The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a hot seller’s market, keeping active into winter with slight seasonal cooling. Demand may have shrunk between rising rates and inflation, but inventory remains historically low so it’s still far from balanced!

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The January 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes rose to 104.7% of asking, that’s +1.6% from last month per the RE Report and +6.1% from this time 2023, following the bottom of the market’s decline. For the MLS stats we pulled today, however, it shows 104.4% average, up from 102.8% (+1.6%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, and warming up into the new year.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 8% – 19%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose around 1% – 5%.
  • The time on market slowed slightly month-over-month to a 22 day average (RE Report). That’s still quick turnover averaging well below a month, indicating a clear seller’s market.

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While prices and overbids have fallen since the peak, in some ways 2023 was even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. And it doesn’t look like inventory will really pick up any time soon, either.

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate to hold on to at their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the second lowest January inventory over more than a decade (only January 2022 was lower)! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,600,000 (+4.9%)$1,525,000$1,347,500 (+18.7%)
Average Price$1,693,940 (+1.0%)$1,677,520$1,563,350 (+8.4%)
No. of Sales157 (-25.2%)210128 (+22.7%)
Pending197 (+20.1%)164152 (+29.6%)
Active120 (+25.0%)96250 (-52.0%)
Sale vs. List Price104.7% (+1.6%)103.1%98.7% (+6.1%)
Days on Market22 (+14.1%)1931 (-28.7%)
Days of Inventory23 (+67.2%)1459 (-60.9%)

 

Available inventory is less than half of was at this time last year, while pending and closed sales have risen above 2023 numbers. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market launching out of a slightly cooler December and into the new year. Winter tends to be the best time for buyers to snag a “deal”, however we’re beginning to leave the winter trends behind and spring is fast approaching! Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics

Mountain View real estate market trends - by Mary Pope-Handy and Clair Handy - blue house with wordsThe Mountain View CA real estate market was a strong market and continued heating up, even breaking some recent records!

Quick summary on the realty market in Mountain View, CA

  • The average sale price for houses is up month over month and year-over-year.
  • The median sale price is also up for both.
  • Days on market grew from 15 to 28, but still in “hot market” territory.
  • The sales to list price ratio slipped but remains well over 100%

Mountain View CA real estate market trends at a glance

First let’s have a look at the Real Estate Report for residential sales data.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,325,000 (+13.4%)$2,050,000$1,980,000 (+17.4%)
Average Price$2,482,800 (+14.5%)$2,167,460$2,289,530 (+8.4%)
No. of Sales10 (-23.1%)13(+11.1%)
Pending(-42.9%)14(+60.0%)
Active(+28.6%)714 (-35.7%)
Sale vs. List Price103.3% (-2.4%)105.8%100.7% (+2.6%)
Days on Market28 (+87.2%)1524 (+15.7%)
Days of Inventory27 (+67.1%)1647 (-42.1%)

 

Mountain View CA real estate market trends and data by neighborhood or district

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Sunnyvale real estate market trends & statistics

The Sunnyvale real estate market, remains a hot seller’s market.

Sunnyvale real estate market  trends and stats at a glance

Here is a quick rundown of the trends at a glance for the Sunnyvale real estate market, with more in the charts below:

  • The average sale price of Sunnyvale homes rose 16% from a year earlier, and up 8.5% compared to December.
  • The median sale price is up both monthly and annually.
  • Inventory rose tremendously compared to December, but it’s down compared to the year before.
  • Pending sales are up from last year from the month before.
  • The sale to list price climbed to 107.7, amazingly high for January.

PLEASE visit our ReReport page for data here, throughout Santa Clara County, and also for San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties.

(If you’re viewing this on a mobile phone, swipe horizontally to see the full chart if it goes off the screen.)

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,368,000 (+16.7%)$2,029,500$2,130,000 (+11.2%)
Average Price$2,309,890 (+8.5%)$2,128,840$1,990,860 (+16.0%)
No. of Sales19 (-9.5%)2114 (+35.7%)
Pending20 (+11.1%)1814 (+42.9%)
Active17 (+183.3%)630 (-43.3%)
Sale vs. List Price107.7% (+1.0%)106.6%98.6% (+9.2%)
Days on Market13 (-34.2%)2039 (-66.8%)
Days of Inventory27 (+213.2%)964 (-58.2%)

 

You may also want to see how Sunnyvale stacks up to other communities in Santa Clara County. If so, click to see the PDF Real Estate Report for Santa Clara County, updated monthly.

