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Transitional market

Some segments of the Silicon Valley real estate market seem to have entered a transitional market phase. We’ll go over what that means and what is expected below.

What is a transitional market?

A transitional real estate market is underway when shifts happen in the buyer – seller dynamic. It may not be a full change or reversal from seller’s market to buyer’s market, or vice versa, but the trajectory changes and expectations change, too.


Transitional market - a change in the balance of power between home sellers and buyers


For the last 2+ years, the home sellers have had nearly all of the power. Homes have been selling fast, with many buyers bidding on available properties, with no contingencies, quick escrows, free rent backs, you name it. That’s been the case all over the country, but perhaps to a more extreme level here.

For example:

  • homes that sold with 21 offers a few months ago might sell with 3 – 5 offers (or perhaps just 1)
  • if properties were pending in 7 days on an “offer due date” last season, it may go to 10 days without a deadline
  • if sales were largely without contingencies, we may see them start to reappear
  • in extreme change from today, sellers may again pay for Section 1 termite work and repairs or even help with buyer loan costs by paying points

Price strategy change, too:

Right now, most homes are offered for sale at prices that those sellers may be unwilling to take. (My advice too my clients is to not list it lower than you’d actually take it if it takes a few weeks to sell and you get just one offer.) Listing agents know that if it’s priced attractively, it will get more offers and probably push the eventual price higher than what might be anticipated if the home were put on the market closer to the expected value.

In transitional markets, that gap between the list price and the sale price shrinks – we stop seeing mirage pricing that confuses many buyers. Listing agents may begin to advise sellers to list with “transparent pricing”, or what the sellers expect or want. Sellers may pay for rent backs – if they can still get them.

Conditions leading up to today

It is well known that our Bay Area housing market has been overheated to an extreme ever since Covid showed up. Prices accelerated at the fastest pace that most of us who’ve been selling homes for a long time had ever seen. Prices have roughly doubled since about 2015 or 2016. I’ve seen some neighborhoods where home prices rose 30% in less than 6 months.

Here’s a quick view of the median sale price of single family homes or houses since 2005.

San Jose Median Sale Price of Houses

Late 2017 seemed to just keep rising into 2018 without the seasonal break we often see in the second half of the year. Late 2018 and 2019 were cooler.  (In October 2018 I wrote about the cooling market.) We also had some cool-down blips in the second half of 2016 and the second half of 2014. The market heats up and it cools down.  But by how much is the question.

With interest rates rising, the stock market plummeting, inflation raging, and war in Europe, it’s no wonder if the market transitions. Most of us would say it’s overdue.

What is changing right now?


Santa Teresa real estate market

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose - the proximity of parks will impact the Santa Teresa real estate market for that neighborhood

Silver Leaf Park in the Santa Teresa area of San Jose

How’s the Santa Teresa real estate market? The scenic Santa Teresa area of San Jose is popular as it’s a bit more affordable but offers lovely views of the hills and public schools that seem to be improving over time, making the area more desirable. These positives seem to be helping that area to hold its value well. Here are a few details from the latest monthly market update for Santa Teresa single family homes (read the full analysis below):

  • The median and average sales prices are lower than the previous month but up 21.7% and 20.4% since April 2021 respectively.
  • Available inventory jumped from 2 in February to 10 in March and 15 in April – serious growth, but still not enough to match demand!
  • Days on the market held at 7 days for the second month in a row
  • The average sale to list price ratio slipped a hair to 118.1% – the list price often is a bit of a price mirage right now

Santa Teresa (our MLS Area 2)  includes a small bit of the 95123 zip code, which is more expensive, but most of that zip code is Blossom Valley, so we will omit it. The 95138 zip code is about half Santa Teresa and half Evergreen (more expensive area), so take those numbers with a big grain of salt. I find the 95119 zip code to be most helpful, but even then, the school district is divided between Oak Grove and Morgan Hill.

Weekly update from Altos Research with a “market profile” of San Jose’s Santa Teresa area, zip code 95119 for single family homes / houses:

When there’s not enough data, the fields will be blank.

