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The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market is now clearly in transition. While it remains a strong seller’s market, things are beginning to cool off from where they were earlier this year.

First, some quick data from my RE Report via the bullets and chart below. There appears to be a small amount of undercounting or overcounting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, but the information is still good for tracking trends.

  • The August 2022 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped again to 100.0% of asking (-1% from last month compared to -5% drop in July), and remains below last year for the third month in a row.
  • Average monthly home prices are down from a year ago for the first time since 2019
    • The median sale price is $1,400,000 (-5.4% from the month before, and -2.4% from a year ago)
    • The average sale price was $1,525,840 (-5.0% from the month before, and -2.0% from last year)
  • The days on market slowed again to an average of 3.5 weeks at 24 days, twice as long as last year

War, inflation, stock market, recession concerns – and real estate

Many of our home buyers are financially powered by tech stocks, stock options, and RSUs. When the stock market tanks, some buyers will rush to put their cash into real estate (the quip we often hear is that “real estate does not go to zero” and “at least you can live in it”.

For some, the rising interest rates combined with the lower stock values have been a double whammy on affordability in a market still seeing sky high prices. If the most amply capable buyers don’t want to sell their holdings at a 10% or more discount from what they were, that will impact how much they are willing to pay.

We are finally seeing signs of cooling in the market with homes recieving fewer offers than they may have at the peak of the market, and prices are coming down. That said, much of the entry-level market is still raging hot. The best homes, when appropriately priced and marketed, are still recieving multiple offers and selling well above asking.

However one thing is keeping the market hot: limited inventory. Nationwide, inventory has begun to drop again and overall we remain in a housing supply shortage (each market will vary, of course). So how far off are we from “normal” inventory levels? Let’s have a look at historic active listings in San Jose. (If the chart is too small, click to see in full size.)

San Jose Historic Active Inventory 2022-09-14

At the start of the chart, 2010, the market was still reeling from the 2008 recession, but by 2017 we were seeing a strong sellers market with record low inventory. While listings are certainly up from 2021’s rock-bottom lows, it’s still limited and well below that of more balanced market years like 2013 and 2014.

Will the shortage of homes lead to wild market action like earlier this year? Unlikely. With everything else that’s changed such as the interest rates rising. But will it continue to cool or will it heat up again in autumn? We’ll have to wait and see.

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,400,000 (-5.4%) $1,480,000 $1,435,000 (-2.4%)
Average Price $1,525,840 (-5.0%) $1,605,590 $1,557,630 (-2.0%)
No. of Sales 359 (+29.1%) 278 495 (-27.5%)
Pending 642 (+7.5%) 597 627 (+2.4%)
Active 469 (-21.0%) 594 357 (+31.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.0% (-1.0%) 101.0% 108.8% (-8.1%)
Days on Market 24 (+12.3%) 21 12 (+94.4%)
Days of Inventory 39 (-38.9%) 64 22 (+81.1%)

 

Please keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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Los Altos: Beautiful Silicon Valley Suburb

Los Altos downtownLos Altos is a scenic town, semi-rural, conveniently located, with notably good schools (Los Altos or Cupertino schools). The charming old style downtown enjoys superior restaurants, shops, and is a pleasant place to stroll. The town enjoys a community college and a golf course. Its a great place for pedestrians and cyclists (lots of paths), and is a quick jaunt to both Palo Alto and Mountain View, both very popular peninsula destinations.

There’s a brief history of Los Altos on that city’s website that I found interesting. First, the land that started the community was originally 140 acres purchased from Sarah Winchester. Second, Foothill Expressway used to be a right of way for the Southern Pacific Railroad. The train line ceased operations in 1964, and the expressway was put in. Love local history from the Valley of Heart’s Delight? The Los Altos History Museum is a worthwhile destination.

The zip codes don’t stay within the city’s boundaries. Both 94022 and 94024 can be found in Los Altos and adjacent Los Altos Hills.