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Cupertino Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics

Cupertino real estate market will be more expensive for view homes in nearly all cases -image taken from Ridge VineyardsHow’s the Cupertino real estate market? In December and January both, sales were down month over month, which is not atypical for this time of year. Home buyers getting into contract in November or December typically get the best prices of the year with the least competition (and often lowest interest rates, too, as that is also a supply and demand issue).

We are seeing and hearing of multiple offers and massive overbids in many parts of the valley right now. How about Cupertino? A quick look just now (Feb 14) at the pending sales (no contingencies) finds:

  • 14 houses / single family homes sale pending
  • Average days on market = 13 (super fast)
  • 10 of the 13 homes sold in 9 days or less (red hot)
  • list prices range from about $2.2 mil to about $3.9 million with an average list price of about $3 million (clearly not just entry level homes are selling well)

The pending sales are our window into the near future and from these we can see a market which is heating up as compared to the closed sales in the table below from the RE Report. Buyers, buckle up – it is a seller’s market and it’s deepening in that direction!

Cupertino Real Estate market – Closed Sales and Trends at a Glance

Here are the most recent real estate statistics, via our Cupertino Real Estate Report. The market is HOT! With just 10 sales in January, the prices appear to be lower than in December, but these aren’t enough data points to be sure.

(If you’re viewing the chart below on a mobile device, please swipe horizontally to see all columns.)

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,465,000 (-8.7%)$2,700,000$2,475,000 (-0.4%)
Average Price$2,580,400 (-9.0%)$2,835,390$2,376,670 (+8.6%)
No. of Sales10 (-33.3%)15(+66.7%)
Pending(0.0%)9(+80.0%)
Active15 (+114.3%)7(+87.5%)
Sale vs. List Price96.6% (-4.0%)100.6%99.4% (-2.9%)
Days on Market20 (-52.2%)4213 (+62.4%)
Days of Inventory45 (+221.4%)1440 (+12.5%)

 

 

Cupertino real estate market via the Altos Research weekly charts (they use LIST prices, not sale prices):

 

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The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian Park real estate market remains a strong seller’s market.

For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

QUICK NOTE: Just now I looked at the pending sales online. If we consider only resale, not the homes at Cully Place, there are 25 houses which are pending (no contingencies) and the average days on market for them is a mere 7. The largest days on market is 15! This is an indicator that the market is white hot – pending sales are an early warning to buyers taking their time that conditions are swinging more deeply into the sellers’ favor.

This is very much what Clair and I are seeing across the valley. We’ve learned of many homes that sold within a week in which there were multiple offers, sometimes more than 10, with the resulting sale 15 – 20% over list price! It’s not limited to one area or another but truly seems to be all over, particularly for houses under $ 2million.

The chart below is from the RE Report. Home prices are up both monthly and annually by a solid amount. The sale to list price ratio rose again. It remains a strong seller’s market in Cambrian Park with just 12 days of inventory and 106.6% sale price to list price ratio.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,755,000 (+0.4%)$1,747,780$1,576,500 (+11.3%)
Average Price$2,032,290 (+6.8%)$1,902,930$1,552,860 (+30.9%)
No. of Sales17 (-45.2%)3114 (+21.4%)
Pending32 (+45.5%)2220 (+60.0%)
Active(+16.7%)621 (-66.7%)
Sale vs. List Price106.6% (+2.0%)104.5%100.0% (+6.6%)
Days on Market15 (+22.8%)1323 (-32.1%)
Days of Inventory12 (+112.7%)645 (-72.5%)

 

 

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Willow Glen real estate market in San Jose

Willow Glen real estate market is a strong seller's market. This Willow Glen sign is from the downtown business district.The Willow Glen real estate market in San Jose remains a strong seller’s market.

  • Average home prices are up month over month by 808% and down year over year by 9.1%.
  • Homes are selling in 18 days on average – still hot. This is quite fast for January.
  • The sale to list price rose to 101.9% in January – the market is heating up!

The best priced homes with no location or condition issues continue to sell quickly and with multiple offers and overbids.