Santa Teresa of San Jose 95119 Real-Time Market Profile

With this week’s update the chart is holding strong in a seller’s market. But with just 4 active listings that’s not much to analyze! Small pools of data can make trend tracking less accurate. Sales are happening at breakneck speeds with an average of just 4 days on market! Altos shows a prolonged strong seller’s market in Santa Teresa 95119!

Weekly update from Altos Research with look at a glance of zip code 95138 for single family homes or houses:


The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The Monte Sereno real estate market is similar to Los Gatos, but distinct - Monte Sereno shares many features with Los Gatos but is a distinct cityHow is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 4,000 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. This article is updated monthly with new data and analysis, so scroll down to read the latest and check back regularly. Here are a few details from the latest market update:

  • Monte Sereno is currently in a strong seller’s market with hardly any inventory – just 7 homes for sale at the end of April.
  • April sales to list price ratio remains high at an average of 116.6% of asking.
  • Prices are looking up about 20% – 30% from last year, but that’s based on an extremely limited pool of sales.

There are ALMOST no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno (the MLS shows 6 closed sales in this category around Monte Sereno total – going back to 1998!). One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (an online pdf):

Below is a quick market profile for Monte Sereno. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.

Monte Sereno Altos Real-Time Market Profile


Altos Research does weekly reports, to which I subscribe. You can see the full weekly report for Monte Sereno HERE and you can click the subscribe button there if you’d like to get it weekly (or navigate to another zip code or city and subscribe to that). Here’s the data on home descriptions per price quartile in the report, updated automatically throughout the month:

Median List Price for Monte Sereno By Altos


Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicHow’s Cambrian Park condo & townhouse market? Normally we answer this question in brief with regular monthly updates over on the Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update. However with fantastic neighborhoods like Montanas de Los Gatos, Cambrian condos are not to be missed! So today we’ll take a closer look at the condominium and townhome market in this popular San Jose district!

Before we dive in, let’s see what’s selling now in the Cambrian Park condo & townhouse  segment of the market.

Just now (as of May 12, 2022), I looked into the MLS to see the condo and townhome sales in Cambrian over the last month.

  • there are 13 units listed for sale as “active” (not pending or under contract)
    • 8 are listed as condos (3 are “agent only” status) – average size is 894 SF and average list price is $673,111 4
    • 5 are listed as townhouses (2 are “agent only” status) – average size is 1574 SF and average list price is $1,168,800
  • 1 home is under contract with one or more contingencies
  • 13 homes are pending with no contingencies (average of 9 days on market, 4 condos, 9 townhomes)
  • 13 condos / townhomes have sold and closed escrow in the last 30 days (9 condos, 4 townhomes)
    • They sold with an average of 6 days on market (condos 5 days, townhomes 8)
    • average sale price to list price ratio was 116% (range 98% – 129%, condominiums averaged 113%, townhouses 122%)


Now let’s have a look at some of the numbers from my Real Estate Report:

Real Estate Report: Cambrian Park Condo & Townhouse Market – San Jose

It’s a hot spring market for the Cambrian condo market with prices up double digits over a year ago. This chart represents all of MLS Area 14, which is primarily 95124, a good deal of 95118, and a tiny sliver of Campbell 95008.

Trends At a GlanceApr 2022Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$730,000 (-2.7%)$750,000$622,000 (+17.4%)
Average Price$883,084 (+2.3%)$863,467$691,900 (+27.6%)
No. of Sales13 (-13.3%)1514 (-7.1%)
Pending13 (+18.2%)1115 (-13.3%)
Active(+75.0%)414 (-50.0%)
Sale vs. List Price112.9% (+1.9%)110.8%102.7% (+10.0%)
Days on Market(+6.5%)612 (-43.8%)
Days of Inventory16 (+95.2%)829 (-46.2%)


Altos Research Live Charts

The market profiles are live, updating automatically once every week, with active inventory from MLS listings.

Most of Cambrian Park falls under the 95124 zip code.  Here’s a quick look at the main real estate market data points for Cambrian 95124 this week:


Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics

Leo or Leona - the mascot of Los GatosThe Los Gatos real estate market trends are leaning heavily in the sellers’ favor. Inventory has been rising and this may be changing, but as of April, prices continue to go up.

