Silicon Valley Real Estate Info
In 2012 and 2013, Santa Clara County saw many single family homes selling for all cash, no loans. The peak may have been in March 2012, when the percentage of all cash sales was a whopping 25%. That was the beginning of a long housing boom, and today the percentage of all cash sales in Santa Clara County has settled down significantly, though it is still in double digits in most months.
Today I crunched the numbers on MLSListings.com (first pulling the number of sales per month, then the number of cash sales, and after exporting the data to excel, did the math to get the percentages). The chart below reflects the sales of homes sold with all cash, no loans in Santa Clara County among houses and duet homes, which combined are known as single family homes. (Duet homes are not the same as duplexes.)
All cash sales, month by month, in Santa Clara County (single family homes)
The data from one month alone does not make a trend. Please note that in the percentage of all cash sales, above, we had under 9% in April 2020, but then it did bounce back up into double digits until October. It may well do that in November, too, once we have cleared the election jitters period.
What does the lower percentage of cash sales mean? In Santa Clara County, we saw a declining number of pending sales in October. I believe that together, these point to less buyer confidence, or perhaps more buyer fatigue.
Here’s that chart (posted recently in my newsletter and also in the Santa Clara County market post on this site):
How is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4,000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility.
That combined with all that’s happened this March, the data from the last month might not be as good a predictor for the market as it normally would be. Though we’ve begun to see changes to the market over the last few months, we won’t know the full impact for a while. For now you can read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my post on the topic.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. So while current data is accurate, please disregard any DOM data for the months mentioned above.
There are no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno at present (we are watching closely the proposed development at La Rinconada, which is unincorporated as of this writing). One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (a pdf online): http://www.montesereno.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/674
Below is a quick market profile for Monte Sereno. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.
As of the latest update, November 11th, Monte Sereno is in a strong seller’s market with steady activity. Unlike other areas, this market doesn’t seem to have faced the same spring cooling as the rest of the valley and it had been heating up for a long while now, though it appears it’s leveling off for now. Still, Monte Sereno has very few active listings, so the data for this chart can have large swings in data due to one or two outstanding properties.
Altos Research does weekly reports, to which I subscribe. You can see the full weekly report for Monte Sereno HERE and you can click the subscribe button there if you’d like to get it weekly (or navigate to another zip code or city and subscribe to that). Here’s the data on home descriptions per price quartile in the report, updated automatically throughout the month:
It looks like prices have experienced some noticeable increases in all but the lowest price tier this year. The top tier peaked earlier this year well above where it last peaked around late 2017 and early 2018. In the middle, the upper and lower price tiers also rose close to, if not a little above the 2017-2018 peak. Even the bottom tier is reaching prices it hasn’t seen since 2018, though not at it’s peak. Remember, low inventory and fewer sales mean greater swings in data.
Stats for recently closed home sales in Monte Sereno
Here are the quick statistics for the closed sales in the last complete month to give a sense of how things are going with the Monte Sereno real estate market. Sales data comes from my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report. Given that the supply of homes to study is tiny, what can we tell from this data?
It’s true that an average Monte Sereno house is about $2.5-3.5 million, and often higher in the current market – closer to $4 million – a little steep for most folks!
Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance:
Not much has changed this October compared to the month before. Small pools of data can shift drastically very quickly, so it’s important to take this data with a grain of salt. Prices rose, the sale vs list price ratio fell to (a still very hot) 103.8% of list, and days on market slowed to 19 days. Sales grew a hair while pending sales dipped and active listings held stable. Looking back further, sales and pendings are well above 2019, while active inventory continues to fall short. The market remains hot and it’s an active seller’s market.
|Trends At a Glance||Oct 2020||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$3,367,500 (+12.3%)||$3,000,000||$2,732,750 (+23.2%)|
|Average Price||$3,496,480 (+10.2%)||$3,171,800||$3,019,220 (+15.8%)|
|No. of Sales||6 (+20.0%)||5||6 (0.0%)|
|Pending||8 (-11.1%)||9||4 (+100.0%)|
|Active||8 (0.0%)||8||12 (-33.3%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||103.8% (-1.4%)||105.2%||98.1% (+5.8%)|
|Days on Market||19 (+15.5%)||17||35 (-44.7%)|
|Days of Inventory||40 (-13.8%)||46||60 (-33.3%)|
And the month before:
|Trends At a Glance||Sep 2020||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$3,000,000 (-29.3%)||$4,245,000||$4,143,750 (-27.6%)|
|Average Price||$3,171,800 (-25.2%)||$4,242,500||$3,684,580 (-13.9%)|
|No. of Sales||5 (-37.5%)||8||3 (+66.7%)|
|Pending||9 (+80.0%)||5||6 (+50.0%)|
|Active||8 (0.0%)||8||13 (-38.5%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||105.2% (+7.9%)||97.6%||97.9% (+7.5%)|
|Days on Market||17 (-52.6%)||35||52 (-68.1%)|
|Days of Inventory||46 (+54.7%)||30||126 (-63.1%)|
Because so few houses sell per month, pricing appears to jump around when that’s not actually the case. The Monte Sereno home prices tend to be a little higher but generally follow the Los Gatos trends, so it’s worth while to view this info also to get a more balanced sense of how things are for real estate in Monte Sereno. Also, for those considering buying or selling, it’s important to look at the actual listings for each and every sale with similar features, size, amenities to get a sense of your home’s particular subset of the market.