Willow Glen Real Estate Market Trends: Single Family Homes

Willow Glen home prices area up monthly, but the average sale price slipped annually. The sale to list price ratio is rising, though, and the market is hot for homes priced aggressively, with good locations, and good (remodeled) condition.

Click for the complete Willow Glen real estate report:

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,226,250 (+24.7%)$1,785,000$2,105,000 (+5.8%)
Average Price$2,156,880 (+8.8%)$1,982,520$2,373,620 (-9.1%)
No. of Sales20 (-37.5%)3212 (+66.7%)
Pending20 (0.0%)2019 (+5.3%)
Active17 (+41.7%)1225 (-32.0%)
Sale vs. List Price101.9% (+3.8%)98.2%98.0% (+4.1%)
Days on Market18 (-29.5%)2536 (-51.1%)
Days of Inventory26 (+126.7%)1163 (-59.2%)

 

And the month before:

 

Trends At a GlanceDec 2023Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,785,000 (-3.8%)$1,855,000$1,600,000 (+11.6%)
Average Price$1,982,520 (+3.7%)$1,912,400$1,726,500 (+14.8%)
No. of Sales32 (-11.1%)3635 (-8.6%)
Pending20 (-28.6%)2812 (+66.7%)
Active12 (-63.6%)3333 (-63.6%)
Sale vs. List Price98.2% (-3.7%)102.0%97.1% (+1.2%)
Days on Market25 (+49.6%)1733 (-24.8%)
Days of Inventory11 (-57.7%)2728 (-60.2%)

 

 

Below please find a market profile and then a couple of charts for the Willow Glen real estate market for houses and duet homes (attached single family homes – not duplexes), care of Altos Research, to which I have a subscription. Altos uses list prices, not sold prices. The data is automatically updated each week, so please bookmark this post and come back often!


Data from Altos Research for Willow Glen Real Estate Market Trends – San Jose 95125

In the latest update, Altos says single family homes are in a strong seller’s market with rising market action, and a decrease in much needed, perpetually low inventory. As of today, 35% have taken price reductions.

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Updating the Campbell Real Estate Market

Tudor style house on graphic that says - How's the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a strong seller’s market that continues to outstrip this time last year. This article, updated monthly, offers data and analysis on the residential real estate market within this popular Silicon Valley community. Here are a few details from the latest update on Campbell’s single family housing market:

  • Inventory has grown since the new year with 8 active listings at the end of January, still just a drop in the bucket! Smaller pools of data can cause more dramatic swings in these statistics, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.
  • The average sales to list price ratio for homes sold last month rose to 103.6% of asking – that’s red hot, and completely overtakes this time last year’s numbers.
  • Average and median sales prices are up +1.0% and +7.4% from the last month respectively, and up +1.5% and +19.5% from last year.
  • Average time on market slowed to 41 days while market absorption lagged to 30 days.
  • Closed and pending sales slipped month-over-month, though both have risen above last year despite lower available inventory.

The market in this popular west valley city is red hot overall!

The Campbell, CA Real Estate Market

It’s hard to predict what’s coming next, especially since Silicon Valley real estate is connected to the global economy and many buyers rely on stocks and mortgage loans to finance their purchase. On top of that, we’re emerging from an already wild few years!

If you’re selling a well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced house, you’ll likely see multiple offers on your home for sale. We’ve been seeing more bidding wars, but not with overbids quite as high as last spring. Competition for homes has undoubtebly waned from it’s peak as buyers financial power shrank with rising interest rates. That said, with even fewer homes being listed this year there’s still far more demand than there is inventory, especially for a move-in ready home!

Desperate and worn out buyers want to get their foot in the door before they are priced out of the market altogether by either climbing interest rates or rising home prices.

Don’t expect a balanced market any time soon – the Bay Area still has a severe housing shortage and buyers are clamoring to get property!

Here’s a quick view of the Campbell real estate market stats from Altos Research, using list prices (not sales price) which updates automatically about once per week:

 

Campbell Altos Real-Time Market Profile

The Altos chart is showing Campbell, CA single family homes in a strong seller’s market with a recent decline in market action paired with continually low inventory. Available listings remain well below typical, and these few homes continue to sell quickly.

And now –  here are some quick stats, pulled from the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) through the RE Report:

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Milpitas real estate market

Milpitas Real Estate MarketThe Milpitas real estate market has shown slight seasonal cooling and overall remains a strong seller’s market.

