The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a red hot seller’s market, entering the spring market in full swing!

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The March 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes rose to 110.1% of asking, that’s +2.0% from last month per the RE Report and +6.9% from this time 2023. For the MLS stats we pulled today, however, it shows 109.5% average, up from 108.0% (+1.5%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, and heating up fast towards spring.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 14.5%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose by around 6% – 9%!
  • The time on market sped up slightly month-over-month to a 14 day average (RE Report).

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While we aren’t seeing the same market acceleration as we did at the peak, in some ways this market has been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. And it doesn’t look like inventory will really pick up any time soon, either.

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate incentive to hold on to their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not necessarily breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the lowest March inventory over more than a decade! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceMar 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,715,000 (+6.3%)$1,613,500$1,499,500 (+14.4%)
Average Price$1,832,510 (+8.9%)$1,682,100$1,600,230 (+14.5%)
No. of Sales297 (+42.8%)208310 (-4.2%)
Pending296 (+13.8%)260252 (+17.5%)
Active164 (+14.7%)143257 (-36.2%)
Sale vs. List Price110.1% (+2.0%)107.9%103.1% (+6.9%)
Days on Market14 (-10.1%)1624 (-40.5%)
Days of Inventory17 (-13.9%)1925 (-33.4%)

 

Available inventory is significantly less than was at this time last year, while pending sales have risen above 2023 numbers and closed sales are just a tad behind. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market launching into spring. Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian Park real estate market remains a strong seller’s market.

For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

QUICK STATS from the MLS today, April 10, 2024:

  • 33 single family homes (SFH) for sale in Cambrian (MLS area 14)
    • 19 of these are NOT syndicated right now
    • 12 are “members only, do not show”
    • 7 are “members only, show” – if buyers are only looking at the big portals, they will be unaware that 7 additional homes are for sale!
  • 0 contingent sale (most sales have no contingencies right now)
  • 40 SFH which are “sale pending” (no contingencies)
  • 52 houses sold in the last month
    • Average list price $1,673,149
    • Average sale price $1,908,608
    • Average sale price to list price ratio 116% (lowest was 99%, highest was 182% !!!)
    • Average home square footage 1606 SF
    • Average lot size 6,999 SF
    • Lowest sale price $1,330,000
    • Highest sale price $3,275,000

The chart below is from the RE Report.  The number of sales continues to rise – not that there are 40 pending sales and 26 closed ones! With just 15 active listings, it seems like nearly everything is selling well.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceFeb 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,932,500 (+10.1%)$1,755,000$1,525,000 (+26.7%)
Average Price$1,996,490 (-1.8%)$2,032,290$1,584,780 (+26.0%)
No. of Sales26 (+52.9%)1719 (+36.8%)
Pending40 (+25.0%)3228 (+42.9%)
Active15 (+114.3%)724 (-37.5%)
Sale vs. List Price112.0% (+5.1%)106.6%103.3% (+8.4%)
Days on Market(-50.6%)1519 (-60.0%)
Days of Inventory16 (+30.8%)1234 (-52.6%)

 

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Cambrian Park: Good Schools, Low Crime, Close to Los Gatos and Campbell

Cambrian Park, or more broadly, Cambrian, is a west San Jose neighborhood or district and is one of the high-value areas in Silicon Valley. The schools are good, the crime is low, and the commute is not too bad.

Cambrian Park Plaza signFor people relocating to Santa Clara County, this is a place to know about since quality education and affordability are often high priorities! Most Silicon Valley home buyers would say that Cambrian Park real estate offers a very good value.

What’s the compromise for the more reasonable prices of homes for sale? Well, Cambrian doesn’t have an interesting, upscale downtown area like Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, or Willow Glen. (It may, when the Cambrian Park Plaza redevelopment takes place.)

But it does have tons of shopping & restaurants and even a Farmer’s Market. It also enjoys a top notch hospital (Good Samaritan) and plenty of parks as well as a fantastic rec center with a large park adjacent to it, the Camden Community Center, which has loads of programs (including an after school program for youth), classes, and a fabulous pool.

Altogether, there are about 75,000 to 80,000 residents in Cambrian, spread throughout part of two zip codes, part of 95124 and some of 95118.

If there is a “central Cambrian Park”, it would have to be near the original Cambrian Park Shopping Center, which was the first actual mall in San Jose! That area is sometimes known as Cambrian Village.  People sometimes use the three names interchangeably: Cambrian, Cambrian Park, Cambrian Village.

 

Where is Cambrian Park? Map of approximate Cambrian Boundaries:

 


View Cambrian Area of San Jose in a larger map

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Cambrian & Cambrian Park Neighborhoods: How to Choose Where to Live?

