Market Reports

Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Reports

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicOne of the best ways to get a pulse on the Cambrian Park real estate market is to see what’s selling fast. Sometimes a few low sales will make the market look more sluggish than it is. For the Cambrian housing market, though, most single family homes are selling well, with multiple offers, and overbids right now. But not all. So let’s separate them out by time and see how it looks.

Before we begin, it’s important to recognize how much has changed since the beginning of March, so this data is not going to be as relevant as it normally would be. This month we will have a better grasp over the pandemic’s affect on real estate, but it will take time to see the full picture. For more on the impact of the pandemic on the market, check out my post titled Coronavirus impact on real estate sales.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory for previous months. June numbers are accurate.

Fast sales are stronger sales: under 14 days is best for Cambrian Park realty sales 

Just now (as of July 10th) I pulled the single family home sales for Cambrian (mls area 14) for the last 30 days (mostly June but possibly some July) and saw a huge difference between the homes that sell fast and those that do not. The turning point seems to be 14 days on the market between overbids and underbids.

Out of 76 properties sold in the last 30 days, 61 of them or about 80% sold in 14 days or less, with the average days on market (DOM) for this group a lighting speed 5.4 days! For these fast selling homes the average list price $1,242,045 and average sale price $1,269,485 (averaging an overbid of $27,440 or approximately 102.2% of list price). A larger than usual number in that group, 21 total, sold below list price and 3 sold at list price. The majority, 37 properties, sold over asking.

Of the 15 slower sales, roughly 20%, were on the market between 15 and 152 days. Only 4 sold above list price, 1 at asking, and 10 sold below.

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Almaden View Real Estate Market Conditions San Jose 95120 - photo with Mt Umunhum in backgroundThe Almaden Valley real estate market conditions are favorable to sellers right now, though it’s taken some recent hits.

For sellers, there is an active market, though it’s shown signs of cooling. Sales are up, indicating that there’s plenty of demand, though inventory and sales are well below where they normally would be. All in all, the market is still in the seller’s favor, though not where we would have predicted it to be at the start of the year.

Before we begin, it’s important to recognize how much has changed since the beginning of March. Over time we will have a better grasp over the pandemic’s affect on the real estate market. For more on the impact of the pandemic on the market, check out my post titled Coronavirus impact on real estate sales.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory prior to June.

 

Almaden Valley months of inventory

Just now I logged onto the MLS. As of today (July 9th), there are 29 houses or duet homes (not duplexes, but attached single family homes) for sale in San Jose, CA 95120, aka Almaden Valley. Of those, 17 (or about 59%) are offered at under $2 million, which is a good deal less than last month. Dividing the whole up, 3 are listed under $1 million, 14 are between $1-2 million, 10 between $2-3 million, and 2 were offered over $3 million (one of these is over $4 million). In the last 30 days, 34 single family homes have closed in the same area – almost double last month when we checked. When we divide the active listings by the closed sales over 30 days, we get the months of inventory. So for Almaden, 29 divided by 34 = 0.85 months of inventory. That’s a firey hot seller’s market!

 

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions: Trends at a Glance

Next, a look at the residential real estate market statistics for Almaden, or San Jose 95120 from the Real Estate Report (a subscription that I have which uses closed / sold data). Inventory is down from last month and significantly below last year, but sales have risen sharply from last month, nearly catching up with 2019. The sales vs list price rose to 101.1% after falling a whopping 5.7% in April. It’s an active seller’s market and warming up.

Please find the current statistics for single family homes (houses & duet homes) from my Almaden Valley real estate report (click on link for more info).

 

Trends At a Glance Jun 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,685,000 (+5.3%) $1,600,000 $1,487,500 (+13.3%)
Average Price $1,797,950 (+12.8%) $1,594,620 $1,583,990 (+13.5%)
No. of Sales 32 (+146.2%) 13 34 (-5.9%)
Pending 42 (+23.5%) 34 21 (+100.0%)
Active 28 (-3.4%) 29 58 (-51.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.1% (+0.2%) 100.9% 99.5% (+1.7%)
Days on Market 23 (+91.2%) 12 20 (+18.1%)
Days of Inventory 25 (-62.1%) 67 49 (-48.7%)

 

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Evergreen area of San Jose (Silicon Valley)

The Evergreen area of San Jose is includes many newer homes and communities. It is a highly regarded Silicon Valley community as Evergreen is scenic and most of the district enjoys highly regarded schools, particularly at the elementary and middle school levels. In this article I’ll provide some info on this section of the valley and then offer information on the current real estate market trends there, and that part will be updated periodically.  Just want the Evergreen real estate market update? Please scroll down!

