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Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicHow’s Cambrian Park condo & townhouse market? Normally we answer this question in brief with regular monthly updates over on the Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update. However with fantastic neighborhoods like Montanas de Los Gatos, Cambrian condos are not to be missed! So today we’ll take a closer look at the condominium and townhome market in this popular San Jose district!

Before we dive in, let’s see what’s selling now in the Cambrian Park condo & townhouse  segment of the market.

Just now (as of April 15, 2021), I looked into the MLS to see the condo and townhome sales in Cambrian over the last 30 days. Out of 11 sales, 9 were listed as condos and 2 were listed as townhomes (all were held in in condo ownership). Condos sold between $430,000 – $1,005,000 and townhome sales closed between $855,000 – $980,000. Most sold in under 2 weeks and over list price, although the 3 properties that took longer than 2 weeks to sell closed under list price. Properties ranged from a 1 bed 1 bath to a 3 bed 2.5 bath, although most were 2 bed 1 bath units. The majority were built in the 1970s – 1980s, although the youngest property was built in 2007.

Now let’s have a look at some of the numbers from my Real Estate Report:

Real Estate Report: Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse Market – San Jose

It’s a hot spring market for the Cambrian condo market!

Trends At a Glance Mar 2021 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $699,500 (-13.6%) $810,000 $730,000 (-4.2%)
Average Price $727,350 (-9.0%) $799,333 $756,377 (-3.8%)
No. of Sales 10 (+11.1%) 9 11 (-9.1%)
Pending 14 (+40.0%) 10 (+55.6%)
Active 11 (+57.1%) 7 11 (0.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.0% (-0.5%) 102.5% 103.1% (-1.0%)
Days on Market 24 (+242.9%) 7 12 (+94.1%)
Days of Inventory 33 (+57.1%) 21 30 (+10.0%)

 

March of 2020 had a lot of changes. But these changes don’t show up very obviously in the sales and listing data until April 2020 (let’s just say real estate sales, especially in a seller’s market, have a lot of inertia – you can’t easily stop them once they’re in motion!). So comparing March 2021 data with March 2020, we can see two markets with low inventory compared to sales, quick turnover, and bids accepted over list price. This year also had plenty more pending sales, and slightly cooler sales to list price ratio and days on market. Compared to February 2021, this March experienced growing activity with higher sales, pending sales, and active inventory. Despite this growing activity and a clear seller’s market, prices are clearly lower than they have been.

Let’s have a look at the same chart from this time last year:

 

Trends At a Glance Mar 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $730,000 (-10.7%) $817,561 $762,500 (-4.3%)
Average Price $756,377 (-11.3%) $852,312 $763,800 (-1.0%)
No. of Sales 11 (+10.0%) 10 10 (+10.0%)
Pending (-30.8%) 13 11 (-18.2%)
Active 11 (+120.0%) 5 18 (-38.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.1% (+0.6%) 102.5% 99.6% (+3.5%)
Days on Market 12 (-50.5%) 25 23 (-45.5%)
Days of Inventory 30 (+114.3%) 14 54 (-44.4%)

 

In this chart we can also see March 2019 numbers, which follow similar trends for sales and sales pending with significantly more inventory. Prices are also the highest out of all three years in 2019 despite having the lowest sales to list price ratio. There’s a small enough pool for data here that one or two unusual sales can cause significant swings in the chart, so take this with a grain of salt. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a condo or townhome in Cambrian Park it’s important to price it for today’s market and to check the listings for each and every sale with similar features, size, amenities to get a sense of the property’s particular subset of the market.

For a bit of fun, let’s have a look at a chart from all the way back at the start of 2010:

Trends At a Glance Jan 2010 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $263,500 $308,500 (-14.6%) $344,450 (-23.5%)
Average Price $281,750 $316,958 (-11.1%) $350,612 (-19.6%)
No. of Sales 4 12 (-66.7%) (-50.0%)
Pending Properties 21 20 (+5.0%) (+133.3%)
Active 19 12 (+58.3%) 50 (-62.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.3% 99.3% (+1.0%) 96.3% (+4.2%)
Days on Market 17 85 (-79.8%) 55 (-68.6%)

 

Prices were a little different then! And here are my remarks from when I originally published this chart:

As you can see, inventory is way down year over year – it’s down by 2/3!  The market is largely about supply & demand.  Right now, home buyers know that interest rates are poised to rise (one half to one full percent) sometime this year, so many are finally jumping off the fence and wishing they’d done this a year ago.

Sellers, meanwhile, are not happy about the new, low prices so are holding off on selling.  Hence, we are experiencing a shortage of supply.

It’s hard to imagine 50 properties for sale, as shown in the January 2009 data, when we’ve been in the teens for so long now! But like 2010, in 2021 many buyers are wishing they’d bought sooner with a backlog of demand and a dearth of inventory creating an extremely competitive market for buyers.

 

Altos Research Live Charts

These graphs are live, updating automatically once or twice every week, with active inventory from MLS listings.

Most of Cambrian Park falls under the 95124 zip code.  If we look at the current inventory of listed homes for sale, we can break it down by quartile care of Altos Research (another subscription I have):

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

In the April 12, 2021 update, inventory is extremely low from a winter dip. Most areas have seen some minor growth in spring, but right now inventory is so low that the chart is actually measuring the number of homes in fractions! and all but the lowest priced homes are under 1.5!

How is pricing looking?:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

Overall prices have been on the rise through winter and into spring in 2021. The highest priced homes saw a slight dip early in the year, and the lower two tiers have seen some dips in spring, but the upper price (the second tier) properties just keep climbing.

Most confusing of all is what’s happening among the “days on market”:

 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

 

All quadrants usually follow similar trends in the condo and townhome markets, but they are unusually close right now. The two middle tiers have already swapped places a few times in 2021 for the fastest tier. All areas are currently (as of April 12, 2021) taking between 20 – 30 days to sell which is extremely quick.

Looking across all three charts, it appears that the lowest priced condos may be in a slightly (very slightly) cooler market than the rest. They have the longest days on market, the most inventory, and are not showing the same increases in pricing as most other quadrants of the market. But these are very subtle differences. Overall, the whole market is in an active seller’s market!

 

Cambrian includes a few different schools districts and 3 zip codes, so what is happening in one area or price point may not be true in another. For specific information relating to your home or needs, please contact me!

Want to keep reading? Check out some of these related articles:

Cambrian & Cambrian Park Neighborhoods: How to Choose Where to Live?

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update