Los Altos Real Estate Market Conditions

Below please find first information from Altos Research, and then from the RE Report (I have subscriptions to both). Altos’ data is for the city and by zip codes. It uses list prices and its charts and reports are updated automatically each week. The RE Report uses data for each full month and provides it for the city as a whole and also by four distinct regions or neighborhoods. Both reports offer a subscription option if you click on the links.

The next 3 charts are from Altos Research and they are updated weekly, so check back often!  You can see the weekly report, with even more data, by visiting the link. Subscribe for Los Altos, for one of its zip codes, or anywhere else nearby by first entering the desired zip or city in the “Search Anywhere” button and then clicking on subscribe.

Whole town- both 94022 and 94024

 

 

94022

 

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The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The Monte Sereno real estate market is similar to Los Gatos, but distinct - Monte Sereno shares many features with Los Gatos but is a distinct cityHow is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 3,500 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. This article is updated monthly with new data and analysis, so scroll down to read the latest and check back regularly. Here are a few details from the latest market update:

  • This city is currently in a strong seller’s market with low inventory – just 4 available homes at the end of August.
  • Closed sales remained stable month-over-month and just a hair lower year-over-year.
  • The August 2022 market is looking a little less active than the July market, and with much lower sales (although with so few sales, that isn’t too indicative).

There are ALMOST no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno. As of August 2022, the MLS showed just 6 sales in these two categories in total – and that’s going back to 1998! One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (an online pdf):  http://www.montesereno.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/674

Below is a quick market profile for Monte Sereno. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.

Monte Sereno Altos Real-Time Market Profile

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Almaden homes for sale

Almaden Homes for Sale - two story house in San Jose's Almaden Valley, 95120Browse Almaden homes for sale here! This scenic part of San Jose, which mostly follows the 95120 zip code, sits nestled between the coastal mountain range and the Santa Teresa foothills.

If you are just getting to know this South San Jose area, you might want to begin by reading this article first:
What are the advantages of buying a home in Almaden Valley?

Many Silicon Valley home buyers are looking for new construction, but the best land in Santa Clara County was built up decades ago, so there are not many new homes in Almaden Valley, San Jose.

Pricing comments for the Almaden homes for sale

The Almaden homes for sale with Leland High School tend to sell for more than those with other schools as it is so high scoring, however, all of the public schools in Almaden Valley are good! One of the most affordable neighborhoods for that part of 95120 is Creekside Almaden. At the end of that article you can see any Creekside Almaden homes for sale.

Other factors that will impact the sale price are views, as some homes enjoy some elevation or have particularly stunning vistas, as well as the home’s  size, condition, lot size, landscaping, and other typical elements.

Each month we update the Almaden Valley real estate market conditions, so you may want to bookmark it and visit often.

Listings now available in 95120: Almaden homes for sale

These will include everything showable in the 95120 zip code, including the prized New Almaden homes for sale. The most recently added Almaden homes for sale will appear first. Please also read “an important word about the total number of listings” below, as feeds such as this one may only show a large percentage, but not all, available houses, townhouses, or condominiums to buy.

  • List View
  • Map View
  • Grid View

See all Almaden area of San Jose, California Real Estate.
(all data current as of 9/26/2022)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 
 

 

An important word about the total number of listings and what is displayed here

 

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Santa Teresa real estate market

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose - the proximity of parks will impact the Santa Teresa real estate market for that neighborhood

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market? The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable, offering lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time making the area more desirable. These positives appear to be helping that district hold its value well. Here are a few details from the latest monthly market update for Santa Teresa single family homes (read the full analysis below):

  • The median and average sales prices continued to dropped below last month, and finally fell behind last year.
  • Available inventory shrank over the last month with just 21 active listings at the end of August.
  • Closed sales remained nearly the same month-over-month, but were less than half compared to the year before.
  • Days on the market sped up, averaging just under a month at 23 days.
  • The sale to list price ratio was fairly stable after a major drop between June and July, averaging 99.5% of asking in August. That number has fallen 9.6% below last year.
  • In general we see slight cooling across many of the data points, but it is not a buyer’s market by a long stretch.

