Yesterday on my way home from a final walk through on a property in Blossom Valley, I stopped by some open houses – following signs, just like a lot of consumers do. At one of the homes I spoke with a Realtor who’s starting to see a slowing in the real estate market. That hasn’t been my own experience, so I asked him about his take on things and he mentioned the rising inventory in areas where he’s active in Silicon Valley.
There are many ways to get a pulse on the market, but perhaps one of the easiest ways to check it is to see the sale price to list price ratio and the days on market. MLSListings, my local multiple listing service (of which I am a member), does some wonderful things with interactive graphs and charts, so I made use of that tool to see how San Jose is faring as a whole and also in some of the zip codes where I sometimes sell homes. The charts below are for single family homes (not condos, townhomes, duplexes, etc.) and are by zip code for all price ranges. Remember, stats are easily skewed one way or the other, and we might have seen different results if we teased it out by home size, lot size, school district, price point, presence of an in-ground pool, or any other factors. This is the “big picture”. First, then, San Jose as a whole.
What we see here is that homes are selling faster (shorter and shorter DOM or Days on Market) and a rising sales price to list price ratio. Both of these indicate a strong seller’s market for the city of San Jose as a whole. Next, we’ll list a sampling of zip codes in San Jose, primarily along the west side (where I tend to be more active in my sales) but not exclusively so. I’m putting these in numerical order.
In San Jose’s 95112 zip code, which is Downtown San Jose, it’s a mixed bag. The sale price to list price ratio is rising (seller’s market) but the days on market are also rising (softening market). This area would require more information – it could be that a few homes have been on the market for a very long time and skewing the stats, or homes in certain price points are just not selling. From this vantage, though, it looks like 95112 is mixed.
Next: 95117, 95118, 95120, 95123, 95125, 95126, 15129, 95136, 95148
The 95117 area is a westside neighborhood, near San Tomas and 280 and extending over to about the Winchester Mystery House and Santana Row neighborhood. this is a hugely popular area and the sale price to list price ratio is stratospheric at about 113%. The days on market have bounced around a bit in the last couple of months but are generally at around 10 days, so even with a little up and down, this is rapid for home sales. Strong seller’s market!
The 95118 zip code is about 1/3 of the Cambrian Park area. Here days on market are holding fairly steady at around 14 days and the sp to lp ratio is climbing but at a slowing rate, with the current ratio being at 105.4% or so. Hot! But not as hot as the 97117 area!
95120 represents the Almaden Valley in south western San Jose. It’s a pricier area with several different school districts involved, and even within the San Jose Unified area, a big difference between values near Pioneer High and Leland High (tied in part, at least, to school academic scores). It’s a cooler market in Almaden – a little further from the high tech companies. If we get more high tech – and more businesses generally – moving to downtown San Jose, it will greatly improve home values in this area, which for many seems just a little remote right now.
The 95123 area is part of Blossom Valley (along with 95136). This area is showing some cooling but is still a seller’s market.
95124 is the lion’s share of Cambrian (together with 95118). The Union School District scores have been increasing over the years, making this area highly desirable and the market there extremely competitive for buyers at the moment. This chart does imply noticeable cooling in 95124 as both the days on market and sale price to list price ratio trends are showing movement toward more normalcy. Even so, the best homes which are priced aggressively are getting multiple offers right now. If these trends increase, though, we could be seeing a return to a more balanced market.
The 95125 zip code represents Willow Glen, a charming area not far from downtown San Jose with lovely old architecture and popular downtown of its own. Willow Glen remains hot!
Central San Jose is an area which includes diverse areas such as The Rosegarden, Burbank, Shasta-Hanchett and lovely older homes in the St. Leo’s area. Although it’s still a seller’s market, the sale price to list price ratio is falling (about 102% now, so still “hot”) and the days on market are at 47. However, there are some homes which may be throwing the stats. This is a mixed area with some lavish high end homes and some smaller, neglected properties which could be called “bulldozers” if they didn’t have historic importance attached to them. This is another region which would require more investigating to see if it’s a neighborhood-by-neighborhood situation, a price point issue or what.
The 95129 area of San Jose is along the west side, and is adjacent to Cupertino. This zip code, like many in San Jose, is not all in one school district. Part of 95129 has Cupertino schools, and part does not. For our purposes today, we are getting a broad view of the market, but it would be interesting to know how these parts of the zip code are doing as compared to each other. For now, though, we can see that the sale price to list price ratio is unreal at 118%. The days on market are likewise super fast at 9. Not just hot – this area is “red hot”!
95136 has us back to Blossom Valley – this is the smaller portion of that area. The trends and ratios here are pretty similar overall to 95123. It’s a seller’s market but not wildly so.
The 95148 zip code is part of Evergreen. The market there is solid but had been cooler than much of the rest of San Jose until the last month or two, when it’s really picked up.
Overall, it looks like the sprawling City of San Jose remains a strong seller’s market, though in some areas we are seeing a slight softening as these two factors seem to be getting a little mitigated in some areas.
When selling or buying a home, it is best to get more detailed info than what is provided here. For example, if you were wanting to sell a home in Cambrian, 95124, it would be important to know what’s happening in your immediate area (home sales with same elementary school area, property size, lot size, condition etc.) Houses close to each other and similar in all ways but size may have very different responses from the public. In the last 2 weeks, in one area of Cambrian I’m aware that some homes got 6 offers and some more than 12, for instance. Some of it can be price, square footage, condition, etc.
If you are interested in selling your home, please contact me and we can discuss the market in your area. If we decide to work together, I will drill down the statistics for you so that you can make better informed decisions all the way through.
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(all data current as of 10/21/2018)
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.