The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a hot seller’s market, keeping active into winter with slight seasonal cooling. Demand may have shrunk between rising rates and inflation, but inventory remains historically low so it’s still far from balanced!

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The January 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes rose to 104.7% of asking, that’s +1.6% from last month per the RE Report and +6.1% from this time 2023, following the bottom of the market’s decline. For the MLS stats we pulled today, however, it shows 104.4% average, up from 102.8% (+1.6%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, and warming up into the new year.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 8% – 19%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose around 1% – 5%.
  • The time on market slowed slightly month-over-month to a 22 day average (RE Report). That’s still quick turnover averaging well below a month, indicating a clear seller’s market.

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While prices and overbids have fallen since the peak, in some ways 2023 was even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. And it doesn’t look like inventory will really pick up any time soon, either.

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate to hold on to at their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains at record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the second lowest January inventory over more than a decade (only January 2022 was lower)! If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceJan 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,600,000 (+4.9%)$1,525,000$1,347,500 (+18.7%)
Average Price$1,693,940 (+1.0%)$1,677,520$1,563,350 (+8.4%)
No. of Sales157 (-25.2%)210128 (+22.7%)
Pending197 (+20.1%)164152 (+29.6%)
Active120 (+25.0%)96250 (-52.0%)
Sale vs. List Price104.7% (+1.6%)103.1%98.7% (+6.1%)
Days on Market22 (+14.1%)1931 (-28.7%)
Days of Inventory23 (+67.2%)1459 (-60.9%)

 

Available inventory is less than half of was at this time last year, while pending and closed sales have risen above 2023 numbers. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market launching out of a slightly cooler December and into the new year. Winter tends to be the best time for buyers to snag a “deal”, however we’re beginning to leave the winter trends behind and spring is fast approaching! Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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Cambrian & Cambrian Park Neighborhoods: How to Choose Where to Live?

Cambrian Park neighborhoods are very popular within San Jose. With close proximity to Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen and Blossom Valley, there’s lots to do within Cambrian itself or very nearby.  Cambrian also enjoys good schools, low crime, two newer libraries, two Farmer’s Markets, and a fabulous rec center, the Camden Community Center.

Cambrian Park neighborhoods

cambrian-park-plaza-signWhere is Cambrian Park and how big is it? The 2010 census reported Cambrian Park as having less than 4,000 people, but it didn’t include all Cambrian Park neighborhoods! In contemporary usage, though, Cambrian consists of much more than the area known as “Cambrian Village” (which has this small population), and now includes about 75,000 residents in all.

The area includes most of the 95124 zip code plus the 95118 zip code. Historically, though, Cambrian was really a very vast area including much of Campbell and many areas now falling under different district names.  The area is alternately known as Cambrian, Cambrian Park, and Cambrian Village – the latter referring to the area near Union & Camden Avenues.

Related posts not to be missed:

 

Cambrian Park neighborhoods area with general boundaries

 

How do you decide where in Cambrian to live? Many aspects of home buying will likely come into play, from schools desired and budget available to the ambiance and practical things you desire such as RV parking, an extra large garage, family room, guest suite, commute issues (proximity to freeways),  etc.

School Districts serving the Cambrian Park neighborhoods

Your decision might be influenced by the school district you want; the Cambrian Park neighborhoods have three elementary school districts. Most are good to great – Cambrian Park almost no low scoring schools – but some are exceptionally high. Some districts may have more offerings for special needs kids or gifted kids – if you have children and are looking at placing them in the local public schools, do your research before you house hunt!

  1. The north and northwest side of Cambrian Park (going into Campbell and Willow Glen) has schools belonging to the Cambrian School District (see map).
  2. The east side of Cambrian Park (going toward Blossom Valley) is part of the territory of the San Jose Unified School District.  Schools for all of San Jose are beautifully mapped out by the district – you have to zoom in to see the boundaries around Cambrian but it includes all three local districts so is worth the extra steps!
  3. The southwest side of Cambrian (and east Los Gatos) is within the boundaries of the Union School District, which also has a helpful map of the borders. The map is a pdf and it is very detailed.
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The Alta Vista Neighborhood in Los Gatos and Cambrian Park

Alta Vista School Sign 1

Alta Vista Elementary School 200 Blossom Valley Dr, Los Gatos, CA 95032

The Alta Vista neighborhood, which sits along the border of Los Gatos and the Cambrian Park district of San Jose, is very highly sought after and valued for many reasons. Real estate prices vary depending upon the precise location within the neighborhood as well as the size and condition of the home.