Cambrian Park neighborhoods are very popular within San Jose. With close proximity to Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen and Blossom Valley, there’s lots to do within Cambrian itself or very nearby.  Cambrian also enjoys good schools, low crime, two newer libraries, two Farmer’s Markets, and a fabulous rec center, the Camden Community Center.

Cambrian Park neighborhoods

cambrian-park-plaza-signWhere is Cambrian Park and how big is it? The 2010 census reported Cambrian Park as having less than 4,000 people, but it didn’t include all Cambrian Park neighborhoods! In contemporary usage, though, Cambrian consists of much more than the area known as “Cambrian Village” (which has this small population), and now includes about 75,000 residents in all.

The area includes most of the 95124 zip code plus the 95118 zip code. Historically, though, Cambrian was really a very vast area including much of Campbell and many areas now falling under different district names.  The area is alternately known as Cambrian, Cambrian Park, and Cambrian Village – the latter referring to the area near Union & Camden Avenues.

Related posts not to be missed:

 

Cambrian Park neighborhoods area with general boundaries

 

How do you decide where in Cambrian to live? Many aspects of home buying will likely come into play, from schools desired and budget available to the ambiance and practical things you desire such as RV parking, an extra large garage, family room, guest suite, commute issues (proximity to freeways),  etc.

School Districts serving the Cambrian Park neighborhoods

Your decision might be influenced by the school district you want; the Cambrian Park neighborhoods have three elementary school districts. Most are good to great – Cambrian Park almost no low scoring schools – but some are exceptionally high. Some districts may have more offerings for special needs kids or gifted kids – if you have children and are looking at placing them in the local public schools, do your research before you house hunt!

  1. The north and northwest side of Cambrian Park (going into Campbell and Willow Glen) has schools belonging to the Cambrian School District (see map).
  2. The east side of Cambrian Park (going toward Blossom Valley) is part of the territory of the San Jose Unified School District.  Schools for all of San Jose are beautifully mapped out by the district – you have to zoom in to see the boundaries around Cambrian but it includes all three local districts so is worth the extra steps!
  3. The southwest side of Cambrian (and east Los Gatos) is within the boundaries of the Union School District, which also has a helpful map of the borders. The map is a pdf and it is very detailed.
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Cambrian Park homes for sale

Orange graphicLooking to buy a home in San Jose’s popular Cambrian district, with zip codes 95124 or 95118?  This is a great part of Silicon Valley! Browse a list of Cambrian Park homes for sale below.  Or use this link to view a “map search of Cambrian listings“, which you can customize with criteria such as home size, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, and so on.

A major driver in Cambrian real estate values are the public schools.  The Cambrian area is partly in the Union School District (seems to be the most in demand – 95124, a little in 95118), partly in the Cambrian School District (also very highly regarded schools – 95124), and partly in the San Jose Unified School District (in 95118).

On this site you will find many articles on the various Cambrian Park neighborhoods (from menu bar:  neighborhoods –> San Jose (all areas)–> Cambrian Park).  There are also many posts on community spots, such as Houge Park, the real estate market, and much more – please take a look around.

Cambrian Park homes for sale: houses & duet homes (single family)

Houses,  single family homes, detached and attached in San Jose’s 95118 and 95124 zip codes currently available or under contract (pending).  These are presented in order of newest listings first. Condominiums and townhomes for this community can be found below.

  • List View
  • Map View
  • Grid View

See all Cambrian Park Area of San Jose Real Estate.
(all data current as of 4/15/2024)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

 
 

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Houge Park in the Cambrian area of San Jose

Houge Park on Cambrian area of San JoseHouge Park is a fantasticly appointed, well maintained twelve and a half acre park in the Cambrian area of San Jose (at Twilight Drive & White Oaks Avenue, SJ 95124).   There’s something for everyone, whether it’s benches to sit and enjoy the area, tables for playing chess and checkers, or opportunities to play tennis or chess. With a large, grassy spaces and a walking & jogging trail, folks who want to just get out and walk will have plenty of room for that.

When my (now grown) kids were small, my husband would sometimes take them there to meet up with a local astronomy club to view the stars. I’d take them to the playground to let off steam during the day.  It was really helpful that there is so much space – and restrooms!

 

Features of Houge Park

Some of the most appreciated aspects of Houge Park are these:

  • Restrooms
  • 3 Playground areas in all, including one for ages 2-5 & another ages 5-12
  • Picnic sites (no reservation)
  • BBQ
  • Horseshoe pit
  • Exercise course
  • Basketball court
  • ½ basketball court
  • Two tennis courts (unlighted)
  • Parking lot & plenty of street parking

If you’ve never been to Houge Park, it’s a worthwhile destination and a pleasant surprise in the midst of a residential neighborhood.  Cambrian is a popular area in which to live, and even nicer if you’re in close proximity to a beautiful park such as this  one.