  • The median sale price was $3,651,000 (+9.0% from the month before) and up 35% from last year.
  • The average sale price was $3,606,330 (+0.4% from March) and up 20.7% from a year ago.
  • The sale to list price ratio rose further to 118.2% (+1.5% from March). It was 106.5% a year ago.
  • Days on market shrunk to 7, inventory grew, and the days of inventory are now 31. This indicates a little improvement for the buyers can be anticipated, but it is still a very hot seller’s market.

This post will include info from both Altos Research, which uses LIST prices, and the RE Report, which uses listing and closed sale data, for the “in town” areas (95030 and 95032).

Related: Why is inventory so low, and when will it get better?

From ALTOS – a view of LG 95030 (these are updated automatically a few times a month):

Altos Real-Time Market Profile Los Gatos, CA SFH 95030

And 95032:


San Jose CA 95129 Real Estate Market Info

The 95129 area of San Jose, which is sometimes referred to as the “Cupertino Border” area and is generally part of “West San  Jose”, is highly desirable due to the excellent school scores in the Cupertino School District (which much of this zip code enjoys – but not all), well maintained homes and great commute location to companies such as Apple (headquartered in Cupertino).

The rest of this zip code has Campbell schools, making it more affordable and also very desireable as a close in commute location.

Today we’ll consider the real estate market activity for houses in this area today and in relation to recent history.

This data  will be automatically updated by Altos Research (to which I have a subscription) weekly. Altos uses list prices, not sales or sold prices, FYI.

San Jose 95129 Market Profile


Median List Price San Jose 95129


Inventory of Single Family Homes for Sale in San Jose CA 95129



Houses for sale or under contract in West San Jose 95129

Below are some or all (if just a few) single family homes for sale in San Jose 95129. Some of these will be have Cupertino schools and some will have Campbell schools.


  • List View
  • Map View
  • Grid View

See all 95129.
(all data current as of 5/24/2022)

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.




City of Santa Clara real estate market

Santa Clara real estate market - The Santa Clara Women's Club

The Santa Clara Women’s Club (old adobe house)

The real estate market in the city of Santa Clara, like the rest of Silicon Valley, is one in which the sellers have a strong upper hand and it continues to be impacted by rising prices and heightened demand. Buyers are seemingly going crazy over this part of Silicon Valley right now!

  • The April sale to list price ratio is a red hot 118.2% of asking.
  • April had just 29 active listings at the end of the month, but 52 closed sales and 65 pending sales for single family houses!
  • The average days of inventory (or market absorption) was just 16, and the days on market was 9, so extremely quick turnover

Prices in Santa Clara are astronomical. I grew up in that city and am amazed to see that the average and median sales price there are now hovering around $2 million!

The Real Estate Market for the City of Santa Clara

Below there are charts for the market activity over the last few months for single family homes in Santa Clara. Market activity has been high for months, and low inventory from the past two years with continuous low inventory around the rest of the Valley means there is still a greater demand to fill than properties available. Further down in the article, we’ll check in on the condo market, too.

First, a market profile, automatically updated weekly, for the city of Santa Clara (these reports are available by zip code, too, and for condos/townhomes as well as single family dwellings). Check out the weekly Altos report HERE and click on subscribe to get weekly updates on all of Santa Clara or any particular zip code. (Scroll to the bottom and check out the profile of houses across 4 pricing quartiles – super interesting.)


Santa Clara Real-Time Market Profile

According to Altos, it’s a strong seller’s market right now with elevated market action rising through early spring, low median days on market, and a slight increase in perpetually low inventory.

Data from my Real Estate Report

Next, stats at a glance for the Santa Clara real estate market for single family homes. There’s a glitch with our usual system that generates the statistics and trends, so the numbers might not be exact but the trend tracking is still accurate.

Looking back, 2020 began with a hotter than usual winter market getting progressively hotter towards spring. Things started to change after March 2020 and the market was hit with some significant cooling at the start of shelter-in-place. As the country began to open up, easing restrictions for realty sales, all that pent up demand fired up the market!

