Silicon Valley Real Estate Info
Home sales in Santa Clara County continued to rise dramatically in July. The average home price was up significantly from last year and up a little from last month. The median sale price was up from last year but down a hair from last month. Multiple, non-contingent offers are common on single family homes that sell quickly (or soon after a price reduction). Small condos or those with no outdoor space are harder to sell right now.
Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Data
Days on market were down month over month and year over year. The first image below is the brief update on the housing market from my Silicon Valley RE Report.
Data from MLS Listings for the Santa Clara County real estate market
Inventory often rises in summer, but this year the listings are selling almost as fast as they come on the market, so available inventory is extremely low. Check out July’s inventory, which is counted on the last day of the month, versus other Julys in recent history.
Have you ever been to the J & P Cosentino Family Farm? If you’re a foodie who’s been in the Bay Area for a while, you might remember the incomparable quality of groceries at the Cosentino’s Markets or the insightful broadcasts on KLIV radio’s Produce Report by Mr. Produce himself, Phil Cosentino. While the famous fresh food family has stepped back from the spotlight in its members retirement years, you can still enjoy the taste of delicious Cosentino quality produce from the J & P Cosentino Family Farm!
The Cambrian area of San Jose is a very “hot market” overall, but it can be confusing to know how hot it really is, just like the rest of Santa Clara County, because there are multiple school districts – and schools are probably the number one driver of home values in this highly educated valley. Also, we know that the market started off hotter than the year before but cooled down a lot in Spring due to the pandemic. As rules start to loosen again, the market has started to heat up quite noticeably! The best homes are still the ones selling quickly and often with multiple-offers.
An explanation of “months of inventory”
What does “months of inventory” mean? This figure references how long it would take to sell a property if homes continued to sell and close at the current pace with no new inventory coming on the market. A good analogy is to consider a bathtub which drains. If you add no new water to the tub, how long will it take to empty out?
The months of inventory is sometimes called the absorption rate. The question is simple: how long will it take for the current inventory of homes for sale to get absorbed by the home buyers purchasing them? It doesn’t have to be calculated by months. It could be in days, weeks, or years. But months is probably most common.
The months of inventory for any part of the real estate market can vary, depending on many factors, including age of home, house size, lot size, and school district, whether or not there’s a pool, and many other things. It can be very useful to understand this metric when selling a Silicon Valley home. I’ve done market numbers crunching tied to the specific characteristics of a property (say, small yard with pool or big yard with no pool) to find the impact of those characteristics on the probability that a home will sell – or how fast.
The Cambrian area of San Jose’s months of inventory as a whole, and in one price point
Cambrian was once an enormous zone of the Santa Clara Valley. Today we mostly think of it as within San Jose in the 95124 and 95118 zip codes. Some of it it adjacent to Campbell – a very tiny sliver is IN Campbell (we’re only dealing with the San Jose portion in our charts), and a tinier still area is in San Jose and is under the Campbell School Union District. Most of this area is in one of three elementary school districts: Cambrian, Union, or San Jose Unified.
Here’s the breakdown – first, for ALL of Cambrian (MLS area 14 for my Realtor readers) that’s within the City of San Jose and second, by elementary school district. We will look at all prices for single family homes and then within a price range of $900K – $1.2M. The area for Campbell Elementary is so small that the numbers are usually not statistically useful (no offense to the Campbell school residents). It can just jump around too much to be helpful and often gives us no usable data. Often, as in this most recent batch, there are no homes available or sold from this area at all.
Please have a look – once again, the homes in the Union School District are “red hot”, especially those in the lower price points, but this time San Jose Unified is absolutely scorching hot and holds the majority of the lower-price market!
These homes are flying off the market right now! Although the majority of sales and active inventory are coming from the Union Elementary School District, San Jose Unified is only a hair behind it for sales and is the clear lead for sales in the entry-level market. On the other hand, the Cambrian Elementary District has lower sales and active inventory and remains a much slower market, though it’s hotter than it was earlier this year. Inventory has grown, but it’s still low for the high levels of demand creating a hot seller’s market – especially in entry-level homes.
Below we have past charts for comparison. I do this analysis a few times a year, and it is good to see the long view.
When locals think of Willow Glen, most will picture the charming historic homes and bustling downtown strip, but this attractive community extends beyond the historic blocks. The Willow Glen Neighborhood Association defines the Central and Historic Willow Glen area apart from the Greater Willow Glen Neighborhood and Planning Area, roughly 10.4 square miles with approximately 82,000 residents. One of the scenic communities of the greater Willow Glen area is Doerr Park.
