Condominiums and townhouses in Santa Clara County have enjoyed rapid appreciation and almost perfectly steady improvement in the market in the last 18 months or so. Today we’ll take a snapshot view of it with a few graphs. First, let’s consider the average Days on Market (DOM) and the sale price to list price ratio for condos and townhouses in Santa Clara County.
The chart above shows some calming down in the Santa Clara County condo market. First, it appears that the sale price to list price ratio stopped its wild ascent and has reversed itself some in June 2013. But also, it seems that the days to sell leveled out (and stopped its decline). Just to check on the apparent trend, I went to MLSListings and ran the numbers for the closed sales just yesterday and today (July closings). The average sale price to list price was 106%, a tad lower than what we saw in June.
What about new inventory vs sold homes? In the chart below, we see that the gap between them widened in June: more inventory, fewer sales (of course the June sales were contracts ratified in May, in most cases). This also suggests a loosening in the condo market here. It’s not suddenly a buyer’s market, but perhaps we are seeing the beginning of a trend reversal? Have a look at the chart:
Finally, the ratio between all available inventory (not just new listings) and what sold & closed in each month. The wider the gap, the softer the market. The smaller the gap, the stronger of a seller’s market it is. As you can see, June 2013 saw a very noticeable gap widening.
Remember that the red bar is active and pending combined. It is possible that some sales hit a slowdown and are merely pending a little longer – perhaps the jiggling interest rates had an impact? Taken by itself, this is just a sign to pay attention.
Is it all that bad? Maybe yes, maybe not so much. Some stats can be confusing. Our local MLS, MLSListings.com, includes pending sales in which the contingencies have not yet been removed as “active” and those are factored into the months of inventory. I prefer to look at just those homes which a buyer can truly purchase as available (and not having to hope that the current transaction falls through). Here are the numbers I’m seeing:
Available (no contract, status 1) condos & townhomes in the county: 420
Pending (with and without contingencies): 652 (of those 359 have no contingencies so are expected to close)
Closed in the last 30 days: 416
To get the months of inventory, we divide the available by the closed, so 420 by 416 – what we have is a hair shy of one month of inventory. Not dire at all!!