales, roughly 21% of all sales, were on the market between 16 and 55 days. Three sold above list price, 1 sold at asking, and the remaining 2 sold below.

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The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The Monte Sereno real estate market is similar to Los Gatos, but distinct - Monte Sereno shares many features with Los Gatos but is a distinct cityHow is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4,000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. This article is updated monthly with new data and analysis, so scroll down to read the latest and check back regularly. Here are a few details from the latest market update:

  • Monte Sereno is currently in a strong seller’s market, despite winter trends with low inventory and sales.
  • The average January sale took 15 days and was accepted at 109.8% of list price.
  • In January the median sales price was $2,790,000 and the average was $3,007,170.

Though we’ve begun to see changes to the market since last March, we won’t know the full impact for a while. For now you can read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my post on the topic.

Early on in the shutdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. So while current data is accurate, please disregard any DOM data for the months mentioned above.

There are no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno at present (we are watching closely the proposed development at La Rinconada, which is unincorporated as of this writing). One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (a pdf online):  http://www.montesereno.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/674

Below is a quick market profile for Monte Sereno. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.

Monte Sereno Altos Real-Time Market Profile

As of the latest update, February 16th, Monte Sereno is in a slight seller’s market with declining activity and other signs of winter cooling. Unlike other areas, this market didn’t experience the same cooling last spring as the rest of the valley, but continued to heat up through most of 2020. Winter of 2021 has finally seen a cooling trend in this area. Still, Monte Sereno has very few active listings, so the data for this chart can have large swings in data due to one or two outstanding properties.

Altos Research does weekly reports, to which I subscribe. You can see the full weekly report for Monte Sereno HERE and you can click the subscribe button there if you’d like to get it weekly (or navigate to another zip code or city and subscribe to that). Here’s the data on home descriptions per price quartile in the report, updated automatically throughout the month:

Median List Price for Monte Sereno By Altos

It looks like prices have experienced some small increases this year. The top tier peaked earlier this year well above where it last peaked around late 2017 and early 2018. In the middle, the upper and lower price tiers also rose close to, if not a little above the 2017-2018 peak. Even the bottom tier is reaching prices it hasn’t seen since 2018, though not at it’s peak. All areas have seen winter cooling, so most areas are currently below those springtime highs again. Remember, low inventory and fewer sales mean greater swings in data.

Stats for recently closed home sales in Monte Sereno

Here are the quick statistics for the closed sales in the last complete month to give a sense of how things are going with the Monte Sereno real estate market. Sales data comes from my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report. Given that the supply of homes to study is tiny, what can we tell from this data?

It’s true that an average Monte Sereno house is about $2.5-3.5 million, and often higher in the current market – closer to $4 million – a little steep for most folks!

Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance:

This January has had some major ups and downs. Small pools of data can shift drastically very quickly, so it’s important to take this data with a grain of salt. The sale vs list price ratio spiked to a fiery 109.8% of asking, and days on market sped to 15 days. Prices dropped from the month before but rose well above last year. Since last month, sales were cut in half and pending sales rose a hair. Both have tripled since last year. Active inventory held steady from last month and remains low year-over-year. Despite the seasonal cooling the Monte Sereno housing market is still more active than typical winter trends and clearly remains in a seller’s market with high demand.

Trends At a Glance Jan 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,790,000 (-19.4%) $3,462,500 $2,200,000 (+26.8%)
Average Price $3,007,170 (-10.6%) $3,364,170 $2,200,000 (+36.7%)
No. of Sales (-50.0%) 6 (+200.0%)
Pending (+50.0%) 2 (+200.0%)
Active (0.0%) 5 (-37.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 109.8% (+13.6%) 96.6% 97.8% (+12.3%)
Days on Market 15 (-61.0%) 39 (+200.0%)
Days of Inventory 50 (+100.0%) 25 240 (-79.2%)

And the month before:

Trends At a Glance Dec 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $3,462,500 (+0.7%) $3,437,500 $2,362,500 (+46.6%)
Average Price $3,364,170 (-20.5%) $4,231,250 $3,301,250 (+1.9%)
No. of Sales (+50.0%) 4 (+50.0%)
Pending (-66.7%) 6 (+100.0%)
Active (-16.7%) 6 (-37.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 96.6% (-0.3%) 96.9% 99.9% (-3.3%)
Days on Market 39 (+20.3%) 32 22 (+77.0%)
Days of Inventory 25 (-42.5%) 44 60 (-58.3%)

 

Because so few  houses sell per month, pricing appears to jump around when that’s not actually the case. The Monte Sereno home prices tend to be a little higher but generally follow the Los Gatos trends, so it’s worth while to view this info also to get a more balanced sense of how things are for real estate in Monte Sereno. Also, for those considering buying or selling, it’s important to look at the actual listings for each and every sale with similar features, size, amenities to get a sense of your home’s particular subset of the market.Next, let’s look at the live charts from Altos to see how active listings reflect the market as seen from viewing sold listings.