Santa Teresa (our MLS Area 2)  includes a small bit of the 95123 zip code, which is more expensive, but most of that zip code is Blossom Valley, so we will omit it. The 95138 zip code is about half Santa Teresa and half Evergreen (more expensive area), so take those numbers with a big grain of salt. I find the 95119 zip code to be most helpful, but even then, the school district is divided between Oak Grove and Morgan Hill.

Weekly update from Altos Research with a “market profile” of San Jose’s Santa Teresa area, zip code 95119 for single family homes / houses:

When there’s not enough data, the fields will be blank.

 

Santa Teresa of San Jose 95119 Real-Time Market Profile

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City of Santa Clara real estate market

Santa Clara real estate market - The Santa Clara Women's Club http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The Santa Clara Women’s Club (old adobe house)
http://www.santaclarawomansclub.org/

The real estate market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one which continues to be impacted low inventory and heightened demand. Over the last few months, the market here has seen significant cooling. However August shows the market picking up again.

  • The Agust sale to list price ratio dipped below the month before, but remains hot at 101.6% of asking, and is distinctly cooler than last year (-7.6%).
  • Inventory shrank to just 25 active listings, with increases in closed and pending sales for the single family housing market.
  • The average days of inventory (or market absorption) was 18, and the days on market were also just 18, so quick turnover with a little slowing.

Prices in Santa Clara rose astronomically over the last year. I grew up in that city and was amazed to see that the average and median sales price there had been hovering around $2 million last spring! This summer it’s finally coming down, although still a little above the price range we saw last year.

The Real Estate Market for the City of Santa Clara

Below there are charts for the market activity over the last few months for single family homes in Santa Clara. Market activity has been high for months, but finally began to cool down this summer. Low inventory across the valley means there is still a greater demand to fill than properties available. Further down in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.

First, a market profile, automatically updated weekly, for the city of Santa Clara (these reports are available by zip code, too, and for condos/townhomes as well as single family dwellings). Check out the weekly Altos report HERE and click on subscribe to get weekly updates on all of Santa Clara or any particular zip code. (Scroll to the bottom and check out the profile of houses across 4 pricing quartiles – super interesting.)

 

Santa Clara Real-Time Market Profile

According to Altos, it’s a strong seller’s market that’s showing mild recovery after a recent dip in market action, low median days on market, and falling inventory.

Data from my Real Estate Report

Next, stats at a glance for the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes.

The year started out hot after years with minimal inventory, but the spring market began to cool down following the invasion of Ukraine and rapidly rising mortgage rates set to combat inflation. That pent-up demand is still around, however buyers have become more choosy since feeling the impact of changes towards stocks and mortgage rates.

Have a look at the market by the numbers below, or visit my RE Report page for Santa Clara stats here.

 

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,707,500 (+4.8%) $1,630,000 $1,560,000 (+9.5%)
Average Price $1,735,120 (+8.7%) $1,596,060 $1,659,910 (+4.5%)
No. of Sales 42 (+35.5%) 31 57 (-26.3%)
Pending 68 (+13.3%) 60 67 (+1.5%)
Active 25 (-40.5%) 42 27 (-7.4%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.6% (-1.4%) 103.1% 110.0% (-7.6%)
Days on Market 18 (+5.5%) 17 10 (+74.4%)
Days of Inventory 18 (-56.1%) 41 14 (+25.7%)

 

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Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics

Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics on Mary Pope-Handy's Valley of Heart's Delight blogThe Mountain View CA real estate market was stronger than most of the valley in August, especially for single family homes.

