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Silicon Valley real estate market predictions

Photo of Mary Pope-Handy, crystal ball, Mary's logo and the words "Mary's Predictions" - Silicon Valley real estate market predictionsSilicon Valley real estate market predictions – it’s time for a late 2023 update. As always, this is a best guess based upon the major influences that we see at play.

My Silicon Valley real estate market predictions in brief:

  • Home prices in Silicon Valley have been holding steady since early 2023 despite interest rates rising. This is contrary to the norm.
  • Inventory remains painfully and increasingly low as sellers do not want to sell. This is likely to remain the case. The bottom line is supply and demand. If demand remains strong and inventory low, prices will go up and only be tempered by the rate issue. That’s what we are seeing now. Many buyers are sitting this market out, but those who are active continue bidding prices up.
  • Many factors could swing the market one way or the other: Covid (new variant is more immune evasive), layoffs, the stock market, how much rates rise, a big quake, weather and disaster related issues, and more.
  • Home prices are up from a year ago but down from the peak. If the current trends continue, though, we’ll surpass that peak in not too long. And that is precisely my prediction.
  • The low point in pricing is usually in January, but sometimes a month earlier, and the contracts for those sales are ratified 30 days before that (so November or December).
  • Many buyers are waiting this out. I believe that they risk being priced out of the market if the typical pattern continues and we see large price jumps in the new year.

3 minute video on the current market and future predictions

Supply and Demand + Seasonal Patterns

This odd market with home prices rising despite interest rates rising comes down to highly motivated buyers fighting over a scarcity of homes for sale.  Below is a chart from MLS Listings which displays the inventory of active listings of single family homes (houses and duet homes) from January 2004 to today. Since we are close to the end of September, I am including the month to date.

Take a look:

Inventory SFH pre-pandemic and now


From about 2006 – 2012 we had the impact of the financial collapse with many foreclosures and short sales inflating the number of listings. Beginning in 2013, though, the market followed more normal seasonal patterns. Since then, most years the peak of inventory came close to 2000 houses on the market (except in 2017, when prices skyrocketed). From 2020 on, meaning the pandemic years, inventory has not gotten close to those levels.

This lack of inventory is the main issue, and the corresponding result is increasing home prices.


Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions

Almaden View Real Estate Market Conditions San Jose 95120 - photo with Mt Umunhum in backgroundThe Almaden Valley real estate market is experiencing some up and down, but remains clearly in a seller’s market. Inventory remains perpetually low, so the best homes in great locations are selling like hotcakes while buyers are passing over others that may need more work.

Almaden Valley Real Estate Market Conditions: Trends at a Glance

Next, a look at the residential real estate market statistics for Almaden, or San Jose 95120 from the Real Estate Report (a subscription that uses closed / sold data). They’re having a bit of a technical issue with their data collection, so not every number is exactly correct, however it still offers useful market analysis.

Prices are sometimes ticking up or down slightly, but overall, homes are increasing in price over time, selling fast, and well over list price. It’s a good seller’s market.

Trends At a Glance Aug 2023 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,180,000 (+0.5%) $2,169,000 $1,917,500 (+13.7%)
Average Price $2,232,720 (-3.8%) $2,319,840 $1,969,150 (+13.4%)
No. of Sales 29 (+31.8%) 22 20 (+45.0%)
Pending 15 (-28.6%) 21 27 (-44.4%)
Active 15 (-21.1%) 19 39 (-61.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 101.8% (-1.2%) 103.1% 97.8% (+4.1%)
Days on Market 15 (+12.5%) 13 21 (-30.4%)
Days of Inventory 16 (-40.1%) 26 59 (-73.5%)


And the month before:


Trends At a Glance Jul 2023 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,169,000 (+3.0%) $2,105,000 $2,275,000 (-4.7%)
Average Price $2,319,840 (+0.9%) $2,298,780 $2,566,140 (-9.6%)
No. of Sales 22 (-33.3%) 33 14 (+57.1%)
Pending 22 (-35.3%) 34 28 (-21.4%)
Active 18 (-5.3%) 19 44 (-59.1%)
Sale vs. List Price 103.1% (+1.0%) 102.0% 103.6% (-0.5%)
Days on Market 13 (-30.9%) 19 21 (-37.7%)
Days of Inventory 25 (+47.0%) 17 94 (-74.0%)



Altos Research charts for Almaden Valley real estate market, single family homes segment (more…)

The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market

The Monte Sereno real estate market is similar to Los Gatos, but distinct - Monte Sereno shares many features with Los Gatos but is a distinct cityHow is the Monte Sereno real estate market? Because the city is small, with just about 3,500 residents, there usually are few homes listed for sale or selling, and with small numbers we can get seeming volatility. This article is updated monthly with new data and analysis, so scroll down to read the latest and check back regularly. Here are a few details from the latest market update:

  • With so few sales and listings, Monte Sereno real estate data can swing quite wildly in the charts below so take it with a grain of salt.
  • This city appears to be in a seller’s market with severely low inventory, just 8 available homes at the end of August. That’s huge growth, but still a drop in the bucket for what’s needed.
  • There were just 3 closed sales and 2 pending sales, both up from this time last year.
  • August of 2022 had zero closed sales, so there isn’t much to compare the market to on that front.

There are ALMOST no condominiums or townhomes in Monte Sereno. As of August 2023, the MLS showed just 6 sales in these two categories in total – and that’s going back to 1998! And one of those, at least, appears to actually be in Los Gatos. One of the major challenges for this city is to ensure that at least some housing units are deemed “affordable.” You can find the city’s housing plan here (an online pdf):

Because this is such a small city and there’s a tiny pool of data, please also have a look at the Los Gatos real estate market post on this site.

Below is a quick market profile for the Monte Sereno real estate market. This is updated automatically weekly, so please check back often.


Monte Sereno Altos Real-Time Market Profile



Once full or orchards and farms, the Berryessa area of San Jose today is largely developed, but a few pockets of trees and agriculture do remain. Most of this district is housing, but there are also a good number of businesses. (The photo below is from a property I sold in this part of North San Jose in 2021.)

Berryessa boasts very strong commute access, including both light rail and BART as well as major auto routes. Highway 680 runs through it, and 101 and 880 are nearby. Additionally, the major airport for Silicon Valley is in close proximity, too, the Norman Y. Mineta San Jose International Airport. For the South Bay, this is one of the most accessible areas. This and the quality of many of the schools are perhaps the area’s biggest claim to fame.


Berryessa Orchard - property sold by Mary Pope-Handy

Where is Berryessa?

Berryessa is in the northern part of San Jose, set between the city of Milpitas to the north and the Alum Rock District to the south. The boundary on the east side is the East Foothills. The boundary on the west is Coyote Creek, approximately. Some resources may put it closer to Highway 101. (If you check  5 different sites, you may get 5 different answers for the boundaries on the west and south side of this district!)

Zip codes are 95131, 95132, 95133. (The MLS also includes a little of 95127, which is often thought of as Alum Rock Park.)

Another interesting, nearby area in San Jose is Japantown.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market Update

Cambrian Park Real Estate Market graphicThe Cambrian Park real estate market is in the midst of a healthy Summer market.

For those new to the area, Cambrian is most of the 95124 zip code (south of Foxworthy) and most of 95118 (west of Almaden Expressway). It borders Los Gatos, Campbell, Willow Glen, and Blossom Valley.

The Cambrian Park Real Estate Market

The chart below is from the RE Report. Home prices are up month over month and year over year. The sale to list price ratio slipped a little, but this market is immensely stronger than Aug 2022.

Trends At a Glance Aug 2023 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,787,500 (+8.3%) $1,650,000 $1,555,000 (+15.0%)
Average Price $1,848,420 (+0.6%) $1,837,030 $1,620,230 (+14.1%)
No. of Sales 46 (+24.3%) 37 43 (+7.0%)
Pending 38 (+2.7%) 37 71 (-46.5%)
Active 29 (+20.8%) 24 46 (-37.0%)
Sale vs. List Price 106.9% (-1.5%) 108.6% 99.9% (+7.0%)
Days on Market 10 (-18.2%) 13 22 (-53.0%)
Days of Inventory 19 (-2.8%) 19 32 (-41.1%)




Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends

Los Gatos real estate market graphic with home near downtownAs of today, Sept 13, 2023, the Los Gatos real estate market in 95030 & 95032 has gained some inventory, but pending and closed sales are both strong, and the sale to list price ratio is up. The homes that are nicely remodeled and priced aggressively are selling quickly.

Numbers for today (pulled from the MLS), going back 30 days from yesterday:

  • 47 houses for sale
  • 24 are contingent or sale pending
  • 17 have closed in the last 30 days
    • average home size 2,687 SF
    • average lot size 21,467
    • average days on market = 37
    • average sale price $3,246,294
    • median sale price $2,680,000
    • average sale to list price ratio 102%

Trends at a Glance from the RE Report

The numbers below analyze data gathered during the first week of each month and cover real estate statistics from the month prior in Los Gatos 95030 & 95032 (all areas / school districts), or MLS “area 16”. See the full RE Report here.

These numbers never line up exactly with the MLS figures, but the data trends line up:


Trends At a Glance Aug 2023 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $3,200,000 (+13.2%) $2,828,000 $2,675,000 (+19.6%)
Average Price $3,386,360 (-1.0%) $3,422,090 $2,835,440 (+19.4%)
No. of Sales 25 (+47.1%) 17 36 (-30.6%)
Pending 21 (-16.0%) 25 45 (-53.3%)
Active 41 (+57.7%) 26 46 (-10.9%)
Sale vs. List Price 102.4% (+0.5%) 101.9% 98.4% (+4.1%)
Days on Market 32 (+0.1%) 32 37 (-14.8%)
Days of Inventory 49 (+7.2%) 46 38 (+28.3%)

Similar charts for the Los Gatos Mountains and the condo market are further down in this article.

Los Gatos real estate market statistics: multi year data by month

Here is some Los Gatos real estate market data that I pulled directly from the MLS today.

Inventory of available homes for sale in Los Gatos 95030 and Los Gatos 95032

A quick glance at the last few years suggests that this inventory remains low by a wide margin.


Inventory of Los Gatos homes for sale - single family


Mountain View CA real estate market trends and statistics

Mountain View real estate market trends - by Mary Pope-Handy and Clair Handy - blue house with wordsThe Mountain View CA real estate market was a strong market and heating up in August, especially for single family homes.

Quick summary on the realty market in Mountain View, CA

  • The average sale price for houses is up month-over-month, but down year-over-year.
  • The median sale price is also up monthly and down annually.
  • Days on market held steady at 13, lightning fast turnover in under 2 weeks
  • The sales to list price ratio soared to 106.7% in August, up from 104.3% in July, almost reaching the same level as June (106.8%), but not quite this spring’s peak (107.7% in May). It’s a strong seller’s market!

Mountain View CA real estate market trends at a glance

First let’s have a look at the Real Estate Report for residential sales data. Home prices are up month over month and down year over year. Overall, there hasn’t been much change in the charts since last month with inventory and sales moving along at a steady clip. It is a much stronger seller’s market than it was this time last year.


Trends At a Glance Aug 2023 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $2,625,000 (+6.7%) $2,460,000 $2,850,000 (-7.9%)
Average Price $2,875,570 (+11.8%) $2,572,380 $2,941,590 (-2.2%)
No. of Sales 26 (+23.8%) 21 17 (+52.9%)
Pending 20 (+5.3%) 19 27 (-25.9%)
Active 12 (+9.1%) 11 19 (-36.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 106.7% (+2.4%) 104.3% 101.1% (+5.6%)
Days on Market 13 (-2.2%) 13 19 (-31.4%)
Days of Inventory 14 (-11.9%) 16 34 (-58.7%)


Mountain View CA real estate market trends and data by neighborhood or district


Cupertino Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics

Cupertino - view from Ridge VineyardsHow’s the Cupertino real estate market?

In July the average single family home prices rose in Cupertino and are above where they were a year ago. The sale price to list price rose, also – it’s increasingly harder for home buyers as both interest rates and prices have been rising.

The market may vary by price point or exactly location somewhat. For instance, the Monta Vista neighborhood may sell differently from areas in Cupertino closer to Sunnyvale or Santa Clara.

Here are the most recent real estate statistics, via our Cupertino Real Estate Report. The market is HOT!

Cupertino Real Estate market – Closed Sales and Trends at a Glance

(If you’re viewing the chart below on a mobile device, please swipe horizontally to see all columns.)

This is a very strong seller’s market, as the data below makes clear.

Trends at a Glance

Trends At a Glance Aug 2023 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $3,105,000 (+0.4%) $3,094,000 $2,750,000 (+12.9%)
Average Price $3,321,440 (+1.4%) $3,276,000 $2,786,120 (+19.2%)
No. of Sales 18 (0.0%) 18 31 (-41.9%)
Pending 26 (+73.3%) 15 25 (+4.0%)
Active 13 (-35.0%) 20 28 (-53.6%)
Sale vs. List Price 111.8% (+6.1%) 105.4% 102.6% (+8.9%)
Days on Market 12 (-36.5%) 19 22 (-45.9%)
Days of Inventory 22 (-35.0%) 33 27 (-20.0%)



Cupertino real estate market via the Altos Research weekly charts (they use LIST prices, not sale prices):



Los Gatos Mountains 95033 Real Estate Market

Damp road in a redwood forest similar lo the Los Gatos MoountainsThe real estate market in the Los Gatos Mountains is very different from the “in town” Los Gatos housing market and really deserves its own separate treatment. The mountain area includes areas both in Santa Clara County and also Santa Cruz County, but the data here will reflect only the area within Santa Clara County. Both sides may have a Los Gatos mailing address with the 95033 zip code.

The Real Estate Report for the Los Gatos Mountains is updated each month with the RE Report info, but the Altos Research live chart automatically updates weekly, so please stop by often to get updated information.

(If you are viewing this on a mobile device, the table below will scroll if you swipe it.)

Trends at a Glance: Los Gatos Mountains 95033

Check out the FULL Los Gatos Mountains RE Report by using this link.

We are seeing softening in the market in the mountains.

Trends At a Glance Aug 2023 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,327,500 (-4.0%) $1,383,500 $1,412,500 (-6.0%)
Average Price $1,379,640 (-12.8%) $1,581,580 $1,540,690 (-10.5%)
No. of Sales 10 (-16.7%) 12 13 (-23.1%)
Pending (-30.8%) 13 (+50.0%)
Active 46 (+43.8%) 32 28 (+64.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 98.7% (-0.9%) 99.6% 97.8% (+0.9%)
Days on Market 33 (-11.6%) 37 42 (-22.6%)
Days of Inventory 138 (+72.5%) 80 65 (+113.6%)


And the month before:

Trends At a Glance Jul 2023 Previous Month Year-over-Year
Median Price $1,383,500 (+6.4%) $1,300,000 $1,125,000 (+23.0%)
Average Price $1,581,580 (-11.3%) $1,782,730 $1,383,220 (+14.3%)
No. of Sales 12 (+9.1%) 11 (+33.3%)
Pending 13 (-31.6%) 19 14 (-7.1%)
Active 32 (-3.0%) 33 28 (+14.3%)
Sale vs. List Price 99.6% (+2.0%) 97.7% 104.4% (-4.6%)
Days on Market 37 (-4.7%) 39 26 (+43.8%)
Days of Inventory 80 (-8.0%) 87 93 (-14.3%)



95033 Real Estate Market – Los Gatos Mountains

Each week, my subscription to the Altos Research Report for the Los Gatos Mountains is automatically updated. Click on the link to view it, or subscribe if you’d like an update emailed to you regularly. You can also click on the link to check other nearby zip codes. Some of 95120 or 95032 can be in the rural areas, too, so check a zip code map in case the area that interests you is closer to Mt Umunhum, over Saratoga, or some other location.

As of the most recent Altos update this market is a mild seller’s market.


The mountain communities are many and diverse, so issues in one area, such as too much inventory or not enough listings, may be the opposite somewhere else.


Updating the Campbell Real Estate Market

Tudor style house on graphic that says - How's the Campbell real estate market?How is the Campbell real estate market? Campbell is in a strong seller’s market that has finally outstripped this time last year. This article, updated monthly, offers data and analysis on the residential real estate market within this popular Silicon Valley community. Here are a few details from the latest update on Campbell’s single family housing market:

  • Inventory is still well below normal. Smaller pools of data can cause more dramatic swings in these statistics, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.
  • The average sales to list price ratio for homes sold last month dropped to 106.2% of asking – that’s still red hot, and completely overtaking last year’s August numbers.
  • The price gap between 2022 and 2023 has flipped with this August average and median prices up +10.0% and +11.6% from last year respectively.
  • Average days on market sped to 9 and market absorption sped to just 19 days. The best homes are being snatched up quickly.
  • August saw closed sales more than double month-over-month with a slight increase in pending sales and a massive drop in active inventory.

The market in this popular west valley city is red hot overall!

A quick look at the cost of starter homes in Campbell today

To supplement the info we normally provide here, let’s take a look at what it costs to buy a starter home in Campbell. For our study, a starter home is defined simply as a home with no more than 1,500 SqFt of living space. We only had 5 houses that match this description close in all of August, here are the averages for those homes:

  • # of sales – 5
  • Home size – 1,256 SqFt
  • Lot size – 6,644 SqFt
  • Days on market – 4
  • Average list price – $1,453,600
  • Average sale price – $1,563,000
  • Sale to list price ratio – 107% (minimum was 94%, maximum was 117%)
  • Age of home – 62 years
  • Price per SF – $1,251.96

And for move up houses with 1,500 – 2,000 SqFt:

  • # of sales – 13
  • Home size – 1,674 SqFt
  • Lot size – 7,636 SqFt
  • Days on market – 10
  • Average list price – $1,718,660
  • Average sale price – $1,823,373
  • Sale to list price ratio – 106% (minimum was 97%, maximum was 114%)
  • Age of home – 66 years
  • Price per SqFt – $1,091.46 (it is typical that a larger sized home will have a smaller price per SqFt than a smaller one, and it’s the reason why when pricing using comparable sales it’s ideal to stay within 10% of the home size)

The Campbell, CA Real Estate Market

It’s hard to predict what’s coming next, especially since Silicon Valley real estate is connected to the global economy and many buyers rely on stocks and mortgage loans to finance their purchase. On top of that, we’re emerging from an already wild few years!

If you’re selling a well prepared, beautifully staged, and aggressively priced house, you’ll likely see multiple offers on your home for sale. We’ve been seeing more bidding wars, but not with overbids quite as high as last spring. Competition for homes has undoubtebly waned from it’s peak as buyers financial power shrank with rising interest rates. That said, with even fewer homes being listed this year there’s still far more demand than there is inventory, especially for a move-in ready home!

Desperate and worn out buyers want to get their foot in the door before they are priced out of the market altogether by either climbing interest rates or rising home prices.

Don’t expect a balanced market any time soon – California still has a severe housing shortage and buyers are still clamoring to get property!

Here’s a quick view of the Campbell real estate market stats from Altos Research, using list prices (not sales price) which updates automatically about once per week:


Campbell Altos Real-Time Market Profile

The Altos chart is showing Campbell, CA single family homes in a strong seller’s market with a recent decline in market action paired with steadily low inventory. Inventory remains well below typical, and these few homes continue to sell quickly.

And now –  here are some quick stats, pulled from the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) through the RE Report: