The Campbell real estate market appears to be “past the bottom”, as is the case with much of the Silicon Valley housing market. In some parts of San Jose, “the bottom” was in February or March of this year. Campbell may have hit that point sooner – but in any event it is now heading back toward a balanced market (30 is the balance point for this formula). (Images and charts from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and permission to use these, as well as the RE Report, another subscription service of mine. Altos uses list prices, the RE Report uses sold data as well as list prices.)
Let’s look at the data for October in Campbell – actives, pendings, and closeds (care of the RE Report).
| Trends At a Glance | Oct 2009 | Previous Month | Year-over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $671,500 | $697,500 (-3.7%) | $730,000 (-8.0%) |
| Average Price | $717,461 | $760,850 (-5.7%) | $783,941 (-8.5%) |
| No. of Sales | 28 | 20 (+40.0%) | 17 (+64.7%) |
| Pending Properties | 42 | 39 (+7.7%) | 18 (+133.3%) |
| Active | 55 | 68 (-19.1%) | 105 (-47.6%) |
| Sale vs. List Price | 96.1% | 98.6% (-2.5%) | 96.1% (0.0%) |
| Days on Market | 36 | 42 (-14.0%) | 77 (-53.5%) |
While in many parts of the greater San Jose area the Days on Market (DOM) are lengthening, they are shortening in Campbell! Sales are up, but prices are still declining a bit (in several areas of Santa Clara County, prices are again inching up – this tends to happen in less expensive areas). Pending sales are up and inventory is down. So there are some mixed indicators but Campbell appears to be at or near “the bottom”.
The real estate market in Campbell, like in all of Santa Clara County, varies from one price point (and specific location) to the next. Have a look at the recent numbers, broken down into quartile:
Please note in the above image what a big difference there is between the top quartile and the other three price points. Interestingly, the “hottest” market of the three is the second from the top – a good sized (but not too small) home of about 1800 square feet is the part of the housing market most likely to sell in Campbell right now. Here are those “days on market” numbers in a graph, blended into rolling averages (7 and 90 days).
Curious that the four quartiles were behaving fairly similarly in terms of the days on market (DOM) until 2009.
What about home values? It looks as though, from the following graph, list prices hit bottom and coasted there for a bit earlier this year prior to having a bit of a rally – and then fell again recently. This could be due to the time of year – or not. We’ll really only know when we get through the winter and look backwards to see where we’ve been. “Hindsight is 20/20” applies here, too.
Now I’ll insert some “live” charts that will stay current even into the future.
If we look at the median list price of Campbell, CA, single family homes for sale, with all prices combined (not separated by quartile), it really looks rather bleak:
Separate it out by price quartile, and it’s less alarming (if no less true):
Let’s view them individually, then. First, the most affordable, entry level houses for sales in Campbell, California:
These (above) took a big hit, but then “skated along the bottom” for awhile.
The lower middle quartile has had a less pleasant ride:
The upper middle’s list prices have fallen more constantly – no respite, no plateau, anytime recently:
And the most expensive Campbell homes for sale experienced a good rally in summer before falling again.
A longer view of history, extending back to 2005, shows us that the top tier of homes for sale in Cambpell tends to have the most erratic path – the least predictable, the most tumultuous.
If you are a Campbell homeowner, take heart – many of the indicators point to this being close to the bottom of the market. If you are a home buyer, interested in purchasing a house in Campbell, now is a fantastic opportunity. Prices have “rolled back” about six years in many segments of this market.
For more information, please visit the Campbell pages on my RE Report for single family homes and also for condos and townhomes. Or contact me for a confidential, no-obligation consulation on your real estate wants and needs here in Silicon Valley.