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Santa Teresa real estate market

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose - the proximity of parks will impact the Santa Teresa real estate market for that neighborhood

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market? The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable but offers lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time, making the area more desirable. These positives seem to be helping that area to hold its value well. Here are a few details from the latest monthly market update for Santa Teresa single family homes (read the full analysis below):

  • It’s a hot seller’s market in Santa Teresa with high sales and low inventory.
  • Active listings are finally beginning to grow again and are slightly ahead of last year.
  • The average January listing sold in only 19 days and at 107.3% of list price.

Santa Teresa (our MLS Area 2)  includes a small bit of the 95123 zip code, which is more expensive, but most of that zip code is Blossom Valley, so we will omit it. The 95138 zip code is about half Santa Teresa and half Evergreen (more expensive area), so take those numbers with a big grain of salt. I find the 95119 zip code to be most helpful, but even then, the school district is divided between Oak Grove and Morgan Hill.

Since the start of last March there have been many changes affecting the real estate industry. We’re starting to have a better view of the impact of the pandemic on the local real estate markets, but it will take a while to get the full picture. For now, read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my other post. Thinking of listing your home in this hot seller’s market? It’s a great time to do so if you are prepared! Read more about how to sell your home in 2021 through the linked article.

At the start of the lockdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) temporarily stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory for the previous months, though current data is accurate.

Weekly update from Altos Research with a “market profile” of San Jose’s Santa Teresa area, zip code 95119 for single family homes / houses:

Santa Teresa of San Jose 95119 Real-Time Market Profile

With this week’s update (February 16th) the chart continues to look fairly bare. There are now only 2 active listings, down from 3 the month before. Small pools of data can make trend tracking less accurate. Nevertheless, Altos has shown a strong seller’s market in this area for a while, though it has been bouncing between strong and mild with extremely low inventory over the last year or so.

Weekly update from Altos Research with look at a glance of zip code 95138 for single family homes or houses:

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City of Santa Clara real estate market

Santa Clara real estate market - The Santa Clara Women's Club http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The Santa Clara Women’s Club (old adobe house)
http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The realty market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one in which the sellers have the upper hand, though it continues to be impacted by the pandemic and lingering demand from 2020. What is key for home sellers is to price and prepare their home for sale according to today’s real estate market. This article contains the latest updated data and analysis. Here are a few points from the monthly single family housing market in the City of Santa Clara that you’ll find in more detail below:

  • The January sale to list price ratio was a hot 102.4% of asking, although that has cooled significantly since earlier this winter.
  • Active listings are close to what they were this time last year, but closed and pending sales are much greater.
  • The average home takes only 20 days on market to sell.

Thinking of selling your Silicon Valley home in 2021? Follow the previous link to my article on how to effectively sell your property in these unique times. It’s a blazing hot seller’s market in most of the South Bay!

The Real Estate Market for the City of Santa Clara

Last March brought some major changes that are affecting the market. While we are starting to see a clearer picture of how things have changed in recent month’s data it will take a while to see the full picture. To read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales, check my post on the topic.

At the start of the shutdown, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th, 2020. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. That means the current data will be accurate, but disregard the data from March through May in those fields.

Below there are charts for the market activity over the last few months for single family  homes in Santa Clara. Market activity has been on the rise for months, and low inventory from the past year with continuous low inventory around the rest of the Valley means there is still a greater demand to fill than properties available. Further down in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.

First, a market profile, automatically updated weekly, for the city of Santa Clara (these reports are available by zip code, too, and for condos/townhomes as well as single family dwellings). Check out the weekly Altos report HERE and click on subscribe to get weekly updates on all of Santa Clara or any particular zip code. (Scroll to the bottom and check out the profile of houses across 4 pricing quartiles – super interesting.)

Santa Clara Real-Time Market Profile

According to Altos, it’s a strong seller’s market right now with rising market action.

Data from my Real Estate Report

Next, stats at a glance for the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes. See the statistics and trends for closings and listings for last month – updated each month on about the 5th – 10th on my RE Report site for realty stats & trends in Santa Clara:

Trends at a Glance

Last year we never saw a strong seasonal cooling in winter, so 2020 began with a hot market getting progressively hotter towards spring. Things started to change after March and the market was hit with some significant cooling at the start of shelter-in-place.

This January active listings and pending sales grew while closed sales fell by half from the month before, and all areas are staying above last year’s numbers. The sales to list price ratio fell sharply to 102.4% of asking, which is still hotter than last year. For a little perspective, in 2020 this ratio fell from a whopping 111.9% in March to a low of 100.3% by June. Prices are not far from this time last year, and homes are selling quickly, averaging at 20 days on market. High demand and low inventory are fueling a hot market in Santa Clara. It looks like we are experiencing another hot winter market in 2021!

Trends At a Glance Jan 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,415,000 (+1.8%) $1,390,440 $1,398,400 (+1.2%)
Average Price $1,494,530 (+5.5%) $1,416,030 $1,390,040 (+7.5%)
No. of Sales 22 (-50.0%) 44 18 (+22.2%)
Pending 39 (+21.9%) 32 17 (+129.4%)
Active 16 (+14.3%) 14 15 (+6.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.4% (-3.2%) 105.8% 100.3% (+2.1%)
Days on Market 20 (-8.2%) 22 46 (-56.6%)
Days of Inventory 22 (+128.6%) 10 25 (-12.7%)

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