With the Houge Park sign, shown above, you can see that there are play structures in the distance – with lots of lawn in between.

One of the nearby neighborhoods is the Villa Cambrian subdivision in the Parker area.

Continue reading to see more photos and get more info.

 

Houge Park swings and more

 

Below, please note the nicely paved path and par course.

 

Houge Park in San Jose

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Check the months of inventory to see if it’s a good time to sell your home!

Months of Inventory explained with an hourglassIs it a good time to sell a home in Silicon Valley? One of the best ways to get a pulse on the real estate market with an eye to selling or buying is with the months of inventory (MOI), also known as the absorption rate. This is the months of supply of housing for sale.

The months of inventory tells us how fast the current inventory of properties will be sold off if sales were to continue at the same rate with no new inventory were to come on the market.

The easiest analogy is with a bathtub full of water. If we added no more water to the tub, and the drain were opened, how much time would it take for the water to be depleted if it continued to empty at the same rate? That’s the question being answered with the absorption rate of inventory.

Or, simpler still, if you have an hourglass that you turn over, how long does it take for the sand to empty from the top (since you cannot add more sand to that end)?

How to calculate the months of inventory or MOI

The way to calculate the months of inventory is simple:  find the current available inventory of homes for sale (not under contract or sale pending), then find the number of homes with that exact criteria which have closed escrow in the last 30 days.  Divide the first by the second and you get the months of inventory. Or, I can just use the stats program on the MLS to generate that number, as I did today.

Earlier I pulled this data from MLSListings.com, our local MLS association (of which I am a member) and I ran the numbers for single family homes (houses and duet homes) in Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Jose (all areas combined), Santa Clara, Saratoga, Sunnyvale. Separately, I also ran this same query for the City of San Jose by district.

The months of inventory by city or town in Santa Clara County

A balanced market for our area is 2-3 months of inventory (for most of the US it’s 4-6 months). Two months or less is a seller’s market, and one month or less is a very hot seller’s market.

Here’s a look at the months of inventory by city or town in SCC in April 2023 for single family homes.  As you can see, the vast majority of the county is a strong seller’s market, with the only exception being Los Altos Hills.

 

Santa Clara County months of inventory by city in Santa Clara County - single family homes for April 2023

 

Which are the hottest markets?  They’re the ones with the smallest months of inventory -Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Milpitas and many more are well under the 2 month market. A few are a tad higher and in the “balanced market” area, and only one is in a deep buyer’s market.

The months of inventory by area within the City of San Jose

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How do prices compare between Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino and Palo Alto?

Los Gatos Saratoga Cupertino and Palo AltoWhat does it cost to buy a home with really good schools in Silicon Valley? Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino and Palo Alto are all areas with highly regarding public schools and high home prices. These aren’t the only areas with good schools but they are popular “west valley” areas that people may consider if working for Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook or any number of high tech employers.

Los Gatos and Saratoga both have multiple school districts, running from good to very good or excellent. The cost of housing tends to follow the popularity of the district, so for those areas I’m showing the breakdown not just for the whole town of Los Gatos but also by the high school district (Los Gatos-Saratoga or Campbell Union High School District). Same with Saratoga. (The Monte Sereno real estate market is very similar to Los Gatos, but slightly more expensive. Most of Monte Sereno has Los Gatos schools, but a small number of homes are in the Campbell area.)

Cost Comparison: 4 West Valley Communities with Good Schools

Here are the average numbers for single family homes sold in the last 60 days ranging from 1,500 – 2,500 square feet, on a lot between 5,000 and 10,000 SF, with 3-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms to give a sense of what it would cost to purchase a typical house in these areas. Please note that right now it’s a strong seller’s market, so many (if not most or all) homes are selling for more than the list price.  DOM stands for days on the market.

 

Comparing Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, and Palo Alto Markets 3/27/2023

 

If you are new to Santa Clara County, you may be wondering if this is correct. The cost to buy a home in these areas is what?

  • Los Gatos: approximately $2,000,000 to $2,600,000 depending on the school district and size of the home and condition (more on that below)
  • Saratoga: more on this below, but approximately $2,800,000 to about $3,500,000 depending on the schools, condition, etc.
  • Cupertino: approx $2,600,000 – $3,200,000 (some areas will bring in higher prices and others lower)
  • Palo Alto: approx $2,700,000 – $3,900,000 and any home over 2,000 SqFt (except for one fixer) sold at or over $3.7M

Remember, these prices do not mean that the houses being sold are perfect. Because it is a strong seller’s market, many properties are being sold which need new roofing, extensive pest work, remodeling, perhaps updating of electrical or plumbing systems or more. Many home buyers will need to spend 1-2% on things like termite fumigation, dry rot or roof repairs, carpets, paint, windows and more, and usually this will be done before they move in. So whatever the budget is, buffer it a little bit for both money and time to make it turnkey.

