The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a hot seller’s market, keeping active into winter with slight seasonal cooling. Demand may have shrunk between rising rates and inflation, but inventory remains historically low so it’s still far from balanced!

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The January 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes rose to 104.7% of asking, that’s +1.6% from last month per the RE Report and +6.1% from this time 2023, following the bottom of the market’s decline. For the MLS stats we pulled today, however, it shows 104.4% average, up from 102.8% (+1.6%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, and warming up into the new year.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 8% – 19%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose around 1% – 5%.
  • The time on market slowed slightly month-over-month to a 22 day average (RE Report). That’s still quick turnover averaging well below a month, indicating a clear seller’s market.

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While prices and overbids have fallen since the peak, in some ways 2023 was even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. And it doesn’t look like inventory will really pick up any time soon, either.

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate to hold on to at their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the second lowest January inventory over more than a decade (only January 2022 was lower)! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,600,000 (+4.9%)$1,525,000$1,347,500 (+18.7%)
Average Price$1,693,940 (+1.0%)$1,677,520$1,563,350 (+8.4%)
No. of Sales157 (-25.2%)210128 (+22.7%)
Pending197 (+20.1%)164152 (+29.6%)
Active120 (+25.0%)96250 (-52.0%)
Sale vs. List Price104.7% (+1.6%)103.1%98.7% (+6.1%)
Days on Market22 (+14.1%)1931 (-28.7%)
Days of Inventory23 (+67.2%)1459 (-60.9%)

 

Available inventory is less than half of was at this time last year, while pending and closed sales have risen above 2023 numbers. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market launching out of a slightly cooler December and into the new year. Winter tends to be the best time for buyers to snag a “deal”, however we’re beginning to leave the winter trends behind and spring is fast approaching! Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics

Mountain View real estate market trends - by Mary Pope-Handy and Clair Handy - blue house with wordsThe Mountain View CA real estate market was a strong market and continued heating up, even breaking some recent records!

Quick summary on the realty market in Mountain View, CA

  • The average sale price for houses is up month over month and year-over-year.
  • The median sale price is also up for both.
  • Days on market grew from 15 to 28, but still in “hot market” territory.
  • The sales to list price ratio slipped but remains well over 100%

Mountain View CA real estate market trends at a glance

First let’s have a look at the Real Estate Report for residential sales data.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,325,000 (+13.4%)$2,050,000$1,980,000 (+17.4%)
Average Price$2,482,800 (+14.5%)$2,167,460$2,289,530 (+8.4%)
No. of Sales10 (-23.1%)13(+11.1%)
Pending(-42.9%)14(+60.0%)
Active(+28.6%)714 (-35.7%)
Sale vs. List Price103.3% (-2.4%)105.8%100.7% (+2.6%)
Days on Market28 (+87.2%)1524 (+15.7%)
Days of Inventory27 (+67.1%)1647 (-42.1%)

 

Mountain View CA real estate market trends and data by neighborhood or district

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Los Altos: Beautiful Silicon Valley Suburb

Los Altos downtownLos Altos is a scenic town, semi-rural, conveniently located, with notably good schools (Los Altos or Cupertino schools). The charming old style downtown enjoys superior restaurants, shops, and is a pleasant place to stroll. The town enjoys a community college and a golf course. Its a great place for pedestrians and cyclists (lots of paths), and is a quick jaunt to both Palo Alto and Mountain View, both very popular peninsula destinations.

There’s a brief history of Los Altos on that city’s website that I found interesting. First, the land that started the community was originally 140 acres purchased from Sarah Winchester. Second, Foothill Expressway used to be a right of way for the Southern Pacific Railroad. The train line ceased operations in 1964, and the expressway was put in. Love local history from the Valley of Heart’s Delight? The Los Altos History Museum is a worthwhile destination.

The zip codes don’t stay within the city’s boundaries. Both 94022 and 94024 can be found in Los Altos and adjacent Los Altos Hills.