Here are a few points from the latest update to the Milpitas single family homes market, with more data and analysis in the article below:

  • Only 8 single family homes closed in January, so take all sales data with a grain of salt!! Major swings are not likely to be indicative of overall market trends, but of the few individual homes sold that month.
  • Compared to this time last year homes sold 3.2% higher and over asking, averaging 102.9% in January.
  • The average single family home price in January was $1,483,760 (-4.1% from the month before, and up +11.5% from a year ago). 
  • The median sale price followed similar trends at $1,435,000 (-7.4% from the month before, and up +21.1% from last year)
  • Listings averaged 24 days on market, slower than the month before and slower than this time last year.
  • Closed sales rose a hair from the month prior, inventory more than doubled, and pending sales fell by nearly half. Compared to this time last year closed sales are even, pending sales have slipped a hair, and available inventory continues to fall short.

Demand remains high in Milpitas with softer early-winter activity. Unless inventory grows dramatically buyers will continue to struggle with the severe housing shortage and the market will remain red hot for sellers.

The Milpitas Real Estate Market

Milpitas is perpetually attractive for home buyers as the location is convenient and offers good schools. Many areas are close to the hills and enjoy scenic views, too.

So let’s look at some data. First up, the Altos charts using list price and active listings. It is updated automatically on a weekly basis, so check back often:

Altos Real-Time Market Profile, Milpitas

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Cambrian Park: Good Schools, Low Crime, Close to Los Gatos and Campbell

Cambrian Park, or more broadly, Cambrian, is a west San Jose neighborhood or district and is one of the high-value areas in Silicon Valley. The schools are good, the crime is low, and the commute is not too bad.

Cambrian Park Plaza signFor people relocating to Santa Clara County, this is a place to know about since quality education and affordability are often high priorities! Most Silicon Valley home buyers would say that Cambrian Park real estate offers a very good value.

What’s the compromise for the more reasonable prices of homes for sale? Well, Cambrian doesn’t have an interesting, upscale downtown area like Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, or Willow Glen. (It may, when the Cambrian Park Plaza redevelopment takes place.)

But it does have tons of shopping & restaurants and even a Farmer’s Market. It also enjoys a top notch hospital (Good Samaritan) and plenty of parks as well as a fantastic rec center with a large park adjacent to it, the Camden Community Center, which has loads of programs (including an after school program for youth), classes, and a fabulous pool.

Altogether, there are about 75,000 to 80,000 residents in Cambrian, spread throughout part of two zip codes, part of 95124 and some of 95118.

If there is a “central Cambrian Park”, it would have to be near the original Cambrian Park Shopping Center, which was the first actual mall in San Jose! That area is sometimes known as Cambrian Village.  People sometimes use the three names interchangeably: Cambrian, Cambrian Park, Cambrian Village.

 

Where is Cambrian Park? Map of approximate Cambrian Boundaries:

 


View Cambrian Area of San Jose in a larger map

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Expired, Canceled, Withdrawn Listings: What Happens If You Take Your Home off the Market?

Expired, canceled, and withdrawn listings are all frustrating situations for both home sellers and the Realtors they worked with. After considerable effort, and likely also significant cost. the property failed to sell (or it went pending, fell through, but did not re-sell). What happens next?

3 Minute Video Overview

 

What is the difference between expired, canceled and withdrawn listings?

Let us begin by discussing the difference between canceled, expired, and withdrawn listings and how each impacts your vulnerability to being swamped with messages from real estate agents.

On the multiple listing service, these are very distinct statuses.

MLS status for listings

  1. A withdrawn listing means that the property is still listed for sale with a real estate agent or broker but is no longer listed on the multiple listing service (MLS).  It’s still a valid listing and other agents should not approach you about working with them since you are still in a contract to sell your home with your current agent.
  2. An expired listing means that the contract for your listing has come to an end and the listing is no longer in place.  Other agents may approach you since there is no valid listing in place.
  3. A canceled listing is one in which the seller and agent or broker agree to terminate the listing. Since the listing has ended, other agents are free to contact you.

In a nutshell, if your Silicon Valley home’s listing becomes either canceled or expired, real estate sales people may contact you, but if it is merely withdrawn, they are not supposed to reach out to you because you still have a valid listing in place. (more…)