Major draws include these:

  • good schools that are in the immediate neighborhood
  • shopping nearby
  • scenic area with many tree lined streets and close proximity of the hills
  • excellent commute access (Highway 85, Blossom Hill Road)
  • quick trip to downtown Los Gatos

Scenic, convenient Alta Vista neighborhood

Prior to being developed for housing, this spot at the base of Blossom Hill was once blanketed in orchards and was scenic enough that it was part of the “blossom tours” that used to take place at the height of the flowering.  Hence, one large section of this neighborhood has street names that begin with “blossom”.

Most of the streets close to Alta Vista School are beautifully tree-lined, and from virtually everywhere in the neighborhood, you are close to Blossom Hill (that’s the name of the hill, not just the name of the road!). Homes are well kept, streets are wide enough, and except when there’s a school function, there really aren’t too many cars on the street. It is very scenic, pleasant and uncrowded feeling. Although you’re in the city or town, you feel close to the country there.

There are a few homes along Nimrick or Blossom Hill on large parcels, many of which enjoy beautiful valley views.

Additionally, many homebuyers select this area because the school scores are high and because it’s easy to get to the elementary and middle schools without crossing any major streets: that is a big plus! It is also a quick drive to highway 85, just a couple of miles to the Los Gatos shopping areas (at Los Gatos Blvd and Blossom Hill Road) or to Vasona Lake County Park. For many, it’s a way to be close to downtown Los Gatos.

Where is this neighborhood? What are the landmarks?

The neighborhood considered to be “Alta Vista” has three strong borders and one vague one. The three well defined edges are Blossom Hill Road, Union Avenue, and Los Gatos Almaden Road. The fourth boundary is approximately the edge of Ross Creek, which runs behind Westchester Drive, but perhaps some would argue that it goes a little further. The Westchester Manor area is highlighted on this website if you’d like to check it out.

Alta Vista neighborhood map - Click to see it on Google My Maps (created by Mary Pope-Handy)

Alta Vista neighborhood map

There are several landmarks in the neighborhood:
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Noddin neighborhood in Cambrian

The Noddin neighborhood in Cambrian is on the edge of Los Gatos and Almaden along Blossom Hill Road and Camden Avenues. The Santa Cruz Mountains are visible from many parts of this community if you are facing south and most of the streets are tree-lined, while homes are generally tidy. It’s attractive generally, and a few homes are up on a bit of a knoll and enjoy valley views, too.  The local schools are all highly regarded, the commute access to major freeways is convenient – but not too close. For all of these reasons, this corner of San Jose is highly regarded.

Ranch style house in the Noddin area near the base of the foothills

 

Where is the Noddin neighborhood?

This part of Cambrian wraps around Los Gatos on two sides (Surmont, Belgatos, and Belwood of Los Gatos subdivisions) and faces the Oak Canyon neighborhood across Camden on the other. The northern boundary line follows the high voltage power line easement.

What’s a little bit funny is that this part of Cambrian in San Jose is referred to as Noddin, the local elementary school on Harwood Road, but some of the area is within the attendance zone for Alta Vista, some for Noddin, and some for Guadalupe Elementary.

The boundaries for this pocket of San Jose vary a little, but for the purposes of this article, I’m using the approximate area used by Nextdoor.

In the Noddin neighborhood map below, the green line is the boundary between Los Gatos and San Jose (Cambrian). The dark red line is the school attendance area per the MLS map (it is a little bit off).

 

Map of the Noddin area in Cambrian (San Jose) 95124

What are homes like in the Noddin neighborhood?

Within this almost “L” shaped area there are

  1. approximately 93 condominiums (mostly at the Montañas de Los Gatos, which have townhouse style homes held in condo ownership)
  2. 48 duplexes (so 96 units)
  3. 12 multi family units (as in apartments, or possibly triplex and fourplex properties)
  4. and approximately 960 single family homes (or houses – the exact number varies if you count a tiny handful of houses along Hicks Road that are in Los Gatos or not).
  5. There were also 5 vacant lots that appear to be zoned residential, or which had houses that have been razed – not much if your goal is to build new!