Doerr Park, sometimes called Doerr-Steindorf or simply Doerr, is within the 95124 zip code of San Jose, not far from the Cambrian border. The boundaries of this community are Curtner Ave, Meridian Ave, Foxworthy Ave, and Leigh Ave (See it on this Google Map). It is marked by tidy homes and yards with neat green lawns and airy street trees. Towards the center of this highly walkable neighborhood sits a nearly 12 acre city park. Doerr Park is a sunny community park with expansive lawns, open tree groves, picnic benches with barbeque stations, two magnificent playgrounds for different age groups (one of them has 3-tiered climbing towers and long slides for the older children!), a basketball court, softball field, four tennis courts, and restrooms. The park is very popular!
This neighborhood is accessible, too! There’s shopping and an office complex at the corner of Foxworthy Ave and Meridian, with a Grocery Outlet, gas station, and bank. It’s very close to more shopping including restaurants, Target, Home Depot, and more. For commuters, it’s only a 6 minute drive to 85, 17, and Almaden Expy, and there are bus lines which run along Curtner and Leigh.
There are a few possible negatives to consider, however. Some areas are beside easements for high voltage power lines, though a large portion of the easement connecting to the park has recently been transformed into a community trail. Not all phone lines are under ground, which might be considered an eyesore by some.
How is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4,000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility.
That combined with all that’s happened this March, the data from the last month might not be as good a predictor for the market as it normally would be. Though we’ve begun to see changes to the market over the last few months, we won’t know the full impact for a while. For now you can read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my post on the topic.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. So while June data is accurate, please disregard any DOM data for the prior months.
There are no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno at present (we are watching closely the proposed development at La Rinconada, which is unincorporated as of this writing). One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (a pdf online): http://www.montesereno.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/674
Below is a quick market profile for Monte Sereno. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.
As of the latest update, July 14th, 2020, the Monte Sereno market is in a strong seller’s advantage with, surprisingly, a rising market action! Most areas are seeing steady, sharp declines in market action right now, but this market has seen increasing action for two months in a row now. Still, Monte Sereno has very few active listings, so the data for this chart can have large swings in data due to one or two outstanding listings.
Altos Research does weekly reports, to which I subscribe. You can see the full weekly report for Monte Sereno HERE and you can click the subscribe button there if you’d like to get it weekly (or navigate to another zip code or city and subscribe to that). Here’s the data on home descriptions per price quartile in the report, updated automatically throughout the month:
It looks like prices have risen dramatically and then fallen again in all but the lowest price tier. The top two tiers are well above where they have been since the last peak around late 2017 and early 2018, and the third tier hasn’t seen these numbers since early 2018. Remember, low inventory and fewer sales mean greater swings in data.
Stats for recently closed home sales in Monte Sereno
Here are the quick statistics for the closed sales in the last complete month to give a sense of how things are going with the Monte Sereno real estate market. Sales data comes from my Monte Sereno Real Estate Report. Given that the supply of homes to study is tiny, what can we tell from this data?
It’s true that an average Monte Sereno house is about $2.5-3.5 million, and often higher in the current market – a little steep for most folks!
Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance:
Sales rose by this month from 3 in May to 6 in June. Small pools of data can shift drastically very quickly, so it’s important to take this data with a grain of salt. Still it’s an improvement over the lone 1 sale in March and 2 sales in February. Looking back a little farther, sales have caught back up to where they were in 2019, though active inventory is still falling short. The market is much cooler than where we would have expected without the pandemic, but it’s still an active seller’s market.
|Trends At a Glance||Jun 2020||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$3,577,500 (+48.8%)||$2,405,000||$3,312,500 (+8.0%)|
|Average Price||$3,914,640 (+38.2%)||$2,831,670||$3,191,670 (+22.7%)|
|No. of Sales||6 (+100.0%)||3||6 (0.0%)|
|Pending||7 (+16.7%)||6||5 (+40.0%)|
|Active||10 (+25.0%)||8||16 (-37.5%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||97.6% (-9.0%)||107.2%||102.5% (-4.8%)|
|Days on Market||44 (-40.8%)||75||40 (+11.8%)|
|Days of Inventory||48 (-39.6%)||80||77 (-37.5%)|
And the month before:
|Trends At a Glance||May 2020||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$2,405,000 (-25.8%)||$3,242,500||$3,700,000 (-35.0%)|
|Average Price||$2,831,670 (-24.5%)||$3,752,500||$4,085,420 (-30.7%)|
|No. of Sales||3 (-25.0%)||4||6 (-50.0%)|
|Pending||6 (+100.0%)||3||6 (0.0%)|
|Active||8 (+14.3%)||7||17 (-52.9%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||107.2% (+4.5%)||102.6%||98.3% (+9.1%)|
|Days on Market||75 (+1,393.3%)||5||24 (+206.8%)|
|Days of Inventory||80 (+57.6%)||51||85 (-5.9%)|
Because so few houses sell per month, pricing appears to jump around when that’s not actually the case. The Monte Sereno home prices tend to be a little higher but generally follow the Los Gatos trends, so it’s worth while to view this info also to get a more balanced sense of how things are for real estate in Monte Sereno. Also, for those considering buying or selling, it’s important to look at the actual listings for each and every sale with similar features, size, amenities to get a sense of your home’s particular subset of the market.
