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Morgan Hill real estate market

Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow is the Morgan Hill real estate market? Although the average and median sales prices are giving mixed signals, it’s not climbing like it was earlier in the year. Rising values have been more dramatic here than in many other parts of Silicon Valley or San Jose, but will they fall now that the market is cooling?

  • The average sale price for houses in July was $1,865,640 (+12.6% from June and +22.8% from a year ago)
  • The median sale price for single family homes was $1,500,000 (-0.8% the month prior and +9.9% from this time last year)
  • The sales to list price ratio for homes cooled significantly, dropping to 99.8% (-3.8% from the month before and -5.7% from last year). It hasn’t been this low since the spring of 2020.
  • Days on market were up month-over-month and year-over-year.

All indicators point to a more balanced market on the way, but right now it’s still a clear seller’s market with strong competition for the best homes and a much calmer market for the outliers. Looking year-over-year the market is calming down with fewer sales and more inventory, and prices remain sky high!

See the Santa Clara County real estate market report (for comparison) here.

The Morgan Hill Real Estate Market

The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So if most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 105%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market. With so much pent-up demand, and possibly with buyers being priced out of other areas, this market has been showing significantly more heat than usual, but it’s also calming down a little more quickly than other areas.

First up, the market profile from Altos Research – this is updated weekly, so check back often! You can also view the weekly newsletter through the link below, where you can also subscribe to receive this update every week in your inbox. Prefer a particular zip code instead? You can type in your desired zip in the “Search Anywhere” line and then request that particular weekly update by email.

Altos Research weekly report for all of Morgan Hill

Altos weekly report for 95037 only

Altos weekly report for 95038 only

 

Morgan Hill Real-Time Market Profile

 

Trends at a Glance for Single Family Homes in Morgan Hill

Below is a chart with basic info, to see more click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill.

July was less active, with a significant dip in active inventory and a smaller decline in closed and pending sales. It should be noted that July had a rare luxury home sale – these sales can skew the data some with significantly higher prices and longer time on market compared to a more standard home. The market has clearly cooled off since April, but remains hot with elevated prices year-over-year and shows less significant cooling compared to some other parts of the county.

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,500,000 (-0.8%) $1,512,500 $1,365,000 (+9.9%)
Average Price $1,865,640 (+12.6%) $1,656,250 $1,519,610 (+22.8%)
No. of Sales 41 (-6.8%) 44 54 (-24.1%)
Pending 64 (-5.9%) 68 53 (+20.8%)
Active 51 (-25.0%) 68 48 (+6.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.8% (-3.8%) 103.8% 105.9% (-5.7%)
Days on Market 35 (+115.7%) 16 13 (+161.0%)
Days of Inventory 37 (-16.7%) 45 27 (+39.9%)

 

Single Family Home Live charts from Altos Research (more…)

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian Park real estate market is flattening, and for this part of San Jose generally,

  • Single family home prices are about equal to what they were a year ago.
  • Houses are selling in about 3 weeks and over list price.
  • This climate makes it a good time to sell, but it’s also a much better time to buy than we’ve seen in years.
  • The condo market has softened month over month, but is much stronger than it was a year ago.

For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

Here is a good summary on the Cambrian real estate market. The RE Report is having some issues with reporting from the MLS, so this data may not be exact but we can still understand the current trends with this chart.

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,539,000 (-7.8%) $1,668,700 $1,560,000 (-1.3%)
Average Price $1,658,990 (-4.4%) $1,735,240 $1,628,370 (+1.9%)
No. of Sales 45 (-33.8%) 68 71 (-36.6%)
Pending 70 (-4.1%) 73 66 (+6.1%)
Active 60 (+7.1%) 56 55 (+9.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.8% (-4.1%) 106.2% 110.8% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 22 (+59.6%) 14 11 (+98.9%)
Days of Inventory 40 (+67.5%) 24 23 (+72.1%)

 

Cambrian Park Altos Research Charts

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Saratoga CA Real Estate Market Update

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California - photo for article on the Saratoga CA real estate market

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

The Saratoga CA real estate market is softening, as is the case across the county right now, but prices remain up year over year and it is still a seller’s market – just a milder one.

Please note that it is not uncommon to see softening between Spring and Summer, so the month over month data is in many ways not quite as significant as the year over year figures.

  • Saratoga house prices fell both month over month AND year over year
    • The average sale price in July was $3,524,030 (-3.0% from the year before and -12.9% from the month before)
    • The median sale price  was $3,075,000 (-9% from July 2021 and -17.4% from June 2022)
  • The absorption rate slowed to 68 days, up from 41 in June 2022 and 31 in July 2021
  • The sale to list price ratio went to 100.8% in July 2022, down from June’s 103.8% and July 2021’s 107.2

 

How’s the Saratoga CA real estate market?

Saratoga has a diverse real estate market due to a wide range of home prices, square footage, lot sizes, school districts, and more. The luxury tier, generally $4 million and up (but in Saratoga, that’s really still just a house in an expensive zip code) normally moves slower than other price points. Saratoga’s entry level housing is usually the strongest. If the numbers swing wildly at any given month, it could be that more or fewer homes in a particular school district and pricing tier.