There’s a little variety, but the area is overwhelmingly houses. (more…)

Oster Neighborhood in Cambrian

The Oster neighborhood, anchored around Oster Elementary School in San Jose’s Cambrian district, is situated on the north side of highway 85 and just west of Camden Avenue, part of the 95124 zip code. It’s one of the more affordable areas within the highly regarded Union School District, which is not to say that real estate prices are inexpensive there! They are just slightly softer than those around Carlton, Alta Vista, and Guadalupe, generally. The Oster area has a subdivision directly adjacent to the school, Cambrian Acres, but the neighborhood is much larger than just that one subdivision.

 

Oster Elemenary in Cambrian attendance map

 

The Oster neighborhood is a nicely maintained pocket within Silicon Valley’s “west valley” (which follows Highway 85). One of the highlights of the area is Butcher Park, which includes a dog park area.  It’s the other side of Camden from the school and is really a second anchor for the community. (Personal note: we celebrated my son’s first birthday at Butcher Park, so I am particularly fond of it.)

 

Butcher Park and dog park in Cambrian

 

There’s loads of lawn and play area:

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Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood in Cambrian Park

Close to the Los Gatos border but in San Jose with the 95124 zip code, the Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood enjoys a central neighborhood park, great access to major commute routes, the highly regarded Noddin Elementary School adjacent to one border, plus shopping and dining venues nearby.

Where is the Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood?

Map of the Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood in San Jose, CA (Cambrian Park district with zip code 95124)The Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood in Cambrian Park stretches from Blossom Hill Road to the West Valley Freeway, also known locally as Highway 85, with Camden Avenue to the east and Harwood Road to the west.

From this corner of Cambrian Park, it’s easy to access Highway 85 at Camden Avenue.  Camden becomes San Tomas Expressway at Highway 880, so many commuters may stay off of freeways entirely.  Blossom Hill Road is parallel to 85 and provides a good route to downtown Los Gatos to the west, or many shopping areas in Blossom Valley such as Oakridge Mall.

Just the other side of Harwood Road is the Glenpark subdivision and the Harwood Estates subdivision. These are still generally in the Lone Hill area, but not Lone Hill Highlands. Kitty corner across Blossom Hill and Harwood is the Walgreen’s Shopping Center with a nice new Starbucks, Los Gatos Pizza, and much more. Just behind that is the Belwood of Los Gatos neighborhood.

Public schools assigned are the very highly regarded Lone Hill Elementary, Union Middle, and Leigh High.

What are homes like in the Lone Hills area of San Jose?

Most of this Cambrian neighborhood consists of single family homes. There are 850 houses (single family homes, detached) and 108 attached single family homes in the Lone Hill Highlands HOA area (not detached houses, and actually held in condo ownership – see darker purple area in the map). Additionally, there are some multifamily homes and apartments.

Drysdale tract original criss cross windowsThe houses are mostly in either the Lone Hill Highlands subdivision (with 449 houses) or the Harwood Manor subdivision (401 houses). This area was initially all or at least primarily filled with single story, ranch style houses.

Local Realtors may think of much of this area by Camden, Blossom Hill and Harwood as the Drysdale tract with some whimsical features, such as telltale criss-cross windows, sometimes with shutters that seem to feature a telephone handset, and roofline and window frame ornamentation.  They also tend to have courtyard entries, often with half gates, making for more privacy at the front door.  Most of the houses have dual pane windows and have long since gotten rid of the criss-cross windows, but there are still a few to be found here and also in other parts of Cambrian.

The tract houses were built beginning in 1957, heavy construction in the area in the early 1960s and going to about 1973.  One older house is said to date to 1900 and a few properties were built later than 1980.  Most houses have been at least somewhat updated with newer roofs, windows, and interior remodeling. A few have been very extensively remodeled or rebuilt (and look amazing).

Lot sizes for these houses average 7200 to 7800 SF, but there’s a very wide range.  In much of San Jose, a suburban parcel might be just 6,000 SF, so this feels wonderfully uncrowded.  Some streets are tree lined, others have young trees.  A few roads have too many cars, but most do not.

Look at a sample of houses from this part of Cambrian:

 

Lone Hill Highlands neighborhood house

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The house below has newer windows, but notice the boards just below the roof and how they are scalloped. Charming!