Los Altos Real Estate Market Conditions

Below please find first information from Altos Research, and then from the RE Report (we have subscriptions to both). Altos’ data is for the city and by zip codes. It uses list prices and its charts and reports are updated automatically each week. The RE Report uses data for each full month and provides it for the city as a whole and also by four distinct regions or neighborhoods. Both reports offer a subscription option if you click on the links.

The next 3 charts are from Altos Research and they are updated weekly, so check back often!  You can see the weekly report, with even more data, by visiting the link. Subscribe for Los Altos, for one of its zip codes, or anywhere else nearby by first entering the desired zip or city in the “Search Anywhere” button and then clicking on subscribe.

Whole town- both 94022 and 94024

 

 

94022

 

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The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The Monte Sereno real estate market is similar to Los Gatos, but distinct - Monte Sereno shares many features with Los Gatos but is a distinct cityHow is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 3,500 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. This article is updated monthly with new data and analysis, so scroll down to read the latest and check back regularly. Here are a few details from the latest market update:

  • With so few sales and listings, Monte Sereno real estate data can swing quite wildly in the charts below so take it with a grain of salt.
  • This city appears to be in a seller’s market with severely low inventory, just 4 available homes at the end of January. That’s slim pickings!
  • There were just 2 closed and 3 pending sales last month, which together are not far off from this time last year.

There are ALMOST no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno. As of Febuary 2024, the MLS showed just 6 sales in these two categories in total – and that’s going back to 1998! And one of those, at least, appears to actually be in Los Gatos. One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (an online pdf):  http://www.montesereno.org/DocumentCenter/Home/View/674

Because this is such a small city and there’s a tiny pool of data, please also have a look at the Los Gatos real estate market post on this site.

Below is a quick market profile for the Monte Sereno real estate market. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.

 

Monte Sereno Altos Real-Time Market Profile

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Sunnyvale real estate market trends & statistics

The Sunnyvale real estate market, remains a hot seller’s market.

Sunnyvale real estate market  trends and stats at a glance

Here is a quick rundown of the trends at a glance for the Sunnyvale real estate market, with more in the charts below:

  • The average sale price of Sunnyvale homes rose 16% from a year earlier, and up 8.5% compared to December.
  • The median sale price is up both monthly and annually.
  • Inventory rose tremendously compared to December, but it’s down compared to the year before.
  • Pending sales are up from last year from the month before.
  • The sale to list price climbed to 107.7, amazingly high for January.

PLEASE visit our ReReport page for data here, throughout Santa Clara County, and also for San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties.

(If you’re viewing this on a mobile phone, swipe horizontally to see the full chart if it goes off the screen.)

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,368,000 (+16.7%)$2,029,500$2,130,000 (+11.2%)
Average Price$2,309,890 (+8.5%)$2,128,840$1,990,860 (+16.0%)
No. of Sales19 (-9.5%)2114 (+35.7%)
Pending20 (+11.1%)1814 (+42.9%)
Active17 (+183.3%)630 (-43.3%)
Sale vs. List Price107.7% (+1.0%)106.6%98.6% (+9.2%)
Days on Market13 (-34.2%)2039 (-66.8%)
Days of Inventory27 (+213.2%)964 (-58.2%)

 

You may also want to see how Sunnyvale stacks up to other communities in Santa Clara County. If so, click to see the PDF Real Estate Report for Santa Clara County, updated monthly.

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Cupertino Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics

Cupertino real estate market will be more expensive for view homes in nearly all cases -image taken from Ridge VineyardsHow’s the Cupertino real estate market? In December and January both, sales were down month over month, which is not atypical for this time of year. Home buyers getting into contract in November or December typically get the best prices of the year with the least competition (and often lowest interest rates, too, as that is also a supply and demand issue).

We are seeing and hearing of multiple offers and massive overbids in many parts of the valley right now. How about Cupertino? A quick look just now (Feb 14) at the pending sales (no contingencies) finds:

  • 14 houses / single family homes sale pending
  • Average days on market = 13 (super fast)
  • 10 of the 13 homes sold in 9 days or less (red hot)
  • list prices range from about $2.2 mil to about $3.9 million with an average list price of about $3 million (clearly not just entry level homes are selling well)

The pending sales are our window into the near future and from these we can see a market which is heating up as compared to the closed sales in the table below from the RE Report. Buyers, buckle up – it is a seller’s market and it’s deepening in that direction!

