The San Jose Real Estate Market Analysis

San Jose Real Estate MarketThe San Jose real estate market remains in a red hot seller’s market through late-spring, though we appear to be just past the peak of the season.

First, some quick data from my RE Report and hand-pulled from the MLS today. There appears to be a small amount of under- or over-counting between the RE Report and MLS Listings, so numbers vary slightly between the two, but the data is still useful for trend tracking.

  • The May 2024 sale price to list price ratio for San Jose single family homes slipped to 110.0% of asking, that’s -1.0% from last month per the RE Report and +4.1% from this time 2023. For the MLS stats we pulled today, it shows 109.7% average, down from 111.0% (-1.3%) the month prior. Either way, the average home is selling consistently over list price in San Jose, though it appears to have passed the spring peak.
  • Home values for single family properties are up from this time last year by approximately 16%, and month-over-month closed sales prices rose by around 0% – 3% (RE Report, average and median prices).
  • The time on market slowed a hair month-over-month to a 13 day average (RE Report).
  • This May the RE Report shows a total of 322 active listings at the end of the month, but the hand-pulled data showed 445 active listings at the end of the month – why so different?! Well, the MLS data includes some listings that are not syndicated to sites like Redfin or Zillow, so the RE Report doesn’t include those. It is unusual that it would be so many listings that are not being syndicated, though! Note that some of these are likely in a “coming soon” phase and may eventually be syndicated at a later date, but not all.

Market Data: What Numbers Make a Difference

While we aren’t seeing the same market acceleration as we did at the peak, in some ways this market has been even more challenging for buyers. For most buyers, their ability to purchase has been severely impacted by higher rates on home loans and the changing insurance market. But the biggest hurdle for most buyers is the extreme and persistent lack of available homes!

Since March 2023 San Jose has frequently had record breaking low inventory, often marking new lows with the fewest available listings by month in over a decade. Though we’ve begun seeing hints of improvement in inventory by late spring 2024 it doesn’t look like we’re anywhere near catching up with “normal” levels – there’s still far too low inventory for the demand!

Why such low inventory?

While in a more typical market we might have a number of sellers looking to “move up” or downsize, most homeowners today couldn’t afford to move or don’t want to take on a higher-rate mortgage. Now it seems like a higher percentage of the listings we are seeing comes from investors, people leaving the area, and sales by family after a death – cases where there is no pressure to repurchase or where selling is the only option. One exception we’re starting to see is homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages who don’t have the same low rate incentive to hold on to their current home. Still, that limits significantly what is available to buyers!

Although inventory remains near record-breaking lows with higher demand than availability, sale prices and overbids are not necessarily breaking records like last year’s spring peak. Many buyers are experiencing significantly more pressure from higher interest rates, fluctuating stocks, looming layoffs, and other factors limiting purchase power and lowering confidence. That said, not every home will face the same challenges – there are loads of micro markets that influence how well any given home does, and decent homes that are marketed appropriately still regularly become bidding wars for driven buyers. All said, take this city-wide data with a grain of salt.

 

Inventory - San Jose CA listings of houses / Single Family Homes for sale

 

Inventory remains severely low – currently showing the 3rd lowest May inventory over the last decade. If you’re an active home buyer, it is slim pickings, though there are more options now than there were any month last year!

The data below in the “trends” chart is from our Real Estate Report for the City of San Jose.

San Jose Real Estate Market Trends at a Glance (RE Report)

 

Trends At a GlanceMay 2024Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,780,000 (+0.1%)$1,778,000$1,525,000 (+16.7%)
Average Price$1,905,890 (+2.9%)$1,852,680$1,640,370 (+16.2%)
No. of Sales421 (+20.6%)349340 (+23.8%)
Pending336 (-0.6%)338301 (+11.6%)
Active322 (+28.8%)250228 (+41.2%)
Sale vs. List Price110.0% (-1.0%)111.2%105.7% (+4.1%)
Days on Market13 (+18.7%)1120 (-36.2%)
Days of Inventory23 (+10.5%)2120 (+14.1%)

 

Available inventory has grown leaps and bounds from where it was this time last year, and both pending and closed sales have also risen well above 2023 numbers. Demand is extremely high! The chart clearly shows a strong seller’s market that’s extremely active, but things are cooling of ever so slightly. Keep reading below for more data and market analysis.

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The Buena Vista neighborhood of San Jose

Map of the Buena Vista neighborhood in San JoseIf you love older residential areas with classic architecture and a canopy of street trees, you’ll want to know about the Buena Vista neighborhood in San Jose.

Situated between downtown San Jose and the Valley Fair & Santana Row areas, there’s a lot going on that’s not far away.

Buena Vista neighborhood location

Where is Buena Vista? Roughly, it includes areas north of Hwy 280, south of San Carlos, east of Leigh and west of Meridian. It is considered part of Central San Jose by the local MLS.

The eastern half of the area is in the 95126 zip code, and the western section is in the 95128 zip code.

Nearby neighborhoods include Burbank, Shasta – Hanchett Park, Sunol – Midtown, and Rose Garden on the north side of 280. South of 280 lies Willow Glen and the Sherman Oaks neighborhood.

What are homes like in the Buena Vista neighborhood?

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