How are the key housing indicators in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? At the moment it’s said to be a hot “seller’s market” overall. But look closer and you can see that in the Almaden Valley housing market there are clear market micro-climates. Prices are better for sellers, while buyers struggle with higher prices and less homes to choose from. Recently we have seen a slight cooling, too – very welcome for Almaden home buyers.
Almaden Valley Housing Market: Inventory of Houses for Sale
Right now I have a few Almaden Valley home buyers and they have all been disappointed at the lack of inventory. What’s happening?
First, let’s see what “usually” happens in the 95120 zip code in terms of the number of houses for sale. Here’s a look at the last 10 years (all available history), care of Altos Research – you can see that it’s been rising since January 1st, but it’s a proverbial drop in the bucket:
Here you can see that inventory has regular peaks and dips. Inventory tends to rise early each year and peak in mid to late summer. After the peak is a decline through autumn and winter with the lowest point in the coldest part of the year before turning around again before spring.
Now let’s look up close at just the last 3 years. Again, inventory IS rising, so it’s betting a little easier for buyers, but still difficult compared to the last 3 years.
As usual, our inventory bottoms out in winter and then rises beginning sometime after the Super Bowl or perhaps a little later. Right now we are still in “rising inventory” mode in Almaden, so the market should be softening a little. Also, we are hearing of “buyer fatigue”, so in many cases there may be fewer offers than earlier in the spring.
The impact on sales is not hard to predict: the available inventory is being bought up. Often the ratio of pending sales to available properties runs anywhere from about 50% to 70% (so 1 pending for every 2 available = 50%). Right now, though, on May 8 2018, the ratio is a hair over 100%. Buyers still have to buy. (So sellers, the odds are better for selling now as opposed to when there’s more inventory.)
How are the Days on Market in 95120?
Here’s a view of the turnover for all price points in Almaden over the last 3 years combined:
Next, one year with the four price quartiles separated out. See how much longer it takes to sell a “luxury home” than “entry level” in this part of San Jose? Still, all tiers are showing fairly level, low turnover for the last few months.
What about list prices of Almaden homes for sale?
The median list price is increasing, but more slowly than earlier in the year. This means that it’ll be a little easier to predict what a home will go for on market at this time, but it’ll definitely be more than a year ago.
And here’s the data by price quartile across all of Almaden for the last year:
Remember, please, that it may vary if you’re in a more or less desirable area, have more or less land, the house is more or less remodeled, etc. – these are general trends!
Looking closer in time, let’s have a peek at the last 30 days:
It’s pretty flat across price points right now.
Median List Price Per Square Feet in San Jose 95120
Anyone buying now will get significantly less house for the money than a few years ago:
Here’s a look at the last year by price quartile. Can you guess it’s been a crazy market? :