Cupertino Real Estate market – Closed Sales and Trends at a Glance

Here are the most recent real estate statistics, via our Cupertino Real Estate Report. The market is HOT! With just 10 sales in January, the prices appear to be lower than in December, but these aren’t enough data points to be sure.

(If you’re viewing the chart below on a mobile device, please swipe horizontally to see all columns.)

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,465,000 (-8.7%)$2,700,000$2,475,000 (-0.4%)
Average Price$2,580,400 (-9.0%)$2,835,390$2,376,670 (+8.6%)
No. of Sales10 (-33.3%)15(+66.7%)
Pending(0.0%)9(+80.0%)
Active15 (+114.3%)7(+87.5%)
Sale vs. List Price96.6% (-4.0%)100.6%99.4% (-2.9%)
Days on Market20 (-52.2%)4213 (+62.4%)
Days of Inventory45 (+221.4%)1440 (+12.5%)

 

 

Cupertino real estate market via the Altos Research weekly charts (they use LIST prices, not sale prices):

 

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The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian Park real estate market remains a strong seller’s market.

For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

QUICK NOTE: Just now I looked at the pending sales online. If we consider only resale, not the homes at Cully Place, there are 25 houses which are pending (no contingencies) and the average days on market for them is a mere 7. The largest days on market is 15! This is an indicator that the market is white hot – pending sales are an early warning to buyers taking their time that conditions are swinging more deeply into the sellers’ favor.

This is very much what Clair and I are seeing across the valley. We’ve learned of many homes that sold within a week in which there were multiple offers, sometimes more than 10, with the resulting sale 15 – 20% over list price! It’s not limited to one area or another but truly seems to be all over, particularly for houses under $ 2million.

The chart below is from the RE Report. Home prices are up both monthly and annually by a solid amount. The sale to list price ratio rose again. It remains a strong seller’s market in Cambrian Park with just 12 days of inventory and 106.6% sale price to list price ratio.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,755,000 (+0.4%)$1,747,780$1,576,500 (+11.3%)
Average Price$2,032,290 (+6.8%)$1,902,930$1,552,860 (+30.9%)
No. of Sales17 (-45.2%)3114 (+21.4%)
Pending32 (+45.5%)2220 (+60.0%)
Active(+16.7%)621 (-66.7%)
Sale vs. List Price106.6% (+2.0%)104.5%100.0% (+6.6%)
Days on Market15 (+22.8%)1323 (-32.1%)
Days of Inventory12 (+112.7%)645 (-72.5%)

 

 

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Santa Teresa real estate market

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose - the proximity of parks will impact the Santa Teresa real estate market for that neighborhood

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market? The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable, offering lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time making the area more desirable. These positives appear to be helping that district hold its value well. Here are a few details from the latest monthly market update for Santa Teresa single family homes (read the full analysis below):

  • Both the single family and condo / townhouse market are seller’s markets with extremely few available listings, per the latest monthly data.
  • Average and median sale prices have risen slightly month-over-month and year-over-year
  • Homes are selling extremely quickly with time on market speeding to a 5 day average, while market absorption slowed to a crawl at 105 days (though I don’t expect it to stay there for long)
  • The number of closed sales plummetted month-over-month, while pending sales and active inventory more than doubled. Compared to last year, closed sales and active inventory have fallen behind while pending sales are up a hair.

To begin our analysis below, we have some live data feeds broken up by zip code. Santa Teresa (our MLS Area 2)  includes a small bit of the 95123 zip code, which is more expensive, but most of that zip code is Blossom Valley, so we will omit it. The 95138 zip code is about half Santa Teresa and half Evergreen (more expensive area), so take those numbers with a big grain of salt. I find the 95119 zip code to be most helpful, but even then, the school district is divided between Oak Grove and Morgan Hill.