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Westchester Manor, a part of the Alta Vista neighborhood

Like many Cambrian neighborhoods, the Westchester Manor subdivision in the Alta Vista area includes well kept homes and yards, tree lined streets, and wonderful public schools. This neighborhood, though, is unique in that residents can amble to the elementary or middle school without crossing major streets. And the same can be said of getting to the local grocery store, Safeway, Starbucks, and more.

For home buyers seeking walkability or easy access, this is a place to check out! But it’s not just walkable. From here it’s an easy jump to both Highway 85 off Union Avenue or a run to Vasona Lake County Park and downtown Los Gatos via Blossom Hill Road. Add to that the close proximity of the hills and you get the feeling that you’re not quite in the middle of a city at all.

Where is Westchester Manor?

Westchester Manor map - Alta Vista area of Cambrian in San Jose CA

Pins indicate homes within the Westchester Manor subdivision beside Union Middle School near Alta Vista Elementary School. The yellow line follows the power line.

Westchester Manor is within the Alta Vista neighborhood.

The Alta Vista neighborhood is part San Jose’s Cambrian district, and also part Los Gatos (see a map of the neighborhood and municipal boundaries in the blog post linked). It’s bordered by Los Gatos-Almaden Road to the north, Union to the east, and Blossom Hill to the south.

The Westchester Manor subdivision is entirely within San Jose on the northeast end of the neighborhood, next to Union Middle School.

This neighborhood has a very high owner occupancy rate – 87% from the numbers I pulled from Realist (a report available to members of the MLS) recently. It’s a low-turnover, stable neighborhood. People move in, and they stay!

What are the homes like in Westchester Manor?

This is a predominantly “ranch style” neighborhood with mostly single story houses, but still quite a few two story ones, in an area with sidewalks, curbs, and gutters. Most houses have 3-4 bedrooms and 2-3 full bathrooms.

There are 3 tracts named within this subdivision. They don’t have exciting labels but instead are called tracts 1481, 1903, and 1997. There are 30-35 lots in each one and 106 in all.

There’s variation in age, but not much. Of the 106 homes which are part of Westchester Manor (there are smaller subdivisions on Coronet that aren’t) approximately 80% were built between 1957 and 1959 although some in tract 1997 (including and near Grey Court) were built as late as 1965 (I found one house built in 1956 also). Most of them have been at least somewhat updated and a handful were rebuilt with new construction in 1980 and 1990.

Home sizes range with the smallest homes at 1,283 SqFt, 1,293 SqFt, 1,308 SqFt, and 1,319 SqFt. The biggest houses are 3,656 SqFt, 3,607 SqFt, 3,171 SqFt, and 3,072 SqFt. The median home size is 1,738 SqFt.

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2156 Ebbesen Ave San Jose, CA 95124

SALE PENDING WITH 6 OFFERS!
Closing Monday, May 10th.

f you are house hunting in Cambrian Park, there’s a gem of an opportunity at 2156 Ebbesen Avenue in the Villa Cambrian subdivision (Parker area) near Union Avenue and 85. This charming home is located on a quiet street  and has been beautifully updated throughout. It’s updated throughout and enjoys highly prized Union Schools.  Fantastic commute location, too!

Family Room at 2156 Ebbesen Avenue, San Jose (Cambrian)

Quick facts on 2156 Ebbesen Avenue

  • Offered at $1,423,000
  • 4 bedrooms (1 used as an office with French door & built in bookshelves)
  • 2 updated bathrooms – the hall bathroom enjoys a deep, jetted bath
  • 1457 SF (per county records) of living space
  • Lot size 5911 SF (per county records, plat map shows lot as 60’x100′)
  • Built in 1965
  • single story home – just one step into the family room
  • attached 2 car garage with storage space & pull down ladder

This updated home has many upgrades!

  • updated kitchen with maple cabinets & Corian counter with breakfast bar
  • large, sunny living room
  • family room with gas log fireplace & built in bookshelves
  • screened in porch for indoor / outdoor living off the family room
  • beautiful engineered Brazilian cherry floors in living areas & hallway
  • fresh carpet in all 4 bedrooms
  • dual pane windows
  • central  air conditioning
  • 2 sun tunnels
  • loads of storage, including a large storage shed in backyard

 

Kitchen at Ebbesen

Schools for 2156 Ebbesen Avenue

Carlton Elementary – Union School District
Union Middle School – Union School District
Leigh High School – Campbell Union High School District

View all the photos and get more info at CambrianHomeSale.com

 

Villa Cambrian subdivision in Cambrian’s Parker area

The Villa Cambrian neighborhood in San Jose enjoys direct access to Hogue Park with its many amenities and enormous lawn. It also offers great proximity to major commute routes, shopping, employment centers, doctor and dental offices, bus routes, Harker preschool, and just about everything else. This subdivision stretches from Union Avenue on the east to Houge Park on the west an runs along Barrett Avenue and includes a few other streets, including part of Esther Drive. The area near the park is generally referred to as the Parker area.