Evergreen Real Estate Market Report: Single Family Homes

Before we begin, if you’re looking to learn more about coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales please follow the link to my post on that subject. Since the changes effected to combat the spread of Covid-19 began mid-March, the March data will not reflect these changes to the market as strongly as April’s data will, but this is still just the tip of the iceberg. So take this month’s analysis with a grain of salt.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. Data for June is now accurate, however previous months will be affected by this pause.

The Re Report considers all of the Evergreen district together. Please find the full report on my Real Estate Report for the Evergreen area of San Jose. Further down, you’ll see live charts with more zip code specific details.

The Evergreen area warmed up a little in June. Sales more than doubled while inventory fell. The sales vs list price ratio dropped from 101.3% in April to 97.7% in May, but it rose back up to 100.2% in June. Sale prices rose and the days on market fell, more indications that the market’s heating up. It’s still a seller’s market!

 

Trends At a Glance Jun 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,505,000 (+37.1%) $1,097,500 $1,330,000 (+13.2%)
Average Price $1,643,090 (+21.0%) $1,357,990 $1,458,280 (+12.7%)
No. of Sales 34 (+183.3%) 12 34 (0.0%)
Pending 41 (0.0%) 41 43 (-4.7%)
Active 38 (-19.1%) 47 70 (-45.7%)
Sale vs. List Price 100.2% (+2.5%) 97.7% 101.2% (-1.0%)
Days on Market 23 (-35.5%) 35 26 (-11.4%)
Days of Inventory 32 (-72.4%) 118 60 (-45.7%)

Altos Research: Evergreen real estate market for single family homes or houses by zip code

 

95148

 

Evergreen of San Jose 95148 Real-Time Market Profile

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San Jose - Valley View 2019-1-20 - for the San Jose real estate marketThe San Jose real estate market is a strong seller’s market, but it’s experiencing mild unseasonable cooling this spring. We see this in the San Jose housing market data, below, but I’ve also seen it in my real estate practice.

Something to note, however, is that these charts will not reflect the full effect of the pandemic on the market. We have a better view of the impact this month, but it will take a while to see the full picture. For now, you can read about Coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales on my other post.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. June numbers are accurate, but disregard this data for previous months.

First please find the Altos Research Charts, a live feed of data on the housing markets in San Jose. You will then also find the RE Report, charts with statistics comparing sales in the last month and comparing them month-over-month and year-over-year. These are both the usual tools I use to gauge a market. Directly below are links to the market analysis of specific neighborhoods in San Jose. Some of these, where I work the most, are updated monthly, and others are updated every few months.

Altos Charts for the San Jose real estate market as a Whole – automatically updated each week – single family homes

First, the market profile and then the basic charts for single family homes or houses in San Jose. FYI, Altos uses LIST prices. The RE Report further down uses SOLD prices (which is part of the reason why I utilize both).

 

 

This real time market San Jose housing market profile (updated July 7th) shows on the graph an increase of inventory and steady decline in market action. San Jose is still in a strong seller’s market according to Altos. The Median List Price (for condos and houses combined) is approximately $1,250,000, remaining stable for three months in a row now.

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Morgan Hill land along the Uvas RiverHow is the Morgan Hill real estate market? This article will include data, trends and statistics for both houses/single family  homes and condominiums/townhouses (in the second half of the article).

If you’re looking to learn more about Coronavirus’ impact on real estate sales, please check my post on that subject. Though this month’s data is starting to give us a picture of the changes to the market, so we’re not going to see the full effect of the pandemic in this analysis.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. This will not affect June numbers, but will affect previous months data.

The cities of Morgan Hill and Gilroy are usually a bit less in demand than parts of Santa Clara County which are either tech magnets or closer to these big businesses. So if most of the Silicon Valley has a sale price to list price ratio of anywhere from 100% to 105%, it’s generally lower here, making the home buying conditions calmer for weary buyers, though still a sellers market. 

Market profile from Altos Research – this is updated weekly, so check back often! You can also view the weekly newsletter through the link below, where you can also subscribe to receive this update every week in your inbox. Prefer a particular zip code instead? You can type in your desired zip in the “Search Anywhere” line and then request that particular weekly update by email.