First, a quick glance at the Altos Research market profile for a quick summary of the market conditions. Altos uses LIST prices, not sold prices, for this chart and the others, below.

 

Real-Time Market Profile Saratoga, CA 95070

Next, let’s turn to the closed sales from last month. This time we’re using data from a subscription service of mine to the RE Report.

Here are the real estate sales statistics for closed sales last month among houses and duet homes (if there are any) in the 95070 zip code. Bottom line is that most livable homes in Saratoga will run between $3 and $5 million if they are mid sized (2000-3000 SF) and in the best schools area (Saratoga or Cupertino). Homes in the Campbell schools area, which have very strong elementary and middle schools, are fewer and generally more affordable, closer to $2 – $3.5 million (and occasionally lower), but depending on size, condition, and location they can be significantly higher.

Trends at a Glance for the Saratoga CA Real Estate Market

Data below is from the ReReport.

Most of the data points below indicate a cooling market. Home prices are still up from a year ago, but the days on market, days of inventory, and sale to list price ratio are all calmer than either a month ago or a year ago.

Trends At a Glance Jul 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $3,075,000 (-17.4%) $3,725,000 $3,380,000 (-9.0%)
Average Price $3,524,030 (-12.9%) $4,048,040 $3,631,300 (-3.0%)
No. of Sales 16 (-33.3%) 24 31 (-48.4%)
Pending 49 (+11.4%) 44 50 (-2.0%)
Active 36 (+5.9%) 34 32 (+12.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.8% (-2.9%) 103.8% 107.2% (-6.0%)
Days on Market 27 (+56.8%) 17 12 (+122.3%)
Days of Inventory 68 (+64.3%) 41 31 (+118.0%)

 

Absorption rate

The absorption rate refers to how quickly inventory would be sold off if no new homes came on the market and if sales continued at the same pass. (A good analogy is how long would it take for a bathtub to drain if no new water is coming into the tub and if the water kept draining at the same rate.) The absorption rate can be the days of inventory, the weeks of inventory, or the months of inventory.

Just now I pulled the MLS for the months of inventory in Saratoga. the MLS figures are a little different than the RE Report info, I believe due to data feeds and some duplicates on the MLS. Whatever the cause, you can see in the data table below that the months of inventory have increased quite a lot since April. The last time the absorption rate was this high in July was 2016. This is a warm seller’s market, however, it’s no longer a hot one.

 

Saratoga CA real estate - months of inventory

 

Altos Research – list prices for Saratoga CA 95070 (more…)

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends

Leo or Leona - the mascot of Los Gatos

The Los Gatos real estate market trends are toward a softer balance between sellers and buyers, but it is still a warm seller’s market.  We are well past the peak pricing and are seeing significant cooling with every data point over the last several months.

As of today, August 8, some info on single family  homes in LG 95030 & 95032:

  • 48  single family homes are on the market in “Active” status, 3 are listed as “agent only, show”, and 2 are “agent only, do not show”). The agent only listings means that they are not syndicated to other websites, meaning 5 of the homes for sale will not be seen on places like Realtor.com.
  • 4 houses are under contract but there are contingencies of some kind in place (could be loan, appraisal, property inspection, buyer to sell current home, seller to find a replacement home) – so those sales may not go through.
  • 23  houses are sale pending, no contingencies (this is a small number compared to the active listings).
  • 19 houses have closed escrow in the last month, down from 26 on June 8 and 33 in early May (sales are falling).
  • The average sale price to list price ratio for these 25 houses was 101% (down from 104% in July.

 

Los Gatos real estate market trends: multi year stats

Inventory is rising but remains below what has been normal since 2013. Th is is a little surprising to me. Once we got past the peak of the market I was somewhat expecting sellers to quickly get their homes listed. But we have not seen an abnormal increase of listings. (Clair’s and my sellers are largely holding off for better selling conditions.)

 

Los Gatos inventory of homes for sale in 95030 and 95032

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends: inventory of houses for sale

 

Number of closed and sold Los Gatos homes

The number of sales is not keeping up with the new inventory pouring on the market. Buyers are less interested than they once were in buying. The culprits for the change in motivation are simple: much higher interest rates, high sale prices, the devaluation of stocks (the source of many down payments), fears of recession, uncertainty due to the Russian war in Ukraine.

Sales are really down! 

 

 Closed sales - Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 SFH

Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends: number of sold properties

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Updating the Campbell Real Estate Market

Tudor style house on graphic that says - How's the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a strong seller’s market that was blazing hot earlier this year – but there’s been a good deal of cooling lately! This article, updated monthly, offers data and analysis on the residential real estate market within this popular Silicon Valley community. Here are a few details from the latest update on Campbell’s single family housing market:

  • The average sales to list price ratio for homes sold last month plunged to 99.5% of asking. This is the lowest we’ve seen since January 2020. According to the MLS, the highest was 108% (significantly lower than June’s highest at 131%), and the lowest was 93%.
  • Prices are not far from last year.
  • Average turnover slowed to 26 days on market.
  • Data shows that July saw a little growth in active inventory, and slightly fewer closed and pending sales. This is a great opportunity for buyers!

The market in this popular west valley city remains hot despite a distinct cooling.

The Campbell, CA Real Estate Market

It’s hard to predict what’s coming next, especially since Silicon Valley real estate is connected to the global economy and many buyers rely on stocks to finance their purchase. On top of that, we’re emerging from an already atypical couple of years!

The market has not followed typical seasonal trends since before spring 2020, although we’re starting to see a bit more balance start to return in late spring of 2022. The charts below certainly show the impact of the pandemic on the real estate market, but we won’t see the full picture until it’s behind us. Read more about how the Coronavirus impacted real estate sales on my blog post about the topic.

If you’re selling a well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced house, you’ll likely see multiple offers on your home for sale. If it’s in an especially sought-after area and has good bones and a nice finish, the number of offers can create a bidding war. Competition is high enough that it’s pushing many buyers to make offers without any contingencies and above list price. For hot homes, desparate and worn out buyers sometimes spike prices well above list price just to get their foot in the door! However we’re also starting to see more worn out and priced-out buyers begin to exit the market and properties recieving fewer offers, or more contingent offers being accepted.

The market is overdue for a correction and we’re starting to feel a change in the wind. It will likely take a while for the market to balance out, so sellers this could still be a good time to list.

Here’s a quick view of the Campbell real estate market stats from Altos Research, using list prices (not sales price) which updates automatically about once per week:

Campbell Altos Real-Time Market Profile

The Altos chart is showing Campbell, CA single family homes in a strong seller’s market with a steady dip in market action, modest growth in inventory, and slightly lengthening days on market. Homes are hot in Campbell, but it is cooling down.

And now –  here are some quick stats, pulled from the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) through the RE Report:

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Milpitas real estate market

Milpitas Real Estate MarketThe Milpitas real estate market is clearly cooling out of a record breaking seller’s market. Altos Research has called it a strong seller’s market for many months now, and that remains the case today, although it’s nowhere near what it was in spring. Here are a few more points from the latest update to the Milpitas single family homes market, with more data and analysis in the article below:

  • July’s sale to list price ratio continued to cool significantly month-over-month dropping to 97.3%, down 8.6% from the month before, and falling below 100% for the first time since January 2020 – the lowest monthly SLP% we’ve seen in over a decade!
  • Time on market averaged at 27 days, slower than last month and nearly twice as long as last year.
  • The average single family home price in July was $1,631,440 (down 2.8% from the month before, and up 1.4% from a year ago)
  • The median sale price was $1,650,000 (up 4.1% from the month before, and up 4.4% from a year ago)
  • Inventory didn’t grow, pending sales shot up, and closed sales plummetted.

The Milpitas Real Estate Market

Milpitas is perpetually attractive for home buyers as the location is convenient and offers good schools. Many areas are close to the hills and enjoy scenic views, too.

So let’s look at some data. First up, the Altos charts using list price and active listings. It is updated automatically on a weekly basis, so check back often:

Altos Real-Time Market Profile, Milpitas

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The real estate market in San Jose’s Blossom Valley area

Pan of Santa Teresa and Blossom Valley

Pan of Santa Teresa and Blossom Valley

The Blossom Valley housing market is showing clear signs of cooling, in a declining seller’s market. Active inventory is on the rise and the best properties (homes in good shape which are priced appropriately) continue to sell quickly and regularly above list price. While the market can vary based on price point, schools, zip codes, etc., the entire area is in high demand!

This article contains the latest monthly updates for the residential real estate market in San Jose’s Blossom Valley area. A few points from the single family housing market this month include:

  •  July’s average and median closed sales price both decreased by 5.2% and 10.8% respectively from the month before. Prices aren’t far from last year, but just a few months ago in spring prices were up around 28%-29% year-over-year!
  • The average listing took 20 days to sell – significantly slower than earlier this year with 7 days in April and stable at 6 days from January through March. Still, sales in under a month are well within what would be considered quick turnover.
  • The sales to list price ratio plummetted from an average sale at 110.1% of asking in June to an average of 100.9% in July. This is another dip both month-over-month and year-over-year, but on the lower end of typical July levels over the past 10 years which tend to fall between 101% – 105%.
  • Inventory is growing and sales are slowing down – this is a great time to purchase!

About Blossom Valley

The Blossom Valley area of San Jose is on the south end of the city and covers the 95123 and 95136 zip codes. For our MLS, it’s “area 12.” A more affordable section of Silicon Valley, it has much to offer in addition to more reasonable housing prices. Many areas enjoy views of the Santa Teresa Foothills or the Communications Hill knolls or even the coastal foothills in the distance, as with the photo above. One corner of it sits alongside beautiful Almaden Lake, too. Another corner is located at the crossroads of Highways 85 and 87, making it an easy commute destination for those working in downtown San Jose. And there’s an abundance of shopping and dining opportunities.

Now for some market data.

Live Altos Reports

We’ll start with the Altos Reports, which gague the market based on active listings, not sales, and is updated about once per week.

95123 real estate market trends, automatically updated weekly:

Blossom Valley Real-Time Market Profile by Altos Research

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