 

Map of the Villa Cambrian area in San Jose

 

There are 153 ranch style houses in the Villa Cambrian subdivision, which were built between 1960 and 1965. They range in size from 1222 SF to 2800 SF, and most homes  are around 1222 -1457 square feet. The lots or parcels run from the smallest size of 5509 SF to more than 10,000 SF; most are less than 7000 SF, though.

Something unique and much appreciated by privacy lovers: all but 1 are single story houses.

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Scottsdale 2 and Coronado subdivisions in Cambrian area of San Jose

Cambrian subdivisions Scottsdale 2 and Coronado

On the northeast side of the Cambrian district in San Jose, just west of the Robertville area, there’s a nice pocket which has the 95118 zip code but the Union School District (most of 95118 has San Jose Unified schools). In fact, it’s right next to the school district boundary, so homes just a little east of here will be in San Jose Unfied, with lower performing schools and lower prices. This is a very goodvalue area” for how much home you can buy with really nicely performing public schools!

Within this area there are a few really outstanding subdivisions.  Two of them are adjacent to each other and share many of the same amenities, such as walkability to the nearby Lunardi’s grocery store and other shops, so it’s helpful to view them together:  Scottsdale 2, which is in three sections on different sides of Meridian and Branham, and Coronado, which fits like a puzzle piece around one end of the Scottsdale 2 tract.

Scottsdale 2

Many, but not all, of the Scottsdale 2 houses have streets that begin with “Calle de”. With good sized rooms and comfortable floor plans, the Scottsdale 2 homes feel younger than they are. Built between 1973 and 1976, the 383 houses there average a comfortable 1807 square feet (range is 1426 to about 2500 with one other which is more than 3000 SF) with mixed single and double story floor plans.  The average lot size is around 6600 SF, but some are as small as 5500 SF and others larger than 10,000 SF.

Major plusses are the more open floorplans than are typically seen in Cambrian, good sized home and room, walkability, good public schools and something infrequently found in Cambrian: underground power lines.  It is so nice to not see wires everywhere!

Streets included:

Calle De Aida
Calle De Arroyo
Calle De Farrar
Calle De Gilda
Calle De Lucia
Calle De Stuarda
Calle De Tosca
Casa De Ponselle
Corte De Boleyn
Corte De Callas
Corte De Medea
Corte De Moffo
Corte De Pons
Corte De Tebaldi
Corte De Thais
Ilikai Ave
Tampico Way
Via De Caballe

What do homes cost in the Scottsdale 2 neighborhood?

Prices range tremendously, even for the same floorplan, based on exact location, lot size, remodeling, permits (or lack of them), and of course marketing. Photos are a home’s first “open house” and good photographs with good staging can make an enormous difference in the level of qualified buyer traffic and the ultimate sale price of the home. Smaller homes with small lots and needing remodeling will sell for the low million dollars, perhaps around $1.25 mil at the low end, but those which are bigger, highly remodeled (with permits and finals) and professionally marketed with professional photography will command a premium and sell for $1.7 million or more.

 

Scottsdale 2 subdivision

 

Here’s a closer view of one of the one story houses in Scottsdale 2.

 

Scottsdale 2 house

 

Coronado

The Coronado area is slightly smaller of a subdivision.   It consists of 238 houses which were built in 1967 and 1968. The houses and lots are just a little bigger than the larger Scottsdale 2 subdivision.

The home sizes in the Coronado tract range from 1579 square feet to 2500 SF in most cases (a small handful are bigger) to and the average home is 1981 square feet & average lot size 7021 SF.

Streets included:

Durango Court
El Roble Court
La Paz Court
Las Cruces Court
Luning Drive
Portobello Drive
Puebla Court
Rio Verde Drive
Sutcliff Avenue
Tampico Way
Yucatan Way

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