High demand and low inventory have been fueling a blazing hot market in Santa Clara over the last couple of years. There was no winter cool down here. Normally we don’t include the market heat charts from the RE Report, but the December 2021 spike was so striking that I wanted to include it. It’s a quick view of why it’s so hard for buyers to buy here, and so easy for sellers to sell right now. That chart can be viewed larger by clicking on it, or visit my RE Report page for Santa Clara stats here.

Santa Clara real estate market graph from the RE Report


Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceApr 2022Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$1,920,000 (-2.5%)$1,970,000$1,640,000 (+17.1%)
Average Price$2,068,930 (+3.1%)$2,007,080$1,608,630 (+28.6%)
No. of Sales52 (-1.9%)5352 (0.0%)
Pending65 (-8.5%)7166 (-1.5%)
Active29 (+20.8%)2433 (-12.1%)
Sale vs. List Price118.2% (-4.9%)124.4%109.2% (+8.2%)
Days on Market(+4.8%)917 (-45.1%)
Days of Inventory16 (+19.1%)1418 (-12.1%)



Saratoga CA Real Estate Market Update

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California - photo for article on the Saratoga CA real estate market

Orchard and Hills in Saratoga, California

The Saratoga CA real estate market today is strongly in the seller’s favor with huge price increases from a year ago. There are a few hints of calming, but barely any, in Saratoga right now.

Some quick stats from the RE Report:

  • The sales to list price ratio is 115.2% , which is down 2.3% from the month (very slight cooling) before and up 8.9% from the year before.
  • Available inventory remains low at 23. Last month it was 18, and last year it was 33. Inventory does typically rise between March and April. Historically it is still quite low.
  • The median sale price was $4,100,000 (+7.2% over last month’s $3,825,500) , which is a huge jump up from a year before ( April 2021 it was $3,100,000, a change of +32.3%)
  • The average sale price was  $4,217,770 (+7.4% over the prior month’s $3,926,940 ). In April 2021 it was $3,366,030 (+25.3% from then to now)

How’s the Saratoga real estate market?

Saratoga has a diverse real estate market due to a wide range of home prices, square footage, lot sizes, school districts, and more. The luxury tier, generally $4 million and up (but in Saratoga, that’s really still just a house in an expensive zip code) normally moves slower than other price points. Saratoga’s entry level housing is usually the strongest. If the numbers swing wildly at any given month, it could be that more or fewer homes in a particular school district and pricing tier.

First, a quick glance at the Altos Research market profile for a quick summary of the market conditions. Altos uses LIST prices, not sold prices, for this chart and the others, below.


Real-Time Market Profile Saratoga, CA 95070

Next, let’s turn to the closed sales from last month. This time we’re using data from a subscription service of mine to the RE Report.

Here are the real estate sales statistics for closed sales last month among houses and duet homes (if there are any) in the 95070 zip code. Bottom line is that most livable homes in Saratoga will run between $3 and $4 million if they are mid sized (2000-3000 SF) and in the best schools area (Saratoga or Cupertino). Homes in the Campbell schools area, which have very strong elementary and middle schools, are fewer and generally more affordable, closer to $2 – $3 million (and occasionally lower), but depending on size, condition, and location they can be significantly higher.

Trends at a Glance for the Saratoga CA Real Estate Market

Data below is from the ReReport.

Many homes, though not all, are selling at least $500,000 over list price. Some are selling more than $1 million over.

Trends At a GlanceApr 2022Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$4,100,000 (+7.2%)$3,825,500$3,100,000 (+32.3%)
Average Price$4,217,770 (+7.4%)$3,926,940$3,366,030 (+25.3%)
No. of Sales31 (+40.9%)2237 (-16.2%)
Pending46 (-14.8%)5435 (+31.4%)
Active23 (+27.8%)1833 (-30.3%)
Sale vs. List Price115.2% (-2.3%)117.9%105.7% (+8.9%)
Days on Market10 (-10.1%)1118 (-46.8%)
Days of Inventory22 (-12.3%)2526 (-16.8%)


Altos Research – list prices for Saratoga CA 95070 (more…)

Sunnyvale real estate market trends & statistics

The Sunnyvale real estate market is appreciating at an incredibly fast rate. The month over month changes might be reflective of appreciation in a normal  year.