Weekly update from Altos Research with a “market profile” of San Jose’s Santa Teresa area, zip code 95119 for single family homes / houses:

When there’s not enough data, the fields will be blank.

 

Santa Teresa of San Jose 95119 Real-Time Market Profile

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Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions San Jose 95120 - photo with Mt Umunhum in backgroundThe Almaden Valley real estate market is experiencing some up and down, but remains clearly in a seller’s market and much stronger than it was one year ago. Inventory remains perpetually low, so the best homes in great locations are selling like hotcakes while buyers are passing over others that may need more work.

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions: Trends at a Glance

First, a look at the residential real estate market statistics for Almaden, or San Jose 95120 from the Real Estate Report (a subscription that uses closed / sold data).

Please note that there are 12 closed sales and just 9 active – that ratio tells us that the houses in 95120 are in strong demand. The sale to list price ratio is over 100%, so we know buyers are competing to get these properties, and most are selling with multiple offers.

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,107,500 (-8.6%)$2,307,000$2,387,500 (-11.7%)
Average Price$2,093,880 (-17.6%)$2,541,990$2,693,440 (-22.3%)
No. of Sales12 (-14.3%)14(+50.0%)
Pending13 (+18.2%)1112 (+8.3%)
Active(+28.6%)718 (-50.0%)
Sale vs. List Price101.7% (-0.5%)102.1%95.0% (+7.0%)
Days on Market16 (-27.0%)2359 (-72.4%)
Days of Inventory23 (+50.0%)1568 (-66.7%)

 

 

Altos Research charts for Almaden Valley real estate market, single family homes segment (more…)

Saratoga CA Real Estate Market Update

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California - photo for article on the Saratoga CA real estate market

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

The Saratoga CA real estate market is a strengthening sellers’ market for single family homes :

  • the average sale price is up annually and monthly by well more than double digits
  • inventory of Saratoga houses for sale is way down compared to a more normal December (see inventory table below)
  • the sale to list price ratio moved down to just 100% in January. December and January are usually the softest months of the year, so this is not surprising.

 

How’s the Saratoga CA real estate market?

Saratoga has a diverse real estate market due to a wide range of home prices, square footage, lot sizes, school districts, and more. The luxury tier, generally $4 million and up (but in Saratoga, that’s really still just a house in an expensive part of town) normally moves slower than other price points. Saratoga’s entry level housing is usually the strongest. If the numbers swing wildly at any given month, it could be that more or fewer homes in a particular school district and pricing tier.

To really understand the Saratoga CA real estate market, you’ll need to get hyper local data for that home’s pricing tier, school district, and any other impactful data points.

Saratoga inventory of homes for sale

With 25 years worth of data to display, I thought the format below would make the most sense. It’s too wide to have all years side by side. We know that inventory is low everywhere. As a benchmark, I checked inventory from 2013 (when the market was truly recovered from the Great Recession) to 2023 and also from 2000 – 2024 (January).

 

Saratoga CA inventory of single family homes for sale 2000-2024 January

 

Trends at a Glance for the Saratoga CA Real Estate Market

Here’s a quick overview from the RE Report details below or please view the full data here.

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$4,140,000 (+29.7%)$3,192,000$3,500,000 (+18.3%)
Average Price$4,280,580 (+24.9%)$3,427,130$3,640,000 (+17.6%)
No. of Sales14 (-6.7%)15(+100.0%)
Pending(-54.5%)11(-16.7%)
Active12 (-20.0%)1517 (-29.4%)
Sale vs. List Price100.0% (-8.5%)109.3%101.2% (-1.2%)
Days on Market21 (+17.1%)1834 (-38.0%)
Days of Inventory26 (-14.3%)3073 (-64.7%)

 

 

Altos Research real estate market data for Saratoga, CA single family homes

Next, a quick glance at the Altos Research market profile for a quick summary of the Saratoga CA real estate market conditions. Altos uses LIST prices, not sold prices, for this chart and the others, below.

Market profile for Saratoga CA 95070

 

Real-Time Market Profile Saratoga, CA 95070

 

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