Altos Research weekly report for all of Morgan Hill

Altos weekly report for 95037 only

Altos weekly report for 95038 only

 

Morgan Hill Real-Time Market Profile

 

The latest Altos update (July 7th) shows increasing inventory and declining market action. The current market remains in at a slight seller’s advantage.

Trends at a Glance for Single Family Homes in Morgan Hill

Below is a chart with basic info, but to see more information, you may click on this link to see the Real Estate Report for Morgan Hill. Almost every sector is up from last month. Inventory fell from last month and is less than half of what it was a year ago. Sales and pending sales rose showing that it’s an active market. The sales vs list price also rose over 3% since last month. Generally it’s a warming seller’s market, albeit a little cooler than other areas.

 

Trends At a Glance Jun 2020 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,105,000 (+7.8%) $1,025,000 $1,035,000 (+6.8%)
Average Price $1,170,240 (+6.1%) $1,103,340 $1,176,720 (-0.6%)
No. of Sales 50 (+35.1%) 37 49 (+2.0%)
Pending 75 (+17.2%) 64 53 (+41.5%)
Active 44 (-22.8%) 57 123 (-64.2%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.8% (+2.2%) 97.6% 99.8% (-0.1%)
Days on Market 30 (-23.8%) 39 25 (+18.6%)
Days of Inventory 26 (-44.8%) 46 73 (-64.9%)

 

And the month before:

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Tudor style house on graphic that says - How's the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is still in a strong seller’s market, but like the rest of the county, has been in a period of cooling these past few months.

It’s hard to predict what’s coming up next with all that’s happened since March. The charts are beginning to show the impact of the pandemic on the market, but it will take a while to see the full picture. To read more about the Coronavirus impact on real estate sales, check my blog post on the topic.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory in previous months, though June numbers are now accurate.

If you’re selling, perhaps last summer you’d have gotten 4 – 6 offers on your well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced home for sale. Recently, we’ve started to see those numbers again as restrictions on the market ease. However, we are still seeing buyers bring in offers with normal contingencies, particularly if there are not any competing bids. With the restrictions on showings and real estate in general, these numbers may still be low, especially if there is delayed market activity from spring.

 

Here’s a quick view of the Campbell real estate market stats from Altos Research, using LIST prices:

 

Campbell Altos Real-Time Market Profile

As of July 7th this chart showing Campbell, CA is in a strong seller’s market with a recent turnaround after a decline.

And now –  here are some quick stats, care of my RE Report for Campbell:

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Graphic: House and yard with words Milpitas Real Estate MarketThe Milpitas real estate market has been one of the hottest in Santa Clara County, and even now, Altos Research calls it a strong seller’s market, though market action has seen some dips. That being said, June showed signs of warming. The sale to list price ratio rose back above 100%, inventory is only a drop in the bucket compared to 2019, and sales have come booming back.

The charts had shown clear warming towards spring and, despite recent cooling, Milpitas is a favorable market for the well-prepared seller, though not as hot as we might have anticipated this spring. This is in keeping with trends we are seeing throughout the San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley: well priced homes are selling close to list price, but well below peak pricing from spring 2018.

A lot has changed since the start of March. Over time we’re beginning to get a clearer view of how these changes are affecting the market, but it will be a while before we know the full impact of the pandemic on real estate sales. For now, check out my post: Coronavirus impact on real estate sales.

During the shutdown so far, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) stopped the timer on all Days on Market (DOM). Therefore these numbers will be off beginning from March 17th through around May 17th. In the data below, this will affect any numbers related to the days on market, the absorption rate, and the days of inventory. So disregard the previous months data, but June numbers are accurate.

So let’s look at some data. First up, the Altos charts using list price and active listings. It is updated automatically on a weekly basis, so check back often:

 

Altos Real-Time Market Profile, Milpitas

 

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Mary Pope-Handy
Realtor
ABR, CIPS, CRS, SRES
Sereno Group Real Estate
214 Los Gatos-Saratoga Rd
Los Gatos, CA 95030
408 204-7673
Mary (at) PopeHandy.com
License# 01153805


Selling homes in
Silicon Valley:
Santa Clara County,
San Mateo County, and
Santa Cruz County.
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Special focus on:
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Saratoga, Campbell,
Almaden Valley,
Cambrian Park.
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