Here are a few quick points from the single family home market below:

  • The sale to list price ratio rose higher again, with homes selling on average at 121.8% (+0.2% from last month, +18.2% from a year ago)
  • Days on market were at 9 in April, down from 14 in March and down from 10 a year ago.
  • The average sale price was $2,607,490 (-7.2% from March 2022 and +17.6% from April 2021)
  • The median sale price was $2,600,000 (-4.7% from last month and +17.6%  from last year)
  • Active listings shrunk again, and sat at 33 at the end of April (down from 35 in March and 40 from April 2021)

The bottom line is that there’s not enough inventory but it seems like every potential buyer wants to get a home ASAP, before interest rates rise any further and before stocks tank any further.

The Real Estate Report numbers for Sunnyvale (entire city), single family homes

PLEASE visit our ReReport page for data here, throughout Santa Clara County, and also for San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties.

(If you’re viewing this on a mobile phone, swipe horizontally to see the full chart if it goes off the screen.)

Sunnyvale realty market statistics: down month over month, but up substantially year over year

Trends At a GlanceApr 2022Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$2,600,000 (-4.7%)$2,729,000$2,200,000 (+18.2%)
Average Price$2,607,490 (-7.2%)$2,808,450$2,216,720 (+17.6%)
No. of Sales65 (+47.7%)4463 (+3.2%)
Pending107 (-5.3%)11373 (+46.6%)
Active33 (-5.7%)3540 (-17.5%)
Sale vs. List Price121.8% (+0.2%)121.5%114.0% (+6.9%)
Days on Market(-35.0%)1410 (-5.2%)
Days of Inventory15 (-38.3%)2418 (-20.0%)


You may also want to see how Sunnyvale stacks up to other communities in Santa Clara County. If so, click to see the PDF Real Estate Report for Santa Clara County, updated monthly.


Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics

Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics on Mary Pope-Handy's Valley of Heart's Delight blogMountain View’s real estate market has cooled just a little bit as compared to March, but remains far stronger than it was in April 2022. One month does not a trend make, so let’s see how it goes in May.

  • Prices are down month-over-month 8-13% but up 17% – 21% year over year
  • Properties are selling quickly with 11 days on the market, however, this is up from last month’s mere 8 days on the market.
  • The sales to list price ratio cooled to 116.2% of asking, which is still very hot, but also hints to things calming down.

Many home sales here are powered by the stock market, and most stocks are faring poorly now. At some point, this will impact what buyers can or will do, and prices should level off or decline at that point.

The Mountain View Real Estate Market

How’s the Mountain View CA real estate market? This is one of the hottest areas within Silicon Valley and is home to a myriad of high tech companies and is a stone’s throw from others. With a charming and walk-able downtown, easy access to CalTrain, and a vibrant atmosphere conducive to both work and play, it is no wonder that people relocating to the San Francisco Bay Area or Silicon Valley place Mountain View squarely in their target. (Also popular are adjacent municipalities: Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Los Altos, and Palo Alto.)

Overview of the city of Mountain View’s residential real estate market for houses:

First let’s have a look at the Real Estate Report with sales data taken directly from the MLS. These numbers for April are softer than they were for March, but still up substantially as compared to April 2021.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a GlanceApr 2022Previous MonthYear-over-Year
Median Price$3,005,000 (-13.4%)$3,468,500$2,480,000 (+21.2%)
Average Price$3,039,820 (-8.5%)$3,323,430$2,588,920 (+17.4%)
No. of Sales24 (+9.1%)2253 (-54.7%)
Pending50 (+4.2%)4829 (+72.4%)
Active25 (+8.7%)2322 (+13.6%)
Sale vs. List Price116.2% (-3.8%)120.8%108.9% (+6.7%)
Days on Market11 (+30.1%)816 (-30.3%)
Days of Inventory30 (-3.7%)3112 (+150.9%)