Quick summary on the realty market in Mountain View, CA

  • Prices are up month-over-month and also year-over-year again
  • Properties are selling quickly with 19 days on the market, however, this is up from last month’s 18 days on the market.
  • The sales to list price ratio fell to 101.1%, down from 102.8% in July, 105.9% in June and from 109.1 a year ago.

The stock market has been up and down and interest rates appear to be ready to rise again, but many employers are asking their workers to return to the office. That is likely having a positive impact for Mountain View home sellers.

Overview of the city of Mountain View real estate market for houses:

First let’s have a look at the Real Estate Report with sales data taken directly from the MLS for residential sales.

Mountain View CA real estate market trends at a glance

Here’s the monthly housing chart from the RE Report

 

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,850,000 (+14.0%) $2,500,000 $2,729,000 (+4.4%)
Average Price $2,941,590 (+11.4%) $2,641,700 $2,640,200 (+11.4%)
No. of Sales 17 (-32.0%) 25 31 (-45.2%)
Pending 51 (+18.6%) 43 34 (+50.0%)
Active 18 (-30.8%) 26 20 (-10.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.1% (-1.7%) 102.8% 109.1% (-7.4%)
Days on Market 19 (+6.0%) 18 13 (+47.6%)
Days of Inventory 32 (+1.8%) 31 19 (+64.1%)

 

 

Mountain View CA real estate market trends and data by neighborhood or district

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The Evergreen area of San Jose

Evergreen area of San Jose (Silicon Valley)San Jose’s Evergreen district is in a strong seller’s market with that’s cooled significantly from last spring. This article will examine the data from sales and active listings in this residential real estate market with live and monthly updates. Here are a few points from the latest Evergreen single family housing market update, provided in more detail below:

  • August sales took longer to sell at an average of 28 days on market.
  • The sales to list price ratio finally rose month-over-month to 99.5% after 3 months of almost free fall. It plunged from 112.4% of asking in May to 103.6% in June and down to 98.4% in July.
  • Sales prices have fallen sharply below last year.

The Evergreen area of San Jose includes many newer homes and communities. It is a desirable Silicon Valley community as Evergreen is scenic and most of the district enjoys highly regarded schools, particularly at the elementary and middle school levels.

Evergreen Real Estate Market Report: Single Family Homes

The Re Report considers all of the Evergreen district together. Please find the full report on my Real Estate Report for the Evergreen area of San Jose. Further down, you’ll see live charts with more zip code specific details.

The market is definitely cooling down. Inventory has fallen sharply month-over-month, but almost doubled from last year. Pending and closed sales remain surprisingly stable. Prices are down significantly since last year, and the sales to list price ratio has risen month-over-month, but remains just under 100% for the second month in a row after hitting the lowest percentage we’ve seen in over decade. Homes are selling quickly in under a month and it is still a seller’s market despite significant cooling.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Aug 2022 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,472,500 (+0.9%) $1,460,000 $1,627,500 (-9.5%)
Average Price $1,555,530 (-5.4%) $1,644,650 $1,896,300 (-18.0%)
No. of Sales 30 (0.0%) 30 48 (-37.5%)
Pending 65 (0.0%) 65 63 (+3.2%)
Active 57 (-18.6%) 70 29 (+96.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.5% (+1.1%) 98.4% 108.7% (-8.4%)
Days on Market 28 (+46.7%) 19 12 (+124.8%)
Days of Inventory 57 (-18.6%) 70 18 (+214.5%)

 

Altos Research: Evergreen real estate market for single family homes or houses by zip code

95148

Evergreen of San Jose 95148 Real-Time Market Profile

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Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends

Leo or Leona - the mascot of Los Gatos

The Los Gatos real estate market has some mixed data points and it’s an odd time. Inventory has shrunk, sales have increased, but sales are coming it at lower prices. It’s a peculiar combination of a seller’s market but with falling prices. Los Gatos home prices are generally down 15-20% from the peak a few months ago. 

Realistic sellers are pricing their homes low and selling fast. Others are languishing. It’s a tale of two (or more) Los Gatos real estate markets. If a listing is overpriced, it simply won’t get offers close to list price.

As of today, September 8, some info on single family homes in LG 95030 & 95032:

    • 44  single family homes are on the market in “Active” status – last month at this time it was 48 (of those, 4 are listed as “agent only, show”, and 3 are “agent only, do not show”). The agent only listings means that they are not syndicated to other websites, meaning 7 of the homes for sale will not be seen on places like Realtor.com, Zillow, or Redfin.
    • 7 houses are under contract but there are contingencies of some kind in place (could be loan, appraisal, property inspection, buyer to sell current home, seller to find a replacement home) – so those sales may not go through. It was 4 a month ago.
    • 20  houses are sale pending, no contingencies (this is a small number compared to the active listings) – it was 23 last month at my last update for this post
    • 29 houses have closed escrow in the last month, up from 19 last month. The trend had been toward a drop in sales, so this is a reversal.
    • The average sale price to list price ratio for these 29 houses was 97% (down from 100% for my August update) – this figure has been falling consistently

 

Los Gatos real estate market trends: multi year stats

Here is some multiple year over year Los Gatos real estate market data that I pulled directly from the MLS today:

Inventory

Inventory has fallen, making it a harder market for home buyers. Inventory in August is the lowest we’ve seen in recent history.

 

Los Gatos 95030 and 95032 Inventory

 

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Updating the Campbell Real Estate Market

Tudor style house on graphic that says - How's the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a strong seller’s market that was blazing hot earlier this year – but there’s been a good deal of cooling lately! This article, updated monthly, offers data and analysis on the residential real estate market within this popular Silicon Valley community. Here are a few details from the latest update on Campbell’s single family housing market:

  • The average sales to list price ratio for homes sold last month rose to 101.9% of asking. This 2.5% increase follows a crash in July leading to the lowest percentage seen since January 2020. Homes are selling less over asking (and sometimes under asking) and with fewer offers than last spring.
  • Prices are a little below last month and last year.
  • Average turnover raced to 13 days on market.
  • Data shows that August saw a drop in active inventory, with an increase in closed and pending sales.

The market in this popular west valley city appears to have warmed up a little, although it remains significantly cooler than it was earlier this year.

The Campbell, CA Real Estate Market

It’s hard to predict what’s coming next, especially since Silicon Valley real estate is connected to the global economy and many buyers rely on stocks to finance their purchase. On top of that, we’re emerging from an already atypical couple of years!

The market has not followed typical seasonal trends since before spring 2020, although we’re starting to see a bit more balance start to return in late spring of 2022. The charts below certainly show the impact of the pandemic on the real estate market, but we won’t see the full picture until it’s behind us. Read more about how the Coronavirus impacted real estate sales on my blog post about the topic.

If you’re selling a well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced house, you’ll likely see multiple offers on your home for sale. If it’s in an especially sought-after area and has good bones and a nice finish, the number of offers can create a bidding war. Competition is high enough that it’s pushing many buyers to make offers without any contingencies and above list price. For hot homes, desparate and worn out buyers sometimes spike prices well above list price just to get their foot in the door! However we’re also starting to see more worn out and priced-out buyers begin to exit the market and properties recieving fewer offers, or more contingent offers being accepted.

The market has been overdue for a correction and we’re beginning to see where this transitioning market might take us. Don’t expect a balanced market any time soon – California still has a housing shortage and buyers are still clamoring to get their foot in the door!

Here’s a quick view of the Campbell real estate market stats from Altos Research, using list prices (not sales price) which updates automatically about once per week:

Campbell Altos Real-Time Market Profile

The Altos chart is showing Campbell, CA single family homes in a strong seller’s market with a slight increase in market action following a dip. Inventory is shrinking dramatically again, but days on market are on the rise.

And now –  here are some quick stats, pulled from the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) through the RE Report:

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