Next, let’s look at the live charts from Altos to see how active listings reflect the market as seen from viewing sold listings.
How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market? The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable but offers lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time, making the area more desirable. These positives seem to be helping that area to hold its value well.
Santa Teresa (our MLS Area 2) includes a small bit of the 95123 zip code, which is more expensive, but most of that zip is Blossom Valley, so we will omit it. The 95138 zip code is about half Santa Teresa and half Evergreen (more expensive area), so take those numbers with a big grain of salt. I find the 95119 zip code to be most helpful, but even then, the school district is divided between Oak Grove and Morgan Hill.
Since the start of March there have been many changes affecting the real estate industry. We’re starting to have a better view of the impact of the pandemic on the local real estate markets, but it will take a while to get the full picture. For now, read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my other post.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory for the previous months, though current data is accurate.
Weekly update from Altos Research with a “market profile” of San Jose’s Santa Teresa area, zip code 95119 for single family homes / houses:
With this week’s update (November 17th) the chart continues to look fairly bare. There are now only 4 active listings, down by 2 from the month before. Small pools of data can make trend tracking less accurate. Nevertheless, Altos has shown a strong seller’s market in this area for a while, though it has been bouncing between strong and mild with extremely low inventory over the last year or so.
Weekly update from Altos Research with look at a glance of zip code 95138 for single family homes or houses:
Update on the Santa Clara real estate market: The realty market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one in which the sellers have the upper hand, though it has seen significant softening since the first quarter. What is key for home sellers is to price according to today’s market.
That being said, this March brought some major changes that are affecting the market. While we are starting to see a clearer picture of how things have changed in this month’s data it will take a while to see the end result. To read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales, check my post on the topic.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. That means the current data will be accurate, but disregard the data from March through May in those fields.
Below there are charts for the market activity over the last few months for single family homes in Santa Clara. Market activity has been on the rise for months, and low inventory from the past year with continuous low inventory around the rest of the Valley means there is still a greater demand to fill than properties available. Further down in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.
First, a market profile, automatically updated weekly, for the city of Santa Clara (these reports are available by zip code, too, and for condos/townhomes as well as single family dwellings). Check out the weekly Altos report HERE and click on subscribe to get weekly updates on all of Santa Clara or any particular zip code. (Scroll to the bottom and check out the profile of houses across 4 pricing quartiles – super interesting.)
According to Altos, it’s a strong seller’s market right now with market action still on the rise.
Data from my Real Estate Report
Next, stats at a glance for the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes. See the statistics and trends for closings and listings for last month – updated each month on about the 5th – 10th on my RE Report site for realty stats & trends in Santa Clara:
Trends at a Glance
Last year we never saw a strong seasonal cooling in winter, so 2020 began with a hot market getting progressively hotter towards spring. Things started to change in spring and after March the market was hit with some significant cooling.
In October pending sales fell from the month before while active listings and closed sales rose both month over month and year over year. The sales to list price ratio dipped again to a still hot 102.5%. To offer some perspective, earlier in 2020 this fell from a whopping 111.9% in March to a low of 100.3% by only June! Prices are up from the month before and remain high year over year. Homes are selling quickly, averaging 18 days on market. High demand with low inventory is creating a hot market in Santa Clara.
|Trends At a Glance||Oct 2020||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,475,000 (+5.0%)||$1,405,000||$1,219,000 (+21.0%)|
|Average Price||$1,539,450 (+5.3%)||$1,461,490||$1,246,110 (+23.5%)|
|No. of Sales||60 (+5.3%)||57||46 (+30.4%)|
|Pending||61 (-7.6%)||66||49 (+24.5%)|
|Active||50 (+22.0%)||41||47 (+6.4%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||102.5% (-0.3%)||102.8%||100.0% (+2.5%)|
|Days on Market||18 (-17.3%)||21||27 (-35.4%)|
|Days of Inventory||25 (+19.8%)||21||31 (-18.4%)|
One of the best ways to get a pulse on the Cambrian Park real estate market is to see what’s selling fast. Sometimes a few low sales will make the market look more sluggish than it is. For the Cambrian housing market, though, most single family homes are selling well, with multiple offers, and overbids right now. But not all. So let’s separate them out by time and see how it looks.
Before we begin, it’s important to recognize how much has changed since the beginning of March. With summer and a good deal of autumn behind us we can clearly see some the pandemic’s affect on the real estate market, but it will take time to see the full picture. For more on the impact of the pandemic on the market, check out my post titled Coronavirus impact on real estate sales.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory for the months involved. Current numbers are accurate.
Fast sales are stronger sales: under 14 days is best for Cambrian Park realty sales
Just now (as of November 13th) I pulled the single family home sales for Cambrian (mls area 14) for the last 30 days (mostly October but possibly some November) and saw a huge difference between the homes that sell fast and those that do not. The turning point seems to be 14 days on the market between overbids and underbids.