Next, let’s look at the live charts from Altos to see how active listings reflect the market as seen from viewing sold listings.
How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market? The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable but offers lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time, making the area more desirable. These positives seem to be helping that area to hold its value well.
Santa Teresa (our MLS Area 2) includes a small bit of the 95123 zip code, which is more expensive, but most of that zip is Blossom Valley, so we will omit it. The 95138 zip code is about half Santa Teresa and half Evergreen (more expensive area), so take those numbers with a big grain of salt. I find the 95119 zip code to be most helpful, but even then, the school district is divided between Oak Grove and Morgan Hill.
Since the start of March there have been many changes affecting the real estate industry. We’re starting to have a better view of the impact of the pandemic response on the local real estate markets, but it will take a while to get the full picture. For now, read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales in my other post.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory for the previous months, though June and later data is accurate again.
Weekly update from Altos Research with a “market profile” of San Jose’s Santa Teresa area, zip code 95119 for single family homes / houses:
This week’s update (as of writing this, July 9th) the chart looks fairly bare. There are only 3 active listings at the moment, and last month when I updated this page there were only 2 in 95119. Altos has shown a strong seller’s market in this area for a while, though it has been bouncing between strong and mild with extremely low inventory over the last year or so.
Weekly update from Altos Research with look at a glance of zip code 95138 for single family homes or houses:
Update on the Santa Clara real estate market: The realty market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one in which the sellers have the upper hand, though it has seen significant softening. What is key for home sellers is to price according to today’s market.
That being said, this March had some major changes that are affecting the market. But March data won’t show the full impact of the pandemic, and while we have a better picture of it in this month’s data it will take a while to see the end result. To read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales, check my post on the topic.
During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. That means the June data will be accurate, but disregard prior months DOM data.
Below there are charts for the market activity over the last few months. Although it’s been on the rise for months, it’s finally begun to dip again. Low inventory from the past year and continuous low inventory around the rest of the Valley means there is still a greater demand to fill than properties available. Further in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.
First, a market profile, automatically updated weekly, for the city of Santa Clara (these reports are available by zip code, too, and for condos/townhomes as well as single family dwellings). Check out the weekly Altos report HERE and click on subscribe to get weekly updates on all of Santa Clara or any particular zip code. (Scroll to the bottom and check out the profile of houses across 4 pricing quartiles – super interesting.)
According to Altos, it’s a strong seller’s market right now with market action continuing it’s decline.
Data from my RE Report:
Next, stats at a glance for the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes. See the statistics and trends for closings and listings for last month – updated each month on about the 5th – 10th on my RE Report site for realty stats & trends in Santa Clara:
Trends at a Glance
Seasonal cooling is normal in winter, but this year we never saw a strong shift – it remained a hot market through winter getting progressively hotter towards spring! That being said, spring saw significant cooling since March with the pandemic. In June, active inventory and pending sales rose while the number of sales dropped a hair. The sales to list price ratio remains over 100%, but has fallen a whopping 11.6% from March to June! That being said, prices are up and holding strong compared to this time last year. Continuing demand is keeping the Campbell market hot, even if it’s cooler than usual (and much cooler than earlier this year).
|Trends At a Glance||Jun 2020||Previous Month||Year-over-Year|
|Median Price||$1,400,000 (+5.3%)||$1,330,000||$1,400,000 (0.0%)|
|Average Price||$1,469,160 (+4.3%)||$1,409,150||$1,438,920 (+2.1%)|
|No. of Sales||40 (+53.8%)||26||43 (-7.0%)|
|Pending||49 (+8.9%)||45||44 (+11.4%)|
|Active||42 (-2.3%)||43||85 (-50.6%)|
|Sale vs. List Price||100.3% (-2.9%)||103.3%||103.8% (-3.4%)|
|Days on Market||23 (+20.8%)||19||17 (+32.4%)|
|Days of Inventory||30 (-38.6%)||50||57 (-46.9%)|