A Closer Look: Los Gatos and Saratoga

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Online home valuation programs and why they are usually inaccurate

The online home valuation websites are in high demand for spot checking a price. They are fast, easy, and free. 
Online home valuation graphic: same House Different ValuationsEveryone wants an easy answer, but often the easy answers aren’t all that accurate.

Online home valuation confusion

Sometimes our clients present us with “THE VALUE” of property per one of these free online home valuation websites sites and in some cases, they challenge us to disprove it (Zillow says it, or some other site, so it must be right, goes the thinking).  If they want to buy a house which is listed for more than the auto-comped value, it may cause some emotional anguish.  And if they want to buy one which is listed for less, they may feel a little giddy – unless multiple offers are looming.

The same is true with home sellers.  They agonize when Zillow, Trulia or some other big name site places a worth on their property which is less than what they feel it should be.

Often the best way to respond is to show many of the online valuations and not just the one the client is focused on (often that’s either Zillow or Redfin, but some are attached so some other site’s numbers.

What might surprise a lot of people is the huge discrepancy in values given.

Sample auto comp values online

A good exercise is picking a home that you know fairly well and then seeing what the online home valuation tools say for each one. I picked a home that I know and ran the address through several websites that provide automatic pricing info. Here are the results, from low to high:

Not included in online home valuation study:
Eppraisal $2,072,000 (too high)

Included in the online home valuation study:
Chase $1,721,800
Collateral Analytics (via Realtor.com)  $1,671,000
Redfin $1,644,906
CoreLogic (via Realtor.com) $1,631,300
NAR RPR $1,617,440 (subscription only for Realtors)
Zillow $1,580,300
Quantarium (via Realtor.com) $1,566,759
Bank of America $1,504,391

(Please note: the Trulia home value estimator is the same as Zillow’s Zestimate because Zillow owns Trulia.)

From top to bottom, the amount varies by $217,409! That’s a 14% gap between top and bottom. Had we included Eppraisal, it would have been even crazier.

How can the online home valuations disagree so much?

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Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicHow’s Cambrian Park condo & townhouse market? Normally we answer this question in brief with regular monthly updates over on the Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update. Here we will provide some more depth  with condominium and townhome data.

Before we dive in the the statistics for sold properties last month, let’s see what’s selling now in the Cambrian Park condo & townhouse  segment of the market.

Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse market

Just now (as of November 14, 2022), I looked into the MLS to see the condo and townhome sales in Cambrian over the last month. Inventory is painfully low, and therefore, so are the sales.

  • There are 8 units listed for sale as “active” (not pending or under contract)
    • 6 are listed as condos (1 is “agent only” status, do not show)
    •  2 are listed as townhouses (both are “agent only” status)
  • 0 homes are under contract with one or more contingencies
  • 0 homes are pending with no contingencies
  • 7 condos / townhomes have sold and closed escrow in the last 30 days (4 condos, 3 townhomes)
    • They sold with an average of 14 days on market (condos 17 days, townhomes 9)
    • Average sale price to list price ratio was 101% (range 97% – 112%, condominiums averaged 99%, townhouses 104%)

Home prices appear to be down about 10% from the peak generally. It could be more or less in any given micro market.

Now let’s have a look at some of the numbers from our Real Estate Report:

Real Estate Report: Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse Market – San Jose

Home prices are down from the peak here as they are throughout the valley. Please take the month over month and year over year sale price numbers with a big grain of salt. With so few transactions happening, there’s not enough data to be really accurate. What’s better is finding what else has sold for your home (or the one you’re interested in) recently. It should be within a mile, have the same school district, zip code, and similar location overall, and it should be within 10% of the home size of the comparable, or “comp”.

What we do know is that the days of inventory and the days on market are both longer than they were.  The market is jiggling up and down a little each month, and the general trend may be that we’ve hit the bottom of pricing for now.

 

Trends At a GlanceOct 2022Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$680,000 (-24.9%)$905,000$901,250 (-24.5%)
Average Price$814,271 (-9.9%)$903,625$945,883 (-13.9%)
No. of Sales(-12.5%)818 (-61.1%)
Pending(+60.0%)514 (-42.9%)
Active(+25.0%)4(-44.4%)
Sale vs. List Price101.1% (+2.6%)98.5%102.1% (-1.0%)
Days on Market17 (+30.6%)1316 (+8.3%)
Days of Inventory21 (+47.8%)1515 (+42.9%)

Altos Research Live Charts

The market profiles are live, updating automatically once every week, with active inventory from MLS listings.

Most of Cambrian Park falls under the 95124 zip code.  Here’s a quick look at the main real estate market data points for Cambrian 95124 this week:

 

What’s making it strong when prices have fallen? Mostly it’s a lack of inventory couples with a healthy buyer demand.

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