Out of 73 properties sold in the last 30 days, 52 of them or about 71% sold in 14 days or less, with the average days on market (DOM) for this group a lighting speed 7 days! For these fast selling homes the average list price $1,286,777 and average sale price $1,345,338 (averaging an overbid of $58,561 or approximately 104.5% of list price). Only 6 in that group sold below list price and 2 sold at list price (and 2 more sold for only $1 over, so practically at list price). The majority, 44 properties, sold over asking.
Of the 21 slower sales, roughly 29% of all sales, were on the market between 15 and 63 days. Ten sold above list price (only 4 of these took more than a month to sell), 1 sold at asking, and the remaining 10 sold below (only 4 of these took less than a month to sell).
The Almaden Valley real estate market conditions are favorable to sellers, although it took some hits in spring.
For sellers, this is an active market. It’s showing signs of warming now, though it’s not fully recovered from the impacts of this spring. Sales remain high and steady, indicating that there’s plenty of demand, though inventory is well below where the market should normally be. All in all, Almaden Valley remains in a continual seller’s market.
Before we begin, it’s important to recognize how much has changed since the beginning of March. Over time we will have a better grasp over the pandemic’s affect on the real estate market. For more on the impact of the pandemic on the market, check out my post titled Coronavirus impact on real estate sales.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory within that time frame.
Almaden Valley months of inventory
Just now I logged onto the MLS. As of today (November 13th), there are 19 houses or duet homes (not duplexes, but attached single family homes) for sale in San Jose, CA 95120, aka Almaden Valley. Of those, 12 (or about 63%) are offered at under $2 million, which is the same ratio as last month. Dividing the whole up, none are listed under $1 million, 12 are between $1-2 million, 5 between $2-3 million, and 2 were offered between $3-$4 million. In the last 30 days, 39 single family homes have closed in the same area. When we divide the active listings by the closed sales over 30 days, we get the months of inventory. So for Almaden, 19 divided by 39 = 0.49 months of inventory. That’s a firey hot seller’s market!
Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions: Trends at a Glance
Next, a look at the residential real estate market statistics for Almaden, or San Jose 95120 from the Real Estate Report (a subscription that I have which uses closed / sold data). Sales increased while inventory and pending sales shrank from last month. Compared to last year, sales are up significantly but inventory is only a drop in the bucket. That small inventory is going fast with an average of only 20 days on market. The sales vs list price rose to 102.7%. It’s a hot seller’s market!
Please find the current statistics for single family homes (houses & duet homes) from my Almaden Valley real estate report (click on link for more info).
|Trends At a Glance||Oct 2020||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,685,000 (-0.9%)||$1,700,000||$1,459,440 (+15.5%)|
|Average Price||$1,840,150 (+0.4%)||$1,832,740||$1,472,320 (+25.0%)|
|No. of Sales||39 (+21.9%)||32||24 (+62.5%)|
|Pending||34 (-20.9%)||43||29 (+17.2%)|
|Active||15 (-11.8%)||17||44 (-65.9%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||102.7% (+0.2%)||102.5%||97.4% (+5.5%)|
|Days on Market||20 (-5.4%)||21||42 (-52.8%)|
|Days of Inventory||12 (-25.1%)||15||55 (-79.0%)|
The Evergreen area of San Jose includes many newer homes and communities. It is a desirable Silicon Valley community as Evergreen is scenic and most of the district enjoys highly regarded schools, particularly at the elementary and middle school levels. In this article I’ll provide some information on this section of the valley as well as statistics and analysis on the current real estate market trends, which will be updated periodically. Just want the Evergreen real estate market update? Please scroll down!
Evergreen Real Estate Market Report: Single Family Homes
Before we begin, if you’re looking to learn more about coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales please follow the link to my post on that subject. The changes effected to combat the spread of Covid-19 began mid-March, and while the data in the months since will reflect these changes this is just the tip of the iceberg and we will not understand the full effect this has on the market until it is in the rear view.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. Data for the current months are now accurate, however those previous months mentioned earlier will be affected by this pause.
The Re Report considers all of the Evergreen district together. Please find the full report on my Real Estate Report for the Evergreen area of San Jose. Further down, you’ll see live charts with more zip code specific details.
The Evergreen area showed some warming this October. Sales increased while active inventory shrank, and both are looking extreme compared to 2019! The sales vs list price ratio is the highest it’s been all year at 104.8%. Evergreen homes are in a clear seller’s market!
|Trends At a Glance||Oct 2020||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,471,500 (+21.4%)||$1,212,500||$1,035,000 (+42.2%)|
|Average Price||$1,623,940 (+27.3%)||$1,276,160||$1,249,050 (+30.0%)|
|No. of Sales||46 (+4.5%)||44||38 (+21.1%)|
|Pending||43 (-12.2%)||49||34 (+26.5%)|
|Active||22 (-4.3%)||23||65 (-66.2%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||104.8% (+2.1%)||102.7%||99.7% (+5.1%)|
|Days on Market||17 (-20.9%)||22||31 (-44.9%)|
|Days of Inventory||14 (-5.4%)||15||51 (-72.0%)|