The Almaden Valley real estate market is complex – “how it is” very much depends on the price point, school district (there are several in Almaden) and neighborhood. The broad overview and the micro-view of this San Jose area are both helpful to buyers and sellers. Today we’ll do a little of each. (Graphs courtesy of two subscriptions I have: one is the REReport and the other is Altos Research. Both used by permission.)
First let’s see how Almaden Valley homes for sale fared in recent months, in 2008 and in recent years. Then we’ll have a look at the current situation. Here are a couple of graphs that make clear the condo market in this part of Silicon Valley:
Inventory has been rising in recent months, and sales have been declining fairly steadily in recent years. If you have friends who sell homes or home loans and work the Almaden or Silicon Valley market, you already know that things have been worsening for quite awhile.
Now let’s look at the single family home market; first is the the days of inventory over the last 18 months or so and then the number of sales in Almaden over the last few years.
The patterns among single family homes in Almaden are even more clear in terms of the numbers of sales: it’s a straight decline. Time on the market has fluctuated a little but the overall movement has been for longer time to sell a home.
So that’s a look back in time, using sold data.
Now let’s have a look at “real time” or more current market information using the currently available homes for sale (and list prices).
How long does it take to sell a home in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose? Below please find graphs indicating the average “days on market” for the 95120 zip code, which is the same as the boundaries of the Almaden Valley area of San Jose. The data is divided by price quartile, since sometimes the market is different from one price point to the next.
First, a look at condos in San Jose, 95120:
Next, the graph for single family homes in San Jose 95120:
While there’s some variation, the patterns are fairly consistent: the days on market were lowest last summer but rose again and are generally higher than they’ve been in recent history. Obviously, the longer it takes to sell a home, the worse it is for sellers and the better it is for buyers.
How about levels of inventory? First let’s view the condos and then the single family homes.
Next, we’ll see about the inventory of single family homes in the Almaden district of San Jose:
Surprisingly, the inventory levels are almost identical across both housing types and price points. This is often not the case!
Finally, the issue that is most important to home buyers and home sellers in Almaden Valley, in Silicon Valley or virtually anywhere: pricing. How are home values holding up? How is affordability?
Among Almaden Valley condos, real estate median list prices are falling, but not at the same rate or level across all price points. The lowest priced homes appear to have had the “steadiest” pricing, and the second highest price point appears to have had the most volatility.
Finally, we’ll look at the single family homes’ median list prices by quartile in Almaden.
Here we see that the lower priced homes, the more affordable ones, are not coming down in list price nearly as much as in the high end prices. Relative to the rest of Santa Clara County, Almaden home values are holding up pretty well. While some areas see a change of 35% in the median price, here we see that it’s often within 10%. This is also true in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cupertino, Los Altos, Palo Alto, and anywhere in which the incomes are higher than normal and schools are much better than average.
It is reinforced that the old adage about the importance of location is not just something for days gone by, but is equally true today.
In sum, the bargain prices are not going to be found in Almaden as they are in some parts of the Santa Clara Valley. But at the same time, it appears that these homes, whether houses, townhomes or condos, will “hold their value” better than normal too.
This is, of course, an overview. Your neighborhood, or the one in which you wish to buy, may be different. The Graystone area is different than Oak Canyon, for instance – they have different school districts, different commutes, etc. For information on a particular area, please contact